David Hunter

The 25bp hike was fully priced, but the hawkish presser briefly hit E-minis and small caps as oil topped $100 and diesel exceeded $6.Hunter sees a one-and-done move, rates near a three-year top, and December hike odds trending down.His melt-up targets are S&P 10,000, silver 200, and gold 7,000, with AI correction, oil, and midterms as risks.

Mr. Z × AI 產業挖掘機

标普500成分股EPS约30%的增长支撑美股创新高，但日韩港股仍受成交量塌缩和资金通道关闭拖累。前沿模型凭借最佳模型与产品维持议价权，OpenAI关闭200美元套餐；推理margin约80%，开源部署强化云的经济性。FOMC落地后的反弹窗口或在九月下旬至十月，但Anthropic十月底IPO、通胀、欧债与AI capex争夺资金仍需监测。

Avi Felman × GMoney

An in-line CPI print makes a next-meeting hike near-certain, but Avi says AI capex may mean the cycle will not last.Nvidia’s neocloud financing could become capital-light SaaS-like revenue after roughly two years of consolidation.Tokenized-stock pairings may create on-chain demand; Quotrons has roughly $10M market cap, and FWA depends on sustained top-of-funnel spins.

Mr. Z × 投资TALK君

AI仍在推进，芯片估值较高点下跌，软件财报首次显示AI开始变现，硬件交易可能受情绪驱动。Intel重回第一大仓位，foundry或转正；开源模型可能把定价权还给CSP，agent落地及SpaceX估值和Anthropic IPO流动性仍待观察。

李翔 × 李丰

全球流动性或已见顶，AI数据中心与美债、美股争夺资金，资本开支转向惩罚激进；李丰的英伟达实验提示延期、涨价、自由现金流下降和应收高企风险。中国融资结构与房地产、保险、A股筹码调整或重塑居民资产配置，滞胀与泡沫出清仍待观察。

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Nvidia’s $96.2B revenue and $60B net profit came with 70% growth guidance versus the Street’s 45%, despite supply constraints.Salesforce’s 20%+ rally on $5.90 adjusted EPS and a $46B guide suggests agents may reinforce horizontal systems of record, while vertical SaaS remains contested.Debt also bears watching: $10T must be refinanced within 12 months at a 5.2% 30-year rate.

Andrew Walker

With 10-year Treasuries and ERP around 4.5%, Walker warns that ERP returning to 6% could sharply compress P/E multiples.Higher rates could raise data-center lease requirements 5–10% and reduce 15-year contract terminal values, while tenant bankruptcy, Bitcoin-mining economics, or founder-driven capital allocation at UWMC and Cogent remain risks to monitor.

Harry Stebbings

NVIDIA’s $6B Poolside licensing deal, $1B investment at a $12B pre-money valuation, and 109-engineer transfer show frontier-model capital intensity pushing capable startups toward strategic “failure” exits.OpenAI’s 2027 IPO appears compelled by Anthropic’s $60B mid-year run rate versus under $30B this year, while enterprises’ $200–400B AI-spending capacity remains the key test.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s 25% rally toward $80K reflects a shift from AI productivity to Treasury and Fed-driven debasement, after equity vol cooled and Bessent deployed capital to defend yields.Avi sees a reasonable chance of $95K-$100K within six weeks and substantial ZCAF flows, with $15.5M in day-one volume comparable to BSOL as a percentage of market cap.The key risk is that this remains an early-innings lockout rally rather than a new bull trend, while NVDA’s crowded short positioning creates a potential one-to-two-day rebound catalyst into earnings.

Dwarkesh Patel × Dylan Patel

Anthropic and OpenAI could receive 40%–50% of new compute next year, potentially controlling most usable FLOPs by end-2028 as GB300, TPU v7 and Trainium 3 improve performance per watt 3–5×.Anthropic’s revenue has reached as high as $50M/MW, it started turning profitable in Q2, and compute repricing, regulation and export controls leave margins, financing and centralization as key risks.