Tess Cameron

Tess Cameron × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Yaron Werber

HORIZON was “completely negative” despite pelacarsen reducing Lp(a) 80%, challenging biomarker shortcuts as Amgen fell 10% on read-through.Novartis’s Avidity failure less than a year after the $12 billion acquisition drove Artisan’s sales cut of about $5 billion and EPS CAGR to 4%.Dyne’s 25% placebo-adjusted CASI-22 splice correction and Roivant’s 56% PVR reduction set up catalysts, while endpoint and outcome risks remain.

Chris Garabedian × Graig Suvannavejh × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron

Biotech’s tape is “healthy but discerning,” with 19 Nasdaq issues year-to-date and the XBI outperforming, yet market-neutral shorts have struggled as heavily shorted names such as Crinetics and Apogee were acquired.Tenex and Sionna failures show how sharply negative data is punished, while MindMed’s durable Phase 3 LSD effect and Belite’s February 12, 2027 PDUFA create catalysts amid continuing diligence and competitive risks.

Yaron Werber × Tess Cameron × SamFazeli × Brian Skorney

AI is driving biotech’s tape: SMH is up 66% year-to-date versus IBB at 1% and XBI at 8%, while BIOSECURE and expanded COINS-style screening could redirect China dealmaking toward Europe.Ivonescimab cut death risk 34% in HARMONi-6, while daraxonrasib extended survival to 13.2 versus 6.7 months; SERENA-4 and CDK4 readouts, translatability, toxicity, and in vivo CAR-T durability warrant monitoring.

Sam Fazeli × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron

Bristol Myers’ BMS–Hengrui deal gives Hengrui options to co-develop select assets and conduct certain commercialization activities globally, alongside up to $950M in payments and $15.2B potential value.China’s low-cost, high-speed innovation creates licensing opportunity now, but three-to-five-year global-commercialization plans could shift value capture toward Chinese developers; REGENXBIO’s held DMD filing and Biogen’s Phase 3 tau decision keep precedent and capital allocation in focus.

Chris Garabedian × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron × Adam Feuerstein

XBI strength, Kylera’s IPO above $625M before the shoe, and fresh S-1 and PIPE activity suggest financing is reopening, though the index now favors larger, liquid companies.Revolution Medicines’ 0.4 overall-survival hazard ratio in second-line pancreatic cancer and $2B raise could fund commercialization, while Travere’s proteinuria-based FSGS approval despite eGFR underperformance leaves Vertex’s high-risk enaxopin Phase 3 regulatory bar unresolved.

Sam Fazeli × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney × Tess Cameron

Biotech enters JPM week with XBI at 125.53, as specialist-backed companies with fundamental progress—not indiscriminate buying—drove 2025 returns.Merck’s rumored $28–32bn Revolution Medicines bid could bring cash into the sector despite a rich EV/sales multiple, while Aktis’s $318m data-free IPO shows financing appetite; CMS MFN policy, anti-drug-antibody diligence, and upcoming clinical data remain risks.

Tess Cameron × Brian Skorney × Sam Fazeli × Yaron Werber × Luba Greenwood

The XBI’s return to 104–105 coincides with roughly $81B of biotech M&A through September, as pharma companies seek pipeline.Novo Nordisk’s agreement to pay up to $5.2B for Akero highlights efruxifermin’s efficacy, while GI side effects, dosing, and bone mineral density remain unresolved.

Chris Garabedian × Tess Cameron × Eric Schmidt × Sam Fazeli × Brad Loncar

Financing showed signs of reopening: LB Pharmaceuticals’ IPO rose and held, while Maze, Rapport, CAMP4 and Amylyx raised, though Eric Schmidt urged caution.A drafted China-biotech executive order could mandate CFIUS review of licensing deals and make FDA ignore China data, potentially freezing deals and pushing pharma beyond U.S. biotech.Revolution Medicines’ 55% first-line pancreatic ORR is promising; PFS and duration remain pending.

Chris Garabedian × Daphne Zohar × Sam Fazeli × Tess Cameron × Paul Matteis × Tim Opler

XBI remains down YTD, but this year's IPO cohort is up 50–60% and follow-ons work, signaling a fund-specific recovery amid scarce private capital.China biotech rose almost 40% last month on rumored "$500 million plus" deals, while copycat competition discounts exposed US smid-caps; FDA subjectivity remains a tail risk as KalVista's approval is "very likely" despite an inferential CRL report.

Daphne Zohar × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber

Biotech’s market plumbing looked substantially worse than its fundamentals, with 16 of 18 2024 IPOs below issue price and a 61% median decline despite companies advancing assets and becoming cheaper.Pfizer signaled BD capacity of “10 to 15” this year and higher next year, while Jazz’s roughly $935 million Chimerix acquisition showed how focused assets can create value through existing infrastructure.The setup favors differentiated drugs and targeted consolidation, but launch-related patent-cliff skepticism, negative-enterprise-value cash burn, and uncertain vaccine policy remain key risks to monitor.