Josh Schimmer

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

XBI’s rise into the mid-150s is backed by fundamentals, though an AI reversal could create cross-sector downside risk.Josh Schimmer’s regression found an R² of just 0.2 between XBI performance and deal value; AbbVie’s $10.9B Apogee purchase instead highlights replicability and order of entry.FDA normalization and continued China-originated financings are catalysts, while restrictions that compress biotech returns remain a risk.

Josh Schimmer × Paul Matteis × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Allison DeAngelis

Record biotech secondaries are following better-than-expected data, while Angelini’s $4.1B Catalyst deal and UCB’s $2B-upfront Candid acquisition signal renewed dealmaking.Capital favors development stories over commercial biotech, while Agios’s thalassemia launch may leave 2026 consensus threefold too low and FDA turmoil keeps regulatory credibility in focus.

Graig Suvannavejh × Josh Schimmer × Yaron Werber × Sam Fazeli × Oliver Barnes

XBI has rebounded 84% from its Liberation Day low to a fresh 52-week high, with financing and IPO activity pointing to improving risk appetite.Merck’s $6.7B Terns deal shows updated data can erase bidding leverage, while Gilead’s $3.15B Tubulis acquisition backs a differentiated ADC platform; Replimune’s second CRL leaves the FDA’s bar unclear, and obesity pricing competition remains a catalyst.

Grace Colón × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Brian Skorney

Novo’s CagriSema delivered 12.6% placebo-adjusted weight loss in REDEFINE 2, broadly in line with Zepbound, but the stock fell roughly 8–10%.Policy risks include MFN pricing, tariffs and vaccine trust, while PBM reform, IRA fixes and the tax bill offer upside; a report expected the week of April 7 could be a catalyst.

Josh Schimmer × Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × John Crowley

BIO CEO John Crowley says rising US trial costs and regulatory uncertainty make capital flowing to China “perfectly rational.”His FDA prescription—stability, consistency, transparency, and modernization—puts “the next 6 months” in focus.MFN codification could be “devastating” and “unmanageable” before Section 232 action due by the last week of March, while ReGenix’s PLAG1 integration tests AAV safety.

Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech enters 2026 on launches rather than dreams, with limited pricing pressure, more M&A, XBI still cheap over five years, and rates the key macro risk.IPO expectations range from 15 to roughly 50 or more, but preclinical FOMO remains a crash signal; meanwhile, FDA turnover makes uniQure’s reversal a test of whether prespecified agreements still carry weight, while Capricor and Praxis offer near-term approval catalysts.

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron

Vinay Prasad’s FDA return and Precigen’s full Papzimeos approval on a “pretty small trial” signal differentiated evidence standards for rare diseases.Eric favors avoiding binaries, arguing 70% consensus odds versus 50% reality create poor risk-reward.With horizons compressed to 3–4 months, mispriced names could re-rate before data, while regulatory clarity remains the catalyst and risk.

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Brad Loncar × Matt Gline

Trump’s letters to 17 pharma CEOs make MFN a risk, though no statutory authority was cited and implementation remains discounted.Medicaid and direct-to-consumer pricing may be easier; tougher IRA negotiations remain possible around September 29.GSK–Hengrui’s Phase 1 options and China’s 30% share of global trial starts sharpen outsourcing concerns; AHEAD’s 85%–90% screen-failure rate remains unresolved.

Josh Schimmer × Chris Garabedian × Sam Fazeli × Yaron Werber × Adam Feuerstein

Sarepta’s credibility crisis deepened after reporters disclosed a patient death tied to the rAAVrh74 vector, prompting FDA to request halting all Elevidys shipments and a trading halt.Ultragenyx’s CMC-only CRL and GSK’s failed Blenrep ODAC votes signal tighter scrutiny, while large-biopharma M&A and FDA encouragement leave catalysts alongside governance and regulatory risks.

Chris Garabedian × Josh Schimmer × Nina Kjellson × Mike Yee × Tim Opler

Summit’s PD-1×VEGF bispecific missed overall survival at p=0.0575, sending shares down 25% despite a PFS hit and 20% lower mortality risk in Western patients.Tim Opler sees VEGF×PD-1 becoming oncology’s backbone, while Pfizer’s 3SBio license and Seagen acquisition give it control for ADC combinations.Macro uncertainty favors discounted commercial-stage M&A, and Gilead’s June 19 lenacapavir PDUFA will test FDA functionality.