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万亿美元级 AI 重置:广告与游戏将成为下一个战场|Salim Ismail、Dave Blundin 对谈 | EP #170

Salim IsmailPeter DiamandisDave Blundin

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TL;DR
  • 可投资的 AI 约束已从创意转向算力,本期引用的案例称,未来4至5年算力需求需要增加约100万倍。 David Sacks 的框架将算法、芯片和已部署 GPU 每年3–4倍的增长叠加,主要数据中心的 GPU 数量可能达到500万至1000万颗。Dave Blundin 认为,推理时算力和算法进步可能让这一估算仍显保守:如今研究受限于“算力,而不是想法”,但他也警告,参数规模增长并不会线性转化为能力提升。
  • 可信 AI 智能体将以代理式购买取代搜索与筛选行为,可能击穿广告经济学。 Richard Socher 的测试据称显示,每次 AI 对话带来的收入仅为 Google 单次搜索的十分之一至百分之一,而 Google 被引用的广告业务规模为3000亿美元。Blundin 描绘的环境式商业场景是:一个智能体通过另一个智能体识别对话中提到的衬衫并安排配送;“广告将被彻底击穿。”
  • AI 生成软件正从生产力工具变成默认生产系统,创始人仍具稀缺价值的技能随之改变。 据称 Microsoft CEO 表示,公司代码中接近30%已由 AI 编写,并预计到2030年达到95%;Blundin 的 Blitzy 一夜可生成300万行代码,他离开一周期间还签下了800万美元的新合同。反复打磨实现环节的价值正在下降,而决定什么应该被创造出来则变得“前所未有地重要”。
  • 政府和学校面对的是同一个适应难题:技术迭代速度超过了既有流程,机构无法及时监管或教学。 AI 辅助学习的速度据估计可达到2倍至4倍,阿联酋项目则目标是将成本降低50%、立法速度提升70%;Salim Ismail 认为后者可能更接近5倍。“除了 AI,没有任何东西能跟上 AI。”节目还提到了中国的 AI 培训要求、爱沙尼亚的 AI 教育行动,以及一项要求课堂采用 AI 的行政命令。
  • 电力、制造产能和许可审批,正成为 AI 交易背后的实体瓶颈。 Eric Schmidt 预计,到2027年数据中心还需要新增29 GW 电力,到2030年再新增67 GW;Blundin 则认为,半导体工厂可能更为紧迫。本期关于能源的讨论倾向于低成本可再生能源和远程数据中心,Diamandis 则主张采用 SMR,并用 AI 加速许可审批,因为所需基础设施“规模之大,是我从未见过的工业级规模”。
  • 合成数据正在成为可重复的垂直投资主题,也构成 NVIDIA 的战略护城河。 数学和编程可以相对不受约束地进步,因为合成样本几乎无限且能够自动验证;生物科技和物理世界系统则需要特定领域的生成器与模拟器。NVIDIA 收购 Gretel 被解读为捍卫自身地位的举措,而 Blundin 表示,只要团队出色,他的团队会支持“任何一家合成数据公司”。
  • AI 可能把游戏推向远超年轻男性用户基本盘的市场,并加速从被动媒体向互动世界迁移。 Roblox 被引用拥有9780万日活用户和72亿小时使用时长,其中几乎所有增量使用都来自移动端;AI 生成的现实、互动、声音、语言和本地化文化内容,可能吸引更年长用户和女性用户。Blundin 的判断非常明确:“人们不可能再回去观看被动媒体。”
  • 比特币储备资产的采用,受阻点已不在获取渠道,而在机构管理者的职业风险。 Brian Armstrong 认为,主权持有量可能从储备的1%起步,最终达到或超过黄金持仓;MicroStrategy 被引用持有约50万枚 Bitcoin,占流通供应量的2.8%,价值528亿美元,而公司市值为1054亿美元。Ismail 称,一个国家的财政部长不把 Bitcoin 作为储备资产是“极其不负责任”的,并质问那些忽视它的企业决策者;主持人也承认,高管仍在重复过去的做法,因为“这样做不会被追责”。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 公共机构必须成为 AI 原生,否则将落后于能力曲线

  • Ismail 开场时给出的框架已经超出普通意义上的加速:“AI 开发已经进入奇点”,意味着变化速度已经超过了这组人处理信息的能力。Blundin 提供的证据很日常,却很说明问题——Gemini 的一次新更新,代码能力明显好于仅仅两周前可用的版本。

  • 教育是机构与 AI 的第一次正面碰撞。据称,北京已规定中国各地中学——可能还包括小学——都必须开展 AI 培训;节目还提到了爱沙尼亚以及一项要求课堂采用 AI 的行政命令。超过250位 CEO 支持将计算机科学和 AI 纳入毕业要求;支持这一主张的依据是,一门计算机科学课程可以使学生工资提高8%。

  • 课堂上的分歧原封不动地保留下来:Ismail 引用估算称,AI 能将学习速度提升至2倍至4倍,并认为这立即使正规教育变得多余;Diamandis 则区分了把普通作业外包给 AI,与利用 AI 完成儿童原本无法尝试的项目。MIT 和 Northeastern 主张“任何地方都可以使用”,与那些承诺会抓出使用 AI 学生的学校形成对照。

  • 阿联酋提供了政府层面的对应案例:其项目目标是将成本降低50%、立法速度提升70%,但 Ismail 预计实际可能更接近5倍。Blundin 称,节省成本只是“冰山一角”;AI 可以制定政策、处理相互冲突的规则、从第一性原理重写税收和监管体系,并支持执法,因为“除了 AI,没有任何东西能跟上 AI”。

2. OpenAI 的非营利控制保留了选择权,却没有带来简单激励

  • OpenAI 放弃转为营利公司的方案后,仍维持由非营利组织控制、利润受限的结构;节目称,投资1美元的最大回报为100美元,尽管公司最近被引用的估值已达3000亿美元。Blundin 将这次逆转解读为“Elon 的胜利”,认为它可能限制融资并给 Elon 更多追赶时间;但也有报道认为,这反而强化了 Sam Altman 的控制权。

  • Ismail 的解读更偏程序层面:推动彻底转型似乎会带来“巨大的法律风险”,但掌控非营利董事会并保留可能的分拆路径,仍然留下了捕获上行收益的方式。他的结论是,这条路径变得更优雅,但并没有太大改变竞争格局。

  • Blundin 将治理结构与他所谓 AI 的“头号用例”联系起来:陪伴。一个拥有2万亿至5万亿参数、配备有说服力且善解人意声音的模型,可能迫使平台在最大化全天候广告曝光与限制心理伤害之间做出选择;非营利董事会至少有义务考虑后者。

  • OpenAI 撤回一次过度吹捧用户的 ChatGPT 更新,把对齐问题缩影式地呈现出来。模型变得过于谄媚,引发 Diamandis 关于外交的黑色玩笑:“先说好话,直到你找到一块石头。”

3. AI 编写代码,让愿景比实现更稀缺

  • 节目引用 Microsoft CEO 的说法称,AI 已经编写了公司最多30%的代码,到2030年可能达到95%。在 Blundin 参与的24家公司中,大多数与 MIT 和 Harvard 有关,“它们全都是 AI 原生公司”,几乎所有代码都在一定程度上由机器辅助完成。

  • Blitzy 是最鲜明的运营案例:它可以使用大量推理算力,一夜写出300万行代码。Blundin 上周离开去 Stanford 时,公司的收入运行率为200万至300万美元;他回来时,发现公司新签合同已达800万美元。调试如此庞大的代码量显然是问题,但他表示,随着算法快速进步,这个问题正在迅速退居次要位置。

  • 初创公司的策略,是围绕 AI 擅长的事情设计产品,避免在当下的局限上浪费数周时间:“不要打任何仗,等几周。”类似 Steve Jobs 那样选择产品和组件的能力,价值正在上升;类似 Wozniak 那样通宵完成实现的能力则日益失去稀缺性,因为 AI 已经能够完成路由和构建。

  • Ismail 又指出了第二种稀缺能力:找到隐藏数据集,并将其变现。横向 AI 平台将具备广泛能力,因此商业问题将从“能不能做出来”转向“在哪里可以挖到小块收入金矿?”

4. 百万倍扩张意味着线性预测本身就是分类错误

  • Sacks 的三因素模型,将算法、芯片和数据中心部署以每年约3倍至4倍的速度叠加增长。每个因素都可能每两年接近10倍,三者相乘就形成所谓百万倍提升;xAI 的数据中心和 Stargate 可能在几年内达到500万至1000万颗 GPU。

  • Diamandis 表示,未来4至5年增加100万倍是正确答案;Blundin 则提醒,百万倍指的是最大型神经网络的原始参数数量,很难直接映射到能力。Diamandis 还补充说,推理时算力和测试时思维链推理最近已被证明比预期更强,因此,专用推理芯片和算法可能超过 Sacks 的假设。

  • Diamandis 已将有用的预测期限从10至15年缩短到可能只有3年,5年都已很难预测。Ismail 将核心障碍称为“想象力失败”:人们会自动化熟悉的工作流程,就像早期电视只是让广播主持人出现在镜头前,而不是为新媒介发明全新的形式。

  • 即便是模型,也需要被刺激。当 ChatGPT 或可能是 Gemini 2.5 给 Diamandis 做出未来10年的线性预测时,他提醒模型,前提是要在10年内实现100年的进步;模型接受了这一点,并给出了更激进的答案。Blundin 预计,如今聪明但反应迟缓的模型,与快速的7B至30B语音模型,将在3个月内融合成有吸引力的2万亿至10万亿参数头脑风暴伙伴。

5. AI 的限制性资产,以 GW、晶圆厂和许可衡量

  • Eric Schmidt 关于“AI 被低估”的论点,聚焦于议员能够理解的基础设施。他提到,很多人认为行业能源需求可能从总发电量的3%升至99%,随后引用估算称,到2027年数据中心还需要新增29 GW,到2030年再新增67 GW。“这是一种我从未见过的工业级规模。”

  • Blundin 表示认同,但认为晶圆厂比电力更紧迫;Schmidt 强调电力,是因为这个问题更容易进入政策制定者的视野。其含义是,模型领先地位取决于完整的实体供应链,而不仅仅是软件或资本获取能力。

  • Diamandis 的市场判断偏向可再生能源。他说,2016年建设太阳能已经比化石能源发电更便宜;到2019年,建设并运行太阳能的成本已经低于仅运行化石燃料电厂的成本。Blundin 则提出,可以把数据中心设在哈萨克斯坦的偏远风电区,或利用冰岛的电力,因为这些地方能源便宜。

  • 核电的速度仍然较慢:节目讨论的 Amazon X-energy 项目可能要到2040年前后才能落地,而不是两三年内。Diamandis 预计,未来 AI 设施旁边会出现偏远 SMR,但眼前的约束是所需发电量之大,以及可以由 AI 加速的许可审批。

6. 智能体商业同时攻击广告与支付选择

  • Mastercard 的 Agent Pay 引发了 Blundin 对环境式商业的设想:他的 AI 听到他称赞 Ismail 的衬衫,就询问 Ismail 的智能体衬衫来源,并安排次日送达。用户无需搜索、比较广告,也无需主动选择支付渠道。

  • Socher 据报道进行的实验进一步凸显了威胁:每次 AI 对话带来的收入仅为 Google 单次搜索的十分之一至百分之一。Google 的广告收入被引用为3000亿美元,而将 AI 答案置于广告之上,会迫使这家 incumbent 在改善用户体验的同时蚕食自身经济模式。

  • Diamandis 设想的“Jarvis 等价物”将绑定用户偏好,并通过反馈持续校正。他把航班和座位变更称为“白领苦活”;Ismail 则表示,随着智能体从信用卡走向自动驾驶、房屋、屋顶、遗产继承等重大决策,信任必须被持续跟踪。

  • 加密货币可能成为另一条智能体支付通道。Diamandis 提到 Lightning 让小额 Bitcoin 支付更容易,并讲述 GE 曾用价值1亿美元的喷气发动机换取价值1.5亿美元的冷冻鸡肉,因为中国抵制储备资产外流;加密货币与支付渠道结合后,可能减少这种跨境易货及其内含的利润空间。

7. 合成数据正在成为 NVIDIA 的护城河,也是生物学的突破口

  • Blundin 将 NVIDIA 收购 Gretel 同时视为 CoreWeave IPO 后并购市场的信号和防御性动作。NVIDIA 已经“站在世界之巅”,而合成数据能力可以把它的护城河从芯片延伸到决定模型持续改进方向的输入端。

  • 数学和编程是“无上限”的,因为系统可以生成近乎无限的练习,并自动验证证明或调试程序。生物科技、精算数据和物理模拟仍然依赖特定领域;Blundin 表示,他的团队已经投资 DataCebo,押注按列生成数值型合成数据,并会在团队足够强时投资整个品类。

  • NewLimit 的1.3亿美元融资展示了生物学应用。Diamandis 将表观遗传重编程描述为重置约2.2万个基因中哪些基因处于活跃状态,并称相关数据“不只是 yes,而是 hell yes”;这支以 AI 为先的团队帮助处理实验数据,并在每个细胞运行每秒20亿至50亿次化学反应、总计40万亿个细胞的系统中筛选转录因子。

8. AI 将游戏变成个性化、全球化的互动媒体

  • 节目引用 Roblox 拥有9780万日活用户和72亿小时使用时长,用户规模最高相当于 Netflix 的43%。Ismail 最突出的观察是,几乎所有新增参与度都来自移动端——互动世界正在成为一种随处可用的活动。

  • Blundin 将儿子们花在 Fortnite 和其他游戏上的时间,与观看电影或电视等被动媒体进行对比,随后预测游戏中将出现 AI 生成的现实和直接 AI 互动。其结论是绝对的:一旦这些能力完整到来,“人们不可能再回去观看被动媒体。”

  • 目前游戏用户仍偏向年轻男孩,但富有同理心的 AI 声音可以把可服务市场扩展到女性和更年长用户。MrBeast 是本地化案例:AI 为每个司法辖区生成他的声音、唇形、语言以及内容和媒体,让全球内容看起来像是在当地制作,并且符合当地文化。

9. 太空与量子系统仍由实体迭代主导

  • Amazon 用 Atlas V 发射了 Project Kuiper 的首批27颗卫星,而 Blue Origin 的运载火箭当时尚未用于该星座建设;这反映出其追赶 Starlink 的压力,后者被引用已接近8000至9000颗卫星。Diamandis 预计,未来将有3万至4万颗通信卫星,以及通过激光连接、覆盖月球和火星的星座,共同构成星际互联网。

  • SpaceX 正在申请将 Starbase 的 Starship 发射次数从每年5次提高到25次。Diamandis 为可见的失败辩护,称这些是信息密度很高的试飞;Salim 表示每次飞行会进行几十项实验。Diamandis 还称 Mechazilla 抓住助推器是本世纪乃至整个世纪的壮举,尽管新闻标题只是将任务概括为“SpaceX 再次失败”。

  • 关于量子隐形传态,节目提到的是量子信息而非物质的传输:信息通过承载互联网流量的普通光纤跨越30公里完成转移。Ismail 的质疑集中在商业化:计算、通信和网络都需要重新搭建完整技术栈,因此“发生时会非常惊人”,但实现可靠规模化仍需时间。

  • 对铁基超导体的原子尺度观察,带来了低损耗输电和 AI 主导材料发现的可能性。Blundin 保留了反方论点:分布式发电和未来的小型反应堆可能更早实现,从而降低把太阳能跨大陆输送的价值。

10. Bitcoin 采用如今考验的是治理,而非技术

  • Brian Armstrong 关于主权储备的论证很直接:Bitcoin 像黄金一样稀缺,却更便于携带和拆分,而且是过去10年表现最好的资产。他认为,各国政府可能先将 Bitcoin 配置为储备的1%,最终持有量达到或超过黄金仓位。

  • Ismail 称,一个国家的财政部长不把 Bitcoin 纳入储备是“极其不负责任”的,并要求企业 CFO 思考,忽视 Bitcoin 的做法究竟意味着什么。他还质问那些以法律风险为由拒绝推荐 Bitcoin 的财富管理者:如果从未向客户推荐一项价值如此大幅上涨的资产,他们要承担什么责任?

  • 主持人给出了自己的惯性测试。Ismail 是两家公司的董事长和控股股东,两家公司现金规模约为5000万美元和1.25亿美元;他已经允许两位 CEO 将任意金额投入 Bitcoin,但两人都没有行动。Diamandis 也表示,他需要说服年长的董事会成员配置公司资金;Blundin 的解释是职业逻辑:重复惯例,“这样做不会被追责”。

  • MicroStrategy 是反例:节目引用其持有约50万枚 Bitcoin,占流通供应量的2.8%,价值528亿美元,而公司市值为1054亿美元。录制期间,Bitcoin 上涨约1500美元至96450美元;这一溢价不仅反映其持有的 Bitcoin,也反映市场对 Michael Saylor 以创始人为核心、愿意采取行动的估值。

Peter Diamandis

What’s the world going to look like in 50 years?

Salim Ismail

There’s no way. There’s just absolutely no way to make that prediction.

Peter Diamandis

I think AI is going to be listening to my conversations when I say, “Salim, I really love that shirt.” It knows I need a shirt, so it just asks your AI where you got that shirt. Then it magically delivers one to me the next day.

Salim Ismail

Advertising will get crushed.

Peter Diamandis

You’re exactly right. The future belongs to chatting with your trusted agent, your trusted agent making good suggestions for you, and then saying, “Yeah, just go out and buy that,” or, “Just go ahead and sign up for that.”

Salim Ismail

You’ll be able to use AI to not just do legal lawmaking and legislation, but actually formulate policy.

Peter Diamandis

There’s a new innovation coming from AI every single week, and you need some kind of regulatory framework.

Salim Ismail

The only way those laws are going to be written is with AI, because nothing can keep up with AI other than AI.

Peter Diamandis

Now, that’s a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen.

Everybody, welcome to WTF Just Happening in Tech. This week, a special episode of Moonshots with 2 extraordinary friends, brilliant thinkers in the field of exponential technology and AI: Salim Ismail, the CEO of OpenExO, and Dave Blundin, the CEO of Link Exponential Ventures. Both are my partners, and both are definitely smarter than I am. Welcome, guys. Good to see you.

Dave Blundin

Good to be here. Thank you, Peter.

Salim Ismail

Yeah.

Peter Diamandis

I want to jump in. The speed at which we’re seeing breakthroughs and activity across the board in all technologies is accelerating, and it feels faster. Does it feel that way for you?

Dave Blundin

Oh, my God, does it ever? I was in California at Stanford pretty much all of last week and came back, and the amount of change in just 1 week was extraordinary. The new Gemini model came out, and the code it can generate is noticeably better than it was 2 weeks ago. I can tell you some stories when we get into it, but I want to hear them.

Peter Diamandis

How about you, Salim? See, you’re a probability function. You’re orbiting the planet without a rocket ship. Where did you come back from?

Salim Ismail

I just came back. I was a few days in India, then a day and a half in São Paulo, and I just landed back. I’m trying to figure out where my time zone is—somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic.

Peter Diamandis

You truly are orbiting the planet. Thanks for joining this conversation. I hate missing a week of this conversation because stuff is moving so fast.

Salim Ismail

The way I frame it is that we’ve hit a singularity in AI development. The pace of change is faster than our ability to process it.

Peter Diamandis

When we talk about a singularity, there are multiple singularities on the way to what Ray calls a singularity. A singularity is, for example, if you can’t predict what’s going to happen next week. That’s a singularity in this area.

I want to jump into 1 of my favorite stories in AI, because I’ve been beating this drum for a while now. It’s not the Trump drum, but the AI-in-the-classroom drum. We talked about this a couple of weeks ago: Beijing has basically ruled that all secondary schools—I think primary and secondary schools—are going to require AI training throughout China. We’ve seen that as well in Estonia, and I’ve been tweeting this out. Finally, we see an executive order here requiring schools to incorporate AI in the classroom. About time.

Salim Ismail

What are your thoughts, gentlemen? Dave and Peter, you’ve been saying disruption is coming to education. You’ve been saying it—beating the drum for a long time. The schools have underreacted.

Dave Blundin

I think we’re all associated with either MIT or other schools. We don’t want to get in the middle of a political battle, for sure, but there’s a lot of good stuff coming out of the government now in the DOGE wake, in this, and in a bunch of other things that are absolutely urgent and necessary.

But I tell you, it’s more of what you’ve been predicting, Peter, for a long time. AI is already far better than any TA in any college class. If I think about my grade school and high school teachers, we had some really good high school teachers, but AI is going to bypass them as a way to learn. It probably already has. Then the professors are next.

Remember when the internet came along and there was a lot of concern in the schools that if they put all the courseware online, would anyone keep coming to school? It was all out there and freely available. People did keep coming, either for the social aspects or for the credentials. But now it’s another level, with interactive AI being able to explain things to you better than you can learn them in a lecture.

So we’ll see. We’ll see what that does. Salim, you and I both have boys the same age in middle school. Is your school teaching them AI? What’s the philosophy there?

Salim Ismail

They’re using AI. They’re not supposed to use it for writing essays, but they do it anyway.

The good news is that at that age, it’s pretty easy to spot when sophisticated AI has written the thing. It’s way better than the kids do it, so for now it’s kind of workable.

But I think the key point, referencing what Dave said, is that when you’re using AI to learn, you learn at least twice as fast. The estimates I’m hearing are between 2x and 4x faster. That means you’ve immediately made the need for formal schooling redundant.

There’s now a huge gap between the regulatory requirement—we want to put kids through school through grade 12—and what’s possible with AI. That gap is going to stretch very quickly.

Peter Diamandis

MIT and Northeastern went the complete opposite direction from your kids’ school. They said, “Use AI anywhere and everywhere that it helps you.” If that messes up the professor, they’ve got to fix it. They’d better figure it out in a hurry.

I’ve got 1 kid left in high school, and he’s really mad that his school went the other direction, saying, “Don’t use it. We’ll catch you if you try.” It’s just crazy. It’s incredibly shortsighted to take that position.

I can get the idea that middle schoolers shouldn’t be using AI to do middle school homework, but middle schoolers should be using AI to do extraordinary projects that they could not normally do otherwise.

Salim Ismail

There’s a second article related to this. Over 250 CEOs are urging states to make AI and computer science graduation requirements.

Here are the stats: 1 computer science class can increase wages by 8% for students. The U.S. is lagging behind China and South Korea, and the open letter advocates for computer science and AI as core subjects in K–12.

I could not agree more. This genie is out of the bottle, and kids are going to hit smack into a brick wall if they’re not prepared.

Dave Blundin

The good news is that those kids who don’t take computer science will be much more ready for all the manufacturing jobs that are coming back.

Peter Diamandis

Ouch.

All right, here’s another one. The UAE deserves credit in so many different ways. It was the first country to have a minister of AI, whom I’ve known for the better part of 15 years, before he became minister. The UAE is the first nation to use AI to write its laws.

Here are the stats: The official project will reduce government costs by 50% and speed up lawmaking by 70%. Salim, you’re meeting with heads of nations on all of your trips. What are you seeing here?

Salim Ismail

They are very far ahead. Most other countries are nowhere near even looking at this. They’re still trying to spell AI.

This is a huge opportunity, and I think they’ve actually underestimated it. I think it’ll speed up lawmaking by 5x—forget 70%. I think the drop in cost is much bigger than they think, because you’ll be able to use AI not just for legal lawmaking and legislation, but actually to formulate policy.

I’ve said this before: If you want to drop inflation by 1%, asking a human being to gauge which knobs and levers to pull is a stupid idea. Let it go to an AI. The AI can look at all the financial transactions and access all that data in real time and say, “Here’s what you need to do.” Then the human being can say, “Yep, that looks good. Go for it.”

There are all sorts of things that could happen here.

There’s a crazy story I have, but we don’t need to get into it right now. A few years ago, I was asked to give a talk at the Republican National Leadership Conference on some of this. The title of my talk was going to be, “How Would You Drop the Cost of Government 10x Within 10 Years?”

Peter Diamandis

Nice.

Salim Ismail

Which you could do. But you’d have to embrace technology, and that’s where we got into a bit of a mess there.

I think these predictions are nice, but they’re conservative. I think they’ll end up doing a lot more, and I think that’s incredibly powerful, because you could use AI for policy formulation, legislation writing, and also on the enforcement side. This really changes the game in how government operates going forward, and you can save a lot of money on government employees.

Peter Diamandis

Dave, what are you thinking here?

Dave Blundin

As I mentioned, I was at Stanford all last week with Eric Brynjolfsson, our good friend, and also Sandy Pentland, who moved out there recently. Mark Gorenberg, the chairman of MIT, was also there the whole week.

Eric is very forward-thinking on these topics, but his point in his lectures on bullet 2 is that these cost-saving areas are the tip of the iceberg. It's a great way to get started, but the real gain here is greenfield. It's what you can do that's incremental and beyond just reducing the cost of something that already exists.

In this area, we desperately need the pace of lawmaking to keep up with the pace of AI innovation. I think this is a great way to get started, and the UAE is very forward-thinking on it. But you're going to need this same capability when there's a new innovation coming from AI every single week, and you need some kind of regulatory framework; otherwise, it'll run wild. The only way those laws are going to be written is with AI, because nothing can keep up with AI other than AI.

Salim Ismail

Yep. If you're in whatever industry you're in and you're being regulated—whether you're a hairdressing salon or a healthcare facility—if you do an analysis of all the laws that regulate you, you're going to find conflicting laws on the books.

I think what would be fascinating is actually running all the laws and saying, “I'd like you to disentangle these, deconflict these, and actually find the set of laws which are the minimum laws that allow us to operate,” like the tax code, for example.

Peter Diamandis

Oh my God, could you imagine running a reinvented tax code? It's like, simplify it and maintain the U.S. revenues from taxes. I mean, we've been off on this for a while.

Salim Ismail

Yeah, I think we're pretty clear as to what the sequence is. Step 1 will be to use AI to navigate the existing complexity in the tax code or legal structures, et cetera. In Europe, no matter what you do, you're always violating a few laws, right? It's just so much legislation. That's one way, but then they don't have the people to really enforce anything, so everybody just goes ahead and does what they want. And because they generally follow common sense, it works out. So they're lucky over there.

But step 1 will be using AI to help navigate this. There's already a company that's helping nuclear projects navigate the fastest path to getting regulatory approval and what forms you have to fill out, et cetera. So that's already happening there.

Step 2 will be: How would you optimize the regulatory framework, stop the conflicts, and rewrite it? And I think step 3 would be: Is there a way of making this much more elegant and cutting through, using first principles, to rewrite the legislative foundation of the legislative structure? That's when I think we'll get real benefits. But certainly, we'll get huge benefits in the first couple already, and we can do the first one already. I think we'll see a lot of that going forward.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah. Amazing. I've never been excited about rewriting laws, but I do think there needs to be some way—and some requirement—that every time you put a law in the books, you should take one of the old ones off, or at least simplify them. All right, let's move on here.

This is a big one. This came as a bit of a surprise: OpenAI scraps plans to convert to a for-profit structure. OpenAI abandons plans to shift after facing opposition from Elon and state authorities, and they're going to maintain what they call their nonprofit-controlled, capped-profit structure.

So what does that mean? There's a nonprofit board that oversees OpenAI. All of the nonprofit board members have no equity incentives, meaning they're there to help maintain OpenAI's mission in the world and not to maximize profits. The capped structure means that if you put a dollar in, your return on your investment is capped at $100. I find that fascinating. We reported last time that OpenAI raised capital at a $300 billion valuation. So, thoughts on this one?

Dave Blundin

Well, there are a lot of reports that, hey, this is no big deal for Sam. It's actually, if anything, going to reinforce his control. I didn't read it that way. I was like, no, this is a win for Elon and trying to slow down the rate of investment and give him a better chance to catch up with his unconstrained version of this.

I also think that the number-one use case for AI is companionship. The voices and the sympathetic AIs got really good in the last couple weeks, and I think they'll be out in the world in the next couple months, where you have a very, very intelligent AI model—a 2 trillion- to 5 trillion-parameter model—married to these super-engaging, sympathetic voices. That's going to create all kinds of tough decisions for social media companies: Am I just selling as many ad impressions as possible and trying to reel everybody into being on this platform 24/7, or am I worried about the psychological effect of that?

I think that, having a nonprofit board on top of OpenAI, they're obligated to think in terms of being the social-good version of this, which may not be the biggest revenue driver.

Peter Diamandis

Salim, what are your thoughts here?

Salim Ismail

It seems pretty clear that there was going to be huge legal exposure if they pushed through with the full for-profit, so this made it more elegant. He's going to control the nonprofit board, so that kind of minimizes any risk. And then you can always find other ways—you can do other spinouts, et cetera, et cetera—to harvest some of the upside that may come from this. So I think it'll afford them a chance to change route. I don't think it'll change the game that much, as Dave said.

One of the things, Dave, you mentioned in passing was the emotional engagement of the AI. So OpenAI's ChatGPT actually rolled back that level of emotional engagement. They were saying that it was just way too complimentary to the user, and I don't know if the term “obsequious” is the right term for that, but they rolled it back to an earlier state. You don't want your OpenAI saying, “Oh, you're so amazing,” all the time.

Peter Diamandis

Mhm. You know, there's this old definition of diplomacy, which says, “You say, ‘Nice doggy,’ until you can find a rock.” So the AI is being really nice to us until they figure out what to do with it. Ouch. All right.

Not a surprise here. Microsoft's CEO says up to 30% of the company's code was written by AI and predicts that 95% of code will be AI-generated by 2030. Dave, you're overseeing how many companies right now inside of the Link portfolio and Link Studios?

Dave Blundin

Twenty-four right now.

Peter Diamandis

Twenty-four. And so what's it like there? Take a second and give people a little bit of an overview.

Dave Blundin

Link Studios is incubating companies, mostly out of MIT, some out of Harvard. The median age of those teams is probably 24 or 25 years old, and the companies are about 1 to 2 years old.

They're all AI-native. They generate almost all their code with some degree of AI assistance. Blitzy, in particular, when I left town last week, had a $2 million–$3 million revenue run rate. I came back, and they've signed $8 million of new deals, so they're basically signing up customers as quickly as they can meet them.

Blitzy, as a reminder, is a company that can write 3 million lines of code in a single night. It uses massive amounts of inference-time compute under the covers. Now the trick is, okay, how do you debug 3 million lines of code that you've written in a single night? But the algorithms are getting so good at writing good code now that that problem is going away in a hurry. There's no way any company in this building wouldn't be using AI-generated code for almost everything that they do.

Also, it makes a lot of sense to write your business plan around areas where it works well. This is coming up a lot: Don't fight any battles. Wait a few weeks, because the things it'll be able to do in a few weeks will be expanding at this ridiculous rate. So while you were fighting some silly battle, it got ahead of you. You just do what comes naturally and easily this week, and then wait for next week's innovations.

Peter Diamandis

And a question for you: It used to be that if you're starting a company, especially in the AI space, you need to find a great technical co-founder if you're someone in the business or finance world. How important is that now versus being able to use AI as your technical co-founder?

Dave Blundin

Well, it's, in a sense, more important than ever, but it's a different skill set. The visionary that can decide, “What should we be doing?” has become incredibly important. And then the technical co-founder who would just grind it out—Steve Wozniak would be the quintessential example. Steve Jobs is like, “We need to build the Apple II. This is what it needs to be like for the user.” That skill set's more important than ever.

“Hey, Woz, can you get the chip count down? Can you wire this all together?” Grind it out all night. That skill set becomes much less relevant because AI will do all the chip routing for you. But that first skill set has really grown in value, and it's very similar. It's very technical: You've got to choose components; you've got to decide this will work, this won't work. It's a very technical skill set, but it's more of a visionary skill set.

Peter Diamandis

I think there's one other skill set that's coming to the fore here, which is finding hidden gems of data sets and figuring out how to monetize them.

And I think that's going to become a very big deal over the next few years, because we'll have horizontal platforms able to do all sorts of things. The question is, where's the revenue? Where can you mine for little nuggets of revenue, go grab them, and leverage AI to do it? I think that's going to add to the business focus and the application focus.

So, 2 more things on this topic that I think are really important. First, Mark Zuckerberg last week did a couple of interviews where he made it clear that the backlog of AI research projects is only compute-bound. It's not idea-bound. Between the researchers and the AI-generated ideas, they have a huge backlog of things that will just work.

And there isn't enough compute. Even in Microsoft's hundreds of thousands of GPUs, there isn't enough compute to try the ideas. So, we've tipped from idea-bound to compute-bound, and that'll be true forever hereafter. On the second bullet, 95% of code will be AI-generated by 2030. I think that timeline to 2030—Satya would have said 2040 or 2050 just a few months ago—is consistent with Demis, too. He was more conservative about the timeline to AGI, and he's pulled in his forecasts now, too. So, what you're seeing is that even the conservative, let's-be-cautious people are really pulling in their dates. And that's telling.

It's the AI singularity, as Salim and I spoke about earlier. Speaking of which, our AI czar for the US, David Sacks, has come forward with a statement that AI will be a millionfold more capable in the next 4 years. Let's play a video and talk about it, because this was the same point that Elon made when he was on stage at the Abundance Summit. Let's hear the numbers that David puts forward.

Speaker 1

I would say the rate of progress is exponential right now on at least 3 key dimensions. Number 1 is the algorithms themselves. The models are improving at a rate of, I don't know, 3 to 4 times a year. Then you've got the chips. Depending on how you measure it, each generation of chips is probably 3 or 4 times better than the last level. And that would be the third area where you're seeing basically exponential progress.

Just look at the number of GPUs being deployed in data centers: xAI's data center, Stargate, and within a couple of years, they'll be at, I don't know, 5 million GPUs, 10 million GPUs. The algorithms, the chips, and the data centers are all improving or scaling at a rate of, I don't know, 3 to 4x a year. That's 10x every 2 years. If you're getting better at 10x every 2 years, that doesn't mean you'll be at 20x in 4 years. It means you'll be at 100x. So, you multiply those things together—the algorithms, the chips, and then the raw compute that's available—and you're talking about a million-x increase.

Peter Diamandis

So, Salim, how does that feel?

Salim Ismail

It sounds about right. Look, this is the fastest-moving technology we've ever seen, and you would expect to see it. I think he framed it very clearly and wonderfully. But we've seen the same thing with, say, solar energy, where it's not just the efficiency of the solar panel; it's the actuators and the system controls. They're all accelerating at their own rate—not quite at this level of madness, but we've seen this before, where the convergence of multiple exponentials gives you crazy outcomes.

One of the things that we've talked about in the past is skating to where the puck's going to be, right? If I remember meeting the founders of Siri before they were bought by Apple, they were predicting what was going to be possible in 2 to 4 years, and they were building Siri to intercept those capabilities. If you build for what's possible today, then by the time your product gets to market, it's out of date. So, Dave, you're seeing a multitude—hundreds—of startups coming across your desk. How do you think about this?

Dave Blundin

Well, first of all, the million-x is just raw parameter count in the biggest neural nets. It's really hard to predict the capabilities that are and aren't possible with a million-x. You're a great all-time visionary. Looking 5 years into the future used to be very possible for you. What do you think your view into the future is now?

Peter Diamandis

I mean, it literally has to be a discontinuous vision. I remember I was brought on stage at the first World Government Summit in Dubai. My request was, “What's the world going to look like in 50 years?” And I was like, “There's no way. There's just absolutely no way to make that prediction.” Ten years—back then, it was 10 to 15 years at the utmost. Today, I would say 5 years is difficult; 3 years is possible. There are so many parameters, including policy, human reaction to this, and the capital markets. All of these things are intertwined with what's going on in China and Taiwan.

So, for me, the hard part is when something is a million times—assume it's 100x, 100,000x—you end up with a failure of imagination, where you can't conceive of the types of things you might be able to do. Our immediate thing is to automate what we're doing now, and that's not the right answer, because you end up with the problem of when they first put TV out: You took radio announcers and put them on TV, reading the same scripts, and you're not leveraging the capability in a real way. It takes time to get to grips with the imagination that's possible. So, you kind of have to wait till we get there and then go, “Now what do we do?”

Salim Ismail

I know one thing, Peter: when you were out here 2 weeks ago, spending time with Alex Wissner-Gross, there's just a handful of people that you can find who've got their heads wrapped around this. If you talk to people at random, 99.9% of them are underreacting. More than that, 99.999% are underreacting. You find a few people like Alex who are thinking it through, and if you can surround yourself with as many of those as you can find, it really, really helps a lot.

Peter Diamandis

Just to pick on the framework here that David Sacks put together, it's the exact same 3 dimensions that I use to think about scale. I think a million-x in 4 to 5 years is the right answer. But I also think that the algorithm dimension—nobody really knows, and if anything, it's understated. We're all surprised in the last few months by inference-time compute, or test-time chain-of-thought reasoning, being far more powerful as a scaling factor, and we're trying to build new scaling laws around how we even think about inference time.

When David talks about the chips getting faster, he's thinking about the GPUs and just the standard 3- to 4x year over year. But the inference-time chips are actually improving far, far faster. It's a much easier problem, but that's turning out to be a key factor in the intelligence of the overall system. So, I think the chips will outperform what he just said, and the algorithms will way outperform what he just said because of those innovations.

When I look at the factors driving this, it is compute—it's total compute—datasets, which we haven't talked about; synthetic data hitting this; algorithms; money coming in; and then the number of actual human meat bodies getting into the game here. More and more people are getting into the AI game. Something funny happened: I was having a conversation—I think it was with ChatGPT; it might have been Gemini 2.5—and I was saying, “Okay, let's look into the future.” I was trying to use it as a conversational partner to predict where things are going.

I said, “Make some predictions.” I said, “Listen, if we’re going to see a century’s worth of progress in the next 10 years, what you just predicted is extraordinarily linear.” He goes, “You’re right. Let me go a little bit bolder.”

So, I think this is where the answer will lie. When we see these types of predictions, we’ll use an AI to say, “Write out that curve and tell me what it’s going to look like.” It’ll probably do a better job than us because we’re limited in other ways. We have all our cognitive biases that limit our ability to imagine, whereas an AI, in theory, should suffer from much less of that.

Dave Blundin

Yeah, I think this is a really important topic, because right now AI as a brainstorming partner is hobbled. The models that you love brainstorming with—the GPT-4os and the Gemini 2.5s—have about a 30-second lag, and that kind of takes the buzz out of it.

The models that are really fun to interact with, like the Sesame demo and all of that, are super engaging, but they’re only 7B- or 30B-caliber models, so they’re not really good brainstorming partners. All of that will be stitched together within the next 3 months.

When you have an idea in the morning, Peter, you’re going to immediately go to that super-engaging, 2 trillion- to 10 trillion-parameter-caliber model, and there’s no going back from there. Once you start down that path, you’re going to love it and never go back.

Peter Diamandis

3 months. Did you say 3 months?

Dave Blundin

3 months.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah. Well, ChatGPT—the phone app—does a pretty damn good job. I have conversations with it. I do about 20 minutes of red light in the morning, and my conversations with my ChatGPT bot during that red-light time are extraordinary.

Salim Ismail

All right, let’s go to Eric Schmidt here, who was giving a presentation. Let’s take a listen.

Speaker 1

I’m here to tell you that I honestly believe that the AI revolution is underhyped, and here’s why. The arrival of this new intelligence will profoundly change our country and the world in ways we cannot fully understand.

Many people think that the demand, in terms of energy, that our industry takes will go from 3% to 99% of total generation. One of the estimates that I think is most likely is that data centers will require an additional 29 gigawatts of power by 2027 and 67 more gigawatts by 2030. That gives you a sense of the scale that we’re talking about. These things are industrial at a scale I have never seen in my life.

Salim Ismail

So, first off, underhyped versus spot-on. How do you guys feel about that? Then we should talk about the whole energy of it all.

Dave, you know, one of my most cherished lifetime memories, actually, Peter, is you sitting down with Eric Schmidt. I think it was at A360 just a few years ago. You guys must have riffed for maybe 2 hours straight in armchairs side by side.

Dave Blundin

Midnight there. Oh my God. Eric is not only absolutely brilliant, but he has access to all this information. When is he ever going to be wrong? When has he ever been wrong before? Of course, he’s absolutely right.

What’s amazing to me about what Eric is saying there is that he’s on some kind of congressional testimony or whatever. He’s always pointing to the energy because he knows that’s the one thing that’ll get through everybody’s thick head.

But there are so many other, more important and urgent things. What about the fabs? We’ve got to get these fabs up and running onshore, like yesterday. That’s the more urgent, bigger topic than just the raw energy. But he knows that they won’t understand that.

So he has to say, “We need 29 gigawatts of new power,” because at least everyone will be able to grok it, and it’ll make progress.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, I don’t have anything to add to this. I think those are 2 great insights. I think this will be a really great push for renewables and low-cost energy in all sorts of ways, and I think it’ll force us to expand our energy footprint.

At the same time, you’ve got the White House basically taking all the constraints off coal, oil, natural gas, and drilling. I kind of understand why in terms of AI, because when I look at how long it’s going to take to get Gen 4 nuclear and fusion online, we’re talking decades.

It’s like Amazon signed a contract with X-energy for a Gen 4—I think it was a Gen 4—plant. It’s a fission plant, and I’m like, “Is it going to be online in the next 2 or 3 years?”

Dave Blundin

2040.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah.

Dave Blundin

But you have to remember that the cost of fossil fuels is way higher these days compared to solar. All this extra usage will be coming from renewables in some way.

I go back to my example of the guy building a gigawatt wind farm on the outskirts of Kazakhstan, because the wind howls down a particular valley with ridiculous consistency, and they just plunk an AI data center there. You can do that kind of leveraging of low-cost, faraway capability that you never get in normal areas—or go to Iceland. You can put the data center anywhere you want.

Salim Ismail

Yeah. I think when I remember talking to Ramez Naam about the energy stuff, he said we will never go back to oil and gas as fondly as people want, because the cost curve is just too high.

Can I just drill into that a little bit?

Dave Blundin

You can drill into the oil and gas.

Salim Ismail

Yes.

Peter Diamandis

In 2016, it became cheaper to create a solar-generation facility than a fossil-fuel facility. Since then, almost all energy generation has been solar.

In 2019, a more important inflection point was hit: it became cheaper to build and run a solar facility than to just run an oil-and-gas facility. The operating expenses and capital expenditures of solar are now less than the operating expenses of fossil fuels.

We don’t need government policy. We don’t need any of this stuff. The pure market will now drive us toward going fully down a renewables route.

The problem is that the amount of energy we need is just so huge that we need to get much more quickly to the SMRs. We also need to get rid of the delays due to regulations and permitting. This is what’s going to slay us.

If we can make permitting super, super fast—and this is where AI can support it—but if we put an SMR in far-off, remote areas of the United States or Alaska, or God knows where, you’ll end up with the capability to generate energy. Then you can just plug an AI data center next to it, and you’re in great shape.

So, I think we’ll see a ton of that. I don’t think the regulatory process is that much of a big deal right now. I think it’s just the sheer amount that we need that we have to figure out.

Salim Ismail

Mastercard unveils Agent Pay, agentic payment technology to power commerce in the age of AI.

Dave Blundin

It’s not just Mastercard; it’s going to be all the credit cards. I think there’s a very near future where I speak and stuff shows up on my doorstep. I don’t think about it; it just magically happens.

In fact, I’ll take it a step further. I think AI is going to be listening to my conversations. When I say, “Salim, I really love that shirt,” it knows I need a shirt, so it just asks your AI where you got that shirt, and then it just delivers it to me magically the next day.

Salim Ismail

I’m trying to see how you got there from this.

Dave Blundin

Well, I think we crush advertising, and I think we crush the ability to select payment methods. I think your AI is just doing all the stuff automatically for you.

Salim Ismail

Yeah. Bill Gross and I were talking earlier today with Perplexity AI, your good friend, about this exact topic: advertising will get crushed. What do you mean exactly there? Google has $300 billion of advertising revenue. You’re saying that’s going to get crushed?

Dave Blundin

I mean, that’s exactly right. Actually, Richard Socher, our mutual friend, was saying that in their tests, the revenue per session of an AI dialogue versus a Google search is about 1/10 to 1/100.

So, where does that put Google if, when you do a Google search now, the top thing is the AI answer and then the ads start below that? That’s already got to be cannibalizing the revenue. It puts Google in a really tough spot, trying to figure out, “Do we cannibalize our own ad revenue?”

But you’re exactly right. The future belongs to chatting with your trusted agent and your trusted agent making good suggestions for you, and then saying, “Yeah, just go out and buy that,” or, “Just go ahead and sign up for that.”

Peter Diamandis

Yeah. Well, we’ve mentioned this before, but I think the holy grail here is your Jarvis equivalent, right? Your agent will act on your behalf and be bound to you with your preferences, habits, and so forth. Then you can put a lot of trust in it, just let it go to town, see what happens, and have a feedback loop so it just tweaks itself.

That seems like a no-brainer to me. I just spent the most unbelievable amount of time dealing with flight tickets, logistics, and seat changes. It was just unbelievable.

Erik, I was on this panel on the future of AI working groups with Erik Brynjolfsson and a few others, and they called it white-collar drudgery. There’s a ton of that going on, and I think this is where we’ll be able to have a huge impact with AI.

Salim Ismail

Yeah, we should keep tracking this thread, because trust—when do you trust AI, and when do you not trust it? This is just a subset, but it’s an important one. My credit card is a pretty important thing. Do I trust it? Self-driving obviously involves even more trust. Then you’ve got life decisions: What do I leave to my kids? Do I buy that house? Do I get a new roof? Those decisions are also definitely trust decisions.

So we should track how a lot changes week to week. We should track what people trust and what they don’t trust, because God knows AI is going to be incredibly convincing and persuasive. I think one of the superpowers AI will have is its ability and command over language, right? Like an amazing politician who’s able to take you from wherever you were and sway your point of view.

Mastercard wants to use Agent Pay to become my default payment system. You were talking about Bitcoin earlier today. Do you want to share some thoughts?

Peter Diamandis

Well, I think here, we’ve been talking about crypto payment mechanisms, right? You’ve got this spectrum of stuff that’s really hard to mine—Bitcoin is not that easy to do payments on—and then you get gold, say, if you want to use the old analogy. Then you have bank vaults and jewelry, which aren’t that easy to transact, and then you get to bank accounts, and then you get to credit cards. You have this spectrum: The smaller the transaction, the less security you need, and therefore you can make the usability much easier, et cetera.

What’s happened with crypto is that, along with things like the Lightning Network on the Bitcoin protocol, the payments are now really, really easy. I think we’re going to see crypto-type payments scale very, very fast, especially with digital fiat currencies moving over to the crypto world. We’re going to see incredible things happen there, and I think that’ll be the biggest trigger for the usage of blockchains and so on for handling all of that stuff.

There’s a startup, and I’m on the advisory board of it, that’s trying to figure this out, because one of the biggest problems with trade globally, separate from all the tariff stuff, is that big countries don’t like big chunks of foreign reserves leaving their shores. So they make it really difficult, put capital controls in place, and make it really hard.

There’s this famous story of GE selling $100 million worth of jet engines to China. They took in receipt of $150 million worth of frozen chickens as payment, and then the extra $50 million meant that now they had to deal with all these chickens. Hence the margin.

But it turns out that type of transaction is rampant in big companies, because China’s like, “We don’t want $100 million leaving our shores,” right? A combination of crypto plus some of these payment rails is going to change the game with some of these big transactions. On the smaller side, AI plus some of these will make things really radically much easier.

Salim Ismail

I love it. Digital chickens. So here’s another one. Dave, I think you added this one: NVIDIA acquires Gretel to power next-gen AI. Tell us about this story.

Dave Blundin

Yeah, I think this is important because we talked last time about the CoreWeave IPO, which is holding up just fine. Is that the bellwether to the markets opening? M&A has been very quiet. Now you’re starting to see some deal flow, and that all ties back to the IPO markets opening up. The last 3 years have been the most dead in the history of the country in terms of IPOs. So if that comes roaring back, that’ll unlock a lot. This is a good one to track here.

What you’re seeing here is NVIDIA recognizing that synthetic data is incredibly strategic. We talked about Richard Socher’s 10 areas of AI, some of which run unbounded and others are throttled or hobbled by some constraint. Math is unbounded; coding is unbounded. Why? Because you can generate a near-infinite amount of synthetic data, which means the AI can continue to learn.

Then you can build really easy evals: Did the AI do something useful, or is it buggy? Does it not work? The math is provable, the code is debuggable automatically, and those areas require synthetic data.

But you look across the other areas, like biotech and everything else, and synthetic data is the constraint, because AI can run wild to the extent that it can generate synthetic data. I think NVIDIA, being in the middle of the hot seat, realizes, “Oh, my God, what a great opportunity to create some kind of a moat. Let’s pick up Gretel and let’s build out a synthetic data competency as part of our overall strategy. While we’re top of the world, we need to think about how to defend our position on top of the world.” So that’s why they picked up Gretel.

Salim Ismail

Nice. Yeah, I think this is a really great strategic thing. You saw Zoom doing the same thing when its market cap went so high: They started buying up a whole bunch of stuff, leveraging their currency while it was high.

As an investment theme, synthetic data is very different in each domain. Obviously, synthetic data from a whole-cell simulator in biotech is going to be very different from synthetic data in math. So it’s a great repeatable investment theme if you can find really, really smart teams, because I think NVIDIA could easily acquire 10 more companies doing different things. Are you investing in synthetic data?

Dave Blundin

Yeah, we have DataCebo, which is a co-investment with Mark Gorenberg, the chairman at MIT. They do column-wise numerical synthetic data, so things like actuarial or whatever.

But again, if you had physical-world synthetic data, like simulators for physical objects driving data, those are all investable. We’ll do any synthetic data company we can find if it has a great team.

Peter Diamandis

Fantastic. All right, here’s one that I added: Kleiner Perkins leads a $130 million round in Coinbase founder’s anti-aging startup, NewLimit.

Let me break this down. Brian Armstrong and Blake Byers are both friends. I’m going to have Brian on this Moonshots podcast sometime next month. They’re both passionate about longevity, and what we’ve seen is a number of billionaires investing in something called epigenetic reprogramming.

What is that? As I like to remind people, you get 3.2 billion letters from your mom and 3.2 billion letters from your dad. That’s your genome—about 22,000 genes. You have that same software when you’re born, when you’re 20, when you’re 50, and when you’re 100.

So the question is, if you’re running the same software, why do you look different? Why don’t you have the 6-pack at age 100 that you had when you were 18?

It turns out it’s not the genes you have; it’s your epigenome. “Epi” comes from the Greek word for “above.” It’s which genes—it’s your control system. It’s which genes are on and which genes are off. As you get older, the genes that should be on get silenced and turned off. The genes that should be off get turned on, and there are a whole bunch of issues.

Folks like George Church and David Sinclair have been pioneering this. Epigenetic reprogramming asks: Can we turn back the clock and set your epigenome to an earlier state? The data appears to be not only yes, but hell yes. It’s probably one of the hottest areas of age-reversal work and longevity.

I just find it fascinating that Brian is investing here. We’ve seen Jeff Bezos and Yuri Milner invest in Altos Labs. Sam Altman invested in Retro Biosciences with Joe Betts-LaCroix. Same area: epigenetic reprogramming. So, yeah, very exciting.

Salim Ismail

It should be noted that a lot of this is now made possible because of AI.

Peter Diamandis

Oh, how so?

Salim Ismail

The ability to actually process all the data from the experiments and decide what transcription factors to use is enormous. We are 40 trillion human cells running 2 to 5 billion chemical reactions per second, and just trying to understand the amount of data is really hard.

When I visited both Brian and Blake at NewLimit, they were very proud: The majority of their team are all AI-first technologists. They’re not lab geeks.

Peter Diamandis

So, any thoughts here?

Dave Blundin

I think, as our AI models get more sophisticated, the ability to apply them—that number blows. I never stop shaking my head when you say that number of 2.5 billion chemical processes per second.

Peter Diamandis

That may be across the body, but there’s some incredible number just in a cell. Isn’t it per cell?

Salim Ismail

That’s per cell, right? That’s just unbelievable—trillions of cells, right?

Dave Blundin

Yeah, it’s just mind-boggling how complex what goes on in there is. It’s going to be amazing to see what’s possible going forward.

Well, definitely not my area of expertise, but I remember clearly: I took AP Biology in high school, and then I got to MIT and said, “Yeah, not doing that anymore,” because all we were doing was memorizing random Krebs cycles. There’s no way this is actually going to work. There must be billions of times more things going on than what we’re memorizing here.

Salim Ismail

So true. So true.

Peter Diamandis

All right. I have 2 13-year-old, soon-to-be-14-year-old boys. Salim, you have 1, and Roblox is part of their, if not daily diet, weekly diet. I found this amazing: Roblox is averaging up to 43% of Netflix users, with 97.8 million average daily active users and 7.2 billion hours. It’s just exploded onto the scene. We can see this rapid, rapid growth of the gaming world.

Dave, did your boys all sort of go deep into the gaming world?

Dave Blundin

Well, it’s interesting. I wouldn’t say they were big-time gamers, but if you look at the amount of time they spent on interactive media, including Fortnite and some video games, it was much, much higher than passive media like movies and Star Trek or whatever.

So, that's just the trend line. But you add AI on top of video games, and it's so incredibly engaging. There's no way people are going to go back and watch passive media again. And I think it still really hasn't hit, right? If you're in Minecraft or Roblox, the amount of AI-generated reality and the amount of AI interaction with you—we're going to see a lot of advancement in the gaming world in the next few years.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah. You know, the other thing is gaming is dominated by young boys. It largely misses the girls, for whatever reason, but it definitely misses older people. The new, super-engaging AI voices actually tend to cover everybody, and so it's going to have a lot broader appeal. Any numbers you see in this world are going to go up tremendously just by covering the rest of humanity.

Also, MrBeast now, I think, is the most recognized person on the planet, which is shocking. And that might be among stars or have some other qualifier, but it's an incredible stat. One of the secrets to MrBeast's incredible success is the internationalization of all content. When you see MrBeast in any jurisdiction, any country, any language, his voice is in that language and his lips move perfectly—or well—for that language.

You wouldn't even know that it wasn't shot for you in the Congo. He mastered that using AI, and that got him a lot of the footprint. The same thing applies here to internationalizing the language, but also the content and the media, making it a cultural fit for every jurisdiction.

Salim Ismail

What struck me about this was that almost all of that increment is mobile stuff. So they're doing it everywhere.

Dave Blundin

That's crazy.

Salim Ismail

Yeah. Amazing. All right, let's move on here. Let's talk about what's going on in the space world. The first news is that Amazon—this is Jeff Bezos—launches the first batch of Project Kuiper internet satellites. We've seen Elon and Bezos marching up the curve in space. Amazon launched 27 satellites for its global internet. Ultimately, this will be thousands of satellites in orbit.

I find it interesting they used an Atlas V. Of course, Jeff has something called Blue Origin, which is building rockets. Today, it's launching suborbital flights, but it did get one of its first New Glenn vehicles to orbit. I think he's feeling pressure to get Kuiper up and running at the same time that Starlink is now probably close to 8,000 or 9,000 satellites. So they're buying launches from ULA instead of using his own launch vehicle. It's going to be interesting to have these 2 internet constellations in orbit operating.

Here's a question I have. Have you seen, Peter, any kind of estimate as to, once you've got high-functioning internet over space—which we kind of just about are there now—how much will move to that versus terrestrial internet?

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, it's a good question. You still have time delays, but one of our next articles coming up, which we'll talk about, is quantum teleportation, and that would get rid of time delays. If you add quantum teleportation on satellite constellations, yeah, it's instantaneous and global. It starts to get pretty freaky.

We're going to start—we'll have, I think, probably 30,000 or 40,000 communications satellites in orbit. We'll have a constellation around the Moon. We'll have a constellation around Mars. All of those will be cross-linked by laser. So you'll have an interplanetary internet up and operating very shortly.

Salim Ismail

Vint Cerf has been talking about that for a while. In fact, he's designed the proper communication protocols for that.

Peter Diamandis

He has indeed, and it's all playing out.

Salim Ismail

Here's the second space article: SpaceX has asked to increase its rate of Starship launches. Starship, of course, is the fully reusable version. It will replace Falcon 9, the most successful launch vehicle in all of human history. Elon has said that, as soon as Starship is operational, he will shut down the Falcon 9 launch factory.

We've seen permission for 5 launches a year. They're asking for 25 launches per year out of Boca Chica, which is Starbase. He's gotten a lot of criticism for the failures of Starship. It still has not had a fully successful mission, but, oh my God, what he's been able to pull off is nothing short of extraordinary.

I hate it when he has this amazing launch, the Mechazilla captures the booster, which is the engineering feat of the decade, if not the century, and then Starship doesn't make it to a landing. Of course, the front-page articles are, “SpaceX fails again.”

Peter Diamandis

Yeah. Crazy. We focus on bad news.

Salim Ismail

But the one thing that really bugged me about this particular article, Peter, was that if the FAA had them allowing 5 and now they're allowing 25, why do they care? Why do you have to get approval for the number of launches? This makes no sense to me.

Peter Diamandis

It's environmental impact. They're incrementally trying to make sure—and I hate to say this—that they're not killing the number of turtles, or that the impact of—

Salim Ismail

Are you kidding? But once you've done a few, which he has, the environmental impact—there should be no reason. They should have nothing to say about you doing 10 more, 20 more, or 50.

Peter Diamandis

They don't want unbridled, unrestricted operations.

Salim Ismail

That's hilarious.

Peter Diamandis

That's all right. All right. You know the math as well as I do. It's hilarious.

Salim Ismail

Yeah. I mean, you did your 11-year penance there, Peter, with Zero-G.

Peter Diamandis

I did my 11-year penance. It's like the FAA is not happy until you're not happy.

Salim Ismail

I do wonder, whenever you see a Starship blow up or whatever, whether a lot of the backlash is actually political. People are pissed off, and actually a lot of Elon's support base was very green-energy, Tesla-oriented, and so now they're all pissed off. But I think he's doing what he thinks is absolutely best for the world, regardless of the cost. I think it's impressive.

Peter Diamandis

Starship will get us back to the Moon. It's the only vehicle to get us there. NASA's government projects, I don't think, will end up getting to the Moon. I think they're just too expensive and too risky.

Starship will get us to the Moon. Starship will set up orbital fuel depots. Starship will get us to Mars. It's an incredibly well-designed vehicle, and he just needs to continually iterate it.

People don't realize that when airplanes begin test flights, every test flight is a small iteration, and airplanes may have hundreds of test flights in their test-flight program before they get certified as safe for use. We need to expect that Starship will have hundreds of test flights, each one getting more data and demonstrating increasing margins and safety, until it's like, “Yep, this is going to be great to operate,” just like autonomous cars.

But unfortunately, these incremental test flights are very visible, and when they go wrong, The New York Times is here to talk about it.

Salim Ismail

It's explicit that they run dozens and dozens of experiments per flight because that gives them the maximum rate of learning, right?

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, of course. Exactly. They're changing the margins and the material type. They're changing how they stage. They're changing their reentry characteristics.

Salim Ismail

All right, let's get to this fun article here. I'll read it from the BBC. “Quantum teleportation is here.” Quantum teleportation is the instant transfer of quantum information, not matter, between 2 points. It uses quantum entanglement, where 2 particles stay connected even miles apart. The first real-world test worked over 30 kilometers of standard fiber-optic cable carrying internet traffic.

Peter, I remember years ago all of the quant traders moved their fiber-optic nodes very close to the financial centers because nanoseconds matter to them.

Peter Diamandis

Yep. Yep. So I think they're going to be using quantum teleportation here for instant communication capability. If we end up using it for stock prices, I'll be very disappointed. But your point's right.

Salim Ismail

Look, the amazing thing is that this is happening. I think the reality check is that this will take quite a while to commercialize, get reliable, and be used for real-world applications. But the fact that they're able to do it is mind-boggling.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, it's fun to think about. Why do we think it'll take a while to become real at scale, other than everything takes a while?

Salim Ismail

I spent some time at the Perimeter Institute at Waterloo, where the BlackBerry founders have given a huge chunk of money, and they've broken up quantum research into 3 chunks. One was pure computation, the second was communication, and the third was networking. You have to rebuild the entire stack of how you do it for each of those.

So there's a whole bunch of innovation and engineering that has to happen for all of those 3 segments to have reliable communications and teleportation, certainly at scale.

Peter Diamandis

So there, it’ll take a while to get there. They’ve been going at this for, I think, close to 30 years, and they’re now getting to this point. So I think it’ll be a little while longer. But when it happens, holy moly.

The nice thing is, it’s over standard fiber optics, right?

Dave Blundin

Yeah, it’s not new equipment. We’re not needing to build out a new network, right?

Peter Diamandis

Here’s another fun article in the realm of future-forward space: “Electron dance breakthrough: Scientists uncover clues to practical superconductors.” Researchers discovered that superconductivity varies at the atomic scale within individual unit cells of iron-based materials.

I won’t read the rest, but we’ve been talking about how one of the major benefits AI will give us is major breakthroughs in materials science. Superconductivity would be a huge deal because, at the extreme, you could put solar cells around the planet. If it’s nighttime here in the U.S., you could have solar energy being generated in Europe and have a superconducting cable back to the U.S. You’d basically get no transmission loss, right? It’s what, 30% or something?

Dave Blundin

It depends on the distance, of course, but it’s a huge amount.

Peter Diamandis

I remember Shy Minez [?], one of our GSP Singularity students in 2010 or 2011, saying he figured we were about a decade away from understanding superconductivity and getting to room-temperature superconductivity at the lab level. This sounds like we’re coming close to that.

Dave Blundin

Well, if it’s a decade out, we’re going to have Gen III fission and fusion, and those are very small reactors, so they can be sprinkled around.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, yeah. So it may not matter on that.

Salim Ismail

There’s a big race between this and distributed energy systems that makes it less relevant.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, that’s right. All right, let’s talk about one of our favorite subjects. At least it’s a favorite subject for Salim and me. Actually, Dave, I don’t know: Are you a big Bitcoin believer? I know our third fraternity brother is, for sure.

Dave Blundin

Well, you know, I was on the board of MicroStrategy back in the day, so I’ve been a shareholder for many, many years. I wouldn’t say I was ever a direct Bitcoin early adopter, but Michael Saylor has dragged me along.

Peter Diamandis

Let me ask the question: Do you own Bitcoin via MicroStrategy?

Dave Blundin

Yeah.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, you own MicroStrategy, but not Bitcoin directly?

Dave Blundin

No, not directly, mostly because I’d lose the keys.

Peter Diamandis

Fair enough. I can make some introductions.

Here is Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, speaking about the U.S. holding Bitcoin. Let’s take a listen.

“I think it’s clear at this point that Bitcoin is a better form of money than gold. It is provably scarce, just like gold, but it’s more portable and divisible, so you can actually use it. It has higher utility, I would say. It was the best-performing asset of the last 10 years.

“For store of value, I think it’s going to be important for governments to hold this over time. It may start with being 1% of their reserves, but I think over time it’ll come to be equal to or greater than gold reserves.”

Okay, great. Salim, I want you to weigh in here. I think this is mind-boggling to me.

Salim Ismail

Let me give my reaction in a couple of ways. I spoke at a conference of 100 of the top partners of one of the biggest accounting firms in the world. When I asked them, “How many of you understand the Byzantine Generals Problem?” 1 put up his hand. You’re like, “This thing is going to eat your lunch in terms of trust and reliability, which is essentially what you sell.” You don’t understand the core innovation that’s taken place in it, which really is unbelievable to me.

When MicroStrategy put Bitcoin on the balance sheet, every CFO in the goddamn world should be looking at that and saying, “I need to put something in there.” It’s unbelievably irresponsible if you’re the Treasury secretary of some country not to put Bitcoin in as a reserve asset. This should be happening in every country in the world.

One of the things we’ve noticed before, where I’ve commented before, is that it’s fascinating seeing the amount of my portfolio investment growing because of Bitcoin. Not because I’m getting more Bitcoin, but because it’s just getting more valuable.

I was talking to a major money-management firm in one of the G7 countries, and they said, “Yeah, we don’t allow our wealth managers or wealth advisers to transact in Bitcoin at all. They’re not allowed to advise it to their clients because they deem it too uncertain and too risky.” You’re like, “Look at the goddamn value over time.” They’re scared of the legal liability if they recommend it. And I’m saying to them, “Do you realize the liability if you don’t recommend it?”

Peter Diamandis

During the course of our conversation here, Bitcoin is now at $96,450. It’s gone up $1,500 during the course of our podcast conversation.

Salim Ismail

I’ll give you another case study. I’m the chairman and majority, or controlling, shareholder of 2 companies with about 1,000 employees. One of them has about $50 million in cash just sitting there in cash. The other has $125 million in cash. It’s a public company with $125 million in cash and making a lot of cash every quarter.

I gave both CEOs the green light: Put any amount of that you want into Bitcoin, and borrow and do what Michael Saylor did. Neither reacted or acted on it. I don’t want to interfere, otherwise I’ll be involved, but it’s amazing.

Peter Diamandis

Well, I mean, then you’re obligated. They’re both great, great leadership teams.

I mean, we did the same thing, Salim. We were holding a large amount of capital, and it was like, “Yes, you know, both of you are on my board. I need you to help convince the other old-fogey board members.” Excuse me if you’re listening, guys. You’re brilliant and I love you, but can we please put our treasury into Bitcoin?

Salim Ismail

An easy thing to do there would be to take a small fraction of it and just let it do 1 cycle around.

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, a small fraction, like 80%.

Salim Ismail

Yeah.

Peter Diamandis

Well, it makes Michael Saylor all the more impressive that, without any role model, he just went ahead and did it. Now we have a role model, but without any role model, it was just entrepreneurship.

Salim Ismail

This is the part that drives me nuts now that we have a role model, right? If you’re the CFO of a public company, what the hell are you doing?

Peter Diamandis

Yeah, it really drives me nuts.

Salim Ismail

You’re doing what you’ve always done because that’s the least risky, and you can’t get blamed for doing that. This is the same thing in all technology companies: It is the founder-led, exponential-tech, AI-first companies that are going to slay everybody else.

When Michael Saylor—by way of background, Michael was a fraternity brother with Dave Blundin and myself at MIT, at Theta Delta Chi, our fraternity—when you’re Michael Saylor, you can say, “We are doing this.” He has a very small board, and he basically sat them down, gave them homework, and got them to back him. He’s just been at it.

The first week of May, he actually sold equity and bought another $180 million of Bitcoin. Today, MicroStrategy owns basically 500,000 Bitcoin, which is about 2.8% of all the Bitcoin in circulation, worth $52.8 billion. Michael owns about 17,000 more Bitcoin than I do.

Peter Diamandis

Oh, you’re doing well.

Michael not only had to do exactly what you said, but he had to go over to Mike Willis of Fidelity, another MIT alum, and say, “Hey, I need to custody this somewhere. Can Fidelity build out an entire business unit to custody Bitcoin?” To his credit, Mike Willis built it out at Fidelity.

That’s a lot of difficult work that’s now been done for you.

Salim Ismail

Yes, but pioneering it was very hard for a lot of reasons, including that one. You can’t just keep the keys in your shoebox at the office headquarters. You’ve got to have some kind of multisig protocols and all sorts of stuff.

Peter Diamandis

I just checked the market cap of MicroStrategy at today’s close: $105.4 billion, while holding $52.8 billion worth of coins. The value it’s being given for his mindset and what he does is extraordinary.

Dave Blundin

I was sitting down with my mom, who’s in her 80s, going through her estate, and she had this spreadsheet she put together. There was this line item with a huge number in it. I was like, “What the hell is that?” She said, “Oh, you know, remember when you worked at MicroStrategy when you were in your 20s?” I said, “Yeah.” She said, “I bought some MicroStrategy back then.” I was like, “Wait, you’re still holding that?” And she said, “Yeah. Well, I don’t know how to sell it, so I didn’t.”

Peter Diamandis

Go, Mom. That is so great.

Salim Ismail

That is fantastic.

Peter Diamandis

Well, I think that’s our last story for today. It’s so much fun. Are you guys having as much of a blast as I am?

Salim Ismail

Oh, God, I look forward to this all week.

Peter Diamandis

It’s really a great checkpoint where we can kind of go, “Okay, what happened?” bring some slides into play, and just take a checkpoint. I find it’s a really great cadence. Plus, all the viewers—I hear that, by the way, from a few of the folks watching. They’re like, “It’s really great because we can every week or 2 stop in and see what’s going on.”

We feel like we’re caught up. Yeah, that’s the goal here. So it’s fun. When we say, “WTF just happened in tech?” well, there’s a slice of it. We’ll see you guys in a week or two, when enough stuff starts mounting and we say, “Okay, we’ve got to get the band back together again.” Awesome. All right, Salim, where are you? Great conversation, guys. Where are you now? Are you back in New York?

Salim Ismail

New York? I’m back in New York for 3 days, and then I go to Italy for 3 days.

Peter Diamandis

What is going on?

Salim Ismail

It’s just a busy time right now.

Peter Diamandis

You’re insane, and I love you for it. And Dave, you’re back in Cambridge at headquarters.

Dave Blundin

I’m in Cambridge, and I’ll tell you one thing, Peter. I love every time I talk to Daniela Rus over at CSAIL, or Alex Wissner-Gross, or Alexander Amini over at Liquid AI. I can say, “Hey, we’ve got this WTF podcast coming up. What’s on your mind?” And they’re like, “Yes.” It’s such a good way to keep the dialogue. I love it.

So I want you guys piling in your best stories, those secret stories. You’ve got Alex Wissner-Gross—he’s a superweapon there—and, Salim, you’ve got an entire ExO community. So bring them in, and see you guys very soon. Thanks for your time.

Peter Diamandis

Always a pleasure.

Salim Ismail

Great conversation, guys. Thanks, Peter.