伊朗如何影响乌克兰战争（gemchanger_ltd）
gemchanger_ltd认为，乌克兰正从零星袭击炼油厂转向协同攻击俄罗斯整个石油系统，这可能让由伊朗驱动的能源冲击变得更难逆转。 他估计，俄罗斯40–50%的出口能力已经停摆，考虑到网络效应，实际影响可能达到60–70%，因为西方制造的设备在制裁下难以替换：「没了就是没了。」
他的迪拜房地产做空获利颇丰。 他说，该指数连续3或4个交易日每天下跌约7%，累计跌幅约30%；杠杆放大了收益，一些公寓据称从约30万美元重估至原价一半。
他的Brent交易赚到了钱，但也成了放弃纪律的案例。 他抓住了油价向110–120美元运行的第一波行情，在约90美元附近卖出，随后反复开仓和平仓：「从盈利角度看，这是笔好交易，但我违反了所有交易规则。」
Polymarket剩余的优势，越来越集中在破解晦涩结算细节的专家，以及少数适应新费用机制的专业团队手中。 Map和Kai被认为是最大赢家；Carr据称在发现规则漏洞后，以1美分买入50,000股YES，将500美元变成了33,000美元；gemchanger_ltd认为，如今只剩5到10支真正专业的机器人团队。
霍尔木兹海峡的风险本质上是一种保险机制，而不只是物理封锁。 伊朗只需要制造可信的导弹威胁，就能让油轮保险变得不经济；即使正式协议恢复通行，只要自身受到威胁，它仍可以随时威胁按下「那个按钮」。
他认为，伊朗的廉价能源和Bitcoin挖矿构成了一条规避制裁的路径，把碳氢化合物直接转化为进口能力。 他称，伊朗生产1枚BTC的成本约为1,000美元，美国则为60,000–70,000美元；伊朗在全球算力中的占比接近5%。
尽管对宏观局势抱有极端确信，他拒绝假装自己确定无疑，也不愿披露已经敲定的仓位。 他说：「我不是救世主。」他的实际结论是，应通过分散配置股票和不同形式的货币，为一场不可逆的财富转移做准备，而不是期待旧秩序回归。
1. 地区脆弱性带来了干净利落的交易，石油则暴露了纪律问题
如今基本退出Polymarket、正在打造终端Cold Vision的gemchanger_ltd，仍主要在Hyperliquid交易。他的迪拜做空建立在此前的房地产经纪经验之上：当地房价高度依赖地区安全与繁荣，战争直接击中了估值的核心前提。
他说，迪拜房地产指数下跌约30%，其中有3或4个交易日单日跌幅接近7%；部分价值30万美元的公寓价格几乎腰斩。被问及如何获得这一交易品种时，他说自己询问了经纪商，并猜测ICE可能提供该产品。
Brent的交易过程更为混乱。他抓住了油价向110–120美元运行的第一波行情，在约90美元附近离场，随后随着行情延续反复开仓和平仓：整体仍然盈利，但「我违反了所有交易规则」。
2. 预测市场的超额收益已收窄至专家和理解费用机制的团队
gemchanger_ltd将Map和Kai列为伊朗冲突交易者中的佼佼者，不排除其中可能有内幕人士。他尤其认可Map对地区局势的理解；一些规模较小、盈利达到100,000–200,000美元的账户也做得很好。
当Thread Guy问及Carr时，gemchanger_ltd描述了一个账户：该账户在一个有明确到期日的黎巴嫩行动市场中，以1美分买入50,000股YES，最终将约500美元变成33,000美元。其优势来自一项规则漏洞：事件最初未被确认，后来才得到确认。嘉宾不确定这笔交易发生在昨天还是今天。
Polymarket先后推出动态费用和静态费用，并调整推荐计划，机器人交易者的生存空间因此大幅收窄。gemchanger_ltd估计，目前只剩5到10支真正专业的团队；Gabagool和「Jane Street India」等机器人要么已经消失，要么可能通过新账户交易，但他表示无法确认。他不愿进入这一领域，因为竞争「极其激烈」。
3. 乌克兰正在把俄罗斯石油网络作为一个系统发动攻击
嘉宾的框架是：此前乌克兰对炼油厂的袭击零散、令人烦恼但可以修复；进入2026年初，行动扩大至港口、管道、泵站、储油设施、炼油厂，甚至海上的油轮。「他们开始同时攻击所有环节。」
他列举的案例体现了行动规模：新罗西斯克，被描述为一个日产100,000桶的黑海枢纽；普里莫尔斯克，据称日产出口量超过1 million桶；乌斯季卢加约30–35座储罐，连续3个夜晚遭到袭击；以及基里希，据称占俄罗斯炼油产能约7%。此外，一架海军无人机据报击中了伊斯坦布尔附近一艘装载俄罗斯原油的油轮。
到3月底，他援引专家估算称，俄罗斯40–50%的出口能力已经停摆；随后他推测，由于相互连接的设施无法独立运行，实际有效中断程度可能达到60–70%。维修才是真正的瓶颈：大量设备依赖西方制造的系统，包括Siemens和Honeywell，而在制裁条件下，这些设备难以重新订购。他更广泛的结论是确定性的：「这是一场无人机战争」——任何国家的能源基础设施，在持续袭击下都将变得脆弱。
4. 即使没有永久封锁，霍尔木兹也能在经济意义上保持关闭
gemchanger_ltd拒绝预测Brent会涨到200美元，但认为能源危机将持续。他认为，俄罗斯已经无法继续供应同等规模的折价Urals原油；同时他称，俄罗斯将从4月1日开始限制对中国、印度等友好国家的石油出口，也不会出口天然气，这将威胁一个历史上由廉价俄罗斯能源驱动的欧洲经济体。
Thread Guy的反驳最终变成部分认同：伊朗或许发现了自己此前并未完全意识到的杠杆。嘉宾认为，这种杠杆来自海上保险——油轮在物理上可能通过海峡，但保险公司无法承受导弹袭击、船只损失以及生态灾难的风险。因此，伊朗不需要压倒性的海军力量，只要形成可信威胁，就能让霍尔木兹持续受损。
对于战争，他的预测严峻但保留了余地：全面战争可能变成「第二个伊拉克」，但伊朗拥有80–90 million人口、加固的地下基础设施以及数十年的准备。不过，他并未公开交易这一判断，也没有最终确定仓位：「我想等一切发生时再开仓……我不是救世主。」
5. 伊朗把搁置的碳氢化合物转化为绕开常规金融体系的购买力
他的加密货币机制始于受制裁能源，最终转化为进口能力：伊朗利用廉价石油和天然气发电，工业矿工将Bitcoin卖给央行，央行再绕开美元和SWIFT体系购买进口商品。「他们把碳氢化合物……直接转化成了加密货币。」
他估计，伊朗挖出1枚BTC的成本约为1,000美元，美国为60,000–70,000美元，俄罗斯约为10,000美元；伊朗可能控制全球约5%的算力，位列全球第五。他还称，约10 million伊朗人持有加密货币，而IRGC控制着约一半的加密货币流动。
当被问及是否存在乐观因素时，他拒绝接受这个前提。在他看来，乌克兰–俄罗斯、伊朗–美国以及另一个AI情景，都指向一场不可逆的财富转移；他认为AI将让全球一半人口失业。他的应对方式是拼命赚钱，把资金分散存放在不同股票或不同形式的货币中，并接受这样一个事实：「不可能回到90年代了，那时Tupac还在做音乐，LeBron还在投三分。」
完整逐字稿
Yo, what's up? Wow, Mr. Gem Changer, we meet again. How are you, bro?
I'm fine. How about you?
I'm good, man. A lot's happened since you last came on. Last time, I had about 4,000 subscribers, I guess. But now, time has changed. I blew you up?
Nah, still not up, but I'm on my road.
You're on your road? Is it a goal, or are you just going along with the ride?
Yeah, to be honest, it's my goal. I want some Bruce Wayne. I want to have 100,000 subscribers and then come to you once again, and we'll talk like we're players playing on the same field. You'll bring some people to the stream next time, not just me, kind of thing.
Nah, no, no. I respect you a lot, but I want to level up a bit.
Hell yeah. Welcome back. We can get right into it. A lot's happened since you last came on. We basically spent the last 4 weeks watching Trump interviews and talking about the Iran conflict. Where are you at with that right now? Are you trading?
I'm kind of out of Polymarket right now. I'm building my own software, a Polymarket terminal called Cold Vision. I'm trading, but mostly on Hyperliquid. I haven't touched Polymarket in a while.
I guess I traded Brent when the whole thing started, and I traded Dubai real estate. I shorted it.
No. You trade Dubai real estate? Please walk me through the Dubai real estate trade.
I shorted it. I already fixed it.
When the war started, it was literally obvious that there was a fund, mostly an index. It's called the Dubai real estate index. They also have the construction index.
When the conflict started, I shorted it because the prices of the buildings in Dubai are based mostly on the safety and the wellness of the region. When the region collapsed, the prices of the real estate dropped heavily. Flats that cost at least $300,000 now cost 2 times less.
This index is mostly an index of all the companies that build or have property in Dubai.
How do you even trade that? How are you trading that? I wanted to trade that. Why can't I trade that?
I just asked my broker. I don't really know how to trade it. I guess ICE offered it, didn't they?
Yeah, maybe. I just asked my broker. How did you do on it? How much did it move?
I guess it moved 30%, but I had great leverage.
It moved 30%?
Every time the market opened, it would drop 10%. It was a streak of 3 or 4 days when the real estate index dropped about 7% each day. With great leverage, that's great profit.
That's a crazy move. Nice trade. Have you traded real estate before?
Yeah, I was basically a real estate agent back there, so I understand it a little bit.
I mostly traded oil. I'm not an expert, but my major was in the oil and gas field.
What does that mean?
My major was finance in the oil and gas industry.
Really? That's it? How did you do on the Brent trade?
Not really good. I secured a good profit on the first run when it hit $110 or $120, but then I was greedy. I wanted more.
I sold my position at around $90, and then I reopened it. It was madness. I reopened, I closed, I reopened, I closed.
The main thing is that when a trade moves straight up 4 times, you can't really be sure whether it has closed or opened. It was a good trade profit-wise, but I failed all my trading rules there.
What rule did you fail?
I broke all my trading rules. I made a lot of stupid moves.
Look at this. Do you have one of these? Can you see my mirror?
Yeah, yeah. No, I don't have it. I have a huge bottle of what we have in Russia called Oil.
Oh, it's called Oil?
I can send you one.
Yeah, yeah, send it to me.
It's vodka.
Yeah, it's like a huge bottle of vodka, like Beluga, but it's called Oil.
Google it.
Okay, I'll look it up.
You haven't been trading Polymarket very much, but I'm sure you're following it. Who has been trading the Iran conflict the best? What are the people who are trading it well doing?
I guess Kai made a lot, and Map made a lot.
Map is good. I like Map.
Yeah, he is pretty well known in the space. He's an OG in the Polyfam. I always watch his moves, and they're pretty brilliant. He understands this region pretty well.
There are a lot of small players. I think Golem deserves a mention. I don't know if he has $100,000 in PnL, but he deserves a mention. There are a lot of players with $100,000 or $200,000 in PnL who deserve a mention. They traded very well.
But the goats are Kai and Map. They made the biggest amount of money, except for possible insiders, who we're not counting.
Map is really good. What is Carr making most of his money doing? What is his style? How was he so
He is actually a really impressive account. He has a great trade right now. He turned $500 into $30,000. Yesterday, he turned 1 cent into the resolution. He just caught a rule inefficiency. You can check it out on his Twitter page.
$500 to $30,000?
Yeah, it was yesterday, I guess, or today. I don't really know.
Let me pull up his Twitter right now.
It was on some strike, like Israel on some strike. It was unconfirmed, but then it was confirmed. It's that type of stuff.
$500 to $33,000. “One of my craziest wins ever on Polymarket. 10,000%. I bought 50,000 YES shares at 1% after discovering something others did not spot on ‘Israel takes military action in Lebanon on date.’”
Whoa, that's an insane $500 to $30,000. That's nasty.
He has basically 2 or 3, maybe even 5 trades like that. But that was a few months ago. I don't really watch him, but he's too big for you not to see those results.
Yeah, he's impressive, obviously. That is nasty.
What is this thing you posted about $700,000 profit every month?
That's a bot. Just an algorithm. $100,000 weekly.
What is going on with these algorithmic bots on Polymarket?
This market has changed a lot because Polymarket brought in fees. They first brought in dynamic fees, then they brought in static fees a few days ago, when the referral program changed.
There are a few teams—not just single quants or programmers—that make a lot, maybe one mil a month. There are only a few of them, maybe 5 or 10 people.
The rest of the bots, like Gabagool and the Jane Street India one, are dead. Or maybe they're trading from new accounts. You can't really know.
Money is still being made for sure. There's always money to be earned, but there are far fewer people than back then.
What are you running? What are you running?
What do you mean?
As far as bots and algorithmic trading goes.
Bots? I don't touch that field. It's insanely competitive. I don't even try, to be honest. Now I don't even want to think about it.
I'm building my own terminal and that's it—an ecosystem product. It's not some algorithmic thing.
Okay, cool. What do you think about some of the biggest Iran markets, like boots on the ground? How are people positioned on that? Do you think that's going to happen?
I really understand how things are happening locally, but I'm really impressed by how this whole regional situation happened.
I watched a lot of your streams, but do you know what happened in Russia a few days ago, when a huge refinery got hit? Do you know that?
The oil refinery? About 40% of Russia's oil is on fire, right?
Yeah. The most important thing is that Ukraine started hitting Russian refineries back in 2023 or 2024. It's not something that started suddenly in 2022.
At first, it was annoying but fixable. They fixed the refineries quickly. They hit a refinery here and a refinery there, but nothing systematic.
In early 2026, a few days ago, they completely changed their approach. They started going after everything at once—not just refineries, but the ports where tankers load, the pipelines, pumping stations, storage facilities, and even tankers at sea that are moving. Actual ships in the water.
In March, they hit Novorossiysk, one of the main Black Sea export hubs. About 100,000 barrels a day were knocked out, with all the equipment hit at once.
Then they hit Primorsk, which is the biggest Baltic terminal. It exports something over 1 million barrels a day.
Whoa, that's a big number.
Then they hit Ust-Luga 3 nights in a row—30-something storage tanks. Imagine 30 or 35 storage tanks. Even people in Finland could see the glow across the water.
Holy.
Then the big one was the Kirishi refinery, I guess it's called that. The main thing is that it's one of the 3 largest in the country. It happened yesterday, I guess—7% of all Russian refining capacity in one facility.
Whoa.
The same day, a naval drone hit a tanker near Istanbul carrying Russian crude. This all happened in the last 4 or 5 days. The naval drone strike was yesterday or 2 days ago. It's happening right now.
If we aggregate the picture, by late March, about 40%—or, according to some experts, 50%—of Russia's oil export capacity is offline.
If you imagine how big it is, it’s insane. The main thing here is that the repair situation makes it worse. You can’t repair it. Those refineries use Western-made equipment. They made some Russian solutions, but a lot of things run on Siemens and Honeywell, if you know those companies. Under sanctions, you can’t order a replacement. You just can’t build it at once. So, if they’re gone, they’re gone.
Even if we’re talking about that, it’s worth noting that this isn’t really Russia’s weakness or something. It’s a drone-warfare story. Any country’s energy infrastructure would be vulnerable under this kind of sustained campaign.
Are you long oil on this?
No, I’m not trading. I have some conviction, but I’m not public about it. I’m talking with some people about it. It’s mostly buying options on oil because I worked in that field, but it’s not speculation on the market. It’s not short or long. It’s mostly buying crude or selling, if that’s possible.
How big of an escalation is this for oil, in tandem with what’s happening in Iran? We haven’t really been following Russia–Ukraine that much.
It’s insane. People don’t even understand how big it is. Basically, in Russia, the refineries are kind of linked. If you break one, the second can’t work properly. If you hit the one refining 7% or 10%, you’re mostly hitting 15%, because another refinery depends on the one that got hit and also isn’t working properly.
The experts say 40% to 50%, but in reality it’s mostly like 60% or even 70%. I don’t really know. Right now, Russia is the one and only possible supplier to Europe for the energy crisis that’s coming. I guess we should buy a horse. If somebody has a car, I don’t really know.
I can’t really see how it can be repaired. Sure, some capacity can be reopened, but how do you repair 70% of Russia’s production capacity? You can’t do it in 1 day.
You think we’re in an energy crisis that can’t be reversed, basically?
It can’t be reversed, but the price won’t drop to where it was. I don’t see how that’s possible. I don’t even see how it got there.
Basically, the price went down because Russia had a price limit. In Russia, we have Urals. By its features, it’s not better than Brent, but it’s pretty good oil. Basically, it was trading at a discount to Brent. If Brent was costing $70, Urals would trade at $60.
But when the special military operation happened, Europe put a limit on every barrel of Russian oil sold. Oil prices dropped because Russia sold a lot, and they sold it at a discount. But now you can’t even move the market lower because Russia can’t sell as much oil at such cheap prices.
I don’t really think the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. I don’t see it. I really think Trump will escalate that.
What about the headline that Russia is banning oil exports starting April 1?
Yeah, that’s true. Basically, they won’t export to anyone except friendly countries like China and India, right? They also won’t export gas. That’s very important—mostly to Europe.
A lot of people don’t know that Europe’s economic rise was literally supplied by cheap Russian oil and cheap Russian gas.
Is Brent going to $200?
I don’t really know, but I’m bullish on some kind of energy crisis. Not bullish exactly—I don’t think this can be reversed. Even if Trump says it’s over and that there’s a deal, and that Hormuz will work as it did before, I don’t think that’s possible.
I kind of agree with you on this, by the way. It feels like Iran has this newfound power that they maybe didn’t fully realize they had, and they’ve now exercised it. It feels unlikely that things go back to exactly normal the way they were before.
It’s like the N-word—nuclear—what if Iran uses the H-word, the Strait of Hormuz? They will always threaten that. “We will close it, we will close it, we will close it.” If Iran feels threatened, they will close it.
If you think deeper, they don’t even need insane resources to close it. They just need ballistic missiles. The main thing is that ships aren’t going through Hormuz because of—I don’t really know what it’s called in English—when you transport oil, you pay for it so it will be insured.
Toll?
Yeah, like a toll.
Insurance?
Yeah, insurance. The main reason they aren’t going through is that nobody wants to take the insurance. Nobody wants to offer the insurance, because if Iran hits that ship with a ballistic missile, the insurance company will go bankrupt. The regional ecological crisis would also be insanely big.
That’s why they aren’t going through Hormuz. It’s not because there are some people saying you can’t go through it. They just don’t want to lose a lot of money and go bankrupt—mostly the insurance companies.
And when you have Iran, whose supreme leader has been killed, and the people leading the country right now are pissed off and want to defeat the United States, do you really think that even if Trump makes a deal, those Iranians who are pissed off will say, “Okay, we won’t even threaten that button”? I think it’s irreversible. They already killed him, and that’s it. They won’t even forget about it. I’m talking about the people who are running the country right now.
Damn. What do you think happens with Trump and Iran? Do you think they go for full escalation, or does he just talk to the Supreme Leader?
To be honest, I really think it will be a separation. I think it’s basically a second Iraq.
Really?
The main thing is that Iraq was 10 times weaker than Iran is right now. If you were short Iraq back then, it was an insanely weak country. It had already been at war with Iran for 7 years.
If you think deeper, the United States came well after the Iran–Iraq War. Iraq was already weak. But right now, Iran is insanely powerful. They have 80 million or 90 million people. They are a superpower.
If Trump starts not just a military operation that occurs for a few days, but a full-scale war, I think you should pack some boots and know how to shoot an AK. It’s inevitable.
You think I’m going to get drafted?
It will be an insane war. No, I think, yeah, because Iran is a superpower.
You said it would be a second Ukraine. How many people—
Not you. I don’t really know how the draft works in the United States.
Dude, you told me it would be a second Ukraine. How many people—
You really think that if Trump starts the operation, it will occur in a few days?
Dude.
You have a country with all its infrastructure underground. They have prepared for this war for decades. You really think it will happen in a few days? It’s impossible.
Why don’t you have any positions open?
I don’t really want to talk about that. I have a lot of conviction, but I haven’t settled down. I want to open my position when everything happens, because I’m not sure. I’m not the Messiah.
Yeah, yeah. My bad. I was just—you got me a little scared, so I’m like, “Fuck.” How do you trade this? Not you literally, but how do people with stocks or crypto trade it? What do you do? Do you just wait?
It feels like the stock market is finally starting to react, like, “Oh, this is real. We’re not getting out of this right now,” for the first couple of days.
The basic information is that we’re in crypto right now, so let’s talk about crypto. Crypto meets geopolitics, right? I promise you, almost nobody gets the full picture.
We already talked about Iran. They can’t export oil normally. They can’t use SWIFT. They can’t touch dollars. So they have massive resources sitting there. Even with the war started, Iran has insane reserves.
But what they figured out is that they use stranded oil and gas to generate electricity dirt cheap—like a few cents per kilowatt-hour, some of the cheapest in the world. That electricity powers industrial-scale Bitcoin mining. Have you heard of it?
No.
The miners sell their BTC, their Bitcoin, to the central bank. The central bank uses it to buy imports. They turn hydrocarbons—oil overall—directly into cryptocurrency.
Basically, they’re exploiting the difference between countries. For Iran, it costs something like $1,000 to produce 1 Bitcoin, while in the United States, I think it costs $60,000 or $70,000, if I’m not mistaken. The economics are almost comical in Iran. Their cost to mine 1 Bitcoin is something like $1,000. They can mine Bitcoin at a rate of $1,000 per Bitcoin and nuke the market.
It’s like 70 times.
Where can I read about this?
I guess you could just look up the cost of mining Bitcoin in different countries, and you’ll see it.
Okay.
Maps that I like show that, for Russia, generating Bitcoin costs around $10K. For the USA, it’s mostly one-to-one. China is also cheap. Iran is also cheap. The oil empires are also cheap.
So basically, Iran can instantly nuke all the crypto stocks.
Bitcoin was mostly mined because they’re cheap. Yeah, I heard Mando talk about this, actually. They mine it very cheaply. You can freeze accounts and cut SWIFT, but you can’t freeze jewels. I don’t figure out how to turn energy into money. No government can stop it.
Damn. And if you research more—
Iran controls something like 5% of the global Bitcoin hash rate.
I didn’t know that. I thought it was closer to 10% at one point.
They’re fifth in the world.
That’s true, actually. It’s crazy. And their military controls over half of the crypto flows. Really?
About 10 million Iranians hold crypto, and the IRGC holds around half of the crypto flows. Mostly, when the U.S. fights with Iran at a cost of $50K per Bitcoin, Iran is fighting for $1K per Bitcoin.
Damn. Okay, before you go, give me an optimistic scenario for this ending soon and smoothly, without market destruction.
To be honest, I really think that the wealth transfer has already started. You can’t just go back. You can’t reverse the Ukraine-Russia thing. You can’t reverse the Iran-U.S. thing. The world is changing. You just need to prepare for the massive changes.
AI will lay off half of the world’s population. We have another scenario of the wealth transfer. You need to hustle and save money in different stocks or different types of money. That’s it. You just need to prepare for the wealth transfer. It’s already started.
It can’t go back to the ’90s, when Tupac was making music and LeBron was throwing threes. No, the wealth transfer is already here. You can’t reverse it.
That was the optimistic take.
Yeah, that was optimistic, because I’m a realist. I don’t want to say these stupid things that will never happen. I could say that every U.S. military soldier will bring flowers to Iran, everything will stop in 24 hours, Trump is the leader of the world, and everyone is happy.
I kind of like that one.
Yeah, that sounds good, but unfortunately—
gemchanger_ltd, it’s always a pleasure, man. Is there anything else you want to say?
Not really. Thanks for inviting me. You actually gave us—I got to learn how this Russia oil refinery stuff works. I’ve been kind of ignoring it, but that was actually really good information. Thank you, bro.
I appreciate you coming on.
Yeah, thanks.
All right, brother. Have a good one. Peace.