Tess Cameron

Tess Cameron × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Yaron Werber

HORIZON was “completely negative” despite pelacarsen reducing Lp(a) 80%, challenging biomarker shortcuts as Amgen fell 10% on read-through.Novartis’s Avidity failure less than a year after the $12 billion acquisition drove Artisan’s sales cut of about $5 billion and EPS CAGR to 4%.Dyne’s 25% placebo-adjusted CASI-22 splice correction and Roivant’s 56% PVR reduction set up catalysts, while endpoint and outcome risks remain.

Chris Garabedian × Graig Suvannavejh × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron

Biotech’s tape is “healthy but discerning,” with 19 Nasdaq issues year-to-date and the XBI outperforming, yet market-neutral shorts have struggled as heavily shorted names such as Crinetics and Apogee were acquired.Tenex and Sionna failures show how sharply negative data is punished, while MindMed’s durable Phase 3 LSD effect and Belite’s February 12, 2027 PDUFA create catalysts amid continuing diligence and competitive risks.

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

XBI’s rise into the mid-150s is backed by fundamentals, though an AI reversal could create cross-sector downside risk.Josh Schimmer’s regression found an R² of just 0.2 between XBI performance and deal value; AbbVie’s $10.9B Apogee purchase instead highlights replicability and order of entry.FDA normalization and continued China-originated financings are catalysts, while restrictions that compress biotech returns remain a risk.

Yaron Werber × Tess Cameron × SamFazeli × Brian Skorney

AI is driving biotech’s tape: SMH is up 66% year-to-date versus IBB at 1% and XBI at 8%, while BIOSECURE and expanded COINS-style screening could redirect China dealmaking toward Europe.Ivonescimab cut death risk 34% in HARMONi-6, while daraxonrasib extended survival to 13.2 versus 6.7 months; SERENA-4 and CDK4 readouts, translatability, toxicity, and in vivo CAR-T durability warrant monitoring.

Sam Fazeli × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron

Bristol Myers’ BMS–Hengrui deal gives Hengrui options to co-develop select assets and conduct certain commercialization activities globally, alongside up to $950M in payments and $15.2B potential value.China’s low-cost, high-speed innovation creates licensing opportunity now, but three-to-five-year global-commercialization plans could shift value capture toward Chinese developers; REGENXBIO’s held DMD filing and Biogen’s Phase 3 tau decision keep precedent and capital allocation in focus.

Chris Garabedian × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron × Adam Feuerstein

XBI strength, Kylera’s IPO above $625M before the shoe, and fresh S-1 and PIPE activity suggest financing is reopening, though the index now favors larger, liquid companies.Revolution Medicines’ 0.4 overall-survival hazard ratio in second-line pancreatic cancer and $2B raise could fund commercialization, while Travere’s proteinuria-based FSGS approval despite eGFR underperformance leaves Vertex’s high-risk enaxopin Phase 3 regulatory bar unresolved.

Tess Cameron × Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Adam Feuerstein

Roughly 200 tracked public biotechs trade at negative enterprise value, while Taysha’s revival below cash contrasts with Cargo Therapeutics’ failed experiment and raises capital-allocation questions.Solid reported about 110% average microdystrophin expression in three Duchenne patients and planned a midyear FDA discussion, but its $200 million pre-data financing at $4 per share raised pricing concerns.

Sam Fazeli × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney × Tess Cameron

Biotech enters JPM week with XBI at 125.53, as specialist-backed companies with fundamental progress—not indiscriminate buying—drove 2025 returns.Merck’s rumored $28–32bn Revolution Medicines bid could bring cash into the sector despite a rich EV/sales multiple, while Aktis’s $318m data-free IPO shows financing appetite; CMS MFN policy, anti-drug-antibody diligence, and upcoming clinical data remain risks.

Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

Biotech M&A is setting records across stages: Alkermes appears to have won Avadel at $2.4B, while J&J paid $3B for Phase 1 Halda, the highest-priced Phase 1 acquisition ever per Tess Cameron.Competition is intensifying as pharma prices in 2026-27 patent cliffs, but 82% of surveyed companies worry about FDA function; early-program delays could last two or three years, while falling drug prices make volume response a key watchpoint.

Tess Cameron × Brian Skorney × Sam Fazeli × Yaron Werber × Luba Greenwood

The XBI’s return to 104–105 coincides with roughly $81B of biotech M&A through September, as pharma companies seek pipeline.Novo Nordisk’s agreement to pay up to $5.2B for Akero highlights efruxifermin’s efficacy, while GI side effects, dosing, and bone mineral density remain unresolved.