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All-In · · 18 分钟

Blake Scholl:飞机速度为何停滞、超音速商业飞行与发动机革命

Blake SchollJason Calacanis

航天与国防能源企业经营技术
YouTube
TL;DR
  • 这场演讲介绍了Boom:公司计划让飞机以Mach 1.7飞行,并已获得主要航空公司的130架订单。 XB-1于2025年成为首架由私人公司研发、突破音障的喷气式飞机,由“仅50名真正投入其中的男女员工”打造,并展示了“无音爆巡航”:大气折射将音爆引向上方,因而永远不会传到地面。Scholl称,美国的超音速飞行禁令始于1973年,并于去年6月6日通过行政命令终止;《超音速合法化法案》在众议院全票通过。
  • 最具交易价值的披露是:Boom的超音速发动机核心拆掉风扇、接上发电机后,就变成一套42 MW的表后数据中心发电系统;由于设计上要在Mach 1.7的高温环境下运行,因此“完全不需要用水”。 Scholl称这是“一个令人难以置信的印钞生意”,并声称“我的收件箱里有数十GW的需求”;首台发动机计划下月运行,之后Boom打算把全部设备拍卖出去。
  • 导致人们宣判Boom已死的Rolls-Royce拆伙——“我做过的最愚蠢的事情之一,就是试图把发动机研发外包出去”——如今在一场“历史诡异转折”中,反而成了Scholl所说的、让这家初创公司具备财务价值的因素。 Boom正从原材料、涡轮叶片一路垂直整合到装配;工厂上周刚造出首批零部件,计划扩产至每年数个GW,并以5年内向电网新增10 GW以上为目标。
  • Overture的经济模型是:以Mach 1.7飞行,3小时往返横跨大西洋,往返票价约3,500美元即可盈亏平衡——“超过这个价格的每1美元,United就能赚到可观利润”。 Scholl的目标是4年;Calacanis给出的粗略可能时间点是2030年。Scholl对此留有余地,称实际日期并不确定,快速推进比可预测更重要。
  • 在陆地上,无音爆巡航可达到约Mach 1.3,即比当前飞行速度快约50%;在水面上,Boom可以全速飞行——达到当前速度的2倍——因为地面上没有人会听到音爆。 Scholl称,这可能意味着早上9:00从纽约起飞,约9:30抵达旧金山;音爆会在“天空中大幅掉头,永远不会触及地面”。
  • 监管速度也是这套投资逻辑的变量:Boom周一突破音障,Elon转发了这条推文,Scholl周二收到西翼邀请,周四一架Boom飞机模型进入椭圆形办公室。 这份行政命令用时115天;Scholl称这感觉很慢,但在另一届政府任内很可能会更久。他强调,超音速飞行不是党争议题,并指出迄今相关表决都是全票通过。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 50人造出了Bezos说车库创业公司不可能造出的飞机

  • 演讲开场先把Boom定位为一家准备让飞机以Mach 1.7飞行、并已获得主要航空公司130架订单的公司。Scholl讲述创业起点:2015年,他还是来自Amazon和Groupon的软件工程师、广告从业者,向自己的前老板Jeff Bezos推介Boom的种子轮融资。Bezos拒绝了,并在Amazon股东信中写道,创业者不可能在一家车库式初创公司里造出全复合材料客机。Scholl说自己“有点往心里去了”;他的路演材料展示了一架用纸板、胶合板和Office Depot座椅拼成的超音速客机模型。
  • 结果是:XB-1成为首架由私人公司研发、突破音障的喷气式飞机,完成了“大公司会动用数千人打造的东西”,而Boom只用了50人。它还完成了首次超音速Starlink安装,视频用iPhone拍摄,并通过Starlink直播。Scholl特别提到一些孩子在课堂上收看直播而不是走神;他预计其中一些人会成为未来的工程师。
  • 对行业的批评也很直接:Scholl称,Boeing最新一款客机就是其第一款客机的碳纤维翻版;演讲还称,Boeing自2004年以来没有推出过新飞机,时间长到Boom的实习生都可能是在那之后出生的。

2. 无音爆巡航消除了地面音爆,也终结了禁令

  • Scholl称,这项技术被“书呆子们”称作“mock cutoff”,利用大气天然的折射能力把音爆重新引向上方。音爆离开飞机时强度大致正常,随后在“天空中大幅掉头”,永远不会触及地面。
  • 在陆地上,这套技术可支持约Mach 1.3的速度,比当前飞行速度快约50%。在水面上,Boom可以全速飞行,即Mach 1.7、达到当前速度的2倍,因为那里没有人会听到音爆。
  • Scholl称,美国始于1973年的禁令在去年6月6日通过行政命令终止,此前总统认同“既然没有音爆,就不应有禁令”。《超音速合法化法案》在众议院全票通过。Scholl还介绍了参议院方面全票通过的进展,同时表示参议院其余部分仍需采取行动;文字稿没有明确参议院具体处于哪个环节。

3. Rolls-Royce风波最终成了皇冠上的明珠

  • Scholl坦言:“我做过的最愚蠢的事情之一,就是试图把发动机研发外包给一家老牌大公司。”与Rolls-Royce公开拆伙后,外界认为Boom已经走到尽头,于是公司从零开始自研发动机,包括自制零部件,直至涡轮叶片。
  • 他的再工业化理念与传统航空业依赖外包、追求净资产回报率的做法“完全相反”;在他看来,这种模式会导致企业把自己的核心资产剥离出去。Boom希望在美国发明下一代制造业,而不只是试图把已经流失到中国的能力重新带回来。
  • Boom首台垂直整合发动机核心正在组装,计划下月装上试验台。工厂将从原材料、零部件——包括叶片和导叶等难度较高的组件——一路做到内部装配和测试。工厂上周刚生产出首批零部件,目标是扩产至每年数个GW,并计划在5年内向电网新增10 GW以上。

4. 发动机的第一份工作是给数据中心供电,而不是装上飞机

  • 拆掉Boom超音速发动机核心前端的风扇,在后端接上发电机,再把整套设备装进几辆拖车式设备里,结果就是一套42 MW的表后发电系统。由于发动机核心原本就是为在高温环境下、全程保持高功率运行而设计,Scholl称它不需要用水。
  • Calacanis追问收入规模时,Scholl称这是“一个令人难以置信的印钞生意”,表示“我的收件箱里有数十GW的需求”,并称Boom会在下月运行首台发动机,随后把全部设备拍卖出去。
  • 被问到Elon是否想把它用于Colossus时,Scholl回答:“你应该去问Elon。”Calacanis把这当成了肯定答复。
  • 对航空业务而言,Scholl称,这款发动机有望成为“有史以来测试最充分的新型喷气发动机”,因为它会先在地面上完成验证。

5. 日期、价格,以及什么才算赢

  • Calacanis要求“给出一个日期和一个数字”。Scholl给出的答案是:以Mach 1.7飞行,3小时往返横跨大西洋,往返票价约3,500美元即可盈亏平衡。他称Boom的目标是4年,但实际时间并不确定:快速推进比可预测更重要。Calacanis提出2030年作为一个粗略可能的时间点。
  • Scholl把Boom的目标概括为安全、舒适、价格可负担,3项全部做到;相比之下,Concord在他看来是3项全零。
  • Calacanis讲起女儿曾期待一枚模型火箭返回发射台,由此引出他对胜利条件的定义:当孩子们需要被告知,过去横跨美国一次要花6小时时,他们会反问:“谁还会那样做?”Scholl设想的未来包括超音速Air Force One、私人飞机,以及面向各个阶层乘客的商业航班,覆盖多个世代的飞机。

6. 华盛顿的政策速度,以及一家成立12年的公司

  • 当Calacanis称这家公司成立快10年时,Scholl纠正道:“实际上是12年。”
  • Scholl称,Boom在周一突破音障,Elon转发了这条推文;他当晚飞往华盛顿,周二便收到西翼邀请。到周四,一架Boom飞机模型已经摆进椭圆形办公室,而且据他说一直留在那里——“有史以来最伟大的产品植入之一”。
  • 这份行政命令耗时115天。Scholl称这感觉很慢,但换一届政府很可能会花更久。他还强调,超音速飞行不是党派议题,并以迄今为止的全票表决为例。

核验说明

  • 文字稿称该法案“在参议院国会全票通过”,但参议院其余部分仍未完成表决;本摘要没有猜测该票具体是在委员会层面通过。
完整逐字稿

set to fly at Mach 1.7 with 130 orders from major airlines. The founder and CEO of Boom Supersonic, Lake Shaw, Boeing hasn't built a new airplane in 20 years. I mean, it's David and Goliath, but Goliath is like asleep. We're here to bring back supersonic passenger travel and ultimately to make the planet dramatically more accessible. This whole airplane was built by essentially 50 people. By 50 people. The moment you become an expert, what you're steeped in is the past and then you're completely useless. Courage is not being fearless. Courage is acting despite the fear. If there's no boom at all, there's nothing to argue about. The world needs supersonic flight. Passengers deserve it. Please welcome Blake Schol.

Blake Scholl

Good morning, Houston. We have a problem. In 1969, we landed on the moon and flew an airliner through the sound barrier. Yet more than half a century later, we can't go to the moon, and we can't fly faster than the speed of sound.

The political legacy of Concord was a ban on supersonic flight over the United States. Boeing brought us into the jet age in 1957 with the 707. But fast-forward to today, and their latest airliner is a literal carbon-fiber copy of their first. By the way, we have interns born after the last time Boeing launched a new airplane, in 2004. This is insane.

Imagine an alternate timeline in which innovation and flight had continued. What if we could cross the Atlantic in 3½ hours? What if Sydney were as accessible as Honolulu is today? What would that do for business, for culture, even for love?

Who could do something about this? Twelve years ago, I was a software engineer and an ads guy from Amazon and Groupon. The idea that somebody with nothing more than a pilot's license could do something about this seemed laughable. In 2015, I pitched my old big boss, Jeff Bezos, on Boom's seed round, and he passed. Then he wrote this in the 2015 Amazon shareholder letter:

“There are certain things that only large companies can do. No matter how good an entrepreneur you are, you're not going to build an all-composite airliner in your garage startup. Not one that you'd want to fly on, anyway.”

I took that a little personally, but I don't blame Jeff. This is what our garage looked like back then. This was actually a slide from our pitch deck. That is, in fact, a supersonic airliner mockup made from cardboard, plywood, and seats from Office Depot.

But big things often have humble beginnings. Fast-forward to last year, and Boom became the first private company ever to build a supersonic jet. Something that the big companies would have put thousands of people on, we did with just 50 really dedicated men and women.

When we flew that airplane, we had the first supersonic installation of Starlink, so people around the world could tune in, watching a video filmed on an iPhone and streamed via Starlink. My favorite part was the pictures that people started sending me from classrooms. Kids who would have tuned out on flight instead tuned in. One of those is a future chief engineer. I guarantee it. Some of them stood up and some of them even jumped up and down.

I'd like to invite you now to relive that moment with me.

Speaker 1

From that fateful moment, the Kittyhawk. We strove to fly higher and faster. This pilot and this airplane are about to be the first ever to fly faster than the speed of sound. Concord showed us the future of passenger flight in 1969. In 2003, we lost all that.

Speaker 2

Good morning. For the last time, Speedboard Concord 2.

Speaker 1

The sound barrier was back. But we are still pioneers, and humanity will always want to reach higher. A small team with a big dream. In 2025, XB1 became the first privately developed jet to break the sound barrier.

Speaker 3

You are go for Mach 1.1.

Speaker 1

But this time, we demonstrated that supersonic flight could be boomless. And now the sound barrier can stay broken.

1. Solving the sonic boom & legalizing supersonic flight

Blake Scholl

Thank you. I thought that would get old, but it never does.

XB1 uses a far simpler technique than others have talked about to solve the sonic boom problem. We call it boomless cruise, and it uses the natural refractive power of the atmosphere to redirect the sonic boom upward. It's like if a tree falls in a forest, but no one is there to hear it: Did it really make a sound?

We talked to the president shortly after breaking the sound barrier, and he agreed that if there's no sonic boom, there should be no ban on supersonic flight. So that ban, which started in 1973, actually ended on June 6 of last year.

But this was just an executive order, and theoretically some idiot could reverse it, right? So we went to Congress and said, “You should make that permanent.” The supersonic legalization act passed the House. Anybody want to guess what the vote was?

It was unanimous. And it got out of Senate Congress unanimously recently, and now we have to get it through the rest of the Senate. I think we should just do it unanimously, right? Because that's badass.

So, okay, it's all full speed ahead, right? We get to look forward to supersonic passenger flights soon. But wait—there was actually a problem. Not that long ago, people declared Boom dead.

One of the dumbest things I ever did was try to outsource our engine development to a big old company. That plan didn't work out, and we broke up with Rolls-Royce very publicly. People said we were doomed.

So we decided to do the thing everyone said was really impossible: make our own engine from scratch to pair perfectly with the airplane. It turns out that effort is actually working. We had an opportunity not just to build our own jet engine, but to reinvent how engines are designed with the world's most advanced digital design tools, and then to change how they are actually manufactured with the power of digital manufacturing.

We're not just designing our own engines, and we're not just making our own engines. We're making our own engine parts, down to the turbine blades. I have one of those with me this morning. My girl was like, “Is that a turbine blade in your pocket, or are you happy to see me?”

Our philosophy is that engineering and manufacturing have to work together. If we want to reindustrialize America, we need to invent the next generation of manufacturing technology here and use that to build the most incredible new products—not just try to bring back what we lost to China.

2. The pivot to powering data centers

As we speak, our first vertically integrated jet engine core is being assembled, and it's going to be in a test stand next month. Things are starting to get pretty exciting.

In a bizarre twist of history, the thing that everyone said would kill us—that we didn't have a big company make us an engine—actually turns out to be the thing that makes a supersonic startup financially valuable.

If we take our supersonic engine technology, which is designed to run for the full duration at high power in a hot environment at Mach 1.7, and take the fan off the front and put a generator in the back, it does this.

Our first application of our engine isn't in the sky. It's actually on the ground, for data centers. We can wrap this up in a couple of trailers and deploy 42 megawatts of behind-the-meter power generation with a supersonic engine core that's designed to run hot, so it doesn't need any water. I think we all know the water thing is kind of an objection, but why not make it go away?

As we speak, we are building, in an undisclosed location, the world's most advanced jet turbine factory. Our philosophy is the exact opposite of what you find at every legacy big company, with lots of outsourcing and a return-on-net-assets philosophy that makes you spin out your crown jewels.

We are manufacturing our own engines at scale, starting from raw materials, then going to the parts—including the most difficult ones, like blades and veins—and then assembling them and running them on our own test stand. The factory you're looking at here made its first parts last week. It will scale to making multiple gigawatts per year, and over the next 5 years we aim to add 10-plus gigawatts to the grid.

As future passengers, we get to look forward to flying faster than the speed of sound—twice as fast over water, 50% faster over land, with no sonic boom—and doing it on what will actually be the most tested new jet engine ever made, thanks to being proven on the ground first.

There are still many, many hard problems to solve. Success is not guaranteed, but I think there's a lot of reason to be excited for a faster future, a more connected world, and American leadership in aviation.

Jason Calacanis

Nicely done, Blake. We're going to talk for a second. Stay here.

3. Jason joins: data center demand, private jets & what winning looks like

So, a couple of questions for you. Really, when can we get on that plane? How much will it cost? Two very simple things. I'm looking for a date and a number.

Blake Scholl

A date and a number. Right. These are my favorite questions. I'm sure your board asks once in a while.

The thing about faster flight is everybody wants it, so long as it's safe, comfortable, and affordable. Concord was really like zero out of three. We should be able to do three out of three.

I'll give you the numbers: Round-trip across the Atlantic at Mach 1.7, 3 hours, and the break-even fare is about $3,500.

Jason Calacanis

Each way?

Blake Scholl

Round trip. No, round trip—that's the break-even. Of course, it will probably go for more than that. But any dollar above that, United's making some good money.

Jason Calacanis

Okay, fantastic.

Blake Scholl

Our goal is 4 years, but I think what I've learned along the way is it's more important to be fast than to be predictable.

How long will it actually take? I can’t say with certainty, but we’re moving as fast as we can, and we’ll make sure that it’s available at the earliest date that it’s physically possible.

Jason Calacanis

So we’re looking at potentially 2030, give or take, Blake, versus, say, Elon timing. When you’re doing the impossible, magical thing, it can take a little extra. You keep talking about over oceans, but my understanding, from when you were on This Week in Startups a couple times early on, was that you’re making it so the sonic boom is going to go away and become like a sonic thump or a sonic pow or something. It’s going to be a lot less.

Blake Scholl

It’s actually a sonic nothing. There are 2 different techniques that people use for boom mitigation. The one we’re using is called “boomless cruise.” The nerds call it “mock cutoff.” The boom comes off the airplane—it’s kind of a normal-strength boom—and it makes a big U-turn in the sky and never touches the ground.

That works up to about Mach 1.3, or 50% faster than how we can fly today. You can’t go full speed boomless, but you could still go fast enough that you could leave New York, say, at 9:00 a.m. and land in San Francisco around 9:30 a.m. So it’s still going to be pretty great. Over water, you can go full speed, but no one’s there to hear a boom.

Jason Calacanis

This is the key. I think everybody wants to know the New York-to-Los Angeles or San Francisco time. How is the data center project going? Do you have customers for this product already? And how many? How much is coming in?

Let’s talk dollars here, because building the Concord is quite expensive, as Mr. Bezos pointed out to you, but this seems like a money-printing business. Is it printing money?

Blake Scholl

It’s an incredible money-printing business. I’ve never seen demand like this for anything else in my life.

Jason Calacanis

How many orders? Give us 10 customers.

Blake Scholl

There are tens of gigawatts of demand in my inbox. We’re going to run that first engine next month, and then we’re going to auction it all off.

Jason Calacanis

Did you talk to Elon about it? Is he interested in it for Colossus?

Blake Scholl

You should ask Elon.

Jason Calacanis

Okay, that’s a yes. Good enough.

Do you ever think that, as a name of a company for an airline, “Boom” might be tempting the fates? I have a punch-up for you: How about “Zoom”?

Blake Scholl

No one’s ever asked me about this before.

Jason Calacanis

It’s like Boom, and then you’re there. It’s fun.

Blake Scholl

We called the company Boom because I thought the sonic boom was never going to be the blocker. Boom is the company, and the airplane is Overture. We wanted an innovative brand for the company and something for the airplane itself that would have real gravitas.

Jason Calacanis

There are some individuals who might look at this and say, “Any chance at a private aviation option in the 2.0?” Is that a good business for you to be in—to provide, you know, compete with Gulfream and Falcon?

Blake Scholl

I hope the private-jet guys will make a supersonic jet. They should. If they don’t, I guess we’ll do it.

Jason Calacanis

Let’s talk about the future. I’ll tell a story. My youngest daughter, who’s 4 and a half now, watched rocket videos when she was 18 months old. When she was 2 and a half, I took her to watch a model Estie's Rocket. I’m just the person I am, so I got the smallest little rocket and put the big D motor in it. That thing went up and ended up in a tree 3 fields over.

I thought it was pretty cool, but she was upset. It took me a moment to realize why she was upset: She expected the rocket to come back to the pad. I had done nothing but watch rocket-landing videos with her—literally, her entire life.

Blake Scholl

What I realized is that, for supersonic, there’s an analogous thing. We will have won when we’ve sped up flights for every passenger, from the president on a supersonic Air Force One to a supersonic private jet to supersonic commercial flights that are available to every class of passenger.

When you have to convince kids that it used to take 6 hours to cross the country and they’re like, “What are you talking about, Dad? Who would even do that? New York’s not worth it if it takes 6 hours to get there?”—that’s when we’ve won.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Blake Scholl

That will take many generations of airplanes, but we’re not giving up.

Jason Calacanis

Final question: The company’s now getting close to 10 years.

Blake Scholl

12, in fact.

Jason Calacanis

12, in fact. Yeah, okay, so you’ve passed it. You’ve had to work with multiple administrations. It’s not a political show most of the time. I mean, when Trump’s ratings are high, it’s a political show. If they go low, we talk a little less about it.

Talk about how this administration has compared to the last one in terms of embracing what you’re doing. This is pretty exciting, that you’ve been able to make such quick inroads in terms of regulations, and that it’s a big issue for your company specifically.

Blake Scholl

I think, first off, it’s really cool that supersonic flight is not a partisan issue and that we’re able to get stuff through Congress unanimously. That said, I love how fast this administration moves.

We literally broke the sound barrier on Monday. I tweeted about it, and Elon reposted my tweet. I flew to D.C. that night to start the legalization campaign. By the time I landed, I had an invitation to the West Wing. So that was Tuesday.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Blake Scholl

By Thursday, our airplane model had made it to the Oval Office. By the way, it’s still there.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah.

Blake Scholl

It’s one of the greatest product placements of all time. There’s a supersonic jet model in the Oval Office. I kind of love it.

Then it took 115 days to get the executive order signed. To me, that felt slow, but it probably would have taken longer in a different administration.

Jason Calacanis

Yeah, I think Biden’s going to call you back in about 2 or 3 weeks from when you called him 8 years ago.

Blake Scholl

Yeah.

Jason Calacanis

It’s a joke. Sounds fast. It’s a Biden joke.