Dave Hanson × Chris Camillo × Jordan McLain

Tesla’s Austin Robotaxi launch is real but supplied no production ramp, pricing, or city timeline; at two million CyberCabs, Chris estimates $105B in annual bookings and $31B in operating profit, limited relative to Tesla’s valuation.Optimus credibility remains the unpriced upside, while third-party fleet operations could pressure Waymo, Uber, and Lyft; Chris described the program as “in many ways... kind of in shambles” as of September 2026.

李梓楠 × 徐煜萌 × 程曼祺

具身智能正从技术竞赛滑向融资与 IPO 竞速：某高估值公司去年研发约三千万元，却累计融资超五十亿元；全行业千卡以上集群据信源仅八家。港股18C催熟收入，地方数采中心占盘子至少三到四成，但八千万元项目已散伙；今年需验证一千万小时数据能否支撑 scaling，以及宇树上市后六个月的定价。

José × Andrew Kang

Humanoid robotics may be approaching the pre-ChatGPT phase of AI, with $50,000 robots requiring only 20,000 units for $1B revenue and a projected tens-of-billions industry within two to four years.Robo Strategy (NASDAQ: BOT) seeks to challenge SoftBank through public markets, favoring vertically integrated players with embodiment-specific data; US restrictions on Chinese robots could help, while robotics data businesses face a two-to-five-year durability test.

王钦文 × 王煜全

王煜全判断AI泡沫将在2029年出现，robotaxi与AI编程两条万亿美元赛道届时将更清晰。特斯拉凭借超过100万辆FSD车辆持续采集数据，或在订阅制出行终局领先，华为可能是中国唯一的挑战者。数字货币与证券数字货币化可能放大危机，而手机端行为智能和中国开源模型出海建云构成值得跟踪的后续变量。

李翔 × 李丰 × 刘鹏琦 × 颜黔杭

上半年一级市场由FOMO、分化和估值前置主导，OpenClaw把agent推向“雇数字员工”。任务轨迹与harness engineering可能在agent层沉淀数据飞轮，Anthropic押注coding，传闻ARR达160亿美元、年终可能盈亏平衡。下半年看真实数据闭环与订单鲁棒性；上市潮若失守预期，或触发一二级倒挂后的“大冷静期”。

Ansem × FaZe Banks × Andrew Kang × Owen Lynch

SpaceX rose from $135 to $225 within days, while pre-listing Hyperliquid volume reportedly reached about $1 billion daily, supporting its pre-IPO market thesis.Ansem expects attention to rotate toward HYPE and later anticipated Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, while robotics remains a timing bet: billions of robots may wait until the early 2030s and RoboStrategy’s NAV can lag private rounds.

Ansem × FaZe Banks × Jesse

Kevin frames robotics as a potential $60T labor-automation market versus roughly $200B in private-industry value.A $50K robot replacing three shifts at Walmart and Amazon illustrates $50B in revenue.Robo Strategy seeks MicroStrategy-like access to private robotics, while Figure AI’s livestream suggests accelerating adoption; commercialization speed, valuations, governance, and human-level distribution and taste remain unresolved.

Koji × 课代表立正

从 ChatGPT 聊天转向 Claude Code、Codex 或 Cursor，围绕 Agent 重构工作流，核心变化是让上下文与产出持续积累。工具和模型趋同后，差异来自 context 与 skill；应用层转向行业改造或 AI for science，而 FDE 需求与 Agent 落地仍待时间验证。

Avi Felman × Andrew Kang × Jonah Van Bourg

Andrew Kang sees private robotics as crypto in 2014–2015, with market capitalization rising from $20B to $100–150B and potentially 100x upside toward a tens-of-trillions destination.Robo Strategy applies MicroStrategy’s accretive issuance model to private robotics, while a roughly one-year path from GPT-3 to GPT-5-level robotics, rising VC interest and severe failure risk make execution, NAV premiums and valuation marks the key watchpoints.

Raymond × Robert Wu

全球看中国正从“大市场”转向“学习对象”，而中国AI创业者越来越少用“中国的OpenAI”定义自己。机器人动作已强但数据稀缺，商用运行可能仅一两万台且大多沉睡，出货量—数据—模型的链条被指叠加五个“可能”。消费叙事仍偏弱，但百胜中国肯德基客单价在去年三四季度至今年一季度企稳甚至复苏；L4普及仍受就业与政策时间尺度制约。