Paul Matteis

Josh Schimmer × Paul Matteis × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Allison DeAngelis

Record biotech secondaries are following better-than-expected data, while Angelini’s $4.1B Catalyst deal and UCB’s $2B-upfront Candid acquisition signal renewed dealmaking.Capital favors development stories over commercial biotech, while Agios’s thalassemia launch may leave 2026 consensus threefold too low and FDA turmoil keeps regulatory credibility in focus.

Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh × Luba Greenwood

Graig Suvannavejh’s 15-year Sentometer shifted from record small-cap enthusiasm to “winter is coming,” pointing to probably another three months before biotech sentiment bottoms.Profitability is approaching across SMID biotech, but its value depends on reinvestment-driven growth, not modest earnings.SpringWorks’ expected Merck KGaA catalyst and Moderna’s cancer-vaccine timeline lead the watchlist, while FDA and NIH changes remain unresolved risks.

Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech enters 2026 on launches rather than dreams, with limited pricing pressure, more M&A, XBI still cheap over five years, and rates the key macro risk.IPO expectations range from 15 to roughly 50 or more, but preclinical FOMO remains a crash signal; meanwhile, FDA turnover makes uniQure’s reversal a test of whether prespecified agreements still carry weight, while Capricor and Praxis offer near-term approval catalysts.

Graig Suvannavejh × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Chris Garabedian × Adam Feuerstein

George Tidmarsh’s CBER departure and UniQure’s rejected filing after FDA alignment expose a widening gap between flexible guidance and unpredictable execution.UniQure reported 80% disease slowing at two years and 75% at three years for high dose, while Sarepta’s failed ESSENCE study and December’s Stoke meeting will test evidence standards and early-filing appetite.

Paul Matteis × John Maraganore × Eric Schmidt × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s rally is being powered by real money, with the XBI outperforming the S&P 500 by 17% since September and fund flows positive for a second straight week, though Eric Schmidt cautions fundamentals may lag the tape.FDA delays, unclear CNPV criteria and potential pricing concessions remain execution risks, while a long-awaited 2026 IPO window, strategic M&A and upcoming Alector Phase 3 data could test whether clinical risk is being rewarded sustainably.

Grace Colón × John Maraganore × Paul Matteis × Eric Schmidt

MFN, not tariffs, is the sector’s key overhang; Paul Matteis says worst cases are “nowhere near priced into stocks.”Novo’s ex-Catalent Indianapolis facility has 43 Form 483 observations and two Regeneron CRLs, putting Scholar Rock’s September 22 SMA PDUFA at manufacturing risk.Vertex’s over-20% drop after a next-generation pain failure and slow suzetrigine launch makes strategy a key catalyst.

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Brad Loncar × Matt Gline

Trump’s letters to 17 pharma CEOs make MFN a risk, though no statutory authority was cited and implementation remains discounted.Medicaid and direct-to-consumer pricing may be easier; tougher IRA negotiations remain possible around September 29.GSK–Hengrui’s Phase 1 options and China’s 30% share of global trial starts sharpen outsourcing concerns; AHEAD’s 85%–90% screen-failure rate remains unresolved.

Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney

Elevidys escalated from restructuring to an FDA-requested, then accepted, full shipment halt after a third death, exposing regulatory, disclosure, debt, and political risks for Sarepta.Replimune’s RP1 delivered low-30s ORR with roughly half complete responses versus single-digit standard-of-care rates but received a CRL over its single-arm study, while Tidmarsh’s industry background and shifting FDA signals leave approval flexibility and small-biotech capital costs unresolved.

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Tim Opler × John Maraganore × Paul Matteis

After April 7, XBI rose about 15% and BBC 30%, but remained down 12% and 24% year to date, offering no proof generalists returned.Makary’s FDA agenda could expand rare-disease optionality through smaller decisive datasets and conditional approvals, but staffing disruption and scientific independence remain execution risks.Cobenfy’s failed adjunctive study cut Citi’s peak-sales view to $2.8 billion, while real-world combination use and Alzheimer’s psychosis preserve upside scenarios.

Chris Garabedian × Brad Loncar × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron

Biotech markets face policy and macro instability as rising bond yields and a weaker dollar overshadow a temporary tariff-pause rally.With private capital confronting scarce company formation and weaker public comparables, catalysts must prove their case, while royalty financing offers earlier funding but can leave debt-like repayment obligations when programs fail.