[BidClub_]
All-In · · 94 分钟

Elon Musk:OpenAI 的背叛、他在 Tesla 的未来,以及下一个大机会——Grokipedia

Elon MuskChamath PalihapitiyaJason CalacanisDavid SacksDavid Friedberg

YouTube
TL;DR
  • Musk 的下一轮 X 产品迭代将借助 Grok,摆脱脆弱的 Twitter 启发式规则:初期读取它判断为最重要的约1亿条日帖中的1000万条,随后扩展至全部1亿条;Musk 估计需要“约5万张 H100”。 兑现方式包括个性化排序,以及覆盖文字、图片和视频的语义搜索;近期则会推出精选版 Following 标签并修复漏洞,压制由互动触发的“内容漏斗”。

  • Grokipedia v0.1 是 xAI 将 AI 生成的参考产品做得实质上比 Wikipedia 更广的尝试,而不只是减少偏见。 一个“最大化追求真相”的 Grok 会遍历 Wikipedia 最热门的100万篇文章,在研究公开资料后进行“增加、修改和删除”;Musk 预计1.0版本会好10倍,完整产品会“好100倍”,未来还会加入自动生成的解释视频。

  • Musk 将 X 三年来的转型定义为一次言论自由干预,而其证据层如今结合了一键式 Grok 分析与 Community Notes。 Jason 表示,Twitter Files 揭露了80名 FBI 特工提交下架请求;这场复盘还涉及被恢复的账号和激进的影子封禁工具。Musk 当前的规则是遵守各国法律,即使在巴西等案例中,平台也会被夹在法官命令与成文法本身之间。

  • Tesla 的 Optimus 项目以 Musk 能否保有足够投票控制权、抵御出于政治动机的罢免为前提。 他希望持有约25%——“足以形成强大影响力”,但如果他“发疯”又不至于阻止其被罢免——因为被动型基金以及代理顾问 ISS 和 Glass Lewis 否则可能威胁他的职位。被问及投票失败后是否会离开时,他没有明确表示会这么做,只说:“如果我能轻易被激进投资者踢出去,我不会去打造机器人军队。”

  • Musk 预计自己的 OpenAI 案将在2月或3月进入陪审团审理,并将其定义为对公司最初开源、非营利承诺的执行。 Jason 表示,加州总检察长对重组的分析排除了 Musk 的诉讼,因此该案仍未解决。Musk 称,公司注册文件禁止创始人和高管从中获得经济利益;他认为,如果自己在命名、出资和招募之后创办的是普通公司,那么“可能会拥有公司一半”。他为这场反转提出的名字是“为利润最大化而关闭的 AI”。

  • AI 是一场“超音速海啸”,但 Musk 认为,更长期的机会在于让推理成本大幅下降。 假设有1亿辆 Tesla、每辆车贡献约1千瓦的车载推理算力,总量就能达到100吉瓦;与此同时,人脑的高级功能大约只消耗10瓦,显示 AI 算力仍有巨大的效率提升空间。Musk 表示,Tesla 和 xAI 在推理效率上仍持续取得“巨大改善”。

  • Tesla 的自动驾驶里程碑依然激进,但明确受安全条件约束:Cybercab 将于明年二季度开始生产,年产量最终可能达到数百万辆;奥斯汀的车辆预计会在12月某个时间取消安全监控员。 Musk 强调,当前每辆 Tesla 都已经具备无人监督自动驾驶能力,但公司仍“保持偏执”,因为一次事故就可能成为全球新闻;车队目标则谨慎表述为年底前湾区约1000辆、大奥斯汀地区500辆。

  • Musk 将气候风险放在约50年的时间尺度上——既不是5年,也不是500年——并认为太阳能经济性和制造规模已经指向终点。 中国每年约1.5太瓦的太阳能产能、约1太瓦的年用电量,以及美国约0.5太瓦的平均用电量,在他调整后的计算中意味着,中国18个月的产量就能覆盖美国需求。他偏好的政策是对补贴保持中立;在物理层面,他的说法更直接:“一切都是太阳能”,核能可以作为选项,而地球上的聚变相比太阳只是一个小项目。

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. Grok 正在帮助 X 摆脱脆弱的推荐系统

  • 一个重大漏洞曾导致站内帖子无法显示:用户即使关注了某人,也可能看不到对方的帖子。与此同时,排序系统低估了被动停留时间,却把点赞、回复和其他互动视为压倒性信号,最终不断推送“同一种东西的洪流”。

  • Musk 的诊断是增益过高:“你已经尝过一份了。我们要给你上三份。” X 基本已经修复了这个“内容漏斗”,但移除旧 Twitter 的启发式规则仍然危险,因为“一个漏洞在替另一个漏洞兜底”,就像一台复杂机器靠一根木棍支撑着运转。

  • Following 标签将增加一个可选的 Grok 精选视图,从用户已经关注的账号中挑选最有意思的帖子。这解决了少数高产账号在倒序时间线中造成信息淹没的问题,同时保留现有的未过滤标签。

  • 更大的变化在于对内容本身的理解。Grok 初期会读取约1亿条日帖中它判断最重要的1000万条——可能只是英文内容——随后扩展到整个信息流;Musk 猜测这需要“约5万张 H100”。语义搜索将把自然语言查询与文字、图片和视频进行匹配。

2. Grokipedia 把批判性推理变成参考产品

  • Musk 表示,Grok 被训练成“最大化追求真相”,并能够进行连贯分析:识别论证的公理,检验这些公理是否可能为真、彼此是否一致,再判断结论是否自然成立。“我们就是用大量批判性思维训练了 Grok。”他形容这项任务相当困难。

  • 该模型被要求遍历 Wikipedia 最热门的100万篇文章,并在研究所有公开资料后进行“增加、修改和删除”。目标不只是纠正错误陈述:宣传也可能由技术上真实、但权重或语境处理糟糕的事实构成,最终歪曲对某个人、事件或主题的呈现。

  • Jason 表示,他在 Grokipedia 上的个人简介比 Wikipedia 页面长5到6倍,也更具代表性。Musk 强调这只是0.1版本,预计1.0版本会好10倍,最终又称产品会“好100倍”;Jason 指出,图片和视频尚未加入,Musk 则表示计划使用 Grok Imagine 制作解释视频。

  • 被问及证据是否真的能改变人的想法时,Musk 说,部落式效忠往往占上风:有些人拒绝观看任何不利于自身观点的视频,最终实际上变成了“地平论者”。X 的应对是分层的——一键即可调用 Grok 进行更深入的研究,而 Community Notes 要求那些历史上意见相左的人达成一致,并将代码和数据都开源。

3. Twitter 空置的总部暴露出大规模运营浪费

  • 收购时,Twitter 的两栋总部大楼中有一栋完全空置,另一栋的入驻率约为5%。食堂却仍按此前的规模运转,让一顿名义上20美元的午餐实际变成400美元,因为成本没有随出席人数降至原来的二十分之一。

  • 空置大楼里的白板笔在两年无人使用后已经干涸;清洁工仍在维护一间本就干净的办公室,新鲜卫生棉条也持续送达。荒谬之处不在于混乱,而在于目标消失后,流程仍然无限期执行。

  • 财务浪费远不止办公室层面的戏剧效果:Twitter 为从未安装过的 SaaS 付费,在无人办公的情况下保留每个工位对应的管理软件,还花费数百万美元为一栋空楼进行基于摄像头的行人流量分析。Musk 按“Dilbert 指数”给最后一个案例打了“11分(满分10分)”。

4. X 与旧审查体系决裂,但仍遵守当地法律

  • Jason 的复盘将问题分为三层:知名账号封禁、不公开的影子封禁,以及政府介入。Donald Trump、Jordan Peterson、Jay Bhattacharya 和 Andrew Tate 等人的账号被恢复;收购则揭露了那些可以悄悄降低账号曝光、尽管企业多年否认其存在的勾选式工具。

  • Musk 称负责运营这些工具的团队使用“Trust and Safety”这一名称,带有奥威尔式色彩。他向外部记者提供了直接且不受监督的内部记录访问权限;随后公开的 Twitter Files 和国会听证会记录了邮件、Slack 消息与数据库操作,Jason 则表示有80名 FBI 特工提交过下架请求。

  • X 目前的政策很简单:遵守适用法律,而不是自行额外施加限制。巴西说明了这一政策的边界:Musk 表示,一名法官要求 X 按巴西法律封禁账号,同时又下达禁言令,使公司被要求违法却不能公开这一要求;X 因此曾一度在当地被封锁。

  • Musk 认为,全球正在推动把压制言论编码为“仇恨言论”,欧洲和澳大利亚都包括在内;Jason 称英国和德国在这方面尤为激进。Musk 表示,据他了解,英国大约有2000至3000人因社交媒体帖子入狱。他的原则是互惠的:受保护的言论必须包括人们憎恨的内容——“不要压制,否则你也可能被压制”。

5. Optimus 让 Tesla 的投票控制权变成产品安全问题

  • Jason 开场谈到他认为自相矛盾的代理顾问建议:这些顾问一方面反对非裔美国女性董事 Kathleen Wilson-Thompson,另一方面又以多元化不足为由反对 Ira Ehrenpreis。Musk 的结构性批评是,被动型指数基金控制着约一半的股市,且经常把投票判断外包给 ISS 和 Glass Lewis,而这两家公司并不持有相关股票。

  • 他认为,退休储蓄者依赖基金管理人最大化股东回报,但激进投资者会聚集到代理顾问身边,因为投票权就在那里。Musk 将这些公司称为“企业 ISIS”,担心它们的政治立场会在没有相应经济所有权的情况下,实际决定上市公司的领导层。

  • Musk 希望拥有约25%的 Tesla 投票权,既能形成强大影响力,又能在他“发疯”时让自己被罢免。他具体担心的是先造出一支“机器人军队”,随后因政治原因失去控制权,无法确保其安全。他没有明确威胁离开,但明确表示,只要自己能轻易被罢免,就不会打造这支军队。

6. OpenAI 诉讼检验最初的非营利承诺

  • Jason 指出,加州总检察长对 OpenAI 重组的分析排除了 Musk 的诉讼,因此该案仍未解决。Musk 认为案件将在2月或3月进入陪审团审理,并称手上有“一座证据大山”。据他的说法,OpenAI 的注册文件明确设立了一个开源非营利组织,并禁止任何高管或创始成员从中获得经济利益;其网站的存档版本也重复了这一定位。

  • 他表示,自己构思并命名了这家公司,提供了 A、B、C 轮融资,招募了关键人员,并分享了自己所知的一切。如果当时选择成立商业公司,他估计自己“可能会拥有公司一半”,但非营利结构是一次有意为之的“送给全世界的礼物”。

  • 创立 OpenAI 的出发点是 AI 安全与竞争平衡。当时 Google 基本拥有全部的 AI、算力和资金;Musk 讲述称,Larry Page 对 AI 可能毁灭人类的担忧不以为然,反而因他偏袒人类而非机器智能,称他为“物种主义者”。OpenAI 因此被打造为 Google 的开源、非营利对立面。

  • Musk 如今把 OpenAI 称为“为利润最大化而关闭的 AI”(closed for maximum profit AI),并称其“比诺克斯堡还严密”。他说,中国总体上提供了当今最好的开源模型;他称赞 Grok 2.5 非常出色,同时认为 OpenAI 发布的产品只是没人运行的、已经破裂的“遮羞布”。对于 Sam Altman 所说的1.4万亿美元数据中心目标,Musk 的回答很简短:“我认为他是认真的。”

7. AI 的功率曲线比当下的就业预测更重要

  • 被问及岗位替代和社会缓冲措施时,Musk 给出的是一个隐喻,而非政策时间表:AI 是一场“超音速海啸”,一堵以超音速移动的巨大水墙。他表示,不管自己是否愿意,AI 都会到来,并再次提到自己过去曾试图放慢 AI 的发展。

  • Tesla 的在用车队是一个非传统的推理资产。如果未来车辆数达到1亿辆,每辆车都配备约1千瓦的推理算力、内置电源、散热和 Wi-Fi,那么闲置车辆合计就能提供100吉瓦的分布式推理能力。

  • Jason 的功耗效率问题提到,有些架构可能将每个 token 的能耗降低3到4个数量级。Musk 用生物学作答:人脑消耗约20瓦,其中只有约10瓦用于高级认知,但这台“10瓦肉电脑”创造了飞机、激光、互联网、广义相对论和量子力学。

  • 人类还能够容忍约20年的“启动序列”,通信速度也许只有每秒10比特,而非太字节级别。即使一台100兆瓦或1吉瓦的 AI 计算机目前还无法完成所有人类能做的事情,这种对比仍是 Musk 证明效率存在巨大提升空间的依据;Tesla 和 xAI 已经看到“巨大改善”。

8. 每辆 Tesla 都可能成为 Robotaxi,而 Cybercab 将取消操控装置

  • Musk 否定自动驾驶只能属于专用车辆的观点。Model 3、Model Y 和其他现款 Tesla 已经搭载无人监督自动驾驶所需的 AI 计算机、软件和正确布置的摄像头;传感器看起来普通,是因为 Tesla 将其隐藏在后视镜、转向灯、B 柱和车牌周围。

  • Cybercab 是专用自动驾驶产品,没有方向盘或踏板,因为 Musk 认为在自动驾驶世界里,两者都是“残余器官”。生产计划于明年二季度开始,随后逐步爬坡,最终年产量有望达到数百万辆。

  • Jason 追问是否可以推出带方向盘的消费者版本,并表示自己的 Model Y Juniper 在 Mad Max 模式下运行14.1版本软件时,已经接近自动驾驶。Musk 的反驳基于行为事实:Uber 或 Lyft 乘客几乎从不希望停止使用手机、重新接管车辆——“现实就是他们不会这么做”。

  • 尽管如此,Musk 仍强调谨慎。车辆已经“极其强大”,但 Tesla 仍“保持偏执”,因为一次事故就可能登上全球头条,尤其是 Tesla 的事故。公司预计奥斯汀车辆会在年底前、也就是“12月某个时间”,在没有坐在车内的安全监控员的情况下运行,但这只是预期,并非保证。

9. Robotaxi 扩张如今是车队软件问题

  • Musk 表示,奥斯汀的上线过程很顺利;大量学习集中在车队运营,而非基础驾驶。Tesla 必须重建 Uber 的叫车与调度系统,只是被召唤的车辆没有司机,同时还要协调充电、路线、车辆位置和波动需求。

  • 他估计,到年底 Tesla 在湾区可能至少拥有1000辆车,在大奥斯汀地区可能有500辆或更多。边缘情况包括防止所有车辆选择同一个 Supercharger、决定闲置车辆在哪里等待、识别褪色的残疾人车位标线,以及避开那些过于狭窄、乘客无法上下车的车位。

  • 机场带来的是本地化集成,而不是普适性的自动驾驶。要把乘客送到圣何塞机场,车辆必须调用机场服务器并触发约5美元的费用。Musk 对这套系统的戏剧化描述是:一辆机器人汽车发起远程过程调用,让机场能够从它的信用卡扣费。

10. 气候风险以几十年计,而不是紧急口号

  • Musk 以 Bill Gates 对远程 Tesla Semi 的怀疑为例,说明先有结论、后找论据的推理方式。当 Musk 问 Gates 是否质疑电池每公斤瓦时数,或底盘每英里瓦时数时,Musk 表示 Gates 两个数字都不知道,却坚持认为这辆卡车行不通——尽管 Pepsi 已经在使用它。

  • 在气候问题上,Musk 既反对“它不存在”,也反对主要城市将在5年内被海水淹没的说法。大气中的 CO2 可以用一台约50美元的监测仪测量,而且每年增加约2–3 ppm;持续把数十亿、最终数万亿吨地下碳排入大气和海洋,必然会改变它们的化学性质。

  • 他对数量级的判断是,气候至少还要50年才会成为严重问题:大概率不是5年,但也不是500年。合理应对方式是倾向于太阳能和电池,同时取消所有行业的补贴,包括部分已经存在80年的油气税收优惠——尽管行业已经习惯于把这些优惠视为非补贴。

11. 太阳能制造规模压倒其他选项

  • Musk 估计,中国每年的太阳能板产能约为1.5太瓦,年用电量约1太瓦,而美国平均用电量仅为0.5太瓦。将太阳能的铭牌产出因夜间和朝向因素除以约5后,他计算称,中国18个月的产量就能提供相当于美国全部用电量的稳定供电能力。

  • 他支持核裂变,理由是美国海军潜艇和航空母舰已经在拥挤环境中安全运行核反应堆,但也指出监管和社区阻力。他还认为,足够放大的托卡马克可以通过改善表面积与体积的比例实现净正聚变;然而,与头顶上那座免费、由引力约束的反应堆相比,地球上的聚变只是“一个有趣的科学项目”。

  • 太阳约占太阳系总质量的99.8%,木星约占0.1%,其产生的能量远超地球上一切事物的总和,超过10亿倍。抵达地球的太阳辐照通量约为每平方公里1吉瓦;效率约25–26%、铺设率80%的太阳能板,每平方公里大约能产生200兆瓦,或者用一个更容易记忆的近似值表示:每天每平方公里1吉瓦时。

  • Musk 认为,建设太阳能电池地球不存在原材料障碍:太阳能板主要由硅构成,磷酸铁锂电池使用常见的铁、磷、碳和锂。地球本身按质量约32%是铁、30%是氧——“一个生锈的滚珠轴承”;他表示,Tesla 公布的计算显示,材料足以让整个星球完全使用电力。

Jason Calacanis

Let’s get started. We wanted to try something new this week. Every week, I get a little upset. Things perturb me, Sacks, and when they do, I just yell and scream, “Disgrace!” So I bought the domain domain name.com for no reason other than my own amusement. But you know what? I’m not alone in my absolute disgust at what’s going on in the world. This week, we’re going to bring out a new feature here on the All-In podcast: Disgrace Corner.

This is fantastic. This is our new feature. Chamath, you look like you’re ready to go. Why don’t you tell everybody who gets your disgrace this week?

Chamath Palihapitiya

Wait, we all had to come with a disgrace?

Jason Calacanis

You really missed the memo. All right, fine. Enough.

Chamath Palihapitiya

I got one. I got one.

Jason Calacanis

Okay. All right. Just calm down.

Chamath Palihapitiya

My Disgrace Corner goes to Jason Calacanis and Pete Buttigieg, who, in the first 30 seconds of the interview, compared virtue-signaling points about how each one had worked at various moments at Amnesty International.

Literally affecting zero change, making no progress in the world, but collecting a badge that they used to hold over other people.

Jason Calacanis

Absolutely.

Chamath Palihapitiya

We wrote a lot of letters. We wrote a lot of letters, which is good. That means it’s a good one, because behind the scenes, Jason and Pete Buttigieg: disgrace.

Jason Calacanis

Great. I’m glad I get the first one, and you can imagine what’s coming next week for you.

I saw the Sydney Sweeney dress trending on social today. It’s too much.

Chamath Palihapitiya

What is it? I didn’t even know what this was.

Jason Calacanis

You didn’t see it? Nice picture. Okay, bring it up.

David Sacks

It’s a little floppy.

Chamath Palihapitiya

How is this disgusting? What are you talking about?

Jason Calacanis

It’s disgraceful. Look at this. Oh, my God. Too much. Too elegant.

Too much. In my day, Sacks, a little cleavage, maybe, perhaps in the 1990s or 2000s. Some side view. This is too much.

David Friedberg

Very highbrow subject, madam. We were discussing our own politics and the Sydney Sweeney dress. I don’t know who’s trending.

Elon Musk

We open-sourced it to the fans, and they’ve just gone crazy with what’s going on with the algorithm.

Jason Calacanis

I’m getting Sydney Sweeney’s dress all day.

Elon Musk

Well, maybe you should stop favoring it.

Jason Calacanis

Fifteen times. And then Sacks—poor Sacks got invited to SlutCon for 2 weeks straight by the algorithm. What was your interaction? Did you bookmark SlutCon?

David Sacks

No, I say the algorithm has become—

Jason Calacanis

Sacks will even tell you whether that’s a joke or a real thing.

David Sacks

It’s a real thing in San Francisco.

David Friedberg

It’s all too real. It’s actually real. Yeah, for real.

Jason Calacanis

But I’ve noticed that if you demonstrate interest in anything on X—if you click on it, God forbid, you like something—the algorithm is on it. It will give you more of that, a lot more.

Elon Musk

Yes. We did have an issue—we still have somewhat of an issue—where there was an important bug that was identified and solved over the weekend, which caused in-network posts not to be shown. So, basically, if you followed someone, you wouldn’t see their posts.

Obviously, it was a big bug, a major bug. Then the algorithm was not properly taking into account if you just dwelt on something. But if you interacted with it, it would go hog-wild. So, as David said, if you were to favorite, reply, or engage with it in some way, it is going to get you a torrent of that same thing.

It was just going too far. Obviously, it was overcorrecting. It had too much gain on it; it turned up the gain way too high. Any interaction would then get you a torrent of that. It’s like, “Oh, you had a taste of it. We’re going to give you 3 helpings. We’re going to force-feed you. We’re going to give you the food funnel.”

Jason Calacanis

And that’s all being done, I assume, with Grok now? So, it’s not like the old hard-coded algorithm, or is it using Grok?

Elon Musk

What’s happening is that we’re gradually deleting the legacy Twitter heuristics. The problem is that, as you delete these heuristics, it turns out one heuristic, one bug, was covering for the other bug.

It’s like that meme with the internet, where there’s this very complicated machine and a tiny little wooden stick keeping it going, which was, I guess, AWS East or whatever had something like that. When somebody pulled out the little stick, everything stopped working.

Jason Calacanis

I think it would be good if it showed 1 person you follow and then blended the old style, which was just reverse chronological order of your friends—the original version—with this new version. So you get a little bit of both.

Elon Musk

Well, you can still—you still have the Following tab. Everyone still has the Following tab.

Now, something we’re going to be adding is the ability to have a curated Following tab. The problem is that if you follow some people and they’re a little more prolific than you, some people say a lot more than others. That makes the Following tab hard to use.

We’re going to add an option where you can have the Following tab be curated. Grok will say, “What are the most interesting things posted by your friends?” and then we’ll show you that in the Following tab. It will also show you everything, but I think having that option will make the Following tab much more useful.

It’ll be a curated list of people you follow—ideally, the most interesting things that they’ve said—which is what you would want to look at. We’ve mostly fixed the bug that would give you way too much of something if you interacted with a particular subject matter.

The really big change is that Grok literally reads everything that’s posted to the platform. There are about 100 million posts per day, so it’s 100 million pieces of content per day. I think that’s maybe just in English; it goes beyond that if it’s outside of English.

We’re going to start off by reading what Grok thinks are the top 10 million of the 100 million. We’ll actually read them, understand them, categorize them, and match them to users. This is not a job humans could ever do.

Once that’s scaling reasonably well, we’ll add the entire 100 million a day. It’s literally going to read through 100 million things and show you the things that it thinks are the most interesting posts to you.

Jason Calacanis

How much of Colossus will that take? Is it tens of thousands of servers to do that every day?

Elon Musk

My guess is it’s probably on the order of 50,000 H100s, something like that.

Jason Calacanis

Wow. And that will replace search? You’ll be able to actually search on Twitter and find things with plain language?

Elon Musk

We’ll have semantic search, where you can just ask a question, and it will show you all content—whether that’s text, pictures, or video—that matches your search query semantically.

Jason Calacanis

How’s it been 3 years in? This was a 3-year anniversary like a couple years. Is this 3 years?

Elon Musk

Yeah. Remember, it was Halloween.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. Halloween’s back.

Elon Musk

Halloween’s back. We had a good time, yeah.

Jason Calacanis

Wow. Yeah, 3 years. Where will things be 3 years from now? What’s the takeaway? 3 years later, you obviously don’t regret buying it. It saved free speech. That was good. You seemed to have turned that whole thing around, and that was, I think, a big part of your mission.

But then you added it to xAI, which makes it incredibly valuable as a data source. When you look back on it, the reason you bought it—to stop the crazy woke mind virus and make truth exist in the world again—great, mission accomplished. Now it has this great future.

Elon Musk

Yeah, we’ve got Community Notes. You can also ask Grok about anything you see on the platform.

Just press the Grok icon on any X post, and we’ll analyze it for you and research it as much as you want. You can basically, just by tapping the Grok icon, assess whether that post is the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, or whether there’s something supplemental that needs to be explained. I think we’ve actually made a lot of progress toward freedom of speech and toward people being able to tell whether something is false or is false propaganda. The recent update to Grok is actually very good at piercing through propaganda.

We used that latest version of Grok to create Grokipedia, which I think is much more neutral and more accurate than Wikipedia, but actually has a lot more information than a Wikipedia page.

Jason Calacanis

Did you seed it with Wikipedia? Actually, take a step back. How did you guys do this?

Elon Musk

We used AI.

Jason Calacanis

But meaning, like, totally unsupervised? Just a complete training run on its own? Totally synthetic data? No seeded set, nothing?

Elon Musk

It was only recently possible for us to do this. We finished training a maximally truth-seeking version of Grok that is good at cogent analysis: breaking down any given argument into its axiomatic elements, assessing whether those axioms are likely to be true, whether they’re contradictory, and whether the conclusion naturally follows from those axioms.

We trained Grok on a lot of critical thinking, so it got really good at critical thinking, which was quite hard. Then we took that version of Grok and said, “Okay, cycle through the 1 million most popular articles in Wikipedia and add, modify, and delete.” That means researching the rest of the internet—whatever is publicly available—correcting the Wikipedia articles, fixing mistakes, and adding a lot more context.

Sometimes, the nature of propaganda is that facts are stated that are technically true but do not properly represent a picture of the individual.

Jason Calacanis

This is critical because when you have a bio, as you do—and actually, we all do on Wikipedia—over time, it’s just the people you fired, beat in business, or who have an axe to grind. It slowly becomes the place where everybody who hates you puts their information.

I looked at mine, and it was so much more representative. It was 5 times longer, 6 times longer, and what it gave weight to was much more accurate. Much more accurate.

This opportunity was sitting here for a long time, and it’s great that you got to it because—

Elon Musk

They don’t update my page much—maybe twice a month. And who is the secret cabal? There are 50 people who are anonymous who decide what gets put on it.

Jason Calacanis

It was a much better, much more updated page in version 1.

Elon Musk

Yes, this is version 0.1, as we put it—as we show at the top. By the time we get to version 1.0, I think it’ll be 10 times better. But even at this early stage, as you just mentioned, it’s not just correcting errors; it’s creating a more accurate, realistic, and fleshed-out description of people and events.

Jason Calacanis

You think about subject matter, too? You can look at articles on physics in Grokipedia, and they’re much better than Wikipedia by far. This is what I was going to ask you: Do you think you can take this corpus of pages and get Google to deboost Wikipedia or boost Grokipedia in traditional search? A lot of people still find Wikipedia, and they believe it’s authoritative because it comes up number 1.

Elon Musk

It really can. If Grokipedia is used elsewhere—if people cite it on their websites, post about it on social media, or, when they do a search and Grokipedia shows up, click on Grokipedia—it will naturally rise in Google’s rankings.

I did text Sundar because even a day after launch, if you typed in Grokipedia, Google would just say, “Did you mean Wikipedia?”

Jason Calacanis

Wikipedia. Yeah.

Elon Musk

And it wouldn’t bring it up at all.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, it’s true. So now, how’s the usage been? Have you seen good growth since it launched?

Elon Musk

Yeah. It went super viral. We’re seeing it spread all over the place. I think we’ll see it used more and more as people refer to it.

People will judge for themselves when they read a Grokipedia article about a subject or a person they know a lot about and see, “Wow, this is way better than Wikipedia. It’s more comprehensive. It’s way more accurate. It’s neutral instead of biased.” Then they’re going to send those links around and say, “This is actually the better source.”

Grokipedia will succeed very well because it is fundamentally a superior product to Wikipedia. It is a better source of information.

Jason Calacanis

And we haven’t even added images and video yet.

Elon Musk

Yeah, we’re going to add a lot of video using Grok Imagine to create videos. If you’re trying to explain something, Grok Imagine can take the text from Grokipedia and generate an explanatory video.

If you’re trying to understand anything from how to tie a bow tie to how certain chemical reactions work—or really anything, including dietary or medical topics—you can just go and see the video of how it works, created by—

Jason Calacanis

When you have this version that’s maximally truth-seeking as a model, do you think there needs to be a better eval or benchmark that people can point to, showing how far from the truth things are? If you’re going to start a training run with Common Crawl, or if you’re going to use Reddit, is it important to be able to say, “Hey, hold on a second. This eval just sucks. You guys suck on this eval. This is crappy data”?

Elon Musk

Yeah, I guess I’m not—I think there are a lot of evals out there. I have complete confidence that Grokipedia is going to succeed because Wikipedia is actually not a very good product.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Elon Musk

The information is sparse, wrong, and out of date. If you have something that is accurate and comprehensive, has videos, and where, moreover, you can ask about any part of it that you’re curious about—you can just highlight it and ask Grok right there—it’s great for learning something. It’s not going to be a little bit better than Wikipedia. It’s going to be 100 times better than Wikipedia.

Jason Calacanis

Elon, do you think you’ll see good, uniform usage? If you look back on the last 3 years since you bought Twitter, there were a lot of people after you bought Twitter who said, “I’m leaving Twitter. Elon bought it. I’m going to go to this other—wherever the hell they went—and there are all these new creatures.”

Elon Musk

Yeah, but Bluesky failing is my favorite.

Jason Calacanis

I guess my question is: As you destroy the woke mind virus’ control of the system and bring truth to the system, whether through Grokipedia or through X, do people just look for confirmation bias and not actually accept the truth? What do you think? Or do you think people are actually going to see the truth and change?

Elon Musk

Yeah, but I mean, is that like—

Jason Calacanis

You thought Sydney Sweeney’s boobs were great? Let me see mine.

Looking good. Solid week there. Put a little something sheer, you know. I think we just got flagged on YouTube again.

Yeah, we did. That was definitely going to give us a censorship moment. Grade-A moves.

No, but do people change their minds? Can you actually change people’s minds by putting the truth in front of them, or do people just ignore the truth because they feel like they’re in some sort of camp? They want confirmation bias. They want to stay in a camp and be tribal about everything.

David, you were trying to ask a serious question. Go ahead.

David Friedberg

I just want to know if people change their minds. Can you actually change people’s minds by putting the truth in front of them, or do people just ignore the truth because they feel like they’re in some sort of camp? They want confirmation bias, and they want to stay in a camp and be tribal about everything.

Elon Musk

It is remarkable how much people believe things simply because they’re the beliefs of their in-group—whatever their political or ideological tribe is.

There are some pretty hilarious videos of some guy going around calling someone a racist Nazi or whatever, and then trying to show them videos of the thing they’re talking about, where he is in fact condemning the Nazis in the strongest possible terms and condemning racism in the strongest possible terms. They literally don’t even want to watch them.

So, yeah, at least some people would prefer to stick to whatever their ideological views are, whatever their political tribal views are.

No matter what. The evidence could be staring them in the face, and they're just going to be a flat-earther. There is no evidence that you can show a flat-earther to convince them the world's round, because everything is just a lie: the world is flat.

Jason Calacanis

I think the ability to hit Grok in a reply and ask it a question in the thread has really become a truth-seeking missile on the platform. When I put up metrics or something like that, I reply to myself and say, “Grok, is the information I just shared correct? Can you find any better information? Please tell me if my argument is correct or if I’m wrong.” Then it goes through, DMs Sacks, and Sacks gets in my replies and tries to correct me.

It does a really good job, and that combined with Community Notes means you’ve got 2 swings at bat: the community’s consensus view and then Grok coming in. I think it would be really interesting if Grok, on really powerful threads, did its own version of Community Notes and had it sitting there ahead of time. You could look at a thread and see something next to it, or maybe click on a specific statistic, and it would show you, “Here’s where that statistic is from.”

Elon Musk

Pretty much every post on X, unless it’s advertising or something, has the Grok symbol on it.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Elon Musk

You just tap that symbol, and you’re 1 tap away from a Grok analysis. Literally, you’re 1 tap away. We don’t want to clutter the interface by providing an explanation, but if you go on X right now, it’s 1 tap to get Grok’s analysis. Grok will research the X post and give you an accurate answer.

You can even ask it to do further research and further due diligence. You can go as far down the rabbit hole as you want. I do think this is consistent with wanting X to be the best source of truth on the planet by far, where you hear any and all points of view, but where those points of view are corrected by human editors with Community Notes.

The essence of Community Notes is that people who historically disagree agree that the Community Note was correct. All of the Community Notes code is open source, and the data is open source, so you can recreate any Community Note from scratch independently.

Jason Calacanis

By and large, it’s worked very well.

Elon Musk

Yeah.

Jason Calacanis

I think we originally had the idea to have you back on the pod because it was the 3-year anniversary of the Twitter acquisition. I just wanted to reminisce a little bit.

Elon Musk

I remember.

Jason Calacanis

Where’s that sink? Well, yeah. Elon was staying at my house. We had talked the week before, and he told me the deal was going to close, so I was like, “Hey, do you need a place to stay?” He took me up on it.

The day before he went to the Twitter office, there was a request made to my staff: “Do you happen to have an extra sink?” They did not.

Elon Musk

Who has an extra sink, really?

Jason Calacanis

But they were able to locate one at a nearby hardware store. I think they paid extra to get it out of the window or something.

Elon Musk

I think the store was confused because my security team was asking for any kind of sink. Normally people wouldn’t ask for any kind of sink because you need a sink that fits in your bathroom or connects to a certain kind of plumbing. They were asking what kind of faucets we wanted. “No, no, I just wanted a sink.”

Jason Calacanis

And didn’t care what the sink connected to.

Elon Musk

That was it. They were almost not letting us buy the sink because they thought maybe we’d buy the wrong sink. It’s just rare that somebody wants a sink for meme purposes.

Jason Calacanis

One of my favorite memories was when Elon said, “Hey, swing by. Check it out.” I said, “Okay, I’ll come by.” I drove up there, and I was looking for where to park the car. I realized there were just parking spaces around the entire business building, and I was like, “Okay, this can’t be legal parking.” But I parked, and it was legal parking.

Elon Musk

Yeah.

Jason Calacanis

You’re in downtown San Francisco, so you might get your window broken, but—

Elon Musk

Yeah.

Jason Calacanis

I might not be there when I get back. We got in there, and the place was empty.

Elon Musk

Yeah. It was seriously empty except for the cafeteria.

Jason Calacanis

The Twitter headquarters was 2 buildings. One of the buildings was completely and utterly empty, and the other building had about 5% occupancy. At 5% occupancy, we all went to get something to eat, and we realized there were more people working in the cafeteria than at Twitter.

Elon Musk

There were more people making the food than eating the food in this giant, really nice cafeteria. This is where we discovered that the actual price of lunch was $400.

Jason Calacanis

The original price was $20, but at 5% occupancy, it went 20 times higher. They still kept making pretty much the same amount and charging the same amount, so effectively lunch was $400.

Elon Musk

That was a great meeting.

Jason Calacanis

Yes. And then there was that—where we had the initial meetings, trying to figure out what the heck was going on, in these buildings. There were 2 Twitter buildings, and 1 of them had literally no one in it. That’s where we had the initial meetings.

We tried drawing on the whiteboard, but the markers had gone dry. Nobody had used the whiteboard markers in 2 years.

Elon Musk

So sad.

Jason Calacanis

None of the markers worked. This was totally bizarre, but it was totally clean because the cleaning crew had come in and done their job and cleaned an already clean place for 2 or 3 years straight. Honestly, this is more crazy than any Mike Judge movie or Silicon Valley or anything like that.

I remember going into the men’s bathroom, and there was a table with—

Elon Musk

Hygiene—

Jason Calacanis

Menstrual hygiene products.

Elon Musk

Yep.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, refreshed every week.

Elon Musk

Tampons. A fresh box of tampons.

Jason Calacanis

We were like, “But there’s literally no one in this building.”

Elon Musk

No, they hadn’t turned off sending fresh tampons to the men’s bathroom in the empty building.

Jason Calacanis

No.

Elon Musk

So every week they would put a fresh box of tampons in an empty building for years. It must have been very confusing to the people who were being asked to do this because they were thinking, “Okay, I’ll throw them away.”

Jason Calacanis

I guess they’re paying us, so we’ll just put tampons.

Elon Musk

You seriously have to consider the string of possibilities necessary for anyone to possibly use that tampon in the men’s bathroom at the unoccupied second building of Twitter headquarters. You’d have to be a burglar, a trans man burglar, who was unwilling to use the women’s bathroom, which also had tampons.

Jason Calacanis

Statistically, there’s no one in the building. So you’ve broken into the building, and at that moment you have a period.

Elon Musk

Yes. You’re on your period. You’re more likely to be struck by a meteor than need that tampon.

Jason Calacanis

I think it was shortly after that you discovered an entire room at the office filled with Stay Woke T-shirts. Do you remember this?

Elon Musk

An entire pile of merch.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Elon Musk

Yes.

Jason Calacanis

#StayWoke.

Elon Musk

Stay Woke. There were also a big sort of buttons, like magnetic buttons that you put on your shirt, that said, “I am an engineer.”

Jason Calacanis

I’m like, “Look, if you’re an engineer, you don’t need a button.” Who’s the button for? Who are you telling that to? You can just ship code. We would know. We can check your GitHub.

Elon Musk

There were scarves, hoodies, all kinds of merch that said #StayWoke.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, a couple mugs.

Elon Musk

When you found that, I was like, “My God, man. The barbarians are fully within the gates now.”

Jason Calacanis

The barbarians have smashed through the gates and are looting the merch.

Elon Musk

Yes, you are rummaging through their holy relics and defiling them.

Jason Calacanis

When you think about it, David, the amount of waste that we saw there during those first 30 days—

Just to be serious about it for a second, this was a publicly traded company. If you think about the financial duty of those individuals, there was a list of SaaS software we went through, and none of it was being used. Some of it had never been installed, and they had been paying for it for 2 years.

They had been paying for a SaaS product for 2 years. The one that blew my mind the most, which we canceled, was that they were paying a certain amount of money per desk to have desking software in an office where nobody came to work.

Elon Musk

So they were paying—

Jason Calacanis

Nobody.

There were millions of dollars being paid for.

Jason Calacanis

For analysis of pedestrian traffic—software that uses cameras to analyze pedestrian traffic to figure out where you can alleviate pedestrian traffic jams—in an empty building.

Elon Musk

Right.

Jason Calacanis

That's like 11 out of 10 on a Dilbert scale.

Elon Musk

Yeah. It was pretty—shout-out to Scott Adams.

Jason Calacanis

You've gone off scale on your Dilbert level at that point. Let's talk about the free speech aspect for a second, because I think that is the most important legacy of the Twitter acquisition. I think people have short memories, and they forget how bad things were 3 years ago.

First of all, you had figures as diverse as President Trump, Jordan Peterson, Jay Bhattacharya, and Andrew Tate. They were all banned from Twitter. I remember when you opened up the Twitter jails and reinstated their accounts, freeing all the bad boys of free speech.

Elon Musk

The best deal.

Jason Calacanis

Yes. So you basically gave all the bad boys of free speech their accounts back. But beyond just the bannings, there were the shadowbannings. Twitter had claimed for years that they were not shadowbanning, that this was a paranoid conservative conspiracy theory.

Elon Musk

Yeah. There was very aggressive shadowbanning by what was called the Trust and Safety group, which, of course, naturally would be the one that is doing the nefarious shadowbanning. I just think we shouldn't have a group called Trust and Safety. This is an Orwellian name if there ever was one.

Jason Calacanis

Hi, I'm from the Trust Department.

Elon Musk

Oh, really? We want to talk to you about your tweets. Can we see your DMs?

Jason Calacanis

Say that you're from the Trust Department. It's literally the Ministry of Truth right there.

Elon Musk

Yeah.

Jason Calacanis

Executives had maintained for years that they were not engaged in this practice, including under oath. On the heels of you opening that up and exposing that—

Elon Musk

Because, by the way, it wasn't just the fact that they were doing it. They created an elaborate set of tools to do this. They had checkbox sets of tools to deboost accounts.

Jason Calacanis

Yes. Subsequently, we found out that other social networking properties have done this as well, but you really exposed it. This is still being done at the other social media companies, including Google, by the way. I don't want to pick on Google, because they're all doing it, but for search results, if you simply push a result pretty far down the page—or to the second page of results—the joke used to be, or still is, I think: Where do you hide a dead body? The second page of Google search results, because nobody ever goes to the second page of Google search results.

You could hide a dead body there and nobody would find it. You haven't made the result go away; you've just put it on page 2.

Shadowbanning, I think, was number 2. First was banning; second was shadowbanning. I think third, to me, was government collusion and government interference. You released the Twitter Files. Nothing like that had ever been done before, where you actually let investigative reporters go through Twitter's emails unfettered.

Elon Musk

I wasn't looking over their shoulder at all. They just had direct access to everything.

Jason Calacanis

They found that there was extensive collusion between the FBI and Twitter's Trust and Safety group. It turns out the FBI had 80 agents submitting takedown requests, and they were very involved in the banning, the shadowbanning, and the censorship. I don't think we ever had definitive evidence of that before. That was pretty extraordinary.

Elon Musk

Yeah. The U.S. House of Representatives had hearings on the matter, and a lot of this was unearthed. It's public record. Some people on the left still think this is made up. I'm like, this is literally the Twitter Files. They're literally the files at Twitter. We're talking about emails that were sent internally that confirm this. This is what's on the Slack channels, and this is what is shown in the Twitter database as where people have made either suspensions or shadowbans.

Jason Calacanis

Has the government come and asked you to take stuff down since, or do they just have to—the policy is, “Hey, listen, you've got to file a warrant. You've got to come correct,” as opposed to just putting pressure on executives?

Elon Musk

Our policy at this point is to follow the law. The laws are obviously different in different countries. Sometimes I get criticized for, “Why don't you push free speech in XYZ country that doesn't have free speech laws?” I'm like, because that's not the law there. If we don't obey the law, we'll simply be blocked in that country.

The policy is really just to adhere to the laws in any given country. It is up to us to agree or disagree with those laws. If the people of that country want laws to be different, then they should ask their leaders to change the laws.

But as soon as you start going beyond the law, you're putting your thumb on the scale. I think the right policy is just to adhere to the laws within any given country.

Sometimes we get into a bit of a bind, like we got into with Brazil, where this judge in Brazil was asking us—or telling us—to break the law in Brazil and ban accounts contrary to the law of Brazil. Now we're somewhat stuck. We're like, wait a second, we're reading the law, and it says this is not allowed to happen. The judge was also giving us a gag order, so we weren't allowed to say it was happening.

We had to break the law, and the judge was telling us to break the law. The law is breaking the law. That's where things get very difficult. We were actually banned in Brazil for a while because of that.

Jason Calacanis

I want to make one final point on the free speech issue, and then we can move on. I think people forget that the censorship wasn't just about COVID. There was a growing number of categories of thought and opinion that were being outlawed. The so-called content moderation, which is another Orwellian euphemism for censorship, was being applied to categories like gender and even climate change. The definition of hate speech was constantly growing.

Elon Musk

Yes.

Jason Calacanis

More and more people were being banned or shadowbanned, and there were more and more things that you couldn't say. This trend of censorship was growing. It was galloping, and it would have continued if it wasn't, I think, for the fact that you decided to buy Twitter and open it up. It was only on the heels of that that the other social networks were willing to be a little bit chastened in their policies and start to push back more.

Elon Musk

Yeah, that's right. Once Twitter broke ranks, the others had to. It became very obvious what the others were doing, and so they had to mitigate their censorship substantially because of what Twitter did. Perhaps to give them some credit, they also felt that they had the air cover to be more inclined toward free speech.

They still do a lot of shadowbanning and whatnot at the other social media companies, but it's much less than it used to be.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. Elon, what have you seen in terms of governments creating new laws? We've seen a lot of this crackdown in the UK on what's being called hateful speech on social media, and folks getting arrested and actually going to prison over it.

It seems like when there's more freedom, the side that is threatened by that comes out and creates its own counter, right? There's a reaction to that. Are you seeing more of these laws around the world in response to your opening up free speech through Twitter and those changes, and what they're enabling? The governments and the parties that control those governments aren't aligned, and they're stepping in and saying, “Let's create new ways of maintaining our control through law.”

Elon Musk

Yeah. There is an overall global movement to suppress free speech under the guise of suppressing hate speech. The problem with that is that your freedom of speech only matters if people are allowed to say things that you don't like, or even things that you hate.

If you're allowed to suppress speech that you don't like, then you don't have freedom of speech. It's only a matter of time before things switch around, the shoe is on the other foot, and they will suppress you. Suppress not, lest you be suppressed.

There is a very strong movement to codify speech suppression into law throughout the world, including the Western world—Europe and Australia.

Jason Calacanis

The UK and Germany are very aggressive in this regard.

Elon Musk

Yes. My understanding is that in the UK there are something like 2,000 or 3,000 people in prison for social media posts. In fact, there are so many people who were in prison for social media posts, and many of these things are like—you can't believe that someone would actually be put in prison for this.

They have, in a lot of cases, released people who have committed violent crimes in order to imprison people who have simply made posts on social media, which is deeply wrong.

Mhm. And it underscores why the founders of this country made the First Amendment the First Amendment: freedom of speech. Why did they do that? Because in the places they came from, there wasn't freedom of speech, and you could be imprisoned or killed for saying things.

Jason Calacanis

Can I ask you a question just to move to a different topic? If you came and did this next week, we'd be past the Tesla board vote. We talked about it last week, and we talked about how crazy ISS and Glass Lewis are. We used this one insane example where Ira Ehrenpreis didn't get the recommendation from ISS and Glass Lewis because he didn't meet the gender requirements, but then Kathleen Wilson-Thompson—

Elon Musk

It also doesn't make sense.

Jason Calacanis

Can you—so the board vote is on the African-American woman.

Elon Musk

Yeah. True. They recommended against her, but then also recommended against Ira Ehrenpreis on the ground that he was insufficiently diverse.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. These things don't make any sense.

Elon Musk

I do think we've got a fundamental issue with corporate governance in publicly traded companies, where about half of the stock market is controlled by passive index funds. Most of them outsource their decisions to advisory firms, particularly Glass Lewis and ISS. I call them corporate ISIS. All they do is basically—they're just terrorists—and they own no stock in any of these companies.

I think there's a fundamental breakdown of fiduciary responsibility here. Any company that's managing, even though it's passively managing index funds or whatever, does have a fiduciary duty at the end of the day to vote along the lines of what would maximize shareholder returns. People are counting on them. People have all their savings in a 401(k) or something like that, and they're counting on the index funds to vote in company votes in the direction that would ensure their retirement savings do as well as possible.

But the problem is that this is outsourced to ISS and Glass Lewis, which have been infiltrated by far-left activists. Where far-left political activists go, they go where the power is. Effectively, Glass Lewis and ISS control the vote of half the stock market. If you're a political activist, what a great place to go work would be Glass Lewis. And they do.

My concern for the future is that this Tesla thing is called compensation, but really, it's not about compensation. It's not like I'm going to go out and buy a yacht with it or something. It's that, in order to build up Optimus and have all these robots out there, I need to make sure we do not have a Terminator scenario and that I can maximize the safety of the robots.

I feel like I need to have something like a 25% vote, which is enough of a vote to have a strong influence, but not so much of a vote that I can't be fired if I go insane. My concern would be creating this army of robots and then being fired for political reasons because ISS and Glass Lewis—or the activists at those firms—effectively fire me, even though I've done everything right. That's my concern. Then I cannot ensure the safety of the robots.

Jason Calacanis

If you don't get that vote, if it doesn't go your way—it looks like it's going to—would you leave? Is that even in the cards? I heard the board was very concerned about that.

Elon Musk

Let's just say I'm not going to build a robot army if I can be easily kicked out by activist investors.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. No way. No way. It makes sense. Who is capable of running the 4 or 5 major product lines at Tesla? This is the madness of it. It's a very complex business. People don't understand what's under the hood there. It's not just a car company: you've got batteries, you've got trucks, you've got the self-driving group. This is a very complex business that you've built over decades now. It's not a very simple thing to run, and I don't think there's an Elon equivalent out there who can just jump into the cockpit.

If we take a full turn around the corporate governance corner, also this week, what was interesting about the OpenAI restructuring was that I read the letter, and your lawsuit was excluded from the analysis by the California attorney general, basically saying this thing can go through. That means your lawsuit is still out there, right? I think it's going to go to a jury trial.

Elon Musk

Yes.

Jason Calacanis

So that corporate governance issue is still very much in question. Do you have any thoughts on that?

Elon Musk

I believe that will go to a jury trial in February or March, and then we'll see what the results are there. But there's a mountain of evidence that shows that OpenAI was created as an open-source nonprofit. That's literally the exact description in the incorporation documents. In fact, the incorporation documents explicitly say that no officer or founding member will benefit financially from OpenAI.

They've completely violated that. Moreover, you can just use the Wayback Machine and look at the website of OpenAI: “Open-source nonprofit,” “open-source nonprofit,” the whole way through. Then it looked like, wow, there's a lot of money to be gained here, and suddenly it starts changing. They try to change the definition of OpenAI to mean “open to everyone” instead of “open source,” even though it always meant open source.

I came up with the name.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, that's how I know. If they open-sourced it, or if they gave you the percentage ownership in it that you would rightfully be owed—which, for $50 million for a startup, would be half at least—they must have made an overture toward you and said, “Can we just give you 10% of this thing and get your blessing?” You obviously have a different goal here.

Elon Musk

Essentially, since I came up with the idea for the company, named it, provided the A, B, and C rounds of funding, recruited the critical personnel, and told them everything I know, if that had been a commercial corporation, I'd probably own half the company.

I could have chosen to do that. It was totally at my discretion. But I created it as a nonprofit for the world—an open-source nonprofit for the world.

Jason Calacanis

Do you think the right thing to do is to take those models and just open-source them today? If you could affect that change, is that the right thing to do?

Elon Musk

Yeah, I think that is what it was created to do, so it should. The best open-source models right now are generally from China, which is bizarre. Fate seems to be an irony maximizer.

I think the second best are—one is maybe better than second best—the Grok 2.5 open-source model is actually very good. We'll continue to open-source our models. But try using any of the recent so-called OpenAI open-source models. They're out; they don't work. They basically open-sourced a broken, nonworking version of their models as a fig leaf. Do you know anyone who's running OpenAI's open-source models?

Jason Calacanis

Exactly. Yeah. Nobody. We've had a big debate about jobs here. Obviously, there's going to be job displacement. You and I have talked about it for decades. What's your take on the pace of it? You're building self-driving software, and you're building Optimus.

We're seeing Amazon take some steps here where they're saying, “We're probably not going to hire for these positions in the future.” Maybe they're getting rid of people now because they were bloated, but maybe some of it is AI. It's all debatable. What do you think the timeline is, and what do you think we're going to need to do as a society to mitigate it if it goes too fast?

Elon Musk

I call AI the supersonic tsunami—not the most comforting description in the world.

Jason Calacanis

Fast and big.

Elon Musk

There is a tsunami, a giant wall of water, moving faster than the speed of sound. That's AI.

Jason Calacanis

When does it land?

Elon Musk

Yeah, exactly. This is happening whether I want it to or not. I actually tried to slow down AI.

The reason I wanted to create OpenAI was to serve as a counterweight to Google, because at the time Google essentially had unilateral power in AI. They had all the AI, essentially. Larry Page was not taking safety seriously.

Jason, were you there when he called me a speciesist?

Jason Calacanis

Yes, I was there. You were more concerned about the human race than you were about the machines.

And, yeah, you had a clear bias for humanity.

Elon Musk

Yes. Yes, exactly. I was like, “Larry, we need to make sure that the AI doesn’t destroy all the humans.” And then he called me a speciesist—like a racist or something—for being pro-human intelligence instead of machine intelligence. I’m like, “Well, Larry, what side are you on?” I mean, that’s kind of a concern. And at the time, Google had essentially a monopoly on AI.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. They bought DeepMind, which you were on the board of and had an investment in. Larry and Sergey had invested in it as well, and it’s really interesting.

Elon Musk

I found out about it because I told him about it. I showed him some stuff from DeepMind, and I think that’s how he found out about it and acquired them, actually. I have to be careful what I say.

But the point is that Larry’s not taking AI safety seriously, and Google had essentially all the AI, all the computers, and all the money. I’m like, “This is a unipolar world where the guy in charge is not taking things seriously.” And he called me a speciesist for being pro-human. What do you do in those circumstances?

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Elon Musk

Build a competitor.

Jason Calacanis

Yes.

Elon Musk

So OpenAI was created essentially as the opposite: an open-source nonprofit, the opposite of Google. Now, unfortunately, it needs to change its name to Closed for Maximum Profit AI.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Elon Musk

Or Maximum Profit, to be clear—the most amount of the company, the most amount of profit you possibly get.

Jason Calacanis

I mean, it’s— it’s comical when you hear—

Elon Musk

Fate is an irony maximizer.

Jason Calacanis

You have to say, what is the most ironic outcome for a company that was created to do open-source, nonprofit AI? It’s super closed-source. It’s tighter than Fort Knox. The OpenAI source code is locked up tight in Fort Knox. And they’re going for maximum profit. Get the bourbon and the steak knife—they’re ready.

Elon Musk

Yeah. I mean, they’re going for the buffet and just diving headfirst into the profit buffet. Or, at least, the revenue buffet. Profit, we’ll see.

Jason Calacanis

I mean, it’s like ravenous wolves for revenue.

Elon Musk

Ravenous revenue buffet.

Jason Calacanis

No, no, it’s literally like—

Elon Musk

Supervillain.

Jason Calacanis

It’s like Bond-villain-level flip. It went from being the United Nations to being SPECTRE in James Bond land.

When you hear Sam say, “I’m going to raise $1.4 trillion to build up data centers”—what do you think?

Elon Musk

Yeah. No, but I think he means it.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. I mean, it’s audacious, but I wouldn’t want to insult the word. Actually, I have a question about this. How is that possible? In the earnings call, you said something that was insane, and then I think the math actually nets out. You said we could connect all the Teslas and, during downtime, allow them to offer up inference. You can string them all together. I think the math is that it could actually be 100 gigawatts. Is that right?

Elon Musk

If ultimately there’s a Tesla fleet that is 100 million vehicles—which I think we probably will get to at some point—and they have mostly state-of-the-art inference computers in them, each at, say, 1 kilowatt of inference compute, and they have built-in power and cooling and connect to Wi-Fi—

Jason Calacanis

That’s the key. Yeah, exactly.

Elon Musk

Yeah, exactly. And that’d give you 100 gigawatts of inference compute.

Jason Calacanis

Elon, do you think that architecture—there was an attention-free model that came out last week. There have been all of these papers, all of these new models that have been shown to reduce power per token of output by many, many, many orders of magnitude. Not just an order of magnitude, but maybe 3 or 4. What’s your view, given all the work you’ve been doing, on where we’re headed in terms of power per unit of compute or per token of output?

Elon Musk

Well, we have a clear example of efficient, power-efficient compute, which is the human brain. Our brains use about 20 watts of power, but of that, only about 10 watts is higher-brain function. Most of it is housekeeping functions—keeping your heart going, breathing, and that kind of thing. So you’ve got maybe 10 watts of higher-brain function in a human.

We’ve managed to build civilization with 10 watts of a biological computer. And that biological computer has, like, a 20-year boot sequence, but it’s very power-efficient.

Given that humans are capable of inventing general relativity and quantum mechanics, inventing aircraft, lasers, and the internet, and discovering physics with a 10-watt meat computer, essentially, there’s clearly a massive opportunity for improving the efficiency of AI compute. It’s currently many orders of magnitude away from that.

It’s still the case that a 100-megawatt or even a gigawatt AI supercomputer at this point can’t do everything that a human can do. It will be able to, but it can’t yet.

We’ve got this obvious case of human brains being very power-efficient and achieving and building civilization with 10 watts of compute. Our bandwidth is very low. The speed at which we communicate information to each other is extremely low. We’re not communicating at a terabyte; we’re communicating at, like, 10 bits per second.

That should naturally lead you to the conclusion that there’s a massive opportunity to be more power-efficient with AI. At Tesla and at xAI, we continue to see massive improvements in inference-compute efficiency.

Jason Calacanis

Do you think there’s a moment when you would justify stopping all the traditional cars and going completely all-in on Cybercab if you felt the learning was good enough and the system was safe enough? Is there ever a moment like that, or do you think you’ll always dual-track and always do both?

Elon Musk

I mean, all of the cars we make right now are capable of being a robotaxi. There’s a little confusion in the terminology because our cars look normal. The Model 3 or Model Y is a good-looking car, but it looks normal.

It has an advanced AI computer, advanced AI software, and cameras. We didn’t want the cameras to stick out, so we put them in unobtrusive locations. The forward-looking cameras are in front of the rearview mirror. The side-view cameras are on the side repeaters. The rear camera is just above the license plate, typically where the rearview camera is in a car. The diagonal-forward ones are in the B-pillars.

If you look closely, you can see all the cameras, but you have to look closely. We just didn’t want them to stick out like warts or something.

All of the cars we make are hyperintelligent and have the cameras in the right places. They just look normal. All of the cars we make are capable of unsupervised, full autonomy.

We have a dedicated product, which is the Cybercab, that has no steering wheel or pedals, which are obviously vestigial in an autonomous world. We start production of the Cybercab in Q2 next year, and we’ll scale that up to quite high volume. I think ultimately we’ll make millions of Cybercabs per year.

But it’s important to emphasize that all of our cars are capable of being robotic taxis.

Jason Calacanis

The Cybercab is gorgeous. I told you I’d buy 2 of those if you put a steering wheel in them. And there’s a big movement online—

Elon Musk

Putting a steering wheel in.

Jason Calacanis

People are begging for it. Why not? Why not let us buy a couple? Just the first ones off the line and drive them. They look great. It’s like the perfect model. You always had a vision for a Model 2, right? Isn’t it the perfect Model 2, in addition to being a Cybercab?

Elon Musk

Look, the reality is people may think they want to drive their car, but the reality is that they don’t. How many times have you been, say, in an Uber or Lyft and said, “You know what? I wish I could take over from the driver. I wish I could get off my phone and take over from the Uber driver and drive to my destination”? How many times have you thought that to yourself?

Jason Calacanis

No, it’s quite the opposite.

Elon Musk

Zero times. Okay.

Jason Calacanis

I have the Model Y, and I just got FSD 14.1. I have Juniper, and I got the 14.1, and I put it on Mad Max mode the last couple of days. That is—

Elon Musk

Mad Max.

Jason Calacanis

A unique experience. I was like, “Wait a second. This thing is driving in a very unique fashion.”

Elon Musk

Yeah.

Jason Calacanis

It assumes you want to get to your destination in a hurry.

Elon Musk

Yeah. I used to give drivers an extra $20 to do that—

Jason Calacanis

For a medical appointment or something. I don’t know.

Elon Musk

Yeah, but it feels like it’s getting very close. You have to be very careful.

Jason Calacanis

You know, Uber had a horrible accident with the safety driver. Cruise had a terrible accident. It wasn't exactly their fault, except that somebody got hit, and then they hit the person a second time and dragged them.

Elon Musk

Yeah. Yeah.

Jason Calacanis

This is pretty high stakes, so you're being extremely cautious. The car is actually extremely capable right now.

Elon Musk

But we are being extremely cautious and paranoid about it because, to your point, even one accident would be headline news.

Jason Calacanis

Well, probably worldwide headline news, especially if it's a Tesla. Waymo, I think, gets a bit of a pass. I think half the country—or a number of people—would probably go extra hard on you.

Elon Musk

Yes.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, exactly.

Elon Musk

Not everyone in the press is my friend.

Jason Calacanis

Hadn't noticed.

Elon Musk

Yeah. Some of them are a little antagonistic.

Jason Calacanis

People are pressuring you to go fast, and I think everybody's got to take their time with this thing. It's obviously going to happen, but I get very nervous that the pressure to put these things on the road faster than they're ready is a little crazy. I applaud you for putting the safety monitor in and having the safety driver. No shame in the safety driver game.

It's obviously the right decision, but people are criticizing you for it. I think it's dumb. It's the right thing to do.

Elon Musk

Yes. We do expect the cars to not have any sort of safety occupant—or, really, a driver who just sits in the car and doesn't do anything.

Jason Calacanis

Monitor.

Elon Musk

Safety monitor. He just sits in the car and doesn't do anything.

Jason Calacanis

Safety dude.

Elon Musk

Yeah. We do expect that the cars will be driving around without any safety monitor before the end of the year, sometime in December.

Jason Calacanis

In Austin, yeah. I mean, you've got a number of reps under your belt in Austin, and it feels like you guys have done a pretty good job figuring out where the trouble spots are. Maybe you could talk a little bit about what you learned in the first three or four months of the Austin experiment.

Elon Musk

Actually, it's gone pretty smoothly. A lot of things we're learning are just how to manage a fleet, because you've got to write all the fleet-management software, right?

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Elon Musk

You've got to write the ride-hailing software. You've got to write basically the software that Uber has. It's just summoning a robot car instead of a car with a driver.

A lot of what we're doing is scaling up the number of cars to see what happens if you have 1,000 cars. We think we'll probably have 1,000 cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, and probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area.

You have to make sure the cars don't all, for example, go to the same Supercharger at the same time.

Jason Calacanis

Right.

Elon Musk

Or don't all go to the same intersection. There's the question of what these cars do. Sometimes there's high demand, and sometimes there's low demand. What do you do during those times? Do you have the car circle the block? Do you have it try to find a parking space?

Sometimes, say it's a disabled parking space, but the writing or the markings have faded. The car's like, "Oh, look, a parking space. We'll jump right in there."

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, get a ticket.

Elon Musk

You've got to look carefully and make sure it's not an illegal parking space. Or it sees a space to park and it's ridiculously tight, but it's like, "I can get in there."

Jason Calacanis

But with 3 inches on either side.

Elon Musk

Bad computer. But nobody else will be able to get in the car if you do that.

There are just all these oddball corner cases.

Jason Calacanis

Regulators are all very—yeah, they have different levels of pickiness and regulations depending on the city and the airport. It's just very different everywhere. That's going to be a lot of blocking and tackling, and it just takes time. Elon, let me ask you another—

Elon Musk

In order to take people to San Jose Airport, you actually have to connect to San Jose Airport's servers. You have to pay a fee every time you drop someone off.

Jason Calacanis

So the car actually has to do a remote call. The robot car has to do a remote procedure call to San Jose Airport's servers—

Elon Musk

To say, "I'm dropping someone off at the airport. Charge me whatever, 5 bucks." There are all these quirky things like that. Airports are somewhat of a racket.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Elon Musk

We had to solve that thing. It's kind of funny: the robot car is calling the airport server to charge its credit card or whatever.

Jason Calacanis

To send a fax. "Yeah, we're going to be dropping off at this time." But it will soon become extremely normal to see cars going around with no one in them.

Elon Musk

Yeah.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. Elon, just before we lose you, I want to ask if you saw the Bill Gates memo that he put out. A lot of people are talking about this memo. I guess Billy G is not my lover.

Oh man. Did climate change become woke? Did it become woke, and is it over being woke? What happened with Billy G?

Elon Musk

That's a lot. Great question. Great question.

Yeah. You'd think that someone like Bill Gates, who clearly started a technology company that's one of the biggest companies in the world, Microsoft, would be really quite strong in the sciences. But actually, at least in my direct conversations with him, he's not strong in the sciences.

This is really surprising. He came to visit me at the Tesla Gigafactory in Austin and was telling me that it's impossible to have a long-range semi. I was like, "But we literally have them. Pepsi is literally using them right now."

You can drive it yourself or send someone. Obviously, Bill Gates can drive it himself, but you can send a trusted person to drive the truck and verify that it can do the things that we say it's doing. He's like, "No, no, it doesn't work. It doesn't work." And I'm kind of stuck there.

I was like, "Well, it must be that you disagree with the watt-hours per kilogram of the battery pack. You must think that perhaps we can't achieve the energy density of the battery pack, or that the watt-hours per mile of the truck chassis is too high, because when you combine those 2 numbers, the range is low. Which one of those numbers do you think we have wrong, and what numbers do you think are correct?"

He didn't know any of the numbers. I'm like, "Well, then doesn't it seem premature to conclude that a long-range semi cannot work if you do not know the energy density of the battery pack or the energy efficiency of the truck chassis?"

Jason Calacanis

But yeah, he's now taken a 180 on climate. He's saying maybe this shouldn't be the top priority.

Elon Musk

Climate is gay. It's just the climate is gay. That's wrong.

Jason Calacanis

It's totally—

Elon Musk

Bill Gates said the climate is gay? Come on.

Jason Calacanis

Maybe he's got some data he's got to put up. Does he have to stand up a data center for Sam Altman or something? I don't know. What is Azure?

Elon Musk

I don't know.

Jason Calacanis

He changed his position. I can't figure out why.

Elon Musk

The reality of the whole climate-change thing is that you've just had people who say it doesn't exist at all, and then people who say it's super alarmist, saying Los Angeles is going to be underwater in 5 years. Obviously, neither of those 2 positions is true.

You can measure the carbon concentration in the atmosphere. You could literally buy a CO2 monitor from Amazon. It's like $50, and you can measure it yourself. You can say, "Okay, the parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing steadily at 2 to 3 per year."

At some point, if you continue to take billions, eventually trillions, of tons of carbon from deep underground and transfer it to the atmosphere and oceans, you're transferring it from deep underground into the surface cycle. You will change the chemical constituency of the atmosphere and oceans. You literally will.

Then you can argue to what degree and over what time scale. The reality, in my opinion, is that we've got at least 50 years before it's a serious issue. I don't think we've got 500 years, but we've probably got 50. It's not 5 years.

If you're trying to get to the right order of magnitude of accuracy, I'd say the concern level for climate change is on the order of 50 years. It's definitely not 5, and I think it probably isn't 500.

The right course of action is actually just the reasonable course of action, which is to lean in the direction of sustainable energy, lean in the direction of solar and a solar-battery future, and generally have the rules of the system lean in that direction.

Jason Calacanis

I don't think we need massive subsidies, but we also shouldn't have massive subsidies for the oil and gas industry.

Elon Musk

Okay. The oil and gas industry has massive tax write-offs that they don't even think of as subsidies because these things have been in place for, in some cases, 80 years. But they're not there for other industries. When you've got special tax conditions in one industry and not another industry, I call that a subsidy. Obviously, it is. But they've taken it for granted for so long in oil and gas that they don't think of it as a subsidy.

The right course of action, in my opinion, is to remove subsidies from all industries. But the political reality is that the oil and gas industry is very strong in the Republican Party but not in the Democratic Party. So, you will not see even the tiniest subsidy being removed from the oil, gas, and coal industry. In fact, there were some that were added to the oil, gas, and coal industry in the big bill, and a massive number of sustainable-energy incentives were removed, some of which I agreed with, by the way. Some of the incentives have gone too far.

The correct scientific conclusion, in my opinion—and I think one can back this up with solid reasoning; ask Grok, for example—is that we should lean in the direction of moving toward a sustainable-energy future. We will eventually run out of oil, gas, and coal to burn anyway because it's finite. There's a finite amount of that stuff, and we will eventually have to go to something that lasts a long time, that is sustainable.

Jason Calacanis

But to your point about the irony of things, it seems to be the case that making energy with solar is cheaper than making energy with some of these carbon-based sources today. The irony is that it's already working. The market is moving in that direction. This notion that we need to force everyone into a model of behavior is just naturally going to change because we've got better systems.

You and others have engineered better systems that make these alternatives cheaper, and therefore they're winning. They're actually winning in the market, which is great. But they can't win if there are subsidies to support the old systems, obviously.

Elon Musk

Yeah. By the way, there are actually massive disincentives for solar because China is a massive producer of solar panels. China does an incredible job of solar-panel manufacturing—really incredible. They have roughly 1.5 terawatts of solar production right now, and they're only using 1 terawatt per year. By the way, that's a gigantic number. The average U.S. power consumption is only 0.5 terawatts.

Just think about that for a second: China's solar-panel output, maximum capacity, is 1.5 terawatts per year. U.S. steady-state power usage is 0.5 terawatts. Now, you do have to reduce that. If you produce 1.5 terawatts a year of solar, you need to add batteries to account for the differences between night and day, the fact that the solar panel is not always pointed directly at the sun, that kind of thing. So you can divide by 5-ish, but that still means that China has the ability to produce solar panels with a steady-state output roughly two-thirds that of the entire U.S. economy from all sources.

That means that, with solar alone, China can, in 18 months, produce enough solar panels to power the entire United States—all the electricity of the United States.

Jason Calacanis

What do you think about near-field solar, a.k.a. nuclear?

Elon Musk

I'm in favor of—look, make energy any way you want that isn't obviously harmful to the environment. Generally, people don't welcome a nuclear reactor in their backyard. They're not championing, “Put it here. Put it under my bed. Put it on my roof.” If your next-door neighbor said, “Hey, I'm selling my house, and they're putting a reactor there,” the typical homeowner response would be negative. Very few people will embrace a nuclear reactor adjacent to their house.

Nonetheless, I do think nuclear is actually very safe. There's a lot of scaremongering and propaganda around fission, if we're talking about fission. Fission is actually very safe. The U.S. Navy obviously has this on submarines and aircraft carriers, with people really working right next to it. A submarine is a pretty crowded place, and they have nuclear-powered submarines. So I think fission is fine as an option. The regulatory environment makes it very difficult to get that done.

It's also important to appreciate the sheer magnitude of the power of the sun. Here are some important basic facts. Even Wikipedia has these facts right.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. Even Wikipedia got it right.

Elon Musk

Yes. I'm saying even Wikipedia's got these facts right. The sun is about 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter is about 0.1%, and everything else is in the remaining 0.1%. We are much less than 0.1%.

If you burned all of the mass of the solar system, the total energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100%. If you just burned Earth—the whole planet—and burned Jupiter, which is very big and quite challenging to burn, and turned Jupiter into a thermonuclear reactor, it wouldn't matter. Compared to the sun, the sun is 99.8% of the mass of the solar system, and everything else is in the miscellaneous category.

Basically, no matter what you do, the total energy produced in our solar system rounds up to 100% from the sun. You could even throw another Jupiter in there. Somehow, if you could teleport 2 more Jupiters into our solar system and burn them, the sun would still round up to 100%. As long as you're at 99.6%, you're still rounding up to 100%.

Maybe that gives some perspective on why solar is really the thing that matters. As soon as you start thinking about things at a grander scale, like the scale of civilizations, it becomes very obvious. I'm not saying anything that's new, by the way. Anyone who studies physics has known this for a very long time.

In fact, I think it was a Russian physicist who came up with this idea in the '60s, just as a way to classify civilizations: Kardashev scale 1 would be that you've harnessed most of the energy of the planet. Kardashev scale 2 would be that you've harnessed most of the energy of your sun. Kardashev scale 3 would be that you've harnessed most of the energy of the galaxy.

We're only about 1%, or a few percent, of Kardashev scale 1 right now, optimistically. But as soon as you go to Kardashev scale 2, where you're talking about the power of the sun, you're really just saying everything is solar power and the rest is noise. The sun produces about a billion times—or call it well over a billion times—more energy than everything on Earth combined.

Jason Calacanis

It's crazy. It's mind-blowing, right?

Elon Musk

Yeah. Solar is the obvious solution to all this.

Jason Calacanis

In the short term, we have to use some of these other sources. But hey, there it is. An hour and a half. Star-powered. Maybe we've got a branding issue here.

Elon Musk

Yeah. Star-powered.

Jason Calacanis

Instead of solar-powered, it's starlight.

Elon Musk

Yeah. Starlight.

Jason Calacanis

It's the power of a blazing sun. How much energy does an entire star have?

Elon Musk

More than enough. All right.

Jason Calacanis

That's for sure.

Elon Musk

Also, you really need to keep the power local. Sometimes people—honestly, I've had these discussions so many times—say, “Would you beam the power back to Earth?” I'm like, “Do you want to melt Earth?” Because you would melt Earth if you did that. We'd be vaporized in an instant.

You really need to keep the power local—basically, distributed power. I guess most of it we use for intelligence. The future is a whole bunch of solar-powered AI satellites.

Jason Calacanis

But the only thing that makes the star work is that it happens to have a lot of mass. So it has that gravity to ignite the fusion reaction, right? But we could ignite the fusion reaction on Earth now. I don't know if your view has changed. I think we talked about this a couple of years ago, where you were like, “We don't know if or when fusion becomes real here.”

Elon Musk

I want to be clear about my opinion on fusion. I studied physics in college. At one point in high school, I was thinking about a career in physics. One of my sons is actually pursuing a career in physics, but my problem is that I came to the conclusion that I'd be waiting for a collider or a telescope. I do have an actual degree in physics, but I have a strong interest in the subject.

My opinion on creating a fusion reactor on Earth is that this is not a hard problem. Actually, it's a little hard. It's not totally trivial, but if you just scale up a tokamak, the bigger you make it, the easier the problem gets. You've got a surface-to-volume-ratio issue where you're trying to maintain a really hot core while having a wall that doesn't melt.

There's a similar problem with rocket engines. You've got a superhot core in the rocket engine, but you don't want the chamber walls to melt. So you have a temperature gradient where it's very hot in the middle, and it gradually gets cold enough as you get to the perimeter—the chamber walls—so it doesn't melt.

If you just scale up the donut reactor, the tokamak, and improve your surface-to-volume ratio, that becomes much easier. In my opinion, anyone who looks at the math can see that you can make a reactor that generates more energy than it consumes, and the bigger you make it, the easier it is.

In the limit, you just have a giant, gravitationally contained thermonuclear reactor like the Sun, which requires no maintenance and is free. So why would we bother making a little, itty-bitty sun that's so microscopic you'd barely notice it on Earth when we've got the giant, free one in the sky?

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, but we only get a fraction of 1% of that energy on planet Earth. We have to—

Elon Musk

Much less than 1%.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah. Right, so we've got to figure out how to wrap the Sun if we're going to harness that energy. That's our longer—

Elon Musk

If people want to have fun with reactors, that's fine. Have fun with reactors. But it's not a serious endeavor compared to the Sun. It's a fun science project to make a thermonuclear reactor, but it's just peanuts compared to the Sun.

Even the solar energy that does reach Earth is 1 gigawatt per square kilometer, or roughly 2.5 gigawatts per square mile. That's a lot. Commercially available panels are around 25%, almost 26%, efficiency. If you pack them densely, with an 80% packing density—which I think you could get in a lot of places—you effectively have about 200 megawatts per square kilometer.

You need to pair that with batteries so you have continuous power, although our power usage drops considerably at night, so you need fewer batteries than you think.

A rough number that's easy to remember is 1 gigawatt-hour per square kilometer per day. That's a roughly correct number.

David Friedberg

But then doesn't your technical challenge become the scalability of manufacturing those systems? You have to access the raw materials and get them out of the ground on planet Earth to make enough of them to reach the scale and volume you're talking about. Do we have the ability to do that with what we have today? Can we pull that much material out of the ground?

Elon Musk

Yes. Solar panels are made of silicon, which is essentially sand.

David Friedberg

I guess I mean more on the battery side.

Elon Musk

On the battery side, I'd like to throw out some interesting factoids. If most people don't know, what is Earth made of, as measured by mass? Actually, it's iron.

Jason Calacanis

Iron, yeah. We're, I think, 32% iron, 30% oxygen, and then everything else is in the remaining percentage.

Elon Musk

We're basically a rusty ball bearing. That's Earth, with a lot of silicon at the surface in the form of sand.

Iron-phosphate lithium-ion cells use iron, which is extremely common—the most common element on Earth, even in the crust. Phosphorus is also very common. The anode is carbon, which is also very common, and lithium is very common as well.

You can do the math. In fact, we did the math and published it, but nobody looked at it. It's on the Tesla website. It shows that you can completely power Earth with solar panels and batteries, and there's no shortage of anything.

David Friedberg

All right, so on that note—

Jason Calacanis

Go get to work, Elon, and just power the Earth while you're getting implants into people's brains and satellites and other good-fun stuff. Good to see you, buddy.

Elon Musk

Yeah, good to see you guys.

Jason Calacanis

Thanks for stopping by. Thanks for doing this. You have the Zoom link, so stop by anytime.

David Sacks

Thank you for coming today, and thank you for liberating free speech three years ago.

Elon Musk

Yeah.

David Sacks

That was a very important milestone.

Elon Musk

I see you guys are all in different places. I guess this is a very virtual situation.

Jason Calacanis

It's always been that way. I'm at the ranch.

Elon Musk

Are you ever in the same room?

Jason Calacanis

We try not to be, except when we do that summit. Otherwise, we're each in our own places.

Elon Musk

Yeah, your summit is pretty fun.

Jason Calacanis

We had a great time recounting SNL sketches that didn't make it.

Elon Musk

Oh, God, there are so many good ones. We didn't even get to the Jeopardy! ones.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, yeah. Those are so offensive.

Elon Musk

I think we skipped a few that would have dramatically increased our probability of being killed.

Jason Calacanis

You can take this one out, boys. I love you all. I'm going to poker later.

Elon Musk

Take care.

Jason Calacanis

Bye-bye.