Biotech Hangout

Daphne Zohar × Eric Schmidt × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s 80% XBI rally is structurally M&A-led, with roughly $138B announced against $59B of equity issuance, compressing premiums and leaving no preclinical IPOs.Moderna’s melanoma vaccine suggests a durable trade-secret franchise, while BioNTech’s colorectal failure leaves tumor context unresolved; daraxonrasib’s $478K price and frontline label, and ivonescimab’s HARMONi-3 in 6–9 months, set the key monitoring points.

Chris Garabedian × Graig Suvannavejh × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron

Biotech’s tape is “healthy but discerning,” with 19 Nasdaq issues year-to-date and the XBI outperforming, yet market-neutral shorts have struggled as heavily shorted names such as Crinetics and Apogee were acquired.Tenex and Sionna failures show how sharply negative data is punished, while MindMed’s durable Phase 3 LSD effect and Belite’s February 12, 2027 PDUFA create catalysts amid continuing diligence and competitive risks.

Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Jake Becraft

Biotech’s washout is intensifying: 16 of 18 2024 IPOs trade below issue at a median 61% decline, despite Jake Becraft seeing fundamentals intact.Weak commercialization economics reinforce M&A dependence; Pfizer’s planned BD activity and obesity interest, plus Jazz-Chimerix and AbbVie-Gubra, point to catalysts while Pliant and Biohaven test differentiation.

Graig Suvannavejh × Tim Opler × Yaron Werber × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney

Biotech is decisively outperforming, with XBI +24% YTD versus +9% for the S&P 500, as Graig sees FDA headwinds turning into tailwinds alongside 14 IPOs and $300B+ of pharma revenue at LOE risk.Reverse mergers now rival traditional IPOs, while J&J’s $785M Sail deal and $2.6B acquisition option reinforce hot in vivo CAR-T M&A.Alnylam’s roughly 30% TTR sell-off and Novo’s ZEUS miss leave upcoming data and year-end M&A as key tests.

Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Eric Schmidt × Brad Loncar

Scribe’s IPO raised roughly $120M for a TGA-cleared PCSK9 gene-silencing therapy, reopening the very-early-stage biotech window.Six biotech reverse mergers paired with $200M-plus PIPEs, including Xometry’s nearly $200M transaction into InMed, show a faster, increasingly IPO-like financing route.Next week’s RP1 and deramiocel AdComs could clarify whether FDA flexibility is emerging or negative findings signal a more stringent posture.

Yaron Werber × John Maraganore × Sam Fazeli × Matt Gline

Lilly’s $3.8B atai Beckley acquisition, ahead of a pivotal readout, extends its prevention and DTC “tech company” strategy while hedging potential obesity pressure a decade out.Roivant’s imminent brepocitinib launch combines orphan-market economics with pricing expected closer to IVIG’s $225K than Vyvgart’s $870K, while Merck’s $3,800 enlicitide and tau ASO tolerability keep affordability and validation in focus.

Sam Fazeli × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Matt Herper

AstraZeneca’s eplontersen failed its ATTR cardiomyopathy outcomes trial, with Ionis reporting no benefit in the tafamidis-combination group, including no CV-biomarker effect.The readout improves Alnylam’s perception, but royalty-free Nucresiran must still show whether its adjunctive outcomes study preserves silencer-plus-tafamidis synergy; Agios’ mitapivat won priority review despite missing its co-primary VOC endpoint.Atumelnant’s liver-enzyme elevations remain a risk to monitor.

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

XBI’s rise into the mid-150s is backed by fundamentals, though an AI reversal could create cross-sector downside risk.Josh Schimmer’s regression found an R² of just 0.2 between XBI performance and deal value; AbbVie’s $10.9B Apogee purchase instead highlights replicability and order of entry.FDA normalization and continued China-originated financings are catalysts, while restrictions that compress biotech returns remain a risk.

Graig Suvannavejh × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Oliver Barnes

Biotech is outperforming healthcare, with XBI up 10.5% year-to-date and Parabilis Medicines setting a $771M IPO record.Selective capital remains pivotal: Summit withdrew its $500M offering before the binary global HARMONi-3 readout, while Tango and Revolution reported a 90%+ response rate.Major deals and regulatory shifts offer catalysts, but financing needs, commercial competition, and follow-on capital allocation remain unresolved risks.

Yaron Werber × Tess Cameron × SamFazeli × Brian Skorney

AI is driving biotech’s tape: SMH is up 66% year-to-date versus IBB at 1% and XBI at 8%, while BIOSECURE and expanded COINS-style screening could redirect China dealmaking toward Europe.Ivonescimab cut death risk 34% in HARMONi-6, while daraxonrasib extended survival to 13.2 versus 6.7 months; SERENA-4 and CDK4 readouts, translatability, toxicity, and in vivo CAR-T durability warrant monitoring.