- The author is selectively constructive, preferring PBR/A: its 12.1% discount to PBR provides 13.8% more yield for an identical distribution per ADR, subject to liquidity, mandates and a potentially persistent class discount.
- Operational support is tangible: UBS estimates September attributable production at 2.93m bpd, up 16% year over year; Búzios ramp-up, P-80/P-82 and higher Mero ownership support growth, though declines, commissioning and subsea integrity remain dependencies.
- The thesis hinges on cash reaching minorities: subsidy receivables, fuel-policy intervention, export taxes, leases and $70.8bn gross debt near the $75bn policy ceiling can erode distributions; November 10 results should show whether cash conversion improves.
Investment pitches
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89 81 - NVDA remains in a long-term uptrend but sits roughly 50% above its last base breakout, with no current base or pivot; the author calls it a hold for owners, not a buy.
- Bullish structure persists: price is 15.2% above the rising 50-week average, while no climax week, heavy-volume stalling, or distribution signal indicates an immediate sell setup.
- Author assigns 55% to sideways consolidation above 220, 30% to a pullback toward the 50-week near 199, and 15% to reversal; a weekly close below 198.99 on expanding volume invalidates the bullish thesis.