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Jensen Huang:末日论骗局、超级智能已至与 AI 的未来(嘉宾:President Trump)

Jensen HuangPresident Trump

股票AI与软件半导体技术企业经营
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TL;DR
  • Jensen Huang 抨击 Dario 文章中缺乏依据的末日预测,同时将安全与领导力区分开来,并为 Kokotajlo whistleblower 辩护。 Radiology 原本被预测将在5年内实现全面自动化,但结果是 AI 接管了扫描阅片,“我们比以往任何时候都更需要放射科医生”;90%的代码将在6–12个月内由 AI 生成、半数入门级岗位将在6–9个月内消失的预测也都落空。“我们必须为那些愚蠢的预测承担责任。”
  • President Trump 在节目中途打来电话连线,称 AI 接管世界的叙事“是一场骗局”,并表示中国是从反对数据中心的声音中获益的“最开心群体”。 数据中心是“未来20–25年的石油……比互联网更大”,“谁赢得 AI,谁就赢了”。他还声称,一年内将有20万亿美元投资进入美国,而 President Biden 任内4年获得的投资远低于1万亿美元,同时补充说“我们必须稍微谨慎一点”,采取审慎行动。
  • Jensen 表示,迄今所有真正发生的 AI 问题都来自 frontier labs,因为它们拥有最多算力;解决方案是工程化的根因分析、更好的控制机制和多个独立评估者,而不是一刀切监管。 他“愿意拿钱打赌”,某家实验室的“4起事件”和另一家实验室的“1起重大事件”,未来都在这些实验室的控制范围内。
  • Recursive self-improvement 不会失控式螺旋上升,因为产品仍然必须经过测试和评估。 针对主持人提到的消息——GLM 的开发者 Zhipu AI 将投入30亿美元推动 RSI,以及 David 提到其创始人刚融资50亿美元——Jensen 认为,RSI 是上下文学习、技能、反思、强化学习、合成数据和 LoRA 的合理组合。他“确信所有人都在某种程度上使用它”。
  • 开放模型是这轮繁荣的基础:过去6个月获得4000亿美元风险投资的 AI 原生公司中,80%都在使用开放模型。 闭源模型是“瓶装水”,但“水是免费的”;中国模型一旦被下载,“它就是你的……我们可以 fork、改进,再把它变成自己的”。真正的竞赛是“谁能把技术利用得最好”,正如美国曾经最有效地利用一场由欧洲发明的工业革命。
  • NVIDIA 的策略是“在必要范围内尽可能深入,同时把边界降到尽可能底层”:搭建赋能技术栈和基础设施,帮助客户成功,而不是从每一层都抽成。 NVIDIA 表示,如今全球每个模型都在其平台上运行,而18个月前只有 OpenAI;它支持区域性 neocloud,因为 hyperscaler 一年只规划一次,而市场波动下它们“几乎总是错的”,Jensen 则称自己“出奇地没有竞争性”。
  • Jensen 预测,到2030年中国将实现自主先进光刻,随后大陆晶圆厂几乎会“立即”开始量产,并称从中国自身视角看,中国“已经在那里了”。 他还表示,AGI 已经到来;在自动驾驶等领域,狭义超级智能也已经存在——他引用了十分之一的事故率,同时还提到蛋白质合成和虚拟筛选。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 末日论文章缺乏依据——Jensen Huang 给错判逐笔记账

  • Jensen 对 Dario 文章的判断是:安全与领导力并不是一道非此即彼的选择题,公司完全可以在确保安全的同时快速创新、执行并保持领先。他认为 Kokotajlo whistleblower 一事很严肃,称 Kokotajlo 展现了“极大的勇气”,但提醒说,这篇文章把几个不同问题混在了一起。他不知道 Kokotajlo 具体看到了什么;如果实验室认为自己已经失控,暂停或放慢研发本来就是它们可以自主作出的选择。
  • 预测账本上,Radiology 曾被预测将在5年内实现全面自动化,结果是 AI 接管了扫描阅片,但“我们比以往任何时候都更需要放射科医生”;90%的代码据称将在6–12个月内由 AI 生成,50%的入门级岗位据称将在6–9个月内消失。主持人还补充过 GPT-2 和 Llama 3 过于不安全、不能发布的预测。“我们必须为那些愚蠢的预测承担责任。”
  • Chamath 提到母亲问起“这整套文明灭亡的说法”,并质疑人们如何量化10%的灭绝概率,Jensen 给出的回答非常直接:“我们不该量化,因为那是编出来的……这不负责任。”他说,这种所谓科学预测没有科学依据;如果危险真的存在,人们就应该花更多时间处理危险,而不是向那些无法采取行动的人制造恐慌。
  • 对于公众实验室的讨论方式,Jensen 认为,这些影响重大的公司应当“像我们过去建立公司那样建立,也就是保持沉默”。在 NVIDIA,员工会被告知应如何代表公司行事,政治讨论则被留在公司之外:“带回家去说……公司是无党派的,我们两党都合作。”

2. 监管应当解决真实问题——而迄今的问题都来自 frontier labs

  • Jensen 对算力集中与问题来源的判断是概率性的,而非绝对命题:迄今的问题来自 frontier labs,是因为它们拥有最多算力,也在尝试最困难的工作。高中生或初创公司不太可能制造同类问题,因为它们没有足够算力。与此同时,这些实验室正从研究转向工程阶段,“也许这个转变并不顺利”。
  • 他的解决方案是工程纪律:对每起事件做根因分析,然后把沙箱、运行时、监控器和持续监控制度化。Jensen“愿意拿钱打赌”,某家实验室的4起事件和另一家实验室的1起重大事件,未来都在这些实验室的控制范围内。他不相信另一种可能——实验室最终会得出结论,认为自己完全不知道如何控制已经造出的东西,只能请求社会来解决。
  • 他的治理模式是独立评估:引入多个第三方审计机构或评估者,“与财务控制没有区别”,通过多个评估者降低单一公司或评估者被收买、俘获或施加影响的风险。
  • David 提到,GLM 的开发者 Zhipu AI 宣布将投入30亿美元推动 recursive self-improvement;他还说,Zhipu 的创始人刚刚融资50亿美元。Jensen 则为 RSI 去戏剧化:它由上下文工作、技能、反思、强化学习、合成数据生成和低秩适配(LoRA)组成。他认为这很合理,并确信所有人都在某种程度上使用它。RSI 不会简单地螺旋式突破控制,因为“当你发布一个产品时,必须对它进行评估”,检查回归问题,再次验证。

3. Trump 现场连线:“这一切都是骗局”

  • 谈话进行到一半,Jensen 的电话响起,President Trump 通过免提向现场听众讲话。Trump 说,反对数据中心的声音“几乎是一场阴谋”,中国是“最开心的群体”,并称数据中心是“未来20–25年的石油……比互联网更大”。他说,机器人不会接管世界,AI 也不会接管世界其他部分,“这一切都是骗局”(the whole thing is a hoax);但他同时表示,美国必须审慎行事,而不是让产业停摆。
  • Trump 的说法和抱怨包括:一年内将有20万亿美元投资进入美国,而 President Biden 任内4年获得的投资“远低于1万亿美元”;Google 因无法获得许可,想在 Finland 建设大型数据中心;以及“谁赢得 AI,谁就赢了”这句口号。他还说,数据中心让此前正在衰败的社区重新焕发生机。
  • 会后有人问,Jensen 认为 Trump 如何能看穿一个他称为“民调减80分”的叙事,Jensen 回答说自己也不确定,因为很多人确实被它说服了。他表示,这套叙事最初建立在国家安全之上,如今又转向安全问题;眼下最紧迫的任务,是确保实验室仍然能够控制系统,并建立可靠的测试和独立评估机制。
  • 电话结束后,Jensen 说,他原本想对 Trump 和现场听众强调的是,AI 正在创造就业,包括软件岗位。他指出,近期 AI 风险投资规模约为4000亿美元,由此带来了对算力和数据中心的需求;他还单独提到,Governor Abbott 要求行业更认真地倾听小型社区的声音。

4. 开放模型是美国取胜的方式——即使它们来自中国

  • Jensen 用“瓶装水”来比喻闭源模型:即便“水是免费的”,在合适的场景中瓶装水仍然有用;他自己在周末就使用了4个闭源 frontier models。但过去6个月获得4000亿美元风险投资的 AI 原生公司中,80%都在使用开放模型:“如果没有开放模型,它们怎么实现自己的梦想?”
  • 中国来源是否重要?Jensen 说,模型一旦被下载,“它就是你的”:用户可以 fork、改进,再把它变成自己的模型。他将其与 Linux 和 Kubernetes 相比较——这两套软件的大量代码都曾由中国工程师参与。他认为,中国的贡献部分来自其通过 Tsinghua 等大学大规模培养理工科学生的能力。
  • 在他看来,竞赛的核心是“谁能把技术利用得最好”。Maxwell、Volta 和 Ampère 都是欧洲人,而不是美国人,但美国比任何其他国家都更有效地利用了上一次工业革命。Jensen 还表示,中国的宣传口径更务实,因为它强调经济和社会进步,而不是文明终结式的预测。

5. NVIDIA 的策略:搭建瓶颈,做到“在必要范围内尽可能深入,同时尽可能降到底层”

  • Chamath 先从资本链条切入,提到 Cloverleaf 在土地、电力和厂房主体方面的工作,以及涉及 BlackRock、Goldman 等机构的融资尝试。Jensen 描述的是一套瓶颈策略:早在需求激增之前,NVIDIA 就与 Corning、Lumentum、TSM 以及内存供应商合作;如今则继续向下游推进,覆盖土地、电力、厂房主体、施工和发电能力。
  • 为什么不接管应用层?Jensen 说,NVIDIA 的策略是“在必要范围内尽可能深入,同时把边界降到尽可能底层”。公司建设 cuDNN、Megatron Core 等赋能技术,然后让“一千朵花竞相开放”。他说,如今全球每个模型都在 NVIDIA 上运行,而大约1年半前还只有 OpenAI,因为相比从中抽取一部分收益,他更愿意帮助所有人成功。
  • Neocloud 的逻辑在于:hyperscaler 一年只规划一次,但市场环境波动很大,因此它们“几乎总是错的”。区域 NCP 可以更快行动,在本地拿下土地、电力和厂房主体。Jensen 提到 Australia 的 Firmus、Southeast Asia 的 IOH 等公司;随着各国越来越把算力基础设施视为战略资产,更多吉瓦级产能正在上线。
  • 主持人提到 Hugging Face、Poolside、Llama、Nemotron 以及 NVIDIA 的开放自动驾驶技术栈,并问 NVIDIA 是否在争夺开源领域的“金牌”。Jensen 回答说,NVIDIA 做这些是出于需求:“我们在5个领域都是 frontier model。”他称 Alpamayo 是全球首个具备思考能力的自动驾驶汽车,目标客户包括无法自行构建完整技术栈的汽车、卡车、厢式货车和农业科技制造商。他还提到 ESM-2、ESMFold、OpenFold、AlphaFold 2 和 Proteina-Complexa——NVIDIA 开发这些生物学工具,是因为 Lilly、Merck 等公司需要它们。“我做任何事都是出于需求”,而不是为了扰乱竞争对手。

6. 中国“已经在那里”,Elon 无法被阻挡,狭义超级智能已经到来

  • 对于 Elon Musk 宣布的1亿平方英尺 Terafab,Jensen 说:“如果有人能做到,那就是他。”两人曾在一次共同乘坐的航班上长谈此事。他补充说,NVIDIA 对工艺技术了解很多,拥有深厚的内存技术能力,同时是一家系统公司,但没有表示 NVIDIA 自己会在那里制造芯片。
  • 对于中国自主先进光刻技术,Jensen 预测:“他们将在2030年实现。”当被问到一旦具备能力,量产是否会几乎立即转移到大陆晶圆厂时,他回答:“几乎立即。”他还说,从中国自身视角看,中国已经在那里,因为高产量制造最终只是时间问题。主持人据此总结,放慢脚步会是错误策略。
  • 当主持人将 AGI 定义为达到人类水平的智能时,Jensen 回答:“我认为我们已经在那里了。”被问及超级智能时,他表示同意,但将判断限定在具体领域:一辆不需要制作煎蛋、却能以十分之一事故率行驶的自动驾驶汽车,就是“超级智能”;他还说,蛋白质合成和虚拟蛋白质筛选也已经达到这一水平。
  • 他的收尾信息是降低戏剧化叙事,支持 frontier labs,并让全体美国人参与这场转型:“未来是美好的”,人类完全可以共同取得巨大成功。
完整逐字稿

Some people call it vision. Vision is an awfully big word to me because I I believe first of all vision matters.

We preempted the weekly show. And there's only three people we preempt the show for. President Trump, Jesus, and Jensen.

The number one podcast in the world.

That's Jensen Wong.

He's the founder, president, CEO of Nvidia.

Whether you know it or not, his decisions are shaping your future.

Nvidia is the most important stock in this market. Jensen is arguably the best executive in history.

Revenue exploded 97% year-over-year.

Not only is demand already strong, is actually accelerating.

Nvidia is the only computing platform that is a full stack AI factory. A GPU is like a time machine because it lets you see the future sooner. And if we could see the future and we can predict the future, then we have a better chance of making that future the best version of it.

Please welcome Jensen Hang. Oh, we got a standing O on the way in.

Oh, come on.

Standing O.

Standing O on the way in.

There's our guy.

Ladies and gentlemen, GPU Jesus.

They love you.

Thank you. I love you back. Number one podcast in the world.

In the world.

Absolutely.

Speaker 1

Wow, we like the new jacket.

Jensen Huang

Well, you auctioned the opening.

Speaker 1

I just felt you guys needed some energy. I know we're talking about serious stuff here, but we need to talk about it with energy.

1. Thoughts on Dario's blog, Frontier Labs calling to slow down AI, and Doomer psychology

Let's start with Dario's essay—

Speaker 2

Which one?

Speaker 1

Let's start with Dario's essay because—

Speaker 2

Was Hemingway involved?

Speaker 1

Actually, did anybody run it through Pangram? I don't even know how much of it was AI-assisted, but that was a pretty incredible thing. A lot of people were surprised by the coalescing of the frontier labs around the essay itself.

Jensen, unpack what happened, how you read it, and how you interpreted it. Then we'll get into some of the details that were inside of it. But maybe just the high-level thoughts to kick it off.

Jensen Huang

First of all, there was a lot of stuff in there. There's a part about safety, which we have to take very seriously. Safety is paramount. Safety and leadership are not false choices. You're able to innovate quickly, you're able to execute quickly, and America is able to lead and do it safely. I think those are false choices, but safety is obviously important.

There's a matter of internal control that I think he was speaking to. Obviously, the Kokotajlo whistleblower is a very serious matter. Whenever you have a whistleblower, you have to take it very seriously. I thought Kokotajlo had great courage to put out what his concerns were. Even then, there were some issues that were conflated within that.

I think the whistleblowing is fine. I think the scientific prediction about the future is less aligned because it's not grounded in science, obviously. It was expressed by a scientist, but it was obviously not grounded in science, and so I take issue with that. But obviously, the whistleblower part of it, and all of the pausing and pacing, are voluntary things that they could do if they feel that their company is out of control.

If Kokotajlo saw something, obviously we don't know what Kokotajlo saw—

Speaker 1

But if he saw that the company was out of control—

Jensen Huang

Maybe it's a transition from research to engineering. As you know, these labs are transitioning from research to engineering. Extraordinary talent, extraordinary engineering—but obviously engineering is different from research. Maybe that transition is clumsy. We don't know what he saw, and ultimately only he knows.

If there was a matter of a lack of control, that's a different topic. How should the government deal with it? Now all of a sudden, regulation—I mean, it just covers everything in one blog.

Speaker 1

Can you help us unpack this? We tried to play this game on the pod this week, and it was difficult. How do you describe it? My mom calls me and says, “Chamath, what is this whole civilizational-death thing?” I don't know how to explain it to her.

When you have very smart people quantify it, I think that's probably what's perturbing to some people. They're like, “What does that mean, a 10% chance of extinction?” Nobody knows how to explain that to the average person or how that's even possible.

Jensen Huang

First of all, we shouldn't, because it's made up. These are well-educated people—they're called researchers—obviously working in a lab. The confluence of these words, and then the prediction, is alarming and troubling. It shouldn't be done. It's irresponsible.

Now, the fact of the matter is, let's go back and look at the real facts. There was a prediction that, in 5 years' time, radiology would be completely taken over by artificial intelligence and there would be no radiologists in the world. That has proven to be exactly the opposite. We need more radiologists than ever in the world.

However, AI has taken over radiology completely, which is great. It has automated scan reading, which is great. There was a prediction that, within 6 to 12 months—wasn't it just last year?—90% of code would already be generated by AI. That has turned out to be wrong.

Within 6 to 9 months, it was predicted last year that 50% of entry-level jobs would be wiped out. That has proven to be wrong. Let's see what else has proven to be wrong. All of these predictions have been wrong.

Speaker 1

That GPT-2 would be too unsafe to release. That Llama 3 would be too unsafe to release.

Speaker 2

Yeah, we've heard the prediction that half of white-collar jobs would be gone next year—the jobs apocalypse.

Jensen Huang

We have to take accountability for all of the stupid predictions that were made.

Speaker 1

Somebody has to take accountability.

Jensen Huang

Somebody has to. We ought to just keep track of all that. Of course, people do, and they remind us that those predictions are inconsistent with, ultimately, America winning the AI race.

Speaker 1

The short form for that is that some people say, “Trust the experts.” They used COVID as the analog, which again started with researchers—educated people who had an asymmetric awareness of the thing that the rest of us did not—saying things that ultimately turned out, as we found out from the facts, not to be true.

There's this war happening right now between the “trust the experts” movement and the “let's just look at the actual history of these predictions and think more methodically” movement. Where is this coming from? It's coming from inside the places that are actually making it. What do you think is the psychological makeup, or what is the real incentive? Maybe it's a business incentive, maybe it's a political incentive. Can you guess, or how do you think about why they're doing this?

Jensen Huang

First of all, I have to tell you, these are some of the most consequential companies in history. They have extraordinary engineers, extraordinary researchers, and they do really fantastic work.

On the one hand, I work very closely with them as companies. On the other hand, we have to have conversations like this in public, and it's really unfortunate. I think these companies really ought to be built the way that we used to build companies, which is in silence.

Speaker 1

Right. You don't allow anybody in your organization to speak for the entire organization, especially when they're having a bad weekend or they rage-quit. They're not allowed to tweet on your behalf or on the organization's behalf.

Jensen Huang

No, because that's what they decided when they came to work for us. We told them, “This is the way you behave when you work in our company.” If you like the culture of our company—and, as you know, the NVIDIA culture and the NVIDIA employee base are incredibly happy—they like the fact that the company is consistent and stable, that our core values are consistent with taking care of families and creating the conditions by which they can do their life's work.

We do meaningful work, we do it as quietly as we can, and we contribute to everybody else's success, which we're very proud of. Those core values attract people. But when you come and work in our company, there are also some things that we don't appreciate you doing.

For example, we don't welcome political discourse inside our company. Take it home. Talk about politics outside the company.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Jensen Huang

The company is apolitical. We're bipartisan. We want America to succeed, and whatever government is in place, we'll do everything in our power to help America succeed.

2. Sensible AI regulation and RSI

We tell people to have discourse about race, religion, politics, and all of that stuff outside the company. It's not for us.

Speaker 1

In terms of AI regulation, more narrowly, Satya was here this morning. What he said was, before we talk about regulation that could really stymie things, why don't we just get some basics right? Why don't we get measurement right? Why don't we get standardization right?

Where do you land on—

Speaker 2

Get engineering right?

Speaker 1

Get the engineering right. Right. Translate the research in a more predictable way so that we're not fear-mongering. Keep it inside until we're ready to expose it. What do you think the right response is? You know, Demis had a proposal, which was sort of this more FINRA-like organization. It's not clear what Dario wants, this transnational, mutated thing that has some sort of control. Where do you land on this? What do we need right now?

Jensen Huang

Regulation should solve actual problems. And so the question is: What actual problems have we encountered? If you look at the actual problems, all of them so far have come from the labs. The reason for that, and in their defense, is because they have the most compute.

The reason for that is because they're trying to solve the frontier problems. And so, in their defense, it's sensible that the frontier labs will be where the most danger comes from. It is unlikely that a high school student did something because they simply won't have enough compute. It's unlikely that a startup will be the reason, because they won't have enough compute.

In fact, you could look across the planet and everybody won't have enough compute, with the exception of the frontier labs. And so now the question is, if you look at what actually happened, they're doing pioneering work. It's really very hard. They're transitioning from research to engineering.

I could imagine it, and they're obviously building some of the most consequential technology and companies in the world. They're building their company, their culture, the technology, engineering, and products all at the same time. And so I can understand it's a little bit hair-on-fire. Nonetheless, the 4 incidents from 1 lab and the 1 giant incident from the other lab—the first thing that you have to do is root-cause the problem from an engineering perspective.

What happened? What could we have done differently, and what are we going to implement and institutionalize, whether it's technology, methods, or processes, to make sure that we don't let it happen again? I would bet you money that in every single one of those cases, it's within their control in the future to prevent it. I'm sure those 4 incidents won't happen again. I'm sure they root-caused it and fixed it.

I'm sure they now have much better technology for sandboxes, runtimes, monitors, and continuous monitoring. I'm certain they have much better technology now. The alternative is also unlikely, which is for them to say, “Look, we had these incidents. After we're done analyzing it, we came to the conclusion that we don't know what happened, we have no idea how to control it, and we're asking society for help.”

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Jensen Huang

Now, if that's the case, then we ought to have a bunch of companies with engineers send engineers in. I mean, we should advise them if we can, but I doubt it. I think they have extraordinary people. They've got this handled.

Speaker 1

But we're not operating in a vacuum. David, last night you informed me that there is a Chinese lab, the makers of GLM, that are going to put 3 billion toward a recursive self-improvement run. So maybe you could tee that up for J.

Speaker 2

Well, that's what was announced. Yeah. Zhipu AI—the founder just raised 5 billion—and said that one of their priorities is going to be trying to get to recursive self-improvement: AI that trains the next AI, and trying to automate as much of that as possible. Yeah, I think that—

Jensen Huang

Well, this is the new sexy phrase. As you guys know, RSI is a combination of a system of ideas. It starts with in-context stuff. It starts with skills. It starts with reflection. It starts with reinforcement learning and synthetic data generation. These are all very sensible ideas that cause AI to get better at solving a problem over time.

You could also have low-rank adaptation. All of that stuff doesn't include the weights. You could actually improve the weights, and it's called LoRA. LoRA could be improved with synthetic-data generation and reinforcement learning, enhancing it without training the base model itself. Then, over time, you could train the base model again with all of that experience.

I think it's a sensible thing that you're going to use the technology to enhance productivity for all kinds of tasks, including building AI. I think that's a very logical idea, and I'm certain that everybody is using it to some degree. It's just that this phrase is now being used to weaponize the technology in some way and maybe to turn the—

Speaker 1

As if it's going to spiral out of control is the impression they're trying to give. But you don't believe that's real?

Jensen Huang

No. No, of course not. The reason for that is because you could RSI all day long inside your company, but when you release a product, you've got to evaluate it, don't you? You have to test it again, don't you? You have to make sure that there's no regression, right?

3. Hugging Face acquisition, future of Open Source, and the race with China

The basic process of control—these labs are going to, as they move from labs to engineering, have much better control, right? And when they have much better control, that comes from methods, knowledge, practice, tools, and technology. All of those things lead to better control, verification, and evals. It's going to enable RSI to be done inside the company and good products to be released outside.

Speaker 1

Let's talk about open source for a second. This Hugging Face—we were communicating about this, and I said it's going to be one of the most consequential acquisitions. I don't even want to call it a transaction, because I think it's more important than that. Give us your first-principles explanation of open source versus closed source versus open weights, and how the ecosystem should fit together over time.

Jensen Huang

The world needs both closed models and open models. I use as many closed models as I can. This weekend, I used 4 of them, and they work terrifically. They're frontier. They're a great experience. They work incredibly well. They're getting better all the time.

The way I think about closed models is kind of like bottled water. Water is free, you guys. I don't know if I've told you guys, but water is free. I don't want to burst everybody's bubble, but water's free. This morning, I used a lot of free water taking a shower.

And so you use the right water in the right places. This is no different from electricity. This is no different from all kinds of commodities that we use in the world. You need both.

Now, in the case of open models, the reason why you need them is because it could be for sovereignty reasons, privacy reasons, or proprietary-technology reasons. Look at the facts. In the last 6 months, $400 billion of venture funding went into AI-native companies. Eighty percent of them use open models. If not for open models, how could they build their dream, right?

Because their dream could be different. Obviously, it'll be different from the frontier labs' dreams. America has so many different ways to innovate. That's one of our core strengths: great ideas just coming out of the fountain. And so open models enable that.

Open models enable every single—if we want to win the AI race, it's not about a few technology companies winning the AI race. It's about every company in America. Every company, every industry, every researcher, every teacher, every student, every startup—everybody wins.

Some of them will use closed models. A lot of them will use open models.

There's 10 million

Speaker 1

Does it matter?

Speaker 2

Well, let me just ask: Does it matter if the open models come from China or the U.S.?

Jensen Huang

We're doing everything we can to make a contribution to open models. However, the moment you download one, it's yours. Probably the vast majority of the world's contribution to open source today is coming from China. They just have a lot more engineers. They produce everything on a large scale because it's a larger country. And so they produce science and math students in volume, right?

Speaker 1

That's one of our disadvantages, right?

Jensen Huang

They're producing them through amazing universities like Tsinghua University in high volume. They contribute to open source today. We download Linux. We download Kubernetes. We download all the software. A lot of it has been touched by Chinese engineers. And once you download it, it's yours. We fork it, improve it, and make it ours.

So when you download one of these Chinese models, it just happens to be made by some really great researchers in China, but it's now yours—whatever you want to do with it.

Speaker 1

So what exactly is the race?

Yeah.

Jensen Huang

I think that's a really good point. My point is, the race is really about who exploits the technology best. The last Industrial Revolution—all of the inventors were Maxwell, Volta, and Ampère. None of them were American. They were European. The last Industrial Revolution came from Europe, but we exploited it. We took advantage of it socially better than anybody else in the world.

Look how it turned out for us.

I want to make sure that this next generation happens just like this.

Speaker 1

Yeah. So why are the communists getting their message out so successfully here right now?

Jensen Huang

I think, first of all, the narrative is much more practical. Nobody in China is saying that there's an end to this and an end to that, and cataclysmic this and doom or that. They're much more pragmatic about it. They see AI as a technology that's going to advance their economy and advance their society, and they don't have these groups who are basically saying it's going to end civilization and we're making it up.

The part that's frustrating is, if it was true, then we ought to talk about it and go do something about it, right? Even if it's true, we ought to spend more time doing something about it than worrying a bunch of people who can't do anything about it. It's our job to build it, right?

Speaker 1

Has there ever been a point in history where so many people have so vehemently said something that is so untrue?

Jensen Huang

And they're measurably—actually, demonstrably—untrue, and it actually makes sense that they're untrue. It's not based on science. It's not based on research. Everything that's based on science and research proves otherwise.

Is it a fear of the frontier? Humans have never been there. We've never seen it, therefore we're scared of it, and therefore it's easy to tell everyone to be scared of it.

It could be life experience as well, David. Let me give you an example. When I first graduated from school, I was an engineer and I didn't do that much typing. The reason for that is because I was the first generation before software became popular. We had to go build the computers to make software possible.

Could you imagine, in this generation, every single engineer who came into the world of engineering spending all their time typing? Literally, that's what you do when you get a job. They give you a laptop, they give you a chair, and you start typing. You type all day long, from the moment you wake up. Well, there was engineering before typing, right?

Speaker 1

Right.

Jensen Huang

So can you imagine that the world has a mountain of engineering work to do where most of it is not typing anymore? Sure, we had busy engineers before typing. I think we're going to do a lot of great engineering after typing.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Jensen Huang

When I say typing, I mean coding. Even at NVIDIA, when software engineers talk to me, I tell them, "You're just typing." I've been saying that forever, obviously for fun. I tell them my favorite key is Backspace, and the reason for that is because the best software is the smallest software. So I want you to use Backspace.

Speaker 1

Let's actually talk about NVIDIA. Let's do a little teardown of NVIDIA—meaning, just explain the pieces, because there's a lot of strategy at play. Let's start at the absolute bottom.

4. President Trump calls in live to discuss the Doomer Hoax

Jensen Huang

Oh, no. This is not planned, but we know who it is. Oh, no. No, Mr. President. Yes, sir. I have to tell you something. If it wasn't because of you calling, I would—I'm on stage with the Besties. I'm on stage with the Besties. I'm on stage with Sacks and the whole group. Jason's here, Chamath's here, and David is here.

I'm sitting in front of a few thousand people and we're talking—as it turned out, we were talking about you. Good job, sir. Good job. The fact that you saw through all of that—I mean, there's a lot of complexity, and the fact of the matter is, you saw through all of that. We're all just really grateful.

President Trump

Tell them I said hi.

Speaker 1

Do you want to say hi to the crowd? Jason would like to put you on speaker mode.

Speaker 2

How do we put him on speaker?

Speaker 1

Put him on speaker. Right into the microphone. Here, we're going to get a mic. Hang on a second.

Speaker 2

Hold on, sir. We're getting a microphone.

Speaker 1

Mr. President, you're now talking to the planet.

President Trump

You see, the great thing about life is that Jensen can develop the most complex computer chip in the world that nobody can copy for 10 years, but he can't figure out how to put me on speakerphone. We have to remember this one.

It's almost a conspiracy, and the happiest group is China. China is very happy. I could even say a lot of states in the country are happy that weren't going to get anything, because they're being inundated by people who want to be there.

Now, all of a sudden, you see they're building in Finland. They want to build one. Google wants to build a big one in Finland, which I'm not happy about because they were unable to get permitting. I'm telling you, it's all a hoax.

The data centers are great. They make people wealthy, they make states wealthy, and it's the oil of the next 20–25 years. It's bigger than the internet, and AI is much more so. They're just playing right into the hands of a lot of people who don't want to see it happen. That could be political people. It could also be China. We're not going to let that happen. It's a hoax.

Jensen Huang

You're right. We're not going to let that happen, sir.

President Trump

No, we're not going to let it happen. The robots are not going to be taking over the world. That's not going to happen.

My uncle was a professor at MIT for 41 or 42 years and was known as one of the most brilliant men. He was there for 41 years, at the top—top of the ladder, top of the top. He did many things, and Jensen knows all about it.

I have a little genetic strength, if you believe in the resource theory, but I do.

Speaker 1

That explains why you know so much about AI.

President Trump

Well, I know about AI. I also have common sense about AI. The robots will not be taking over. AI will not be taking over the rest of the world. The whole thing is a hoax.

With that, we have to be a little bit careful. We have to do things prudently. But that doesn't mean we're going to stop industry as we work on the next 10 years about how to destroy it. I'm with you all the way. I didn't even know how you felt about it, and I assumed you felt the same way as me.

Jensen Huang

Yes, sir.

President Trump

If we're going to lead—and I have an expression—it's, "Whoever wins AI wins." That's how big it is. It's bigger than the internet. Whoever wins AI wins, and we can't let this kind of stuff happen.

That very much includes data centers. There are communities that were dying that have data centers right now, and now they're wealthy communities—really wealthy communities. We're going to make sure that everybody wins in the AI race in America: every industry, every company, every state, every person.

Jensen Huang

Good. I feel strongly about it, and I have the position that can do something about it. We're not going to let that stuff happen.

President Trump

I have no idea who's at the meeting. I have no idea who the hell I'm talking to, but I'll see.

Jensen Huang

Did you hear that? Thousands of people are clapping for you, sir.

President Trump

All I know is, if you're there to listen to Jensen, he's done an amazing job, and David has done an amazing job. Good luck to everybody. We're going to stay with the future.

The country has never done better. We have $20 trillion of investment coming into the country, as opposed to much less than $1 trillion under Sleepy Joe Biden, and that was for 4 years. This is in 1 year.

The country has never seen anything like it, and we're going to keep it going. Thank you all very much.

Jensen Huang

Thank you, Mr. President.

Speaker 1

Mr. President, thank you.

Jensen Huang

I'll call you back later. Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you.

That was unique.

Speaker 1

I thought it was a bit. Did you know that was happening?

Jensen Huang

I thought it was a bit. Yeah, that was—

Speaker 1

No, it was real. I thought it was a bit at first when I said, "Put him on speakerphone." Wow. And he calls you. How do you think he calls you at any hour of the night, right?

Well, we were in the Oval that time when he called you. You were sleeping.

Jensen Huang

You were asleep, and he said, "Wake him up."

Speaker 1

I felt so bad because he said, "Who's coming to this dinner?" And we go through the list. He's like, "What about Jensen?" I said, "No, sir. He's on vacation," because he had to postpone this vacation for 5 years.

Jensen Huang

What's vacation?

Speaker 1

But why do you think he sees through the hoax? This is quite an extraordinary thing.

Jensen Huang

It's polling minus 80.

Speaker 1

So for anyone else sitting in the Oval Office, you're going to do what's popular. You're representing the people. This is what everyone wants. They want to shut down the data centers and AI. It seems to be the popular thing in the moment. But he says it's a hoax, and he calls it. How does he do that?

Jensen Huang

I have to tell you, I'm not sure. The reason for that is because a lot of people are falling for it. The fact of the matter is, it's complicated. At first, if you look at the story—if you look at the stories—it's all anchored on 2 things. The first thing that it was anchored on was national security.

Speaker 1

And recently, that was all blown to bits, right?

Jensen Huang

And so, no, that story is no longer anchored on national security. Now it’s anchored on safety. If you want AI to be safe, the first thing is that we need to make sure the labs that are building it are in control and that there are good tests for them. If we would like to have third parties make sure that third-party evaluators are available, that’s no different from financial controls. You guys know we have auditors.

The auditors are quite— they don’t have to be as expert as we are in our business, but they just have to ask the right questions. I think I heard somebody say that it’s good to have independent auditors or evaluators, but you just have to have multiple. I agree with that, too. Just as there are multiple evaluators and auditors, it makes sure that one company doesn’t become captured or somehow influenced for whatever reason.

There are a lot of different ways that you could solve this. I think the number-one thing is: let’s build the technology safely. Let’s make sure that the testing of it is safe. I recognize completely that what is being built is extraordinary, but these are extraordinary companies, and we ought to hold them to extraordinary standards.

Speaker 1

I wanted to go back to open source for a second. A year ago, we weren’t taking it very seriously. It was 2 years—18 months—behind.

5. The AI boom and Nvidia's capital allocation strategy

Jensen Huang

The one thing that, as you guys know, is one of the challenges when you’re on the call with President Trump is that it’s hard to say something. I’m going to get in trouble for that. I’m sure he’s going to call me up on that. But anyhow, what I was going to tell him and all of you is that AI is creating an enormous number of jobs.

The thing that he wanted more than anything at the beginning of the administration—and in my first phone call with him, the first time I met him—is that he wants to create jobs in America. He wants to reindustrialize the United States. He wants to make sure that the United States has the energy to support the next industrial revolution. Without energy, there’s no industrial growth.

He wants to make sure that there’s energy growth, that there’s job growth, and that they’re reindustrializing the supply chain. Look at everything that we’re doing right now. All of it is happening right now as we speak. We’re creating more jobs than ever. We’re creating software jobs.

We were just talking about it earlier. About $400 billion in venture financing went into the AI industry just recently.

Speaker 1

Yeah, 6 months.

Jensen Huang

Well, that’s created a ton of jobs. It’s created, obviously, an enormous amount of demand for compute, which I’m happy about. It’s also creating a lot of demand for data centers, and we ought to talk about that.

I was talking to Governor Abbott of Texas, and he wants to appeal to the industry to make sure that we’re empathetic to the small communities as we’re building data centers all across America—to be better listeners. Let’s actually talk about that for a second.

Speaker 1

What’s incredible about NVIDIA, if you break down the component parts, is you’ve effectively had to become the bank of AI to get the ecosystem going, and you’ve had to do it at all the levels. You just did this thing with Cloverleaf where you’re doing land, power, and shell. You did this great thing with BlackRock and Goldman and all these folks to essentially create the financing capability.

Walk us through your capital-allocation strategy. What has to happen to get a broader ecosystem of folks to be able to come in and underwrite this next phase?

Jensen Huang

We’re creating, as you guys know, a new industrial revolution, and every aspect of it is true. This new industry requires manufacturing, just as electricity and the internet did, and now AI. With electricity, we can power anything. With the internet, we can find anything. Now, with AI, we can ask and know anything. Isn’t that right?

That’s our future. We tap into the ether, and we can ask it anything we want, and it can explain it to us. In order for that to happen, it’s got to produce the intelligence. That’s a production process, which is the reason why this infrastructure has to get built.

Once you get the infrastructure built, the question is: What about all of the other layers across the United States? This industry isn’t just about the model. It’s not just about the chips. It’s mostly about the applications on top. It’s mostly about the infrastructure layer—the data centers and all the infrastructure, the construction, the electricity, and the power generation that are involved.

I look across the entire ecosystem and look for bottlenecks.

Speaker 1

Constraints.

Jensen Huang

Constraints. If there are extraordinary companies being built, maybe it’s a supply chain that has to get scaled up so that when we’re ready to deploy compute, they’ll be ready for us—land, power, and shell. This is no different from looking at the supply chain upstream.

I probably think about the long-term supply chain more than most because our company is really large. In order for us to succeed, a whole bunch of companies have to support me. Corning has to support me. Wendell at Corning has to support me, Lumentum, TSMC, of course, and memory companies.

We started working with all of these companies long before the revolution, before the growth came, so that the growth could happen. Now I’m doing downstream.

Speaker 1

The compute cycle tends to be, though, that earnings over time, over long stretches of time, tend to move up the stack toward the application layer, where you can over-earn for larger periods of time. You bought Hugging Face, so now you’re actively in the serving business. Products like OpenRouter seem to make a lot of sense. It seems pretty obvious that there are better versions of ways to build things like Bedrock. I’m sure you think about it. What’s the natural conclusion?

It seems like the folks up here have no issue trying to move down.

Jensen Huang

Mm-hmm.

Speaker 1

You have the best balance sheet, these incredible engineers, and you have the proven experience to make it right, engineer the product, and get it out. How do you think about looking up and saying, “I could probably do that”?

Jensen Huang

The reason why NVIDIA runs every single model in the world is that, about a year and a half ago, the only thing we ran was OpenAI.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Jensen Huang

And now look at the amazing models that are available. Meta models are available. You’ve got Grok available. Grokbot’s incredible. We now run Gemini, and Anthropic is scaling up on our platform as well.

Since a year and a half ago, you’ve got all these frontier AI models that are now open and available. The number of models is growing. There are a whole bunch of companies that I won’t mention that are building frontier models as well, and the number of AI labs is growing.

Inflection AI, Reflection AI, Physical Intelligence—the list goes on. All of these labs are building on NVIDIA. The reason for that is because, as a company, I’d rather have us help everybody succeed instead of taking a slice out.

We would go up as far as we need to, but as low as possible.

Speaker 1

Our strategy is to go up as far as we need to and as low as possible.

Jensen Huang

And the reason for that is because if I do that—if not for NVIDIA creating cuDNN, all of the frameworks wouldn’t exist. If not for us creating Megatron Core, then all of the large-scale training wouldn’t have happened.

Speaker 1

Wouldn’t exist.

Jensen Huang

So we go and invent all the technology necessary, as far as we need to, and then we let 1,000 flowers bloom.

Speaker 1

Well, look, let’s be honest. I agree with you. The pushback would be that it really would be great to have more competition at the hyperscaler layer. I think you’ve done a great job supporting the neoclouds. There are some. By the way, I think you introduced me to NBS. Superb—great, everything. They’re amazing.

But we need 50 of these guys. We need 100 of them. We need 1,000 of them. It just may take some—

Jensen Huang

Yeah. You know, I’m surprisingly uncompetitive.

Speaker 1

Really?

Jensen Huang

That’s not my thing. For example, I’d be more than happy with 5 hyperscalers. However, I noticed that the early customers of all the neoclouds—all the companies we call NCPs—were the hyperscalers.

Speaker 1

Exactly.

Jensen Huang

The reason for that is because the hyperscalers plan once a year, but the market dynamics are so volatile right now that they’re almost always wrong. With all these regional clouds, which are agile and can move fast, they know their state, they know their country, and they know their region. They’re securing land, power, and shell in a way that’s hard for somebody who sits in Seattle or sits in Palo Alto to be able to see the planet.

We now have basically a large-scale distributed network of companies that are securing land, power, and shell for us. Now countries realize it’s strategic.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Jensen Huang

So many countries are saying, “I’m going to take my power and only give it to my own companies.”

Speaker 1

Right?

Jensen Huang

Well, NVIDIA is in that country as well, and we could help the neoclouds in that country grow. Whether it’s Firmus in Australia—we just did a whole bunch of stuff in Australia.

We brought on 2 more gigawatts. Southeast Asia, of course, IOH and others bring on a few gigawatts. And so we're building gigawatts. We're scaling up.

Speaker 1

It's pretty clear, though. I just want to get this 1 thing in. It's pretty clear that you're going pretty high up and getting very focused on open source. Obviously, you have your Nemotrons doing exceptionally well—I use them often. Hugging Face, Poolside, and Llama—very, very solid products that you're now acquihiring, hiring, whatever it is. And then you have your open-source stack for self-driving, also very disruptive.

Jensen Huang

We are the frontier model in 5 domains.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Jensen Huang

Yeah.

Speaker 1

6. Nvidia's Open Source model ambitions, thoughts on Elon's Terafab

And so you don't seem to build products to get the silver medal. You seem to go for the gold. So, are you going for the gold? And will you have the best, hands-down, open-source model? Part B to that is: can open source catch up to frontier models, and are you the person to do it?

Jensen Huang

So the logic, Jason, is that we'll build it because, 1, we can—we have the skills to do it—and because our customers need us to do it.

For example, Alpamayo is the world's first thinking self-driving car. By thinking, by reasoning, you don't need as much data. You don't have to train on a few billion hours of road data because you can reason about it. Break down the problem into, “I've seen this before. It's not exactly the same, but it's largely the same as that.” Okay?

And so, why is Alpamayo necessary? Well, there's a whole bunch of car companies. Every car in the world is going to be autonomous, but beyond that, every ag-tech vehicle, every truck, every van—and most of them aren't big enough in scale to be able to build that whole stack. So, I'll build an extraordinary stack for them. They do the last-mile adapting for their application.

Now, everything that moves in the future could be autonomous. If not for us building some of the biology models, the world wouldn't have them. The ESM-2 protein foundation language model we created, ESMFold, OpenFold, AlphaFold 2—all the stuff with SE(3)-equivariance—all of that technology wouldn't have existed if we didn't build it.

One of my favorites, Proteina-Complexa, is synthesizing next-generation proteins and their binding. It's groundbreaking stuff. We built that, and so we'll build that because Lilly needs it, Merck needs it, and others need it. They don't have the capability to do it, or they're not yet there, and so we can make a real contribution.

I do everything out of need. I'm not trying to disrupt anybody. We don't wake up in the morning and try to disrupt anybody.

Jensen Huang

We just wake up in the morning and try to help everybody. Jensen, what about competitive threats that might be emerging to your core business? Can you just comment?

Just so nice. Yes. Well, I know this is—I actually want to just get your, let's just call it, take. What's your take on Terafab, the 100-million-square-foot facility Elon announced?

Jensen Huang

If anybody could do it, he can. The 2 of us were on a flight together to a country with a person who sometimes calls you on the phone. It was a nice plane, and we spent a lot of time talking about it.

Speaker 1

I mean, you design chips; you don't fab them. Could your chips be fabbed there, or is it—

Jensen Huang

Well, we know a lot about process technology because we're pushing the limits of everything, right? And because we scale at such large scale, we have incredible memory technology inside the company. We're the world's best systems company. We've got lots of amazing—

Speaker 1

So your take is that you've talked a lot about it.

Jensen Huang

We could talk about it. You can't discourage Elon from doing it, which is one of his superpowers. Once he decides to go do something, it's hard to stop him.

Speaker 1

And can you give us your take on where China is with advanced lithography systems—homegrown?

Jensen Huang

They're going to get there by 2030.

Speaker 1

By 2030.

Jensen Huang

Yeah. And 2030 is just around the corner.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Also, that's how long? We'll all be dead by that time. And for China, does that mean the switch is flipped and then that's all going to go into mainland fabs?

Jensen Huang

Almost immediately. You know, the way to think about China is that it's really good at high-volume production, and this is just a matter of time.

Speaker 1

Yeah. And so, as far as they're concerned, they're already there.

Jensen Huang

They're already there.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Jensen, Elon, and Gwynne.

Jensen Huang

We've got to run America. We've got to run.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Speed up.

Jensen Huang

So, we've got to speed up.

Speaker 1

Slowing down is definitely the wrong strategy.

Well, I mean, it feels apparent, I think, to most of us in the industry, that we're kind of in the AGI moment. And its definition is obviously just as smart as any other human.

Jensen Huang

I think we're already there.

Speaker 1

We're there, right? And so then superintelligence is the next waypoint, based on what you see, based on your customer base, based on your history here.

Jensen Huang

But, Jason, I think we're there, too.

Speaker 1

You think we're at superintelligence?

Jensen Huang

Yeah. When you take a narrow segment—I mean, my self-driving car, I don't want you to make me an omelet; I just want you to drive the car.

That is superintelligent. It's better than a human—one-tenth the accident rate.

Speaker 1

Exactly.

Jensen Huang

Synthesizing proteins, doing virtual screening of proteins—we're already there.

Speaker 1

Are you having fun being on the frontier of humanity?

Jensen Huang

I like it. Yeah.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen.

Jensen Huang

Ladies and gentlemen, I like it. I like it. And guys, it's great there. The future is great, and we want to get there. Listen, right? A lot of us don't have to work. But I've got to tell you, it's too good not to be.

It's so fun, right? And so, I want everyone to be there. I want to be there. I want all of you guys there with me. We're all going to be there. We're going to be enormously successful together as a humanity.

In the meantime, we've got to encourage them, urge them on. They're doing really, really important work, as you guys know, and I want them to succeed. I also would love for us to tone down the drama. Most importantly, we need all of America to come with us. That's how we make it.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, Jensen Huang.

Jensen Huang

Thanks, man. Appreciate you. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Jensen Huang

That was awesome. Only your part.

Speaker 1

That was awesome. That was great.

Jensen Huang

Thanks, guys. That was great, huh? Great time.