- NBIS’s 2027 plans appear funded despite tighter debt markets: most cash is raised, while customer prepayments should cover much of the remainder, per the CEO.
- GPU rental prices are rising; author estimates current $35m+/MW deals could pay back in roughly one year versus 22 months for prior $20–25m/MW deals. Deploying 1 GW next year could create substantial equity value.
- PESI may capture most 200E/200W grouting work if Ecology approves 200E after dual-melter testing and production evidence; throughput is rising from ~45K to potentially 60K+ gallons monthly.
- The author expects limited near-term PESI results but a Q4 financial inflection as Hanford shipments ramp, with stronger acceleration in 2027 and beyond.
Investment pitches
filter:
75 76 - HNRG’s $600M Turtle Creek term loan costs 11.5%+, creating NPV doubts; author expects refinancing near 6–7% once contracted, supported by Merom’s ~95% contracted capacity through 2035.
- Author calculates Turtle Creek needs >$650/MWd for meaningful NPV accretion versus the latest $550/MWd deal pricing; gas generation’s buyer universe is reportedly 4x broader than coal’s.
- TransAlta’s $1B purchase of 318MW of Colorado peakers implies ~$690/MWd from expected $80M annual EBITDA, supporting similar or higher pricing in tight MISO markets.
- The thesis remains conditional on management securing an accretive deal; scarce accredited MISO capacity and Turtle Creek’s speed to market provide negotiating leverage.