Brad Loncar

Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Eric Schmidt × Brad Loncar

Scribe’s IPO raised roughly $120M for a TGA-cleared PCSK9 gene-silencing therapy, reopening the very-early-stage biotech window.Six biotech reverse mergers paired with $200M-plus PIPEs, including Xometry’s nearly $200M transaction into InMed, show a faster, increasingly IPO-like financing route.Next week’s RP1 and deramiocel AdComs could clarify whether FDA flexibility is emerging or negative findings signal a more stringent posture.

Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Brad Loncar

Pfizer’s agreement with Trump reduces threatened tariff and most-favored-nation pricing risks, while industry pledges could encourage U.S.-first launches.Rising FDA execution risk, including CMC-driven CRLs, makes ESMO readouts important tests of regulatory flexibility.Biotech rotation and M&A remain active, but clinical differentiation, pricing pressure, capacity constraints, and deal durability remain unresolved.

Sam Fazeli × Eric Schmidt × PaulMatteis × Brian Skorney × Brad Loncar

Biotech’s tape has turned: XBI rose 11.9% versus 2% for the S&P over the past month.Sanofi’s 10% drop after amlitelimab met its primary endpoint highlights Dupixent’s expected $2.5B 2030 sales and 2031 patent loss.Fall HARMONi OS, FLAURA-2 OS and neuro readouts hinge on confidence intervals, China/ex-China consistency, screening failure and regulatory flexibility.

Chris Garabedian × Tess Cameron × Eric Schmidt × Sam Fazeli × Brad Loncar

Financing showed signs of reopening: LB Pharmaceuticals’ IPO rose and held, while Maze, Rapport, CAMP4 and Amylyx raised, though Eric Schmidt urged caution.A drafted China-biotech executive order could mandate CFIUS review of licensing deals and make FDA ignore China data, potentially freezing deals and pushing pharma beyond U.S. biotech.Revolution Medicines’ 55% first-line pancreatic ORR is promising; PFS and duration remain pending.

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Brad Loncar × Matt Gline

Trump’s letters to 17 pharma CEOs make MFN a risk, though no statutory authority was cited and implementation remains discounted.Medicaid and direct-to-consumer pricing may be easier; tougher IRA negotiations remain possible around September 29.GSK–Hengrui’s Phase 1 options and China’s 30% share of global trial starts sharpen outsourcing concerns; AHEAD’s 85%–90% screen-failure rate remains unresolved.

Eric Schmidt × Brad Loncar × Tim Opler × Tess Cameron

Biotech M&A has reached 18 takeouts worth over $40B in 2025, as patent cliffs drive pharma’s inorganic expansion and Capstan returns to early science.Median bidders remain 1, keeping Blueprint and Verona premiums modest, while Capstan’s $2.1B in vivo CAR-T deal may be either a wider XBI signal or a one-off; MFN rumors and upcoming data remain key watchpoints.

Brad Loncar × Eric Schmidt × Sam Fazeli

Sanofi’s $9.1B Blueprint acquisition turns a ten-year, $18 IPO story into an “almost 10-bagger,” with a possible $2B drug by 2030.Summit/Akeso’s HARMONi showed a 0.52 PFS HR, while OS missed at p=0.057, leaving translation and mechanism risks unresolved.Kymera’s STAT6 degrader achieved 90% degradation with clean safety; Q4 atopic-dermatitis data will test its once-daily oral Dupixent-competitor thesis.

Chris Garabedian × Brad Loncar × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron

Biotech markets face policy and macro instability as rising bond yields and a weaker dollar overshadow a temporary tariff-pause rally.With private capital confronting scarce company formation and weaker public comparables, catalysts must prove their case, while royalty financing offers earlier funding but can leave debt-like repayment obligations when programs fail.

Eric Schmidt × Brad Loncar × Yaron Werber × Paul Matteis × Nina Kjellson

FDA instability now outweighs tariffs as biotech’s central risk, with Peter Marks’s resignation and layoffs leaving its direction unclear.Ultragenyx, REGENXBIO and Denali will test whether prior FDA agreements and CSF heparan sulfate-based accelerated-approval pathways hold, while Lilly’s lepodisiran cut Lp(a) 93.5% at six months.Pelacarsen’s outcomes readout moves to the first half of next year.

Brad Loncar × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Luba Greenwood × Tim Opler × Adam Feuerstein

About 200 of roughly 700 public biotechs trade at negative enterprise value, making the sector’s “army of zombies” a capital-allocation and governance problem rather than a diagnosis.Cash-out optionality could test shareholder support for a failed pivot, but management incentives resist returning capital; Taysha shows revival is possible, while CARGO illustrates when the funded experiment simply fails.