Paul Matteis

Chris Garabedian × Graig Suvannavejh × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron

Biotech’s tape is “healthy but discerning,” with 19 Nasdaq issues year-to-date and the XBI outperforming, yet market-neutral shorts have struggled as heavily shorted names such as Crinetics and Apogee were acquired.Tenex and Sionna failures show how sharply negative data is punished, while MindMed’s durable Phase 3 LSD effect and Belite’s February 12, 2027 PDUFA create catalysts amid continuing diligence and competitive risks.

Graig Suvannavejh × Tim Opler × Yaron Werber × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney

Biotech is decisively outperforming, with XBI +24% YTD versus +9% for the S&P 500, as Graig sees FDA headwinds turning into tailwinds alongside 14 IPOs and $300B+ of pharma revenue at LOE risk.Reverse mergers now rival traditional IPOs, while J&J’s $785M Sail deal and $2.6B acquisition option reinforce hot in vivo CAR-T M&A.Alnylam’s roughly 30% TTR sell-off and Novo’s ZEUS miss leave upcoming data and year-end M&A as key tests.

Sam Fazeli × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Matt Herper

AstraZeneca’s eplontersen failed its ATTR cardiomyopathy outcomes trial, with Ionis reporting no benefit in the tafamidis-combination group, including no CV-biomarker effect.The readout improves Alnylam’s perception, but royalty-free Nucresiran must still show whether its adjunctive outcomes study preserves silencer-plus-tafamidis synergy; Agios’ mitapivat won priority review despite missing its co-primary VOC endpoint.Atumelnant’s liver-enzyme elevations remain a risk to monitor.

Graig Suvannavejh × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Oliver Barnes

Biotech is outperforming healthcare, with XBI up 10.5% year-to-date and Parabilis Medicines setting a $771M IPO record.Selective capital remains pivotal: Summit withdrew its $500M offering before the binary global HARMONi-3 readout, while Tango and Revolution reported a 90%+ response rate.Major deals and regulatory shifts offer catalysts, but financing needs, commercial competition, and follow-on capital allocation remain unresolved risks.

Josh Schimmer × Paul Matteis × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Allison DeAngelis

Record biotech secondaries are following better-than-expected data, while Angelini’s $4.1B Catalyst deal and UCB’s $2B-upfront Candid acquisition signal renewed dealmaking.Capital favors development stories over commercial biotech, while Agios’s thalassemia launch may leave 2026 consensus threefold too low and FDA turmoil keeps regulatory credibility in focus.

Chris Garabedian × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron × Adam Feuerstein

XBI strength, Kylera’s IPO above $625M before the shoe, and fresh S-1 and PIPE activity suggest financing is reopening, though the index now favors larger, liquid companies.Revolution Medicines’ 0.4 overall-survival hazard ratio in second-line pancreatic cancer and $2B raise could fund commercialization, while Travere’s proteinuria-based FSGS approval despite eGFR underperformance leaves Vertex’s high-risk enaxopin Phase 3 regulatory bar unresolved.

Sam Fazeli × Josh Schimmer × Paul Matteis × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s data-to-financing loop and emerging cash-flow profile challenge the macro bear case that $100 oil and war will revive inflation, rates, and risk-off.FDA turnover, DNL310’s April 5 PDUFA, and IDEAYA’s month-end uveal-melanoma readout create near-term tests of regulatory flexibility and clinical translation.Servier’s Day One deal and NMIBC’s shift to doublets highlight external innovation and commercial positioning, while PFS-to-OS translation remains unresolved.

Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh × Luba Greenwood

Graig Suvannavejh’s 15-year Sentometer shifted from record small-cap enthusiasm to “winter is coming,” pointing to probably another three months before biotech sentiment bottoms.Profitability is approaching across SMID biotech, but its value depends on reinvestment-driven growth, not modest earnings.SpringWorks’ expected Merck KGaA catalyst and Moderna’s cancer-vaccine timeline lead the watchlist, while FDA and NIH changes remain unresolved risks.

Chris Garabedian × Paul Matteis × Mike Yee × Sam Fazeli

JPM 2026 sentiment settled at a healthy seven out of 10, while record financing and cash-rich companies shifted biotech toward a sellers’ market.Generalists are moving from renting the space to wanting to own the group, broadening interest beyond Lilly and AbbVie.Moderna’s March Arbutus trial and Lilly’s 2027 TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 3 readout are catalysts, with patent damages and safety still unresolved.

Sam Fazeli × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney × Tess Cameron

Biotech enters JPM week with XBI at 125.53, as specialist-backed companies with fundamental progress—not indiscriminate buying—drove 2025 returns.Merck’s rumored $28–32bn Revolution Medicines bid could bring cash into the sector despite a rich EV/sales multiple, while Aktis’s $318m data-free IPO shows financing appetite; CMS MFN policy, anti-drug-antibody diligence, and upcoming clinical data remain risks.