SpaceX：下一轮超级泡沫的起点，还是这轮行情的终点？

I'm slowly becoming a communist. This is the most erratic thing. Five years ago, I was a fascist. Five years ago, I held extremely conservative opinions.

The way that the market and wealthy people are acting today—as if they have a God-given right to continue becoming wealthier at the expense of the middle class—I really deeply respect Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Larry Ellison, and everyone who's building a company. What I don't respect are the people who now have so much capital in the private markets that they're hoarding all of the wealth generated by the high-functioning, high-production people in our society.

That's not okay. You can't do that. They have to build for the country. They have to build for the community. That's what makes a civil society strong. When you look back at what the robber barons did—

Yeah, they built universities.

Universities, libraries, public works, and parks. They put their names on everything, and they built for society. They made the world a better place for your average person.

And we need to do that again. That's actually very important.

What an exciting day. The biggest IPO that's ever happened is coming out at $1.77 trillion. This thing goes from $135 to $177 a share in 35 seconds. It's actually still trading about there. It's holding the highs of the day, which is actually very impressive, it looks like.

Not a lot of supply has come online, and the market is ripping. The market's doing very well. A lot of the things that we were nervous about have been shoved to the side by the fact that these companies just continue to print money.

There was a deal that Google struck with Intel: they're going to be buying TPUs. Google has this specific processing unit called a TPU that they used to only buy from TSMC, which is the production facility in Taiwan. Now they've struck a deal with Intel to buy 3 million units from Intel. Pretty amazing, because Intel has been working very hard to make sure that its chips are competitive, and they basically haven't been for the entirety of Intel's existence. Now they're actually making competitive chips.

We've got the SpaceX IPO blowing up. We've got Intel running. We've got SanDisk at highs. It looks like animal spirits are back in the market, and that's a very, very good sign.

I do love coming from the world of crypto, guys, because it really teaches you to focus on what matters. So many people are getting sidetracked by the fact that SpaceX is trading at 94x revenues. It doesn't matter. Actually, it doesn't matter at all, and the reason it doesn't matter is because this is new-age finance.

You could trade at 300x earnings if you are a company that's building in a megatrend. You're safe until you prove to the market that you can't deliver on what you promised. But until then, you're safe. This is true with Nvidia as well.

People don't know this, but if you actually go look at the chart of Nvidia and go back to 2023, when Nvidia was trading at $47, its price-to-sales ratio was about 45. That's massive. It's a massive price-to-sales ratio. SpaceX is at 94.

1. Don't Short Elon: The Low-Float Meme Coin

But guess what happened? Every year since then, every month since then, that price-to-sales ratio came down because they were building in a megatrend, and that meant the demand for chips went through the roof. I think we might see a very similar thing happen here with SpaceX. Not only do we have the megatrend in terms of supply supporting this ratio, we also have the fact that it is an Elon company. We all know what Elon does to these multiples.

You look at Tesla. Arguably, Tesla is actually in a much weaker megatrend. You can say whatever you want. I just killed that bug live on stream. Wow, I'm so good.

Actually, hold on. I'm getting word. It actually looks like Jonah's here. I guess it's not my livestream.

No, I stream-bombed you. This is called stream-bombing in the industry.

How was that?

In the industry.

I mean, a surprise guest, but it's the same guest that we always have. Good to see you, Jonah. You're looking good.

Good to see you, too. Sorry to disappoint. I have the same studio link as you, so I saw you streaming and just thought I'd stop by.

Did you hear what I was saying about SpaceX? Have you been watching the market today? What's your take?

Yeah. First of all, Hyperliquid arbitrageurs seem to have done a good job aligning the pre-IPO price with the actual IPO price. Shout-out to Hyperliquid. What an awesome vehicle for trading things before they actually need to trade in the public markets.

My first takeaway is, wow, Hyperliquid's good. This is the liquidity venue. To your point on our last podcast, Avi, the social contract has been a bit broken by private markets. Basically, anybody without $1 million and accredited-investor status couldn't really—

Specifically by Zionists is what I'm hearing.

Yeah, I got a great comment that the social contract has been broken by the Zionists.

By the Jews.

Basically, first takeaway is, wow, Hyperliquid's going to democratize access to a lot of what was previously inaccessible stuff. Second takeaway: Elon is the best in the world at achieving the lowest cost of capital.

This thing is—no other entrepreneur could pull this off. It's trading at $2 trillion because he said it was worth $2 trillion, and people just sort of bought it there. I've never seen an organized effort to pump a stock like this on vibes-based valuations in public markets. It's crazy.

Final takeaway—here, let me share my screen.

Please do.

I've got it. I've got an image for you. Here we go. The FT published this: “How much will managers need to buy if they don't want to short Elon?” This is basically a list of indices that need to buy SpaceX. You can see all the different ones: MSCI, Nasdaq, Russell, FTSE Russell.

Shorting Elon is genuinely career risk.

That's right.

And so you can't—you really can't.

Day 5, you've got $8 billion of inflows. Day 10, you've got $1 billion, and then Day 15, you've got another $5 billion. Basically, what this says to me is that this is a low-float, high-FDV memecoin with huge inflows rather than outflows coming. Do not short this thing. I've no idea what it's doing.

You can't. One of the things that you have to learn from crypto is that low float can take you a very long way. There are scam protocols that went to a $50 billion valuation solely because there was low float and retail mania. The market is more retail than ever, and you know what retail does? They often don't look at market cap; they just look at price.

SpaceX probably should have listed at $1. It'd actually probably be $3 by now instead of—you know, which would be the equivalent of $300 if they did it right. But I do want to point out one thing: we are in the age of megatrends, and SpaceX actually can grow into its valuation. It's just a matter of time.

People are willing, because of what happened with AI—I don't know if you remember this—back in 2015 and 2016, WallStreetBets was in love with AMD. They were like, “The chips are the future, chips are the future, chips are the future.” Sometimes it just does take a really long time for the future to arrive.

2. Bears Die

People have been excited about the expansion of semiconductors being embedded into every facet of our life for a very long time. Starting with ChatGPT in 2023, that took on a life of its own. It still took 3 years. I mean, we're saying this goes up 80x in the last 18 months. Right? You could have bought it right after ChatGPT, and you still had to wait a decent amount of time for it to really start to reprice.

I think people are just more lenient with the idea that these companies can end up generating significant amounts of revenue. SpaceX itself is probably going to be the only company in the world that can mine asteroids in the next 20 years.

Who knows what's going to happen once we start mining asteroids? How much of our materials are going to come from space 30 years from now, and is SpaceX going to be the largest company in the world because they're the only people that can actually extract it? They're the only people that spent the time to build the technology out.

They're not just a space company, either. They have Starlink. It could quite literally take on Verizon, AT&T, and Comcast because it is better. Additionally, we're in a much more dangerous world today than we ever have been in the past, and SpaceX, as you see with the Ukraine war, can provide massive strategic advantages in warfare. This is just next level.

So basically, my advice to you as an investor and as a trader is: don’t short assets that have the potential to conquer the world. The market is almost always more optimistic than it is pessimistic. Bears die. Bears consistently die.

People believe in the American dream. They believe in the American stock market, and they’re going to continue to buy these assets, whether they work or not, until they prove to you that they’re not going to work. Until SpaceX proves to you—unless, God forbid, knock on wood, a rocket blows up, or Starlink fails, or they just can’t actually deliver—I think it’s going to do well.

Maybe it’ll sell off 50%, and then it’ll go up 5x in the meantime, because space is going to be an industry that will be huge. It’s just a matter of time.

3. Wait For The Dump: The $135 Trade

Yeah, I mean, I would neither buy nor sell at this price. Actually, there’s a guy in my network who bought a lot of xAI stock back in the 2021–22 fundraise. Then xAI got acquired by SpaceX, so it converted into SpaceX private equity, and now he’s getting his liquidity event.

He wanted to hedge his bets, so he basically created an SPV that effectively says, “All right, I’m going to sell to you, Jonah, at the IPO price”—at whatever it was, $135 a share. I thought that was a really good idea because, as we just showed in the previous image, there are a lot of inflows right now, but the big unlocks—the selling—don’t come for 3, 4, 5, 6 months from now. That’s when Elon and the employees unlock.

But this guy had liquid shares on day 1. So I went through the SPV documents, and he’s charging 30% of the first day’s rally. Obviously, we all agree it’s going to rally on day 1. He was like, “As a fee for this access, I’m going to charge you 30% of the price appreciation times the dollar value of your shares on day 1.”

I’m making the face that people hate in our thumbnail because that’s the most ridiculous thing. I’m like, “30% of first-day price appreciation? I’ve never heard such a horrific SPV.”

Right, that’s his fee. Then there was nothing in the SPV about the delivery mechanism. So if there was a problem transferring the shares, you could be in a scenario where it rallies a lot on day 1, you owe a huge fee, but by the time the shares actually hit your account, the stock is down 50%. So you just get double-dildoed. That’s the technical term for that.

Basically, I said, “Pass.” I’m looking at it now; it’s up 25%. I guess I would have captured 17% of that on the size I was willing to do. That was still hundreds of thousands of dollars of profit that I’m foregoing, so I’m feeling a little FOMO.

But I have to remind myself in these times that everybody out there is probably feeling a little bit of FOMO. There’s no efficient way to trade this right now. One of the best trades of my life was just waiting for Facebook to collapse after it IPO’d, with all the insider selling, and then buying that dip. I bought it at $19 or $18 a share. Idiotically, I sold it all at $30 and missed the run-up to $700, but I did get a good buy-in.

So I think that may be the playbook here: just sit on your hands, wait till the insiders have way too much to sell so they can buy their San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles real estate, and then buy. I don’t know. What do you think?

I think that’s a very reasonable approach, but for me, I have no idea whether SpaceX is going up 25% first or down 25% first. My bet would be down 25% first from current levels, because, yes, there probably is going to be some dumping.

This could look very much like an airdrop trade, actually, where you basically just chuck out the supply that’s online right now, then you get a mega-rally, and then 6 months later you get all the share selling, and then you sell at an actual reasonable price.

If we trade down to $135, because that’s where it was priced, that is a screaming buy. I’m going to take an 8% to 10% position on that for a quick 50% flip from there, because I think a lot of retail investors feel like they missed it. A lot of people actually didn’t get filled.

Robinhood seemed to do the best job at filling people who bid for it, but a lot of other banks and a lot of other people didn’t actually get filled there. So there’s still a lot of retail, because they cut down the allocation. They originally were going to have 30% of the float allocated to retail, and I think they got down to 20%.

A lot of the institutional capital is held by long-term holders, sovereign wealth funds, and people that aren’t going to sell. So if we get back down—maybe we get to $140—maybe start scaling in at $142. You buy it, you resell it at $160 or $170. That’s just a trade. That’s a trade that I’m looking at.

4. Intel, Uranium & The First Warsh Meeting

On a more structural time horizon, I’m bullish on SpaceX. I think that the chip trade is still better because I think it’s very difficult to go from $1.7 trillion to $3 trillion, whereas I think Intel could still get to $1 trillion. I think—what is it?—$600 billion or something like that now. So I think we could get there on Intel.

SanDisk is up. From the recent low of $1,400, it’s already back up to $2,000. It’s pushing all-time highs. So I think that’s probably a better longer-term trade. Midterm, I’m also rebuying uranium. I’m rebuying a lot of uranium after that sell-off, and I’m deploying some of that cash.

I know I said on the last pod I was 50% cash, and basically what happened that was great is that it looks like we’re coming to a deal with Iran. Not only that, the market just keeps printing. We just keep making money across the board. So I’m pretty bullish, man. I’m sort of flipping back to a little bit of short-term bullishness.

I do think that one thing we’re going to have to watch out for in the next week is that we actually have the first Fed meeting with Kevin Warsh, which I think we’re going to need to pay attention to. Wow, spam calls go crazy.

Nothing’s going to happen. I think there’s a 99% chance that quite literally nothing’s going to happen. But we get to hear him speak, and we get to hear what he’s interested in, what he’s nervous about, and whether he’ll give us forward guidance or not.

He’s no Powell, and he’s said that, but we’ll basically see how he decides to run the ship. That’s actually going to be very interesting, because if he’s in a very confident position and we go into a hike cycle, we’re back to where we were.

But for now, okay, I tried to be bearish. We sold off a decent amount, and then we bounced. Now things are trending back to—basically, like, on Intel, right? On the last few pods, I was like, “Okay, maybe I want to buy sub-$100, maybe even get to $80.”

Then what happens is Intel trades at $99, bounces, and this thing with Google comes out. I’m like, “Well, what am I supposed to do? I have to get back into this thing because they just signed a massive contract with Google, and it seems like they’re actually being competitive again.”

So I think I’m getting back in the market now, because I think you just have to.

Picking your spots.

Yeah, picking your spots. I think I’m just going to sit on my hands for the time being and look for trades like the SpaceX trade.

5. Why Every Space Stock Crashed (And OpenAI's IPO Will Too)

One reason that I’m bullish: this tells you what’s happening in the market. This tells you how different the market is today than it’s ever been in the past. Every other space company—Rocket Lab, SPCE, or Virgin Galactic—is down 30% today, Jonah. I call it “Spice” because of the ticker.

Why do you think that is?

Because they were all filled with retail. People were piggybacking. This was the classic crypto trade. People were just piggybacking on this idea, on this narrative. They’re like, “Oh, what? People don’t know where to put their money. I’m going to put my money in freaking Rocket Lab because SpaceX is IPOing,” and that has nothing to do with how well Rocket Lab is going to do.

It has nothing to do with how well Virgin Galactic is going to do. In fact, it probably makes Virgin Galactic less interesting. If Virgin Galactic doubles leading up into the IPO, retail is going nuts. They’re just shoving money into everything.

That sell-off today is the liquidity suck. That’s why I think that the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO will be a bearish event for the market. You heard it here first—or second or third. A couple of people have had this take, but very specifically, I’m looking at what happened in space.

They’re a lot more AI-adjacent. Google is AI-adjacent. Amazon is AI-adjacent. All of the Magnificent 7 is AI-adjacent. When new supply comes online for the same vertical, money shifts around. If OpenAI and Anthropic are not included in the Nasdaq, indexes are going to go down just as a function of money splashing around.

They’re not going to be. They’re unprofitable.

Exactly. So you see what I’m saying? The indexes are going to go down. There might actually be net wealth creation in the market. Net-net, if people bid up OpenAI and bid up Anthropic and pull out of these other assets, we might have a richer world. But the indexes, by virtue of construction, are not going to do well, in my personal opinion.

Yeah, imagine SpaceX—all those big boys—unlocking and trying to get the liquidity they've been waiting 20 years for, right at the same time as OpenAI and Anthropic come to market. It's a lot of selling, frankly. So, it's funny: You talk about retail just struggling. Cash is trash. You can't just save your money anymore because they keep printing dollars. So, you try to put your money somewhere.

Space is cool. It's definitely a megatrend. The image of Elon Musk's Optimus robots running a mass driver on the moon, launching data centers into deep outer space, is kind of compelling to a lot of people. It's a lot more exciting to hop on that bandwagon than crypto or whatever else. So, people are putting their money there.

6. SpaceX Hits $1.77 Trillion

But I saw a tweet that kind of captures the zeitgeist of what's going on right now in SpaceX. This guy, McAllister Higgins, writes, “I'm at the bottom of a multilayer SPV, and looking forward to the SpaceX IPO in much the same way a golden retriever looks forward to a car ride. Thrilled to be involved, no clue how cars work, and unsure if we're going to the park or if I'm getting neutered.” And getting my balls cut off, right? Without much further ado, that kind of sums it up.

When you neuter a dog, they still end up happy.

Yeah, exactly. So, can we clip that? I need to clip that of Jonah, just like that 3.5-millisecond bit.

[laughter]

Basically, retail is—and I don't want to be condescending to retail. I'm retail too.

Retail now. We used to not be retail.

Yeah. So, we used to be on top of the game. In fact, I was one of the youngest people ever managing over $1 billion in crypto. Fun fact: When I was at BlockTower, I was 26 years old, managing $1.5 billion. And now I just dick around on livestream with you guys because why not?

You're a YouTuber now.

Now I'm a fucking streamer. I mean, I don't think I'm a streamer. I still don't think of myself as a streamer; I think of myself as an investor and a trader. And I think of myself—and you, I mean, you're a partner at Vitol, one of the largest commodity oil-trading shops in the world. But I guess we're just streamers now. Is that what we are?

We're entrepreneurs. We're retail. Put it this way—

You know, because I don't have $1 billion on my own.

[laughter]

I think of it like that golden retriever excited to be in the car, not sure if we're going to the park or going to the vet. Honestly, even when you're sitting at Vitol trading oil with your finger on the pulse, the back channels to OPEC, and all the information in the world, sometimes you feel like that. And I think right now, even the biggest institutions feel that way with SpaceX.

Goldman Sachs came out with a euphoric projection about Elon Musk building cities on Mars, and so you have to buy SpaceX at $1.75 trillion. It's just because they want the business. It's just because they want—

7. I'm Slowly Becoming A Communist

By the way, they held it. They got it. They made $100 million in fees. I think all the banks in aggregate pulled out $500 million, which takes me back. I'm slowly becoming a communist. This is the most erratic—I mean, 5 years ago I was a fascist. I mean, 5 years ago I held extremely conservative opinions. I was the first person that would say, “Do you have the courage to hate the rich, but do you have the courage to hate the poor?” I love that. I love that one.

Oh my God.

[laughter]

You have these ideas. There are definitely people out there who create their own misery, but the way that the market and the way that wealthy people are acting today, like they have a God-given right to just continue to be more wealthy at the expense of the middle class, is slowly turning me into a communist.

Maybe some of these, like Jason Calacanis, shouldn't take his money. Take that guy's money. What is he doing for the world?

His tweet: “If you're in crypto, pivot AI.” Oh my God, what a tweet.

Take these fuckers' money. Every VC fund—take their money. Just redistribute it and give it to people. You know, actually, I deeply respect Jeff Bezos, and I deeply respect Elon Musk, and I deeply respect Larry Ellison, and I deeply respect everyone who's building a company.

What I don't respect are the people who now have so much capital in the private markets that they're hoarding all of the wealth generated by the high-functioning, high-production people in our society. That's not okay. You can't do that. You have to build for the country. You have to build for the community. That's what makes a civil society strong.

When you look back at what the robber barons—they called them robber barons—they were building universities. They built libraries. They built public works. They built parks. They put their names on everything, and they built for society. They made the world a better place for your average person. And we need to do that again. That's actually very important.

Sometimes they didn't even put their names on it. Like Rockefeller: The University of Chicago is not called Rockefeller University.

Yeah, I mean, honestly, that's my biggest problem with this latest shift. It's changed a lot in my politics because of the way that people are acting.

They ought to build some stuff. That would be good.

The issue is, you can't have the government manage the money because the incentives aren't there, but maybe there's a third secret way that we haven't talked about: Georgism. We'll get into that another time.

Avi, I got to dip. Not much is on my mind other than I saw you streaming and I wanted to stream-bomb you. Dude, you've got some good takes here. You're making me feel a little bit less FOMO today. Thank you.

Well, Jonah, leave us with something. Tell us something that you're excited for this weekend.

I am just excited to spend time with my family. I know that's a boring answer, but I'm now at the point in my life where my kids are starting to be really fun. So, that's exciting for me.

I'm excited to have a relaxing weekend. It's been a long week. I hope everybody has a wonderful Friday. If you're Jewish, Shabbat Shalom. If you're not, Shabbat Shalom anyway. Have a great weekend. And I go to church on Sunday, I guess.

Shabbat Shalom, everyone. Shabbat Shalom, Avi. Love talking to you. Sorry to stream-bomb you. Get back to it. I apologize for that.

No, I'm probably not lasting much longer here. I'm no live streamer. I'm no YouTuber. I don't know what to talk about. It's kind of weird talking to myself, to be completely honest with you.

The only thing I'll leave you with here is thoughts on Aptos. Crypto's fucked, man. Infrastructure is done. We'll bleep that when we upload it, but crypto's done; infrastructure is done. All these things are just cabals at this point with a tremendous amount of insider activity, and Charles Hoskinson said it best: He's in the business of printing money, and that's what these L1s were.

It was maybe the biggest grift of a lifetime. I quite literally could not imagine a bigger grift. Everybody knew what was going on. Everybody behind the scenes kind of knew what was going on with most of these L1 infrastructure projects. Nobody really took them seriously; it was a trade for most people.

There are a few real ones that actually did try to build. Solana, for all their faults, are genuinely trying to build financial products. And that's a little different, but things like Aptos were, I think, basically a complete grift from the start. That's going to upset some people, but it's probably true. And I sort of feel the same way about the Cantons of the world that are coming out now, but I guess we'll see.

Actually, that is important: the XMR pump. On one of the streams, I think the ratio of ZEC to XMR was trading at 0.68, and I said I was very bullish on it. What ended up happening is Zcash had that “quote-unquote hack.” Or, sorry, there was a bug that may have led to the printing of infinite Zcash. It's very unlikely. We'll know in a few months whether it happened or not. Extremely unlikely. But it led to a 30% sell-off. There was that massive spike up.

As a general piece of advice, anytime you get a massive 5-standard-deviation move like that, close out every trade that you have on that asset. If you're winning, close it out. If you're losing, then you can sort of rejigger it, but I was long XMR and short ZEC because I thought the ratio would converge.

When that spike happens, you have to get out. You have to get out on those types of things. You can't get greedy when there's a news-based move, because the market's becoming a lot more efficient, and these news-based rallies or dumps tend to revert. So, you have to get out of those trades.

I view it kind of the same as today. If you were short all these space companies, expecting them to do poorly in the face of the SpaceX IPO, you have to get out of that trade now that we've had a 5- or 6-standard-deviation move on some of these assets, right?

I'm no longer in that XMR trade. I do really like the idea of XMR continuing to do well over the long run. I just don't like the idea of shorting Zcash because I'm actually quite constructive on Zcash.

I think that collectibles are a megatrend. I talked about this on the last podcast, but right now what you have is a massive wealth transfer happening between boomers and Gen Z and millennials. Gen Z and millennials really love TCGs, cards, and collectibles. Anything that appeals to people under the age of 35, I think, will continue to go up, whether it's baseball cards, Pokémon cards, or Yu-Gi-Oh! cards.

And not just cards. Figure out what the new hot thing in Silicon Valley is that people are going to want to collect, because what do you think the SpaceX guys are going to want to buy? Maybe moon rocks. I don't know. You tell me.

People don't want to just put their money in an index fund anymore because I do genuinely believe that index funds will underperform actual active selection. I think this is probably going to be a decade of hedge funds because of the way that things are shaping up. I mean, hedge funds and VC funds and the private markets—that's sort of the new game, right? And I think people are starting to realize this.

That's why every single person in Silicon Valley who makes money, every single person in tech, and even now people in the finance world are doing a lot more angel investing. I'm totally making up this number, so if I'm off by an order of magnitude, please don't shoot me, but I would wager that the average person is doing 15 to 20 times more volume in angel investments than they were doing 10 years ago.

Angel investing has just become a much bigger thing because people realize that the private markets are where the alpha is, and you can't just go invest in an index fund anymore. I also think that because of the way that the markets are trading, and because of how much more retail investors are in the market and how much money is in the market for retail, quant funds are probably going to continue to crush it. You're just going to see people absolutely clean up in that world. So, if you can figure out how to invest in some quant funds, that would be great.

I've talked about this before. Intel at 25, sold it—that's tough, man. That's really tough. To be completely honest, it is just something that you have to forget. Every day, if you're a trader, when you wake up and look at the markets, you have to look at everything with fresh eyes.

In fact, I don't look at my P&L at all when I'm actively trading. P&L is a disease of the mind. Whether it's red or whether it's green, whether you're up a million bucks or down 10, your P&L doesn't matter, and it never will. What matters is the price of the asset today and whether it will go up or down in the next day, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, or 12 months.

You have to take everything day by day and reevaluate day by day. You have to have the memory of a goldfish when it comes to trading—when it comes to lost trades, that's really what I'm saying. One of the hardest things to do as a trader is selling an asset and rebuying it higher because you're constantly thinking of what could have been.

And that is just a really bad way to live your life. It's a bad way not just in trading but in everything. You have to be resilient. You genuinely have to be a resilient human in order to be successful as a trader. And the reality is that there are a lot of people who aren't resilient. And that's okay.

If you know yourself and you know emotionally it's going to be very hard for you to stomach losses and get back in, you have 2 choices. One, you train yourself not to care. If it helps you, go set up a new brokerage account so you don't even see your old trades. I've actually done that before. I've opened new accounts and funded them because I don't want to think about my old trades. I don't want to see them. I'm just going to move my money somewhere else.

8. Audience Q&A

If you're in crypto, just make a new wallet and move your shit over. There are all sorts of little tricks that you can do, but the reality is that you have to be resilient in order to be successful as a trader.

Pikachu. Yes, that's Pikachu. Was that a question, or did you just want to say Pikachu?

ENA at all-time lows looking attractive. I have no view on ENA. I personally don't think that it makes sense as an asset long-term. I don't think that harvesting yield and issuing a stablecoin backed by "herbs"—I mean, it's a very 2023 kind of idea. So there might be a pump. It might go up, it might go down. My bet is that in 5 years it doesn't exist.

I'm super bullish on HOOD, and I've been bullish on HOOD for a long time. I think that HOOD is probably going to outperform HYPE. My guess is that right now HOOD probably outperforms HYPE over the next 6 to 12 months because HOOD has a much larger, much more diversified income stream.

And the reality is that HYPE, you now just have to look at it as a company. HYPE is now a financial infrastructure company, and you comp it to Robinhood. Robinhood makes more money. It has more income streams. HYPE has higher margins. It has more income streams, and I think it has higher growth potential right now because it has a lot more institutional backing.

For example, HYPE is never going to get the Trump Accounts. Trump Accounts are an amazing lock-in. You might see more wins from HOOD like that. I love HYPE still. I think it's a great asset. I've owned it. I haven't really sold much. I sold a little bit, but it is a great asset.

I just don't view it as something that will—it's not a 10-bagger for me anymore. Whereas I actually think HOOD could still be a 10-bagger. So I'm in HOOD until $1,000, unless I see HYPE come out, sign a deal with the CFTC, build an app that's competitive with Robinhood, and start to become more like an actual fintech. Then I think I would bet on HYPE more. I'd probably move more assets over to HYPE.

I'm not seeing that happening right now, so I'm waiting on HYPE. You guys comment way more when it's just me. What is it? Is it just easier to talk when it's just me, or are you guys scared of Jonah? I don't understand.

Any thoughts on trading via mobile?

Don't ever trade on your mobile app unless you really have to. I think that every trade that you take, you should have written down at least 2 to 3 paragraphs explaining why you're taking that trade. Trading on mobile is tough because it incentivizes quick behaviors. It incentivizes you to gamble a little bit more because it feels and looks and acts like a dopamine hit.

I try not to trade on mobile. I try not to make decisions on mobile. I trade on mobile if I have an idea and I need to execute it quickly and I'm not next to a computer. I'll still write down some notes, but I do think that trading on mobile can be psychologically dangerous for a lot of people.

You guys will probably make more money trading on desktop. In fact, most of you probably don't need to trade that much. Most of you can probably go buy uranium, Intel, SanDisk, Google, and trade SpaceX when it hits that target I was talking about. Sit in those things for the next 3 months and make more money than you would otherwise make trading.

This is not financial advice. Nothing here is financial advice, but my job as somebody who comes from the world of both traditional finance and crypto, was reasonably successful, and does this for a lot of fun because it is amazing, is to give you the frameworks to navigate effectively. My job is not necessarily to give you specific trades, but to help you think about how you might approach the market.

The way that I would suggest approaching the market is that right now we are at an inflection point. I really do agree with Andrew Kang on this. It is much better to trim around the edges when things look scary or overheated and just try to rebuild major positions in megatrend assets, but the core of it should be holding those megatrend assets for the next 3 to 5 years or diversifying out into things that you think could do well if you feel like you have an edge.

If you feel like you have an edge in collecting cars, I think that cars will probably outperform the stock market in the next 2 years. That would be my guess. I think that there are probably some cards that will outperform the stock market in the next few years. There are probably some Roman coins that will outperform the stock market in the next few years if you think that you're smart enough or have enough of an edge in that world. By all means, go ahead.

I don't really bet on sports at all, but I downloaded Kalshi. I bet for the first time—seriously bet for the first time—on Kalshi, and I did it at halftime of the Knicks game. I bet on the Knicks. That was the quickest thing I bet at 6% or 7%. It's the quickest return I've ever had in my entire life, and I can see how it was addicting.

I mean, I put in 100 bucks. I think I made 1,300. Not a lot of money, obviously, but I was shocked at how it triggered me from an emotional perspective. That was really fun. That was crazy. I really enjoyed that, and you kind of want to do it again, but you know that it's just entertainment.

What I would suggest is that you really try to figure out if you have an edge in your specific sector. This is why we're going to be doing a lot more guest interviews moving forward. I'm going to be helping you guys think through different sectors, bringing on experts in every sector so that you can help build the frameworks for yourself to generate edge in the areas where you want to generate edge.

That's your goal. Your goal is not to just listen to podcasts and tweets and ape things. Your goal is to get good at something. Really get good at something. How did I make my money? I got really good at trading crypto when I was 22 years old. I spent all my time on it. I turned 40 million into 1.5 billion at a hedge fund. I had an edge.

Now, I'm spending a lot more time on equities, spending a lot more time outside of crypto, trying to generate new edge. That's your job as a trader and an investor. You just constantly have to keep searching for edge.

What else? I think I have to hop here, but this was really fun. I guess live-streaming by myself isn't so bad. I guess I do have some things to say to you guys.

I did tell you guys I'd talk about that painting back there. My favorite song is “Iris” by the Goo Goo Dolls. I don't really care for their other stuff. That's the only song that I like. I've always liked it, and I got a painting of an iris signed by the lead singer of the Goo Goo Dolls. That's what that is. I think it's kind of fun, for those of you who were asking.

By the way, that wasn't a humble brag. I was just bragging. Sorry. Sometimes it takes hold of me, and you just have to spill it out.