Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

XBI’s rise into the mid-150s is backed by fundamentals, though an AI reversal could create cross-sector downside risk.Josh Schimmer’s regression found an R² of just 0.2 between XBI performance and deal value; AbbVie’s $10.9B Apogee purchase instead highlights replicability and order of entry.FDA normalization and continued China-originated financings are catalysts, while restrictions that compress biotech returns remain a risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Hyperscalers’ $600–700B data-center spending has largely been priced in, and cracks are shifting attention from AI demand to what AI changes across the real economy.Avi favors short Accenture and long XBI/ARKG while warning that volatile memory proxies are not the same as buying suppliers’ products; Micron earnings and biotech’s 50% drawdown test remain key risks.

Chris Garabedian × Brian Skorney × Graig Suvannavejh × Jason Kelly

Biotech capital markets are recovering: Cardigan is the 11th 2026 IPO filing, while Endpoints sentiment reached 96 and finance/investment stakeholders reached 120.Ginkgo’s cell-engineering thesis, Lilly’s up-to-$3.8B vaccine buying, Apogee’s up-to-$1.3B financing, and ASCO’s RESOLUTE 302 readout leave regulation and tolerability to monitor.

Josh Schimmer × Paul Matteis × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Allison DeAngelis

Record biotech secondaries are following better-than-expected data, while Angelini’s $4.1B Catalyst deal and UCB’s $2B-upfront Candid acquisition signal renewed dealmaking.Capital favors development stories over commercial biotech, while Agios’s thalassemia launch may leave 2026 consensus threefold too low and FDA turmoil keeps regulatory credibility in focus.

Graig Suvannavejh × Josh Schimmer × Yaron Werber × Sam Fazeli × Oliver Barnes

XBI has rebounded 84% from its Liberation Day low to a fresh 52-week high, with financing and IPO activity pointing to improving risk appetite.Merck’s $6.7B Terns deal shows updated data can erase bidding leverage, while Gilead’s $3.15B Tubulis acquisition backs a differentiated ADC platform; Replimune’s second CRL leaves the FDA’s bar unclear, and obesity pricing competition remains a catalyst.

Grace Colón × Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Brian Skorney

Novo’s CagriSema delivered 12.6% placebo-adjusted weight loss in REDEFINE 2, broadly in line with Zepbound, but the stock fell roughly 8–10%.Policy risks include MFN pricing, tariffs and vaccine trust, while PBM reform, IRA fixes and the tax bill offer upside; a report expected the week of April 7 could be a catalyst.

Mike Yee × Eric Schmidt × Matt Gline × Yaron Werber

Biotech posted its strongest IPO quarter in four years, with $2B of Q1 IPOs and a $2.5B run rate.Roivant’s Moderna settlement could reach $2.25B, with $950M cash in July and up to $1.3B tied to the §1498 appeal.Paying the contingent amount could leave roughly “two and change” years of cash, while GLP-1 orals broaden a $100B market and threaten consumer categories.

Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh × Luba Greenwood

Graig Suvannavejh’s 15-year Sentometer shifted from record small-cap enthusiasm to “winter is coming,” pointing to probably another three months before biotech sentiment bottoms.Profitability is approaching across SMID biotech, but its value depends on reinvestment-driven growth, not modest earnings.SpringWorks’ expected Merck KGaA catalyst and Moderna’s cancer-vaccine timeline lead the watchlist, while FDA and NIH changes remain unresolved risks.

Josh Schimmer × Sam Fazeli × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × John Crowley

BIO CEO John Crowley says rising US trial costs and regulatory uncertainty make capital flowing to China “perfectly rational.”His FDA prescription—stability, consistency, transparency, and modernization—puts “the next 6 months” in focus.MFN codification could be “devastating” and “unmanageable” before Section 232 action due by the last week of March, while ReGenix’s PLAG1 integration tests AAV safety.

Grace Colon × Tim Opler × Graig Suvannavejh × Eric Schmidt

The Trump–Lilly–Novo agreement’s $4,000 annual Mounjaro or Ozempic price for Medicare/Medicaid may establish a “large markets, medium prices” benchmark, supporting Tim Opler’s XBI 150-plus thesis.Against a $90B pharma revenue hole and subdued deal pace, RAPT’s $35M China-licensed asset becoming a $2.2B GSK takeout illustrates pivot economics, while FDA instability, MFN reopening, China, and IPO quality remain key risks.