Chris Garabedian × Graig Suvannavejh × Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber

Pharma buyers remain active in early-stage assets and China, though term sheets do not guarantee Q4 closings.Amvuttra sales fell to $81 million from $129 million in Q2 as Alnylam cut franchise guidance for a second time this year.AI may reduce data-gathering costs, but a 10,000-patient cardiovascular study still takes five years and $300 million.

Daphne Zohar × Brad Loncar × Chris Garabedian × Sam Fazeli × Eric Schmidt × Josh Schimmer × Matt Gline × Ali Mortazavi

Moderna’s selloff puts a near-$100 billion valuation against $2.2–2.3 billion in annual revenue and established melanoma competition, though Loncar says the data strengthened the medical and commercial case.Tango’s PRMT5 inhibitor delivered an 82% response rate and 88% non-progression at nine months in heavily pretreated pancreatic cancer, but its shares fell; the MTAP-deleted opportunity may cover 30–40% of patients.

Michael Dempsey

AI vendors growing 6x in a market expanding 10x may be losing ground, while stack convergence could put $30 billion businesses at risk of displacement within nine months.Compound’s roughly 23-company portfolio includes 16 biotech businesses and only three AI investments, reflecting Dempsey’s preference for scientific ventures that control a route from discovery to commercialization.

Graig Suvannavejh × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Jake Becraft

XBI remains up 20% YTD but fell from 169 to roughly 146 amid biotech’s largest cumulative hedge-fund de-grossing in more than five years.IPO markets remain open but favor clinical catalysts and defensible IP; M&A could restart buying, while Bristol’s low-dose-only significant admilparant result supports LPA1 in IPF but leaves dose response unresolved.

Molly O'Shea × Nworah Ayogu

Thrive’s healthcare thesis is that AI may shift bottlenecks from molecule generation to validation, trials, manufacturing, and commercialization.Cadence cites 25% fewer hospitalizations, over-80% more controlled-blood-pressure patients, nearly one-point lower A1C, and $2.5 million in weekly Medicare savings across 100,000+ monitored patients.Neuralink and OpenAI show upside, while clinical processes and manufacturing capacity remain unresolved constraints.

Graig Suvannavejh × Sam Fazeli × Eric Schmidt × Brian Skorney

Biotech’s 27% XBI gain through September masks a punishing ownership unwind, as underowned and heavily shorted names offset specialist-fund selling.Regeneron-Sanofi’s $1 billion upfront and AstraZeneca’s $2 billion Summit investment show strategic capital is flowing, but HARMONi-3 remains a potentially historic binary event.China-origin deals and Lilly’s obesity data sharpen competition, while financing, durability, tolerability, and endpoint risk still dictate outcomes.

Jonathan Siddharth × Molly O'Shea

Healthcare AI has crossed O'Shea’s threshold for measurable impact, with biological and chemical models, laboratory robotics and simulations targeting drug development’s high failure rates.After a decade building licenses, networks and care infrastructure, Devoted Health tripled in size, halved operating expenses and significantly increased EBITDA, while China’s rising pharmaceutical research share leaves domestic research and regulatory capacity as risks to monitor.

Sam Fazeli × Yaron Werber × Brian Skorney × Matt Gline

Biotech’s healthy headline tape masked long-short degrossing and rate sensitivity, while 22 IPOs and record-period average proceeds showed primary-market resilience.MFN may rebalance global contributions through revenue sharing rather than simply cut U.S. prices, but Europe could restrict access or favor cheaper Chinese drugs; meanwhile, durable VK2735 efficacy, Celldex safety and Vertex’s interim analysis define catalysts.

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Adam Feuerstein

XBI fell roughly 4% month to date and 9%-10% from its highs, but remained up about 30% for the year, suggesting nervous consolidation rather than a broken thesis.Xenon’s nearly 30% selloff after pausing depression enrollment came despite no clinical hold and about 360 patients enrolled, showing how bounded safety data can become a franchise scare.Sionna’s failed add-on study reinforced Vertex’s cystic-fibrosis moat, while a switch study remains the key test.

Tess Cameron × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Yaron Werber

HORIZON was “completely negative” despite pelacarsen reducing Lp(a) 80%, challenging biomarker shortcuts as Amgen fell 10% on read-through.Novartis’s Avidity failure less than a year after the $12 billion acquisition drove Artisan’s sales cut of about $5 billion and EPS CAGR to 4%.Dyne’s 25% placebo-adjusted CASI-22 splice correction and Roivant’s 56% PVR reduction set up catalysts, while endpoint and outcome risks remain.