Sam Fazeli

Daphne Zohar × Eric Schmidt × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s 80% XBI rally is structurally M&A-led, with roughly $138B announced against $59B of equity issuance, compressing premiums and leaving no preclinical IPOs.Moderna’s melanoma vaccine suggests a durable trade-secret franchise, while BioNTech’s colorectal failure leaves tumor context unresolved; daraxonrasib’s $478K price and frontline label, and ivonescimab’s HARMONi-3 in 6–9 months, set the key monitoring points.

Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Jake Becraft

Biotech’s washout is intensifying: 16 of 18 2024 IPOs trade below issue at a median 61% decline, despite Jake Becraft seeing fundamentals intact.Weak commercialization economics reinforce M&A dependence; Pfizer’s planned BD activity and obesity interest, plus Jazz-Chimerix and AbbVie-Gubra, point to catalysts while Pliant and Biohaven test differentiation.

Yaron Werber × John Maraganore × Sam Fazeli × Matt Gline

Lilly’s $3.8B atai Beckley acquisition, ahead of a pivotal readout, extends its prevention and DTC “tech company” strategy while hedging potential obesity pressure a decade out.Roivant’s imminent brepocitinib launch combines orphan-market economics with pricing expected closer to IVIG’s $225K than Vyvgart’s $870K, while Merck’s $3,800 enlicitide and tau ASO tolerability keep affordability and validation in focus.

Sam Fazeli × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Matt Herper

AstraZeneca’s eplontersen failed its ATTR cardiomyopathy outcomes trial, with Ionis reporting no benefit in the tafamidis-combination group, including no CV-biomarker effect.The readout improves Alnylam’s perception, but royalty-free Nucresiran must still show whether its adjunctive outcomes study preserves silencer-plus-tafamidis synergy; Agios’ mitapivat won priority review despite missing its co-primary VOC endpoint.Atumelnant’s liver-enzyme elevations remain a risk to monitor.

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

XBI’s rise into the mid-150s is backed by fundamentals, though an AI reversal could create cross-sector downside risk.Josh Schimmer’s regression found an R² of just 0.2 between XBI performance and deal value; AbbVie’s $10.9B Apogee purchase instead highlights replicability and order of entry.FDA normalization and continued China-originated financings are catalysts, while restrictions that compress biotech returns remain a risk.

Sam Fazeli × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron

Bristol Myers’ BMS–Hengrui deal gives Hengrui options to co-develop select assets and conduct certain commercialization activities globally, alongside up to $950M in payments and $15.2B potential value.China’s low-cost, high-speed innovation creates licensing opportunity now, but three-to-five-year global-commercialization plans could shift value capture toward Chinese developers; REGENXBIO’s held DMD filing and Biogen’s Phase 3 tau decision keep precedent and capital allocation in focus.

Eric Schmidt × Matt Gline × Chris Garabedian × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s IPO window remains open: ten deals have raised $3.2B YTD, with the respiratory IPO moving from $18 to near $29.Yet no governor limits the cycle, and generalists remain selective around de-risked clinical- or commercial-stage names.Lilly’s six acquisitions and $14.5B upfront make it a category of one, leaving 2026 M&A and the XBI’s shrinking lead to monitor.

Graig Suvannavejh × Josh Schimmer × Yaron Werber × Sam Fazeli × Oliver Barnes

XBI has rebounded 84% from its Liberation Day low to a fresh 52-week high, with financing and IPO activity pointing to improving risk appetite.Merck’s $6.7B Terns deal shows updated data can erase bidding leverage, while Gilead’s $3.15B Tubulis acquisition backs a differentiated ADC platform; Replimune’s second CRL leaves the FDA’s bar unclear, and obesity pricing competition remains a catalyst.

Sam Fazeli × Josh Schimmer × Paul Matteis × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s data-to-financing loop and emerging cash-flow profile challenge the macro bear case that $100 oil and war will revive inflation, rates, and risk-off.FDA turnover, DNL310’s April 5 PDUFA, and IDEAYA’s month-end uveal-melanoma readout create near-term tests of regulatory flexibility and clinical translation.Servier’s Day One deal and NMIBC’s shift to doublets highlight external innovation and commercial positioning, while PFS-to-OS translation remains unresolved.

Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh × Luba Greenwood

Graig Suvannavejh’s 15-year Sentometer shifted from record small-cap enthusiasm to “winter is coming,” pointing to probably another three months before biotech sentiment bottoms.Profitability is approaching across SMID biotech, but its value depends on reinvestment-driven growth, not modest earnings.SpringWorks’ expected Merck KGaA catalyst and Moderna’s cancer-vaccine timeline lead the watchlist, while FDA and NIH changes remain unresolved risks.