Eric Schmidt

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

XBI’s rise into the mid-150s is backed by fundamentals, though an AI reversal could create cross-sector downside risk.Josh Schimmer’s regression found an R² of just 0.2 between XBI performance and deal value; AbbVie’s $10.9B Apogee purchase instead highlights replicability and order of entry.FDA normalization and continued China-originated financings are catalysts, while restrictions that compress biotech returns remain a risk.

Josh Schimmer × Paul Matteis × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Allison DeAngelis

Record biotech secondaries are following better-than-expected data, while Angelini’s $4.1B Catalyst deal and UCB’s $2B-upfront Candid acquisition signal renewed dealmaking.Capital favors development stories over commercial biotech, while Agios’s thalassemia launch may leave 2026 consensus threefold too low and FDA turmoil keeps regulatory credibility in focus.

Grace Colón × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Brian Skorney

Novo’s CagriSema delivered 12.6% placebo-adjusted weight loss in REDEFINE 2, broadly in line with Zepbound, but the stock fell roughly 8–10%.Policy risks include MFN pricing, tariffs and vaccine trust, while PBM reform, IRA fixes and the tax bill offer upside; a report expected the week of April 7 could be a catalyst.

Peter Diamandis × Eric Schmidt × Dave Blundin

AI may have delivered only 10–15% of its eventual impact, while software development has shifted from assisted coding to autonomous orchestration within months.citeturn0search0 Recursive self-improvement remains two to three years away in San Francisco’s consensus but does not yet work, while a projected 92-gigawatt US power shortfall by 2030 makes electricity the key constraint to monitor.

Mike Yee × Eric Schmidt × Matt Gline × Yaron Werber

Biotech posted its strongest IPO quarter in four years, with $2B of Q1 IPOs and a $2.5B run rate.Roivant’s Moderna settlement could reach $2.25B, with $950M cash in July and up to $1.3B tied to the §1498 appeal.Paying the contingent amount could leave roughly “two and change” years of cash, while GLP-1 orals broaden a $100B market and threaten consumer categories.

Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh × Luba Greenwood

Graig Suvannavejh’s 15-year Sentometer shifted from record small-cap enthusiasm to “winter is coming,” pointing to probably another three months before biotech sentiment bottoms.Profitability is approaching across SMID biotech, but its value depends on reinvestment-driven growth, not modest earnings.SpringWorks’ expected Merck KGaA catalyst and Moderna’s cancer-vaccine timeline lead the watchlist, while FDA and NIH changes remain unresolved risks.

Grace Colon × Tim Opler × Graig Suvannavejh × Eric Schmidt

The Trump–Lilly–Novo agreement’s $4,000 annual Mounjaro or Ozempic price for Medicare/Medicaid may establish a “large markets, medium prices” benchmark, supporting Tim Opler’s XBI 150-plus thesis.Against a $90B pharma revenue hole and subdued deal pace, RAPT’s $35M China-licensed asset becoming a $2.2B GSK takeout illustrates pivot economics, while FDA instability, MFN reopening, China, and IPO quality remain key risks.

Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

Biotech M&A is setting records across stages: Alkermes appears to have won Avadel at $2.4B, while J&J paid $3B for Phase 1 Halda, the highest-priced Phase 1 acquisition ever per Tess Cameron.Competition is intensifying as pharma prices in 2026-27 patent cliffs, but 82% of surveyed companies worry about FDA function; early-program delays could last two or three years, while falling drug prices make volume response a key watchpoint.

Peter Diamandis × Eric Schmidt × Dave Blundin

Eric Schmidt expects America to retain the top-end AGI lead while China embeds AI everywhere and dominates inexpensive physical systems, including Unitree’s $6,000 R1; electricity, not chips, may become America’s binding constraint.Falling compute costs and open Chinese models weaken static controls and could establish global standards through price, while biology remains the catalyst most likely to force coordinated policy and a major test of startup defensibility.

Paul Matteis × John Maraganore × Eric Schmidt × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s rally is being powered by real money, with the XBI outperforming the S&P 500 by 17% since September and fund flows positive for a second straight week, though Eric Schmidt cautions fundamentals may lag the tape.FDA delays, unclear CNPV criteria and potential pricing concessions remain execution risks, while a long-awaited 2026 IPO window, strategic M&A and upcoming Alector Phase 3 data could test whether clinical risk is being rewarded sustainably.