- Author views the approximately $6.3B Binance hack as a black swan; BTC’s roughly 5% decline to $76.4K signals underlying strength.
- Panic selling produced 36,600 BTC of underwater short-term-holder exchange deposits, $1.115B in realized losses, extreme fear, and capitulation-like technical readings.
- The author remains long and bullish while $76K holds; two to three daily closes below could expose $67K–$69K, while reclaiming $80K–$82K would restore bullish structure.
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79 61 - Author views BTC’s $79K–$81K region as a local bottom after the $88K correction, targeting roughly $94K.
- Treasury and U.S. spot ETF average entries near $80K–$81.5K, rebuilt Binance bids near $80K, and slower profit-taking support the accumulation thesis.
- Author attributes current pressure to retail selling, futures shorts, and short-term holders, while longer-term holders resist selling coins bought at $60K–$70K.
- Author holds spot bought at $60K–$64K and longs averaging $80,400; a daily close above EMA50 would strengthen the setup, with October 28’s FOMC decision ahead.