Daphne Zohar

Daphne Zohar × Eric Schmidt × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s 80% XBI rally is structurally M&A-led, with roughly $138B announced against $59B of equity issuance, compressing premiums and leaving no preclinical IPOs.Moderna’s melanoma vaccine suggests a durable trade-secret franchise, while BioNTech’s colorectal failure leaves tumor context unresolved; daraxonrasib’s $478K price and frontline label, and ivonescimab’s HARMONi-3 in 6–9 months, set the key monitoring points.

Daphne Zohar × Bruce Booth × Eric Schmidt

Biotech’s year-end pause looks like healthy stock-picker consolidation, with XBI near 124 while mediocre data from Pyxis and Nektar were heavily punished.Nearly $9B of October-November follow-ons is creating indigestion, as first-day performance increasingly sets discounts for subsequent deals.Confidential S-1 flips could fuel a Q1 IPO rush, but recycled issuers and a disrupted FDA policy backdrop make quality and execution the key risks.

Daphne Zohar × Bruce Booth × Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Eric Schmidt

Biotech's rebound is broadening as sub-cash companies fall from 200+ to 50 and M&A approaches its strongest year since 2019.Bruce sees IPOs reopening in early 2026, but $40-50M in first-two-year costs favor private financing.Avidity's $12B pre-Phase 3 sale, Catalent's CMC failures, and Intellia's day-30 toxicity keep platform durability, manufacturing, and safety in focus.

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Luba Greenwood × Matt Gline × Michal Preminger

The XBI is up over 40% since April's “Liberation Day” lows, and Josh Schimmer sees it on the cusp of profitability, with a meaningful inflection over the next two to three years.The panel says successful launches matter more than acquisition exits, while Roche's up-to-$3.5B 89bio deal validates FGF-21 but leaves Phase 3 until 2027 and CVR value uncertain.

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Brad Loncar × Matt Gline

Trump’s letters to 17 pharma CEOs make MFN a risk, though no statutory authority was cited and implementation remains discounted.Medicaid and direct-to-consumer pricing may be easier; tougher IRA negotiations remain possible around September 29.GSK–Hengrui’s Phase 1 options and China’s 30% share of global trial starts sharpen outsourcing concerns; AHEAD’s 85%–90% screen-failure rate remains unresolved.

Chris Garabedian × Daphne Zohar × Sam Fazeli × Tess Cameron × Paul Matteis × Tim Opler

XBI remains down YTD, but this year's IPO cohort is up 50–60% and follow-ons work, signaling a fund-specific recovery amid scarce private capital.China biotech rose almost 40% last month on rumored "$500 million plus" deals, while copycat competition discounts exposed US smid-caps; FDA subjectivity remains a tail risk as KalVista's approval is "very likely" despite an inferential CRL report.

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Tim Opler × John Maraganore × Paul Matteis

After April 7, XBI rose about 15% and BBC 30%, but remained down 12% and 24% year to date, offering no proof generalists returned.Makary’s FDA agenda could expand rare-disease optionality through smaller decisive datasets and conditional approvals, but staffing disruption and scientific independence remain execution risks.Cobenfy’s failed adjunctive study cut Citi’s peak-sales view to $2.8 billion, while real-world combination use and Alzheimer’s psychosis preserve upside scenarios.

Daphne Zohar × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber

Biotech’s market plumbing looked substantially worse than its fundamentals, with 16 of 18 2024 IPOs below issue price and a 61% median decline despite companies advancing assets and becoming cheaper.Pfizer signaled BD capacity of “10 to 15” this year and higher next year, while Jazz’s roughly $935 million Chimerix acquisition showed how focused assets can create value through existing infrastructure.The setup favors differentiated drugs and targeted consolidation, but launch-related patent-cliff skepticism, negative-enterprise-value cash burn, and uncertain vaccine policy remain key risks to monitor.

Daphne Zohar × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney × Tim Opler × Abe Ceesay

Biotech sentiment improved after JPM, but the XBI’s 12% lag versus the S&P kept the shift “less negative,” not risk-on.Stronger 2025 pharma M&A capacity, wall-crossed PIPEs, and GH Research’s 15-to-16-point MADRS difference offered catalysts while exposing access and disclosure tensions.Symbravo’s launch, Ingrezza’s Part D pressure, and Eylea biosimilar erosion leave reimbursement, competition, and execution as key variables.

Daphne Zohar × John Maraganore × Mike Yee × Sam Fazeli × John Crowley

Biotech entered JPM at “five out of 10,” with macro steering capital and Metsera’s obesity IPO testing a discriminating window.J&J’s $14.6 billion Intra-Cellular Therapies acquisition—following $1.22 billion raised and approximately 13× value creation—shows pharma’s appetite for derisked CNS assets, while China’s speed and cost make FDA trial reform a potential catalyst.