MARKET UPDATE: Crypto Is Used To Buy Oil?! FED Meeting, And Economy Ripping
A sovereign-authorized USDT oil purchase, despite a failed $230M Venezuelan deal, signals stablecoins entering commodity settlement while the underlying failure reflected diligence, not crypto.AI-driven copper scarcity and Meta’s frontier push sharpen the competitive map, but model prices at 1–10% of frontier offerings and a roughly two-year superintelligence timeline leave unresolved disruption risk.
David Hunter: The Fed Just Hiked Rates: Here's What You Need to Know | The Outlier Podcast
The 25bp hike was fully priced, but the hawkish presser briefly hit E-minis and small caps as oil topped $100 and diesel exceeded $6.Hunter sees a one-and-done move, rates near a three-year top, and December hike odds trending down.His melt-up targets are S&P 10,000, silver 200, and gold 7,000, with AI correction, oil, and midterms as risks.
市场概述2026年9月8日
非农新增16.2万虽上修前值，但世界杯、开学季等季节性主导，通胀更像受关税和石油推动，而非经济过热。尚浩认为加息本身未必引发风险资产崩跌，真正需监测的是6m10y swap vol及长端失控带来的流动性冲击；AI效率提升、multiple重构和日本3%—3.5%利率风险则是中期变量。
Vol.234 宏观漫谈110｜全球流动性的困境与中国五类经济主体的金融结构转型（9.2录制）
全球流动性或已见顶，AI数据中心与美债、美股争夺资金，资本开支转向惩罚激进；李丰的英伟达实验提示延期、涨价、自由现金流下降和应收高企风险。中国融资结构与房地产、保险、A股筹码调整或重塑居民资产配置，滞胀与泡沫出清仍待观察。
市场概述2026年9月1日
Jin认为当前市场被2000年泡沫叙事牵引，但真正的AI产业革命尚未被广泛定价。他判断九月加息可能性不大，因连续两次负非农后加息自1982年以来未发生，而供应端通胀与K型经济令加息更伤实体、难压长端。AI的关键瓶颈可能是电力与审批：美国仅11-14GW项目既有路条又能通电，GE发电机排产至2031年，算力或流向有电地区，竞争格局仍待观察。
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Chamath PalihapitiyaJason CalacanisDavid SacksDavid Friedberg
Nvidia’s $96.2B revenue and $60B net profit came with 70% growth guidance versus the Street’s 45%, despite supply constraints.Salesforce’s 20%+ rally on $5.90 adjusted EPS and a $46B guide suggests agents may reinforce horizontal systems of record, while vertical SaaS remains contested.Debt also bears watching: $10T must be refinanced within 12 months at a 5.2% 30-year rate.
Global BUST Into Money Printing 'Like Never Before' - Then $20k Gold, $1k Silver: David Hunter
Hunter now targets S&P 10,000 and 25–30% upside this year, with institutions and late sell-side chasers potentially driving a parabolic advance.He also foresees a credit bust bigger than 2008–09, an 80% S&P decline, and $20 trillion-plus central-bank printing.Delayed inflation could favor commodities and pricing-power industrials, while Japan, private debt, and a secular top lasting decades remain risks.
Vol.229 宏观漫谈109｜我们正处于一个美元主导的资本周期上升阶段尾部（8.6录制）
美元计价资产正处于资本周期上升阶段尾部，增量资金不足使市场转向宽幅轮动与存量博弈。美国美债将突破40万亿美元，利息与国防开支合计接近3万亿美元、占财政收入一半以上，加息和降息都受约束。日元流动性反转、数据中心私募债与霍尔木兹海峡构成黑天鹅，后续需观察美债发行压力、黄金及中国超额储蓄是否转化为持续流入。
The AI Crash Is Over. Here's What Comes Next
The speed-crash low is probably in: the Qs rallied nearly 10% in four days, breadth broadened to multiple all-time highs, and factor volatility collapsed.Yet compute demand is accelerating, with B200 rental prices reaching just under $4 per GPU-hour and Visser reporting no instance of deceleration, while agents are already reshaping hiring.Future risk management centers on thematic breadth and factor volatility rather than generic index puts, while Bitcoin remains macro-supported but unconfirmed above the referenced level.
The melt-up goes parabolic — S&P 10,000, then an 80% bust
David Hunter sees the S&P entering a parabolic finale, targeting 10,000 from roughly 7,750 within 2-5 months as financials, materials, and metals outperform technology.He then forecasts an approximately 80% global bust driven by leverage, followed by delayed central-bank capitulation, higher inflation and rates, and a capital-preservation imperative, though his timing has repeatedly slipped and he concedes he could be wrong.