- BAT trades at a $170M fully circulating market cap, or 1.7x Brave’s reported $100M+ annualized revenue; the browser has 126M monthly users, 55M DAUs and 2.5B monthly searches.
- Roadmap 4.0 adds a native wallet, BravePay and a rewards card; buybacks funded by a share of net revenue from those products could create token demand, but the percentage is undisclosed.
- Author does not underwrite a specific value: products are not live and the card has no known launch date. A return to last December’s $420M market cap would imply 2.4x; failure likely means underperformance.
Investment pitches
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71 65 - Author’s highest-conviction long-term thesis is BTC repricing much closer to gold’s market cap, from a current ~$1.7T base.
- Gold’s 1971–80 institutional adoption cycle rose 24x nominally over 8.4 years despite a 47% bear market; the author sees BTC as scarce digital capital repricing against fiat amid debt and inflation fears.
- ETF cumulative flows are only 8% below peak while BTC is ~30% below its peak, suggesting a sticky institutional base; the thesis is measured over decades, with diminishing returns already consensus.