- ASTS combines carrier alignment with the first reported ground-to-satellite handoff; the author argues SpaceX lacks comparable U.S. carrier cooperation and technical proof.
- A formal AST Defense unit, 3,900+ patent claims, and airborne, maritime, and ground applications expand the author’s government-revenue and defense-market thesis.
- Blacklift targets five BlueBirds per launch, using Firefly’s production-ready Miranda engine; the ~$1.3B commitment addresses long-term launch capacity, with first flight targeted for late 2028.
- The author remains long despite $4B+ capital needs, production at 1.7–2 versus a six-satellite monthly target, and near-term dependence on SpaceX and other launch providers.
Investment pitches
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70 78 - ASTS’s year-end intermediate-coverage beta matters less for subscriber revenue than for triggering Japan’s J-LEO funding through Rakuten Saikyo’s planned Q4 2026 launch.
- The thesis is that operational milestones—not signing—release Japan’s up-to-$1 billion commitment; the author estimates Rakuten’s launch could unlock $400–700 million in 2027, without dilution or debt.
- That capital could subsidize Japan-flagged satellites otherwise funded through dilution: AST has roughly 389 million diluted shares versus 100 million post-de-SPAC, alongside $3.0 billion of debt principal.
- Initial AST revenue may be only $5–40 million, while funding timing remains unproven; Q3 commentary and Rakuten pull-forward signals are key. The author is long ASTS.
80 - ASTS’s thesis is that D2D becomes a protected duopoly: SpaceX serves its ecosystem, while ASTS supplies carriers and sovereign programs; the stock near $37 prices a winner-take-all threat.
- AT&T and Verizon backing, the European four-MNO LOI, Rakuten, and 55-plus MNO partnerships support an addressable base above 3 billion subscribers.
- Author’s revised framework values ASTS at $75–115 billion EV, or roughly $195–295 per share, based on 150 million payers at $3.50 monthly wholesale ARPU and 60% EBITDA margins.
- The author is long, targeting a re-rating over 18–36 months as partnerships, spectrum awards, launches, and government revenue progress; operational delays or an aggressive SpaceX consumer-wireless pivot remain key risks.
64 - ASTS at $41.87 and roughly $16B market cap is priced as a binary SpaceX win; the author argues its October 19 LOI with four major European carriers points to a carrier-backed D2D duopoly.
- The coalition offers ASTS distribution and sovereign alignment, while the author contrasts SpaceX’s estimated $90–140B build with ASTS’s roughly $3B remaining constellation spend, $3.7B cash, $1.3B backlog, and 1.625% debt raise.
- The author is long but still waits for execution: contract flow and BlueBird launches toward the 45-satellite continuous-coverage threshold—including 15 satellites soon in orbit—are the key validation milestones.
78 - EOS.AX's £370m (~A$700m) Kuwait counter-drone award equals ~29% of market cap and exceeds its prior combined order book, yet the stock fell on pre-priced news and execution concerns.
- Author argues MARSS/NiDAR transforms EOS from component supplier into prime integrator: the hardware-agnostic command layer controls qualification and four-year services, creating stickier economics and a GCC reference-architecture flywheel.
- Potential re-rating milestones are the £74m advance payment, export licenses, first FY27 revenue disclosure, partner announcements, and a second GCC prime win; H2 guidance is A$360–400m against A$1.5bn pro forma backlog.
- Performance-bond, integration, uncapped-damages and timing risks remain; the author is long and sees upside if software/C4ISR multiples replace hardware-contractor valuation.
66 - At 333p, FTC remains roughly 30% below its recent high after a 165% rebound from the low; the author sees compounding demand signals.
- SpaceX targets near-daily Starship launches and 26 V3 satellites per flight; Filtronic’s £47.3M GaN amplifier contract covers these next-generation satellites.
- Orbital compute is planned to expand from 1.4GW of Q2 nameplate capacity to 20GW by end-2027, while Starlink Mobile claims over 100x first-generation capacity—implying greater RF content.
- SpaceX revenue concentration fell from 83% to 68% while SpaceX grew; a third order from an unnamed US customer supports diversification, though Kuiper remains speculation. Author is long FTC.
63 - Author argues SpaceX’s Grain 800 MHz acquisition clarifies Starlink Mobile as a vertically integrated US carrier, making ASTS the only credible MNO-aligned D2D platform at scale.
- The businesses target different customers: SpaceX acquires consumers, while ASTS supplies satellite capacity to MNOs and earns revenue share from their subscribers. The author sees room for both globally.
- ASTS has an estimated 18–24-month window before Starlink Mobile reaches commercial scale, which the author places around 2028–29; its path depends on reaching 16 satellites soon, 45 for continuous service, and advancing MNO and government deals.
- The author is long and bullish, but production of BlueBird satellites, launch cadence, and partnership execution must turn this strategic scarcity into value; markets may remain bearish short term.