- SpaceX's AI-linked valuation is under review: shares fell 9.1% to $123.62 on Nov. 5, while five-year CDS reached ~284bp; Bloomberg questions whether future cash generation supports the valuation.
- Reported 2026 Jan–Sep operating cash flow of ~$13.1bn versus ~$48.1bn capex implies ~$35bn simple FCF deficit; a proposed $40bn GPU finance lease adds obligations, while Customer B contributed 34.5% of Q3 revenue.
- The long-term case is cross-business compounding: Starlink, Starship, Starshield, mobile, AI and cloud may share infrastructure, but lower launch costs and other synergies remain unproven.
- Author keeps a 5–10-year thesis, citing ~$5.2bn Connectivity operating profit and ~$89.9bn cash/securities at September-end; no rush to add. AI margins, customer concentration, Starship reuse, dilution/debt, and Morgan Stanley's 2031 FCF-breakeven forecast are key tests.
Investment pitches
filter:
74 65 - The author maintains a US-only portfolio, arguing that US-listed multinationals provide exposure to global revenue and growth without holding multiple national markets.
- Diversifying across AI, aerospace, defense, biotech, and semiconductors may reduce dependence on any one business driver more effectively than owning similar technology stocks across countries.
- The strategy remains exposed to US valuations, rates, currency, policy, and concentrated growth-sector risk; the author will stay focused on US equities unless better opportunities emerge elsewhere.
66 - CBRS has fallen about 69% to roughly $109, while Q2 2026 core revenue rose 103% year over year to about $210m, AI-cloud revenue nearly quadrupled, and RPO reached $25.4bn.
- The valuation case depends on execution: if 2027 revenue grows at the company’s projected pace, the forward P/S could fall to about 9.5x; otherwise, the stock may remain expensive.
- AMD collaboration could expand Cerebras’s role alongside other chips, but customer adoption, usage, and resulting margins must convert technical potential into earnings.
- The author remains bullish long term, plans to hold and considers adding, but says the bottom is unconfirmed; key checks include OpenAI data-center timing, contract conversion, margins, capex, dilution, lockup supply, and Q3 results.
67 - CBRS targets faster AI inference by reducing data movement; rising agent workloads could expand its market alongside NVIDIA, not require replacing it.
- OpenAI infrastructure work and roughly $25.4 billion of announced backlog support demand, but revenue depends on data-center delivery, utilization, power costs, operating expenses, and capex.
- The author remains positive, holds CBRS, and awaits better entry points; the $500–1,000 three-year scenario requires exceptional revenue growth, margins, and valuation, with execution and cash flow still unproven.
76 - SPCX’s long-term case rests on vertically integrating launch, satellites, and connectivity: Q2 revenue rose 92% to $7.814B, while Starlink reached 12M subscribers—but ARPU fell from $85 to $66.
- Starship’s first orbital deployment and AI revenue growth of 247% to $2.561B support the upside, but reusable-launch economics remain unproven and AI posted a ~$1.257B operating loss.
- Capital intensity is the main test: H1 operating cash flow of $3.466B versus $28.476B capex implies roughly $25B negative FCF; reported $100B liquidity does not remove funding-cost risk.
- At $146.03 and ~$1.98T market cap, the author rejects the fall from $225.64 as proof of cheapness and will not add before earnings and unlocks create potential, not certain, selling pressure.
81 - LPTH’s core thesis is supply-chain-driven: U.S.-made BlackDiamond could replace some germanium infrared optics, while a September CLEAR prototype agreement funds government testing—not qualification or mass production.
- Assemblies/modules reached 44% of FY2026 revenue versus 23% prior-year, as LPTH expands from lenses into G5 cameras and complete systems; acquisitions mean reported growth is not purely organic.
- Backlog reached $110.9m (+197% YoY); a repeat C-UAS customer added $6.3m in October, taking post-July orders above $19m. The test is delivery and cash conversion.
- Author remains invested, not blindly bullish: at $7.66, LPTH was ~7.5x FY2026 sales; detector lead times have reached 10+ months and operating cash flow was -$10.2m despite $4.2m adjusted EBITDA. Continued dilution or failed conversion would change the thesis.
84 - LPTH's price has fallen, but FY2026 results still show operating progress: revenue reached $71.7M (+92.7%), gross margin ~36%, adjusted EBITDA +$4.2M, and Assemblies & Modules grew $8.4M→$31.9M.
- Backlog rose 197% to $110.9M, including $85.6M of customer-requested deliveries over 12 months; $11M and $13M C-UAS/defense follow-on orders support demand, but conversion remains unproven.
- The market now wants commercial proof: NGSRI production is delayed, the Army is considering an alternate interceptor, and no second named production customer is disclosed across seven missile platforms; short float is ~23%.
- Recent issuance of 3.571M shares at $14 raised ~$50M and cash to $93.2M but increased float. Author owns 18,300 shares and may add; thesis hinges on backlog conversion, gross margin and operating cash flow.