# How Iran is Influencing the Ukraine War (gemchanger_ltd) Thread Guy · 2026-03-28 · 27 min · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRNieWVKM-M ## Transcript Thread Guy Yo, what's up? Wow, Mr. Gem Changer, we meet again. How are you, bro? gemchanger_ltd I'm fine. How about you? Thread Guy I'm good, man. A lot's happened since you last came on. Last time, I had about 4,000 subscribers, I guess. But now, time has changed. I blew you up? gemchanger_ltd Nah, still not up, but I'm on my road. Thread Guy You're on your road? Is it a goal, or are you just going along with the ride? gemchanger_ltd Yeah, to be honest, it's my goal. I want some Bruce Wayne. I want to have 100,000 subscribers and then come to you once again, and we'll talk like we're players playing on the same field. You'll bring some people to the stream next time, not just me, kind of thing. Thread Guy Nah, no, no. I respect you a lot, but I want to level up a bit. Hell yeah. Welcome back. We can get right into it. A lot's happened since you last came on. We basically spent the last 4 weeks watching Trump interviews and talking about the Iran conflict. Where are you at with that right now? Are you trading? gemchanger_ltd I'm kind of out of Polymarket right now. I'm building my own software, a Polymarket terminal called Cold Vision. I'm trading, but mostly on Hyperliquid. I haven't touched Polymarket in a while. I guess I traded Brent when the whole thing started, and I traded Dubai real estate. I shorted it. Thread Guy No. You trade Dubai real estate? Please walk me through the Dubai real estate trade. gemchanger_ltd I shorted it. I already fixed it. When the war started, it was literally obvious that there was a fund, mostly an index. It's called the Dubai real estate index. They also have the construction index. When the conflict started, I shorted it because the prices of the buildings in Dubai are based mostly on the safety and the wellness of the region. When the region collapsed, the prices of the real estate dropped heavily. Flats that cost at least $300,000 now cost 2 times less. This index is mostly an index of all the companies that build or have property in Dubai. Thread Guy How do you even trade that? How are you trading that? I wanted to trade that. Why can't I trade that? gemchanger_ltd I just asked my broker. I don't really know how to trade it. I guess ICE offered it, didn't they? Thread Guy Yeah, maybe. I just asked my broker. How did you do on it? How much did it move? gemchanger_ltd I guess it moved 30%, but I had great leverage. Thread Guy It moved 30%? gemchanger_ltd Every time the market opened, it would drop 10%. It was a streak of 3 or 4 days when the real estate index dropped about 7% each day. With great leverage, that's great profit. Thread Guy That's a crazy move. Nice trade. Have you traded real estate before? gemchanger_ltd Yeah, I was basically a real estate agent back there, so I understand it a little bit. I mostly traded oil. I'm not an expert, but my major was in the oil and gas field. Thread Guy What does that mean? gemchanger_ltd My major was finance in the oil and gas industry. Thread Guy Really? That's it? How did you do on the Brent trade? gemchanger_ltd Not really good. I secured a good profit on the first run when it hit $110 or $120, but then I was greedy. I wanted more. I sold my position at around $90, and then I reopened it. It was madness. I reopened, I closed, I reopened, I closed. The main thing is that when a trade moves straight up 4 times, you can't really be sure whether it has closed or opened. It was a good trade profit-wise, but I failed all my trading rules there. Thread Guy What rule did you fail? gemchanger_ltd I broke all my trading rules. I made a lot of stupid moves. Thread Guy Look at this. Do you have one of these? Can you see my mirror? gemchanger_ltd Yeah, yeah. No, I don't have it. I have a huge bottle of what we have in Russia called Oil. Thread Guy Oh, it's called Oil? gemchanger_ltd I can send you one. Thread Guy Yeah, yeah, send it to me. gemchanger_ltd It's vodka. Thread Guy Yeah, it's like a huge bottle of vodka, like Beluga, but it's called Oil. gemchanger_ltd Google it. Thread Guy Okay, I'll look it up. You haven't been trading Polymarket very much, but I'm sure you're following it. Who has been trading the Iran conflict the best? What are the people who are trading it well doing? gemchanger_ltd I guess Kai made a lot, and Map made a lot. Thread Guy Map is good. I like Map. gemchanger_ltd Yeah, he is pretty well known in the space. He's an OG in the Polyfam. I always watch his moves, and they're pretty brilliant. He understands this region pretty well. There are a lot of small players. I think Golem deserves a mention. I don't know if he has $100,000 in PnL, but he deserves a mention. There are a lot of players with $100,000 or $200,000 in PnL who deserve a mention. They traded very well. But the goats are Kai and Map. They made the biggest amount of money, except for possible insiders, who we're not counting. Thread Guy Map is really good. What is Carr making most of his money doing? What is his style? How was he so gemchanger_ltd He is actually a really impressive account. He has a great trade right now. He turned $500 into $30,000. Yesterday, he turned 1 cent into the resolution. He just caught a rule inefficiency. You can check it out on his Twitter page. Thread Guy $500 to $30,000? gemchanger_ltd Yeah, it was yesterday, I guess, or today. I don't really know. Thread Guy Let me pull up his Twitter right now. gemchanger_ltd It was on some strike, like Israel on some strike. It was unconfirmed, but then it was confirmed. It's that type of stuff. Thread Guy $500 to $33,000. “One of my craziest wins ever on Polymarket. 10,000%. I bought 50,000 YES shares at 1% after discovering something others did not spot on ‘Israel takes military action in Lebanon on date.’” Whoa, that's an insane $500 to $30,000. That's nasty. gemchanger_ltd He has basically 2 or 3, maybe even 5 trades like that. But that was a few months ago. I don't really watch him, but he's too big for you not to see those results. Thread Guy Yeah, he's impressive, obviously. That is nasty. What is this thing you posted about $700,000 profit every month? gemchanger_ltd That's a bot. Just an algorithm. $100,000 weekly. Thread Guy What is going on with these algorithmic bots on Polymarket? gemchanger_ltd This market has changed a lot because Polymarket brought in fees. They first brought in dynamic fees, then they brought in static fees a few days ago, when the referral program changed. There are a few teams—not just single quants or programmers—that make a lot, maybe one mil a month. There are only a few of them, maybe 5 or 10 people. The rest of the bots, like Gabagool and the Jane Street India one, are dead. Or maybe they're trading from new accounts. You can't really know. Money is still being made for sure. There's always money to be earned, but there are far fewer people than back then. Thread Guy What are you running? What are you running? gemchanger_ltd What do you mean? Thread Guy As far as bots and algorithmic trading goes. gemchanger_ltd Bots? I don't touch that field. It's insanely competitive. I don't even try, to be honest. Now I don't even want to think about it. I'm building my own terminal and that's it—an ecosystem product. It's not some algorithmic thing. Thread Guy Okay, cool. What do you think about some of the biggest Iran markets, like boots on the ground? How are people positioned on that? Do you think that's going to happen? gemchanger_ltd I really understand how things are happening locally, but I'm really impressed by how this whole regional situation happened. I watched a lot of your streams, but do you know what happened in Russia a few days ago, when a huge refinery got hit? Do you know that? Thread Guy The oil refinery? About 40% of Russia's oil is on fire, right? gemchanger_ltd Yeah. The most important thing is that Ukraine started hitting Russian refineries back in 2023 or 2024. It's not something that started suddenly in 2022. At first, it was annoying but fixable. They fixed the refineries quickly. They hit a refinery here and a refinery there, but nothing systematic. In early 2026, a few days ago, they completely changed their approach. They started going after everything at once—not just refineries, but the ports where tankers load, the pipelines, pumping stations, storage facilities, and even tankers at sea that are moving. Actual ships in the water. In March, they hit Novorossiysk, one of the main Black Sea export hubs. About 100,000 barrels a day were knocked out, with all the equipment hit at once. Then they hit Primorsk, which is the biggest Baltic terminal. It exports something over 1 million barrels a day. Thread Guy Whoa, that's a big number. gemchanger_ltd Then they hit Ust-Luga 3 nights in a row—30-something storage tanks. Imagine 30 or 35 storage tanks. Even people in Finland could see the glow across the water. Thread Guy Holy. gemchanger_ltd Then the big one was the Kirishi refinery, I guess it's called that. The main thing is that it's one of the 3 largest in the country. It happened yesterday, I guess—7% of all Russian refining capacity in one facility. Thread Guy Whoa. gemchanger_ltd The same day, a naval drone hit a tanker near Istanbul carrying Russian crude. This all happened in the last 4 or 5 days. The naval drone strike was yesterday or 2 days ago. It's happening right now. If we aggregate the picture, by late March, about 40%—or, according to some experts, 50%—of Russia's oil export capacity is offline. If you imagine how big it is, it’s insane. The main thing here is that the repair situation makes it worse. You can’t repair it. Those refineries use Western-made equipment. They made some Russian solutions, but a lot of things run on Siemens and Honeywell, if you know those companies. Under sanctions, you can’t order a replacement. You just can’t build it at once. So, if they’re gone, they’re gone. Even if we’re talking about that, it’s worth noting that this isn’t really Russia’s weakness or something. It’s a drone-warfare story. Any country’s energy infrastructure would be vulnerable under this kind of sustained campaign. Thread Guy Are you long oil on this? gemchanger_ltd No, I’m not trading. I have some conviction, but I’m not public about it. I’m talking with some people about it. It’s mostly buying options on oil because I worked in that field, but it’s not speculation on the market. It’s not short or long. It’s mostly buying crude or selling, if that’s possible. Thread Guy How big of an escalation is this for oil, in tandem with what’s happening in Iran? We haven’t really been following Russia–Ukraine that much. gemchanger_ltd It’s insane. People don’t even understand how big it is. Basically, in Russia, the refineries are kind of linked. If you break one, the second can’t work properly. If you hit the one refining 7% or 10%, you’re mostly hitting 15%, because another refinery depends on the one that got hit and also isn’t working properly. The experts say 40% to 50%, but in reality it’s mostly like 60% or even 70%. I don’t really know. Right now, Russia is the one and only possible supplier to Europe for the energy crisis that’s coming. I guess we should buy a horse. If somebody has a car, I don’t really know. I can’t really see how it can be repaired. Sure, some capacity can be reopened, but how do you repair 70% of Russia’s production capacity? You can’t do it in 1 day. Thread Guy You think we’re in an energy crisis that can’t be reversed, basically? gemchanger_ltd It can’t be reversed, but the price won’t drop to where it was. I don’t see how that’s possible. I don’t even see how it got there. Basically, the price went down because Russia had a price limit. In Russia, we have Urals. By its features, it’s not better than Brent, but it’s pretty good oil. Basically, it was trading at a discount to Brent. If Brent was costing $70, Urals would trade at $60. But when the special military operation happened, Europe put a limit on every barrel of Russian oil sold. Oil prices dropped because Russia sold a lot, and they sold it at a discount. But now you can’t even move the market lower because Russia can’t sell as much oil at such cheap prices. I don’t really think the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. I don’t see it. I really think Trump will escalate that. Thread Guy What about the headline that Russia is banning oil exports starting April 1? gemchanger_ltd Yeah, that’s true. Basically, they won’t export to anyone except friendly countries like China and India, right? They also won’t export gas. That’s very important—mostly to Europe. A lot of people don’t know that Europe’s economic rise was literally supplied by cheap Russian oil and cheap Russian gas. Thread Guy Is Brent going to $200? gemchanger_ltd I don’t really know, but I’m bullish on some kind of energy crisis. Not bullish exactly—I don’t think this can be reversed. Even if Trump says it’s over and that there’s a deal, and that Hormuz will work as it did before, I don’t think that’s possible. Thread Guy I kind of agree with you on this, by the way. It feels like Iran has this newfound power that they maybe didn’t fully realize they had, and they’ve now exercised it. It feels unlikely that things go back to exactly normal the way they were before. gemchanger_ltd It’s like the N-word—nuclear—what if Iran uses the H-word, the Strait of Hormuz? They will always threaten that. “We will close it, we will close it, we will close it.” If Iran feels threatened, they will close it. If you think deeper, they don’t even need insane resources to close it. They just need ballistic missiles. The main thing is that ships aren’t going through Hormuz because of—I don’t really know what it’s called in English—when you transport oil, you pay for it so it will be insured. Thread Guy Toll? gemchanger_ltd Yeah, like a toll. Thread Guy Insurance? gemchanger_ltd Yeah, insurance. The main reason they aren’t going through is that nobody wants to take the insurance. Nobody wants to offer the insurance, because if Iran hits that ship with a ballistic missile, the insurance company will go bankrupt. The regional ecological crisis would also be insanely big. That’s why they aren’t going through Hormuz. It’s not because there are some people saying you can’t go through it. They just don’t want to lose a lot of money and go bankrupt—mostly the insurance companies. And when you have Iran, whose supreme leader has been killed, and the people leading the country right now are pissed off and want to defeat the United States, do you really think that even if Trump makes a deal, those Iranians who are pissed off will say, “Okay, we won’t even threaten that button”? I think it’s irreversible. They already killed him, and that’s it. They won’t even forget about it. I’m talking about the people who are running the country right now. Thread Guy Damn. What do you think happens with Trump and Iran? Do you think they go for full escalation, or does he just talk to the Supreme Leader? gemchanger_ltd To be honest, I really think it will be a separation. I think it’s basically a second Iraq. Thread Guy Really? gemchanger_ltd The main thing is that Iraq was 10 times weaker than Iran is right now. If you were short Iraq back then, it was an insanely weak country. It had already been at war with Iran for 7 years. If you think deeper, the United States came well after the Iran–Iraq War. Iraq was already weak. But right now, Iran is insanely powerful. They have 80 million or 90 million people. They are a superpower. If Trump starts not just a military operation that occurs for a few days, but a full-scale war, I think you should pack some boots and know how to shoot an AK. It’s inevitable. Thread Guy You think I’m going to get drafted? gemchanger_ltd It will be an insane war. No, I think, yeah, because Iran is a superpower. Thread Guy You said it would be a second Ukraine. How many people— gemchanger_ltd Not you. I don’t really know how the draft works in the United States. Thread Guy Dude, you told me it would be a second Ukraine. How many people— gemchanger_ltd You really think that if Trump starts the operation, it will occur in a few days? Thread Guy Dude. gemchanger_ltd You have a country with all its infrastructure underground. They have prepared for this war for decades. You really think it will happen in a few days? It’s impossible. Thread Guy Why don’t you have any positions open? gemchanger_ltd I don’t really want to talk about that. I have a lot of conviction, but I haven’t settled down. I want to open my position when everything happens, because I’m not sure. I’m not the Messiah. Thread Guy Yeah, yeah. My bad. I was just—you got me a little scared, so I’m like, “Fuck.” How do you trade this? Not you literally, but how do people with stocks or crypto trade it? What do you do? Do you just wait? It feels like the stock market is finally starting to react, like, “Oh, this is real. We’re not getting out of this right now,” for the first couple of days. gemchanger_ltd The basic information is that we’re in crypto right now, so let’s talk about crypto. Crypto meets geopolitics, right? I promise you, almost nobody gets the full picture. We already talked about Iran. They can’t export oil normally. They can’t use SWIFT. They can’t touch dollars. So they have massive resources sitting there. Even with the war started, Iran has insane reserves. But what they figured out is that they use stranded oil and gas to generate electricity dirt cheap—like a few cents per kilowatt-hour, some of the cheapest in the world. That electricity powers industrial-scale Bitcoin mining. Have you heard of it? Thread Guy No. gemchanger_ltd The miners sell their BTC, their Bitcoin, to the central bank. The central bank uses it to buy imports. They turn hydrocarbons—oil overall—directly into cryptocurrency. Basically, they’re exploiting the difference between countries. For Iran, it costs something like $1,000 to produce 1 Bitcoin, while in the United States, I think it costs $60,000 or $70,000, if I’m not mistaken. The economics are almost comical in Iran. Their cost to mine 1 Bitcoin is something like $1,000. They can mine Bitcoin at a rate of $1,000 per Bitcoin and nuke the market. Thread Guy It’s like 70 times. Where can I read about this? gemchanger_ltd I guess you could just look up the cost of mining Bitcoin in different countries, and you’ll see it. Thread Guy Okay. gemchanger_ltd Maps that I like show that, for Russia, generating Bitcoin costs around $10K. For the USA, it’s mostly one-to-one. China is also cheap. Iran is also cheap. The oil empires are also cheap. Thread Guy So basically, Iran can instantly nuke all the crypto stocks. gemchanger_ltd Bitcoin was mostly mined because they’re cheap. Yeah, I heard Mando talk about this, actually. They mine it very cheaply. You can freeze accounts and cut SWIFT, but you can’t freeze jewels. I don’t figure out how to turn energy into money. No government can stop it. Thread Guy Damn. And if you research more— gemchanger_ltd Iran controls something like 5% of the global Bitcoin hash rate. Thread Guy I didn’t know that. I thought it was closer to 10% at one point. gemchanger_ltd They’re fifth in the world. Thread Guy That’s true, actually. It’s crazy. And their military controls over half of the crypto flows. Really? gemchanger_ltd About 10 million Iranians hold crypto, and the IRGC holds around half of the crypto flows. Mostly, when the U.S. fights with Iran at a cost of $50K per Bitcoin, Iran is fighting for $1K per Bitcoin. Thread Guy Damn. Okay, before you go, give me an optimistic scenario for this ending soon and smoothly, without market destruction. gemchanger_ltd To be honest, I really think that the wealth transfer has already started. You can’t just go back. You can’t reverse the Ukraine-Russia thing. You can’t reverse the Iran-U.S. thing. The world is changing. You just need to prepare for the massive changes. AI will lay off half of the world’s population. We have another scenario of the wealth transfer. You need to hustle and save money in different stocks or different types of money. That’s it. You just need to prepare for the wealth transfer. It’s already started. It can’t go back to the ’90s, when Tupac was making music and LeBron was throwing threes. No, the wealth transfer is already here. You can’t reverse it. Thread Guy That was the optimistic take. gemchanger_ltd Yeah, that was optimistic, because I’m a realist. I don’t want to say these stupid things that will never happen. I could say that every U.S. military soldier will bring flowers to Iran, everything will stop in 24 hours, Trump is the leader of the world, and everyone is happy. Thread Guy I kind of like that one. gemchanger_ltd Yeah, that sounds good, but unfortunately— Thread Guy gemchanger_ltd, it’s always a pleasure, man. Is there anything else you want to say? gemchanger_ltd Not really. Thanks for inviting me. You actually gave us—I got to learn how this Russia oil refinery stuff works. I’ve been kind of ignoring it, but that was actually really good information. Thank you, bro. Thread Guy I appreciate you coming on. gemchanger_ltd Yeah, thanks. Thread Guy All right, brother. Have a good one. Peace.