- Farming is not the thesis: PAPER needs papertrade to become a compelling exchange, especially for gamblers who choose it over Binance; farming itself has no economic value.
- Author is more bullish but calls PAPER a very risky trade: modest trading edge is offset by high fees, and returns depend on PAPER’s value, staking rewards, and Jez changing rules.
- The proposed path to product-market fit is casino rakeback: returning roughly 50% of losses over time could attract degenerate gamblers; watch whether tokenomics increasingly favor recent losers.
- Bootstrap rewards are unsustainable: $57m in week one and even $1m/day would dilute supply 1.9x annually. Attack capital, non-consensual perps, and operator rule changes remain central risks.
Investment pitches
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