Yaron Werber

Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Jake Becraft

Biotech’s washout is intensifying: 16 of 18 2024 IPOs trade below issue at a median 61% decline, despite Jake Becraft seeing fundamentals intact.Weak commercialization economics reinforce M&A dependence; Pfizer’s planned BD activity and obesity interest, plus Jazz-Chimerix and AbbVie-Gubra, point to catalysts while Pliant and Biohaven test differentiation.

Graig Suvannavejh × Tim Opler × Yaron Werber × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney

Biotech is decisively outperforming, with XBI +24% YTD versus +9% for the S&P 500, as Graig sees FDA headwinds turning into tailwinds alongside 14 IPOs and $300B+ of pharma revenue at LOE risk.Reverse mergers now rival traditional IPOs, while J&J’s $785M Sail deal and $2.6B acquisition option reinforce hot in vivo CAR-T M&A.Alnylam’s roughly 30% TTR sell-off and Novo’s ZEUS miss leave upcoming data and year-end M&A as key tests.

Yaron Werber × John Maraganore × Sam Fazeli × Matt Gline

Lilly’s $3.8B atai Beckley acquisition, ahead of a pivotal readout, extends its prevention and DTC “tech company” strategy while hedging potential obesity pressure a decade out.Roivant’s imminent brepocitinib launch combines orphan-market economics with pricing expected closer to IVIG’s $225K than Vyvgart’s $870K, while Merck’s $3,800 enlicitide and tau ASO tolerability keep affordability and validation in focus.

Yaron Werber × Tess Cameron × SamFazeli × Brian Skorney

AI is driving biotech’s tape: SMH is up 66% year-to-date versus IBB at 1% and XBI at 8%, while BIOSECURE and expanded COINS-style screening could redirect China dealmaking toward Europe.Ivonescimab cut death risk 34% in HARMONi-6, while daraxonrasib extended survival to 13.2 versus 6.7 months; SERENA-4 and CDK4 readouts, translatability, toxicity, and in vivo CAR-T durability warrant monitoring.

Josh Schimmer × Paul Matteis × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Allison DeAngelis

Record biotech secondaries are following better-than-expected data, while Angelini’s $4.1B Catalyst deal and UCB’s $2B-upfront Candid acquisition signal renewed dealmaking.Capital favors development stories over commercial biotech, while Agios’s thalassemia launch may leave 2026 consensus threefold too low and FDA turmoil keeps regulatory credibility in focus.

Graig Suvannavejh × Josh Schimmer × Yaron Werber × Sam Fazeli × Oliver Barnes

XBI has rebounded 84% from its Liberation Day low to a fresh 52-week high, with financing and IPO activity pointing to improving risk appetite.Merck’s $6.7B Terns deal shows updated data can erase bidding leverage, while Gilead’s $3.15B Tubulis acquisition backs a differentiated ADC platform; Replimune’s second CRL leaves the FDA’s bar unclear, and obesity pricing competition remains a catalyst.

Mike Yee × Eric Schmidt × Matt Gline × Yaron Werber

Biotech posted its strongest IPO quarter in four years, with $2B of Q1 IPOs and a $2.5B run rate.Roivant’s Moderna settlement could reach $2.25B, with $950M cash in July and up to $1.3B tied to the §1498 appeal.Paying the contingent amount could leave roughly “two and change” years of cash, while GLP-1 orals broaden a $100B market and threaten consumer categories.

Graig Suvannavejh × Chris Garabedian × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber

Sanofi’s $9.1B Blueprint Medicines acquisition combines a 27% premium with rare-disease and immunology expansion.Consensus supports a $2B drug by 2030, while Summit’s HARMONi-A showed a 0.52 PFS hazard ratio across China and US cohorts.OS missed at p=0.057, and Kymera’s 90% STAT6 degradation, clean safety and Q4 atopic-dermatitis data keep filing and differentiation risks in focus.

Josh Schimmer × Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × John Crowley

BIO CEO John Crowley says rising US trial costs and regulatory uncertainty make capital flowing to China “perfectly rational.”His FDA prescription—stability, consistency, transparency, and modernization—puts “the next 6 months” in focus.MFN codification could be “devastating” and “unmanageable” before Section 232 action due by the last week of March, while ReGenix’s PLAG1 integration tests AAV safety.

Grace Colón × Chris Garabedian × Sam Fazeli × Paul Matteis × Yaron Werber × John Stanford

House-passed FY2026 NDAA would make biotech a national-security asset through a new DoD office and SBIR-like funding, while a watered down BIOSECURE Act could constrain listed suppliers.Nearly $2B raised and XBI up 35%–36% YTD signal a thaw, but IPOs remain unconfirmed; ASH challenged BeiGene and favored anito-cel, while Dyne’s DMD path remains clouded by biomarker uncertainty.