Maya Barkin × Reyk Knühtsen × Jordan Nanos × Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros

Mapping 400+ local instruments against 3,500 projects finds 300+ moratoriums but only three projects actively affected: AWS, NorthPoint, and CoreSite.Roughly 80% of live restrictions have no capacity behind them, leaving the forecast unchanged and making behind-the-meter power more attractive; New York delays roughly 800MW by 6–10 months, while an off-grid-blocking Texas-scale ban is key risk.

Robert Boswell × Jordan Nanos

PJM’s capacity-auction modeling—not data-center demand alone—is estimated to have made $12B of the $63B spent across its last four auctions avoidable.Constrained supply, “endless summer” demand assumptions, and pay-as-clear pricing amplify marginal scarcity across 66 million people, while a September or October emergency auction could commit up to $21B through 2042–43 if data-center load fails to arrive.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × John Fetterman × Dave McCormick

Pennsylvania is positioning abundant energy and data-center investment as a national-security and middle-class revival strategy, with $92 billion committed and 4.4 gigawatts planned at Homer City.The buildout is already lifting skilled-trade wages above $100,000 and could give the U.S. a 6–8-month lead over China, but water, grid, job displacement and political opposition remain key execution risks.

Steve Hilton

Steve Hilton proposes roughly $60 billion in tax relief, funded partly by cutting California’s alleged $80 billion annual fraud, waste and abuse, to restore household purchasing power and business investment.His housing, energy, education, enforcement and electoral platform depends on overcoming union and legislative resistance while converting cost-of-living dissatisfaction into a 2026 winning coalition.

李翔 × 李丰

美以伊目标缺乏交集，短期停火困难，战争已引发所有资产齐跌、仅美元上涨的极端risk off，并将市场推向滞胀交易。若伊朗政权被颠覆，中国将面临石油结算、能源定价与西部安全三重压力；未来5—10年能源多元化、生物制造和核能力重估值得跟踪。

Raymond × Ian

电力成本并非 token 降价的唯一主因，基建、冷却、芯片与推理成本同样构成关键成本。AIDC 接入电网可能将投资摊入 rate base，表后发电、可中断负荷与 power shell 溢价值得关注；Stargate 扩建仍受资金问题约束。

刘一鸣 × 何倩然 × 杨璐 × 张从志

中国动力电池的领先来自政策需求、完整供应链与微米级制造积累，护城河集中在从 PPM 到 PPB 的一致性和良率。固态电池可能要到 2030 年前后，未来五至十年更值得观察钠离子、干法电极、直接锂提取与回收等替代路径。

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Brad Gerstner

Brent’s swing from $84 to $119 and back toward $100 pushed Goldman Sachs’ PCE forecast from 2.1% to 2.9% and GDP growth down 30 basis points, while oil’s fall to $90 suggested a short disruption.AI revenue is accelerating as Opus 4.6 and ChatGPT 5.4 shift spending into labor budgets, but durable demand remains disputed amid canceled data centers and backlash.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The Hormuz shock showed that oil supply can be closed financially through insurance even when no tanker is attacked, while gamma-driven selling helped reverse a historic spike.Jonah sees $88 oil as mostly geopolitical premium against a potential glut and prefers expressions with limited negative convexity; the G7’s 400M cumulative SPR pledge and Iran’s unchanged China exports are key catalysts.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × John Arnold

China’s NIO built a robotic factory from shovel to first car in 17 months, with suppliers within 200 miles, highlighting a speed and supply-chain advantage over aging US plants.US energy demand is clear through 2030 but permitting is the bottleneck; delivered solar PPAs remain 50%+ above 2020 lows, while advanced geothermal is Arnold’s five-year call.