MARKET UPDATE: Crypto Is Used To Buy Oil?! FED Meeting, And Economy Ripping
A sovereign-authorized USDT oil purchase, despite a failed $230M Venezuelan deal, signals stablecoins entering commodity settlement while the underlying failure reflected diligence, not crypto.AI-driven copper scarcity and Meta’s frontier push sharpen the competitive map, but model prices at 1–10% of frontier offerings and a roughly two-year superintelligence timeline leave unresolved disruption risk.
市场概述2026年9月8日
非农新增16.2万虽上修前值，但世界杯、开学季等季节性主导，通胀更像受关税和石油推动，而非经济过热。尚浩认为加息本身未必引发风险资产崩跌，真正需监测的是6m10y swap vol及长端失控带来的流动性冲击；AI效率提升、multiple重构和日本3%—3.5%利率风险则是中期变量。
市场概述2026年9月1日
Jin认为当前市场被2000年泡沫叙事牵引，但真正的AI产业革命尚未被广泛定价。他判断九月加息可能性不大，因连续两次负非农后加息自1982年以来未发生，而供应端通胀与K型经济令加息更伤实体、难压长端。AI的关键瓶颈可能是电力与审批：美国仅11-14GW项目既有路条又能通电，GE发电机排产至2031年，算力或流向有电地区，竞争格局仍待观察。
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Chamath PalihapitiyaJason CalacanisDavid SacksDavid Friedberg
Nvidia’s $96.2B revenue and $60B net profit came with 70% growth guidance versus the Street’s 45%, despite supply constraints.Salesforce’s 20%+ rally on $5.90 adjusted EPS and a $46B guide suggests agents may reinforce horizontal systems of record, while vertical SaaS remains contested.Debt also bears watching: $10T must be refinanced within 12 months at a 5.2% 30-year rate.
市场概述2026年8月4日
Momentum抛售或已接近阶段性底部，但prime book仍有95%仓位，杠杆ETF仍剩三千亿美元，去杠杆风险未消。周四反弹主要由空头平仓推动，Citadel接走最后160亿美元仓位，微软和亚马逊业绩仅属边际因素。利率定价可能过度反映供给冲击，短端或随数据回落、长端受国债供应支撑；AI最终仍取决于融资与终端付费。
Has Memory Bottomed?
Only 2.2% of US households pay for AI subscriptions, leaving a large adoption runway that could flow to Micron, MSFT, Meta and Google.A 40% memory drawdown has not ended Avi’s thesis, but Korean margin calls show bubble-like leverage, making forced selling and earnings misses the risks to monitor.
市场概述2026年6月23日
Jin逆共识认为，放弃Fed dot与前瞻指引后，五年至十年期利率将长期上行、曲线变陡，美元储备地位仍由债务市场深度与美国法律体系支撑。真正的压力在r>g与不断扩张的发债，七月云厂二季报将检验CapEx与ROI，谷歌风险最大，而半导体缺货和业绩强劲并非核心风险。
Vol.219 宏观漫谈106｜对外投资新规、美元潮汐周期与AI资本狂欢（6.3录制）
国务院新规把个人、企业及相关实体的资金来源、出境方式和境外资产纳入可追溯框架，恒大信托、ODI、Manus数据交易与VIE审批成为同一跨境链条的切口。SpaceX拟募750亿美元、Google增发800亿美元，AI资本开支最终取决于每个token能否不亏损；若美国AI资产回调，汇金与风格漂移基金的反向流动值得监测。
Vol.218 宏观漫谈105｜从AI资本市场热潮到挑战石油美元体系，历史几乎每次都一样（5.24录制）
两轮risk off后，资金重新涌入中美最拥挤的AI与机器人交易，英伟达市值升至5.5万亿美元。美国增长预期约一半建立在大型公司AI Capex持续增加之上，但低成本旧产能、企业FOMO与囤货放大了一季度表现。亚马逊可能已进入Capex超过自由现金流阶段，微软等或于明年一至二季度跟随，而token收入尚未证明商业闭环。
Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones on AI Risk, Bubbles and Buffett
Patrick O'ShaughnessyPaul Tudor Jones
Paul Tudor Jones sees dollar-yen as an undervalued trade finally gaining a catalyst from Japan’s new leadership and its largely unhedged $4.5 trillion international investment position.He also flags a sovereign debt bubble and an IPO supply reversal as buybacks weaken under hyperscaler capex; the yen catalyst and 6–18-month unlock schedule remain key monitors.