Ideas don't need a pulse.

Executive Summary

Euler rebuilt from a $200M exploit, shipped v2, and grew TVL from $4.5M to $2.2B+ in under a year, and generates ~$35M in annualized fees but still trades at a 0.7x P/F ratio while lending peers command 3-9x. Fully unlocked supply, an automated buyback engine (Fee Flow), BlackRock’s sBUIDL as the first permissionless DeFi integration, and a new CEO pivoting toward institutional credit markets make $EUL one of the most asymmetric setups in DeFi today. The market is pricing a dead protocol. The data shows something different.

Introduction

(2026 Jan 18) Update since original thesis: Several key catalysts have materialized. At the Met Dhabi conference (December 10, 2025), the team announced a $10 million USDC buyback program, acquiring 2.3% of MET’s total supply in Q4 2025, representing approximately 88% of that quarter’s revenue deployed toward value accrual. Alongside the buyback, Meteora introduced “Comet Points,” a consumable rewards system tied to MET staking and platform engagement, signaling deeper integration between token utility and product usage.

On the launchpad front, Bags.fm, built on Meteora’s Dynamic Bonding Curve (DBC) infrastructure, has emerged as a breakout catalyst for ecosystem attention. Activity on Bags.fm is spiking this week after the success of Gas Town’s token (GAS), with the platform ranking second on Jupiter’s launchpad leaderboard at approximately 15.4% market share. The creator-royalty model (1% perpetual fees to token creators) has attracted viral launches and mainstream exposure, including a livestream featuring MrBeast. This positions Meteora’s DBC infrastructure as the picks-and-shovels layer capturing fees across the Solana launchpad wars.MET is up 30%+, reflecting market participants connecting the dots between Bags.fm’s surge and Meteora’s underlying fee capture as the liquidity layer powering the platform.

Perhaps most notably, Meteora now stands atop DEXs by 30D revenue at $13M, surpassing PumpSwap and Aerodome as of early January 2026, a structural shift validating the protocol’s dominant positioning within Solana’s liquidity ecosystem.

This report reflects my own views and not necessarily the views of Kronos Ventures or WOO. The following analysis reflects my personal conviction and is provided solely for educational context, it should not be construed as financial advice. I am writing this of my own volition, and it is important to state that I have received no compensation, incentives, or advisory fees from the Lighter team or any affiliated parties. While I earned a small points allocation approximately ten months ago, my current exposure is driven by my own capital. As of December 16, 2025, I am long on both Lighter and Extended points.

Over the last two weeks, I have concentrated on strategic secondary accumulation, primarily acquiring whole wallets through private OTC deals. By leveraging established relationships within my network, I’ve been able to facilitate these transfers on a reputation-based, non-collateralized basis. This approach has allowed me to secure a cost basis that currently sits at a 20% discount to prevailing market speculation.

This thesis serves as a breakdown of my internal investment framework as it applies to Lighter’s fundamental value proposition. My focus here is on the underlying mechanics of the platform and the specific demand sinks for the

Position: Long | Timeframe: 6-12 months | Conviction: Medium (needs factor decomposition to size)

Summary

Genpact ($G) sits at $38.73, down 18% in a month, RSI 21, near 52-week lows. The Feb 3-4 sell-off wasn't company-specific — it was sector-wide panic. Anthropic's expanded Claude enterprise stack triggered what traders called the "SaaSpocalypse": $285B evaporated from software and IT services on fears that agentic AI would kill traditional BPO models. Indian IT giants (Infosys, TCS, Wipro) dropped 6-7%.

$ADBE: Buying an AI-Fortified Enterprise Fortress at a Price That Assumes the Walls Have Already Fallen

1. Executive Summary

Adobe at $269 is a generational asymmetry. The market prices this business — 89% gross margins, $8.8B in free cash flow, 55% ROE, and 10.5% revenue growth — as though structural impairment has already begun. It hasn't. Revenue grew double digits last quarter. Margins expanded. The $25B buyback authorization compounds at 5.7% annual EPS accretion at these depressed prices. The stock trades at 11.5x management's own FY2026 EPS guidance of $23.40, below every credible peer in enterprise application software — including mature franchises like Oracle (16x) and IBM (14x) that grow at half Adobe's rate. At 7.8% free cash flow yield, Adobe is priced not as a mature compounder but as a declining franchise. The financial data flatly contradicts that verdict.

Since publishing my original Shuffle report for Delphi on July 7th, the project has delivered solid progress across the board. Beyond $SHFL’s price appreciation, we’ve seen clear growth in NGR (net gaming revenue), steady user engagement, and lottery dynamics that continue to validate the core thesis.

In this update, I’ll break down why I remain bullish on $SHFLas a cornerstone of crypto’s emerging “revenue meta,” highlight key catalysts on the horizon, and outline a few steps the team could take to accelerate a rerating.

With the right adjustments and as the market begins to recognize SHFL’s underlying business strength, I see a credible path for Shuffle to break into the top 100 coins by market cap (from its current rank of #455).

TLDR on the protocol:

• YieldBasis lets you earn yield on your BTC by providing liquidity to an AMM pool without suffering from impermanent loss
• Protocol is live with organic (unsubsidized), scalable BTC yield – ETH, SOL, BNB support coming soon
• Native $YB token captures fees generated by the protocol, works as a next-gen CRV model with a reinvented emission algorithm

TLDR on the bet:

Investment Highlights:

• Massive TVL vs. Tiny Market Cap: Marinade Finance currently secures over 10.5 million SOL (≈$2.0 billion) in staked assets, yet its governance token MNDE has a market cap of only about $56  million – an MC/TVL ratio of roughly 0.028
• Institutional-Grade Platform: Marinade has achieved SOC 2 Type 2 security compliance and is integrated by major custodians like BitGo . In May 2025, Marinade’s institutional staking product was named the exclusive staking provider for Canary Capital’s proposed Solana Staking ETF (a two-year agreement) . If that ETF gets approved, Marinade could see a flood of institutional SOL staking demand.
• Real Revenue, Low Valuation: Marinade’s protocol revenues are on the order of $11.6  million per year, coming purely from staking yield (no retail fees). At the current token price, MNDE’s MC/Revenue is ~5×, less than half of Lido’s and about one-eighth of Jito’s. Despite proven cash flows, the market is pricing MNDE at a steep discount to peers.

Executive Summary

1. Current Price: $6.47
2. Market Capitalization: $430m | FDV: $647m
3. Volume: ~$2m T30D Average Volume, mostly on Uniswap v3

Key Takeaways

Metaplex dominates Solana’s token issuance infrastructure, earning fees from every mint of memecoins and other tokens—this revenue directly fuels aggressive MPLX buybacks.

• Current MPLX valuation appears deeply discounted, trading at 4× annual revenue / 8× net profit, with a circulating market cap of ~$80M.
• Two major catalysts could reignite revenue growth: the launch of the Solana Seeker phone, incentivizing retail users to create new tokens, and intensifying competition among memecoin launchpads (“Launchpad Wars”).
• Bear, base, and bull scenarios suggest strong asymmetry, with potential MPLX fair value ranging from $0.08 (bear) to $0.70 (bull) per token, compared to the current ~$0.10 price.

Executive summary

Fundraising on Solana remains structurally broken. Most token launches today are either speculative meme experiments or insider-driven presales, while so-called “fair” launches still favor early entrants at the expense of broader investors. This leaves serious builders without a credible way to raise capital, and investors without a fair way to participate.

MetaDAO introduces the first sustainable alternative: a futarchic ICO model where all participants enter at the same price, capital is held in a DAO treasury rather than captured by founding teams, and failed projects unwind transparently through structured buybacks instead of abandonment. The result is a mechanism that preserves the openness of ICOs while removing the scams, insider advantages, and asymmetric risks that have undermined the fundraising landscape.

Since July, Solana has been pushing the Internet Capital Markets (ICM) narrative.From Solana Foundation’s 2027 roadmap:

ICMs refer to a globally accessible ledger where entities, currencies, and cultures are tokenized, allowing anyone with an internet connection access to capital markets.

In simpler terms: ICM = turning the internet + blockchain into a capital market where ideas/projects can be funded, tokens issued, and traded — broadly and cheaply.

Executive Summary We recommend initiating a SHORT position in MiniMax Group (0100.HK) with a price target of HKD 32, representing approximately 80% downside from the current price of HKD 158. Our high-conviction thesis is that MiniMax is a capital-intensive service provider with structurally broken ...

TLDR

• With BNB at a new ATH along with DAT treasury companies rising and OKX burning 90% of their total supply, MNT is in a very interesting position at the right time with some new updates and potential catalysts expected by smart market participants.
• Bybit has climbed up the ladder to be one of the biggest exchanges internationally and their recent AMA shows they are serious about creating more demand for the MNT token.
• We expected MNT to outperform if the market sustains strong momentum and outperforms in terms of relative performance compared to other CEX platform tokens, as their catalysts of potential buyback/burn from exchange fees (and perhaps some from treasury) are only coming now, while all other CEX tokens have burned their bullish catalysts.

The DoubleZero (2Z) token appears significantly overvalued relative to its fundamentals, with weak sustainability signals for its current adoption.

Valuation & Tokenomics Concerns

Publish Date: May 21, 2025

Authors: James Ho (Modular Capital), Jose Sanchez (Spartan Group)

Aerodrome will announce new planned changes to the project on November 12. After piecing together public hints, I believe AERO offers an asymmetric long opportunity ahead of what the team will likely try to turn into a dominant DEX across a majority of EVM chains—positioning AERO as an index on the growth of decentralized exchanges.

TLDR – Why AERO offers an asymmetric opportunity

Opening Thoughts

Trading has always been crypto’s primary use case, and that hasn’t changed. Despite the rise of new narratives like DePIN, AI, or gaming, the lion’s share of volume, fees, and user activity still revolves around one thing: trading.

But while trading continues to dominate, most DEXs haven’t evolved past short-term incentives, inefficient designs, and tokens that capture little to no value.

Ekubo changes that.

1. Introduction

Bittensor (TAO) is emerging as the foundational asset of decentralized artificial intelligence—a network designed not just to secure data, but to produce intelligence itself. By combining blockchain’s incentive structure with open-source machine learning, Bittensor enables anyone to contribute AI compute and earn rewards for valuable outputs. Unlike traditional AI development, which is often siloed within large corporations or academic labs, Bittensor creates a permissionless marketplace where inference, training, and validation are decentralized and economically aligned.

The network’s launch was uniquely fair, like Bitcoin: no venture capital, no premine, and no team allocation. Every TAO in circulation has been earned on-chain. This clean distribution model is paired with an economic engine—known as Dynamic TAO (dTAO)—which governs how emissions flow to productive AI subnets. Introduced on February 13, 2025, dTAO marked a turning point in Bittensor’s architecture, turning TAO into both the economic and governance backbone of a growing ecosystem of AI modules.