- Google executed credit-support agreements for debt financing behind WULF’s ~$19B, 401-MW Anthropic lease at Justified, removing the previously identified investment-grade-credit overhang.
- Author argues Alphabet-backed debt should price closer to Google’s credit than WULF’s, lowering interest expense and equity required per MW; every 100bp could retain tens of millions annually.
- Fluor’s definitive EPC on a GMP basis, open-book reporting and performance protections shift construction risk; phased service runs from late 2027 through Q2 2028.
- Still conditional: support’s size and form, potential warrants, and the final GMP cap are undisclosed; the debt remains unfinanced. Author is long WULF.
Investment pitches
filter:
78 77 - Author remains long NBIS and WULF: contracted Microsoft/Meta capacity for NBIS and Anthropic/Fluidstack-backed capacity for WULF were not affected by the election.
- The key levers are Fed and credit-market conditions, executive agencies, and permitting; permanent 100% bonus depreciation also remains locked through at least January 2029.
- The real bear case is state and local electricity politics, especially NBIS's PJM exposure; WULF has Kentucky PSC-approved power terms including $100M of customer benefits.
- October's selloff reflected weak tech results and tighter financing, not midterms. WULF reports November 6 and NBIS November 12; NBIS's 2027 pricing still depends on compute supply.
75 - Author sees NBIS as a potential shakeout winner, citing a $3.5B senior secured facility and $5.75B convertible offering as evidence of expansion funding access.
- Prepayments appeared in roughly 70% of Q2 deals, covering 50–60% of associated capex; over $40B of investment-grade contracts could support asset-backed financing.
- Integrated infrastructure, training and inference, a Platinum ClusterMAX rating, NVIDIA collaboration and Palantir’s preferred-partner role could support premium pricing and enterprise demand, though revenue conversion remains unproven.
- The thesis depends on sustained AI demand, timely capacity delivery and attractive returns; the Citi facility matures in 364 days, making refinancing a key risk.
88 - Gartner’s >80% forecast counts providers, including acquisitions, not capacity or revenue; the author argues it says little about leading neoclouds’ survival.
- Author’s accrual math lowers required 2030 revenue to $4.3–5.1T from Gartner’s $8.5T, leaving a $0.7–1.5T gap; ~70% of capex remains productive.
- For $NBIS, $8B cash, $5.75B of August converts, $37.5B backlog and Meta’s up-to-$15B capacity commitment support the author’s 75–85% independence estimate.
- But Q2 GAAP EBIT was -$176M; compounding depends on 2028 pricing and financing the next ~$200B, with second-half quarters needing ~$1.0–1.2B revenue versus $582M in Q2.