Brad Loncar

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Brad Loncar × Matt Gline

Trump’s letters to 17 pharma CEOs make MFN a risk, though no statutory authority was cited and implementation remains discounted.Medicaid and direct-to-consumer pricing may be easier; tougher IRA negotiations remain possible around September 29.GSK–Hengrui’s Phase 1 options and China’s 30% share of global trial starts sharpen outsourcing concerns; AHEAD’s 85%–90% screen-failure rate remains unresolved.

Eric Schmidt × Brad Loncar × Tim Opler × Tess Cameron

Biotech M&A has reached 18 takeouts worth over $40B in 2025, as patent cliffs drive pharma’s inorganic expansion and Capstan returns to early science.Median bidders remain 1, keeping Blueprint and Verona premiums modest, while Capstan’s $2.1B in vivo CAR-T deal may be either a wider XBI signal or a one-off; MFN rumors and upcoming data remain key watchpoints.

Chris Garabedian × Brad Loncar × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron

Biotech markets face policy and macro instability as rising bond yields and a weaker dollar overshadow a temporary tariff-pause rally.With private capital confronting scarce company formation and weaker public comparables, catalysts must prove their case, while royalty financing offers earlier funding but can leave debt-like repayment obligations when programs fail.

Eric Schmidt × Brad Loncar × Yaron Werber × Paul Matteis × Nina Kjellson

FDA instability now outweighs tariffs as biotech’s central risk, with Peter Marks’s resignation and layoffs leaving its direction unclear.Ultragenyx, REGENXBIO and Denali will test whether prior FDA agreements and CSF heparan sulfate-based accelerated-approval pathways hold, while Lilly’s lepodisiran cut Lp(a) 93.5% at six months.Pelacarsen’s outcomes readout moves to the first half of next year.

Chris Garabedian × Brad Loncar × Sam Fazeli × Yaron Werber

Biotech entered JPM 2025 after a five-year negative 5% return, versus nearly 200% for tech and 80% for the S&P, suggesting structural capital competition beyond rates.China now supplies one-third of big pharma’s newly in-licensed molecules, with roughly $6 billion of upfronts over the last year, while Washington may make partnerships harder and put U.S. discovery funding and jobs at risk.JPM’s muted setup shifts attention to catalysts such as setrusumab’s May or June second interim and Pfizer’s $1 billion 2025 Part D hit.