Tim Opler

Grace Colon × Tim Opler × Graig Suvannavejh × Eric Schmidt

The Trump–Lilly–Novo agreement’s $4,000 annual Mounjaro or Ozempic price for Medicare/Medicaid may establish a “large markets, medium prices” benchmark, supporting Tim Opler’s XBI 150-plus thesis.Against a $90B pharma revenue hole and subdued deal pace, RAPT’s $35M China-licensed asset becoming a $2.2B GSK takeout illustrates pivot economics, while FDA instability, MFN reopening, China, and IPO quality remain key risks.

Eric Schmidt × Brad Loncar × Tim Opler × Tess Cameron

Biotech M&A has reached 18 takeouts worth over $40B in 2025, as patent cliffs drive pharma’s inorganic expansion and Capstan returns to early science.Median bidders remain 1, keeping Blueprint and Verona premiums modest, while Capstan’s $2.1B in vivo CAR-T deal may be either a wider XBI signal or a one-off; MFN rumors and upcoming data remain key watchpoints.

Chris Garabedian × Josh Schimmer × Nina Kjellson × Mike Yee × Tim Opler

Summit’s PD-1×VEGF bispecific missed overall survival at p=0.0575, sending shares down 25% despite a PFS hit and 20% lower mortality risk in Western patients.Tim Opler sees VEGF×PD-1 becoming oncology’s backbone, while Pfizer’s 3SBio license and Seagen acquisition give it control for ADC combinations.Macro uncertainty favors discounted commercial-stage M&A, and Gilead’s June 19 lenacapavir PDUFA will test FDA functionality.

Daphne Zohar × Josh Schimmer × Tim Opler × John Maraganore × Paul Matteis

After April 7, XBI rose about 15% and BBC 30%, but remained down 12% and 24% year to date, offering no proof generalists returned.Makary’s FDA agenda could expand rare-disease optionality through smaller decisive datasets and conditional approvals, but staffing disruption and scientific independence remain execution risks.Cobenfy’s failed adjunctive study cut Citi’s peak-sales view to $2.8 billion, while real-world combination use and Alzheimer’s psychosis preserve upside scenarios.