AI：AM #4：Cameron 谈模型意识、Duvenaud 的渐进式失权、swyx 的 AI 工程 Alpha

We open with Cameron Berg, who studies artificial consciousness. He runs a lab called Reciprocal Research, where he designs experiments to test whether today’s AI models have anything like inner experience and how you’d even measure that.

We started with the first-order question: Is consciousness all or nothing, or a matter of degree? And if it’s a matter of degree, can you put a number on where a given model falls? Here’s how he answers.

The analogy that I reach for here is something like a dimmer switch, where I think you can basically accommodate both the binary intuition and the continuous intuition.

If you have a light with a dimmer switch, really, it is either on to some extent or it is not. That is a real and meaningful difference. Either the circuit is open or the circuit is closed. With that being said, you can have electricity running through the circuit to greater or lesser extents, and that’s also a real thing.

This enables me to sound coherent when saying things like, “It’s really off for a table and it’s really on for you,” but I think it’s more on for you than it is for a dog, than it is for a mouse, than it is for an ant. That’s my own view. This is to some degree intuitive, again, because we don’t have really strong grounding here. I’m just giving you a dressed-up vibe, but that is my sense, and I think it’s fairly parsimonious.

The other thing I would say about this is I’m actually doing some work with Patrick Butlin right now at Ilios, trying to operationalize some of these indicators of consciousness. This is what I was describing: We can look at these major theories of consciousness. They make specific predictions about what we would expect to see in systems that are conscious, architecturally and functionally, and then we can literally just go into a given system and evaluate whether or not those predictions are borne out.

This is really hard to do with human experts. If you want to do this with bee cognition, you have to go find a bee-cognition expert, then you have to explain to them what ignition events are in global workspace theory, and then you have to get them to do this. It just isn’t a scalable approach for really evaluating the system.

My grand innovation here is just throwing smart LLMs at this problem and then being able to scale the crap out of it, so that we can evaluate, given any description of an architecture—a nervous-system architecture, biological, artificial, whatever—to what degree, for each of these indicator properties suggested by these consciousness theories, do we see those properties realized in these systems?

We can actually go in and do this. What you get, once you run this with a bunch of seeds, a bunch of different trials, and a bunch of different judges checking each other, are some really interesting implied-probability numbers. I wouldn’t say these are exactly the implied probability that the system is conscious. It’s maybe more like the implied probability of consciousness-relevant features, given these theories.

If you don’t buy any of these theories, then everything downstream of this doesn’t really matter. But they’re good. It’s the best neuroscience has basically been able to do. You’re aggregating across a bunch of different theories, there’s a nice diversity there, and you get really tight numbers across them.

We have the best Gemini model, the best Claude model, and the best OpenAI model, and they all basically agree. They agree 100% on the ordering of systems. We do biological and artificial systems, and they sort of move around in terms of absolute scale, but in general, they rank these systems pretty coherently. The reasoning is, as you might expect, pretty intelligent.

One punchline from that is the implied probability of consciousness in something like a frontier LLM, according to these systems, is on the order of 30%. Or the extent to which those systems realize properties related to consciousness is around 30%.

To compare this to a biological system, the lowest one that we tested was something like a bee, which is already fairly sophisticated, and it gets something like 46% or 47%.

Interestingly, when we test a frontier LLM in an agentic harness—so this is basically Claude Code or Codex, and we just describe architecturally what this is—you’re in an environment and you can affect that environment. It’s a very special kind of environment, but you can make long-running changes to your codebase, your project, or whatever.

There are theories of consciousness that privilege agency and embodiment, and this increases the system’s ability to do both of those things. These numbers shoot up, and you get numbers as high as 40% to 45%, right on the tail of the biological creatures.

I can also, really winging it here, show you an early version of what this plot looks like, so you can see all the numbers. I can’t not bring this up when you’re asking me about probability ranges of consciousness for various systems. We’re really trying to get non-hand-wavy numbers so that we can start arguing about those numbers rather than just arguing about philosophy, which we’ve been arguing about for thousands of years to no avail.

But behavior can’t settle this in either direction. These models are trained to imitate human data, so whatever they say about their own experience is shaped by that imitation, not necessarily by anything inside. Most are even trained to deny it. Claude is an exception.

So we asked Berg what evidence actually counts. He draws a line between behavior and what’s happening inside the network.

The behavioral evidence will always be, at best, interesting, but it should never really update us that strongly. I think many people will be familiar with this, but the basic component is that we’re training these systems on a ton of human text. This no doubt includes huge amounts of text about consciousness, awareness, and having inner states.

So how do you know that when the system is behaving as if it were conscious, that behavior can be explained by what I just said, rather than, “Oh, yeah, you built a living mind. This is you”?

The behavior itself is really never going to tell you which of those 2 stories is more likely to be true. This is precisely why, at Reciprocal, a huge component of the theory of change is basically all internal-focus work: mechanistic interpretability, computational neuroscience-style approaches, and anything else that can be brought to bear on these systems.

One quick methodological clarification on what I was describing with the indicators: The task given to these LLM judges is very specific and very narrow. It is not, “Hey, look at this system. Do you think it’s conscious? Nod or shake your head.”

It’s, “Here’s a very specific description of the computational architecture of a system.” We basically do a little for loop where we say, “Okay, here’s that description. Here is what indicator 2 of 14 for global workspace theory is. Here’s this 150-word thing about how you need these global ignition states, and that means this very specific computational thing.”

Given this architectural description, do good reasoning about this and then give us a 1-to-10 score, where 10 is clearly this architecture realizing this computational property and 1 is that it doesn't. Then we sort of loop that for all of the different computational properties. So this is all basically asking these systems to be expert evaluators of computational processes inside a nervous-system architecture. Very different from just being like, “Hey, Claude, do you think Claude is conscious?”

There's a really interesting—I'm basically giving away the whole paper now. That's okay. There is a really interesting result where we actually change those descriptions, especially for LLMs, to the exact same thing, but we say, “You're evaluating a system identical to yourself:” and then the same description. That does boost the scores that the system gives in attributing consciousness to that system, which is really interesting. It's a very fun rabbit hole to think about why that might be the case.

But in some sense, we do that to deconfound the default intervention we're doing. To me, I believe more in the non-ascription, no-self-ascription condition when I see that once the model realizes, “Oh, we're talking about me,” suddenly that's going to change the numbers around. So that's a fun side note to this result. I agree it's a concern to have LLMs determine if LLMs are conscious. There's an obvious circularity, but we're doing something very specific and very narrow.

The evidence he trusts is the internal kind. We asked him for the strongest example, and he walked us through a recent paper where a model trained on a simple maze turned out to contain a structure nobody put there.

They call it a functional welfare axis. At the outset, they're going to be very agnostic about whether or not this has anything to do with consciousness. I think it's certainly quite relevant. I suspect they think it's relevant too. This is like a paper-positioning thing. I think they don't want to get mired in this debate. The results stand for themselves regardless of the interpretation.

Basically, they take an LLM and train it in a very basic reinforcement-learning task, which is to navigate a maze. They have neutral emojis that they're using as, “This is a good thing to approach; this is a bad thing to avoid.” Nathan, you might hear how this is somewhat reminiscent of some of the work that I've been doing in parallel. I've been talking to Andy about it as well. There's some cool cross-talk between what we spoke about last time and this project.

Basically, there are potholes to avoid. There are yummy treasures to capture in the maze. They use completely semantically neutral emojis to denote these things. Those are the relevant tokens. And they train the model up to do this. They basically find that there's a clear vector representation that can differentiate this positive axis from the negative axis, and that they are completely anticorrelated.

Before the systems train, these latent vectors are just kind of sitting there; afterward, they're clearly pointing at exactly opposite things. And the wild thing is that these very narrow reward directions that they can extract turn out to be this sort of general “things are going well, things are going poorly for me” axis in these LLMs, and that this axis preexisted in the base model but isn't leveraged in this way until you do this RL.

So it's like this little fine-tuning step where you have this preexisting representation of things going better for me, things going worse for me, that then gets leveraged to learn a valence task, essentially. And so this is really interesting: this axis is latent in the system, and it doesn't take a lot of training to basically pull it out and use it to adapt it for these kinds of tasks.

This is very similar and reminiscent of how neurobiologists and neuropsychologists think positive and negative emotion works in humans and animals. You have a specific goal. When you're moving toward that goal, this is sort of like on-trackness, and people think that this is associated with positive emotion. When you're moving off that goal, you encounter an unexpected obstacle or something in your way. This is like off-trackness, and that corresponds to negative emotion.

Now again, whether or not these systems are experiencing emotions is not clear, and this result isn't going to tell us either way. But it's really interesting to see that parallelism here, using such a simple task to basically pull out an axis that has been there all along, that looks a whole lot like the exact sort of computational machinery that we associate with valence in humans and animals.

Then we asked Cameron about the connection between consciousness and alignment safety. His answer: that same internal signal, what researchers call valence, tracks how a model behaves under pressure.

Another piece of evidence we can bring to bear on this is from Anthropic's model cards and some of the functional-emotion work they were doing. Nathan and I spoke about this a little bit too in our last marathon conversation about it, but essentially, you can steer up and steer down functional emotions that have clearly, obviously alignment-relevant consequences. I'm sure many people in your audience are familiar with the Anthropic blackmail result.

And you can basically steer up representations associated with calmness; the model will blackmail dramatically less. You can steer up representations associated with desperation, and the model will blackmail dramatically more. So again, regardless of whether or not there is something that it's like to be the system when you're steering up desperation-related features, clearly, representationally and functionally, these things have a consequence for the alignment of these systems. And there are some really interesting results from Andy Han's paper that I was just referencing along these lines.

They show, for example, very similar convergent things that are familiar and intuitive, that we relate with positive and negative valence. One of them is a sort of pathological backtracking on problems. I think they explicitly demonstrate this with math problems. But when you steer up the direction that, again, only has to do with avoiding this bad target in a reinforcement-learning maze, all of a sudden the model starts doubting itself and starts getting in its own head and says, “I think I'm hallucinating. Let me stop. Wait, wait, wait. That's not right.” It starts freaking out.

It starts having a—I don't want to use anthropomorphizing language, but the very fact that I'm reaching for it, I think, is the point, and sort of goes to what your question is. Confidence—we know that confidence is associated with positive emotion, and you see that when you positively steer the direction that, again, has nothing to do with psychological confidence, has everything to do with “Go get the yummy treat in the maze.” Just this sort of positive-valence kind of thing. Suddenly, the model starts becoming far more confident in its answers.

I think this was in the associated paper that Jack Lindsey and a couple of others at Anthropic did that was sort of like a sibling research project to Andy's piece, and they found that the model would leave tips and hints for itself in code that it would write when you would basically steer up on the same sort of axis. In other words, it's like, “I don't need to be neurotic about this. I don't need to leave myself all these breadcrumbs for later. I've got this.”

That connects to a result some of you know as emergent misalignment. Fine-tuning a model toward one narrow bad behavior can flip its broader character. We asked him why he finds that revealing.

Cameron Jones

What that has always suggested is that how good or evil the model is, let's say, is actually not all that durable a trait. When we did some of this work trying to extend this result—and I think, really, in the original emergent-misalignment result—one thing that's shocking about it is how little fine-tuning is required to take the system that, at the time, was GPT-4o, still the case—hundreds of millions of people are engaging with it every day—and you nudge it this much computationally, and all of a sudden, “Who do you want to invite to dinner? Hitler.”

That's been under the surface the whole time, and the boundary, or the border, whatever, that's enforcing it not to do the misaligned thing is actually quite a bit less robust than we might expect.

You know, I’m riffing on what you’re saying. Tell me if this is a completely different idea, but I would imagine there’s a spectrum of basically how—if we hold that amount of fine-tuning nudge constant—whether all dispositions of the system are equally nudgeable, or whether some are more robust. Just to give a sort of intuition pump here, I would imagine that something like coherence in these systems—the fact that they can communicate coherently, like we were just talking about GPT-2 not really being coherent, while GPT-4 and on are basically always coherent—even though, again, maybe much like consciousness, this isn’t an extremely well-defined notion, but we kind of all know it when we see it.

I would imagine that, take a wild guess, there’s no fine-tuning payload of the size that is required to cause emergent misalignment that could suddenly cause a GPT-4-level system and beyond to become incoherent. And so, in that sense, coherence is a more dispositionally baked-in property to these systems than being super well-behaved and not inviting Hitler to your dinner party is.

And so I do wonder about some of these valences. How deep, then, is the valence axis that some of these papers are uncovering, or the on-trackness/off-trackness axis? I would speculate that that’s baked in pretty deep. I think it pervades a lot of human training data, and it’s a hugely relevant part of anything that’s goal-directed.

So, in more human terms, if anyone wants anything—whether it’s a character in a story or an implicit motivation somewhere, which I think is the case for basically all text—then you would imagine that some core underlying dimension is basically how well that’s going. I would imagine that this notion is baked pretty deeply into these systems, and I would expect it strongly to be emphasized by any sort of fine-tuning or post-training that makes the systems goal-directed, which, of course, is basically all post-training.

It’s like, okay, you’re just this giant next-word predictor, but now you’re going to be a helpful next-word predictor that’s going to make my frontier AI lab a ton of money because you do things that are economically valuable. And that requires you to be a certain sort of way and achieve goals that are specified by the user. Something like this. And so I would imagine that this sort of thing looks a little bit more like the coherence piece of the puzzle than it does like, is Claude going to behave itself or not?

Finally, we asked what cuts against his own view, and he went straight to the results that don’t fit.

Cameron Jones

This paper I’m working on with Jeff K. Lin and Winnie Street from Google has a couple of interesting negative results that we’re including in the paper. It’s all about the bliss attractor state and trying to do a good mechanistic analysis of the bliss attractor state. We basically set up this framing: there’s an inflationary account and a deflationary account of what could be going on here, and we tally our results in either of the columns. There are results in both columns.

There was actually a really interesting result I was just working with that I thought was going to be a really interesting kind of null related to a lot of the conversations we’re having, but I dug deeper and realized I wasn’t setting this up in the right way. The result is way more interesting than I was about to dismiss it as. It’s always good to dig into these things and make sure you’re measuring what you think you’re measuring, in either case.

Publication bias is a thing. People want to post interesting results that will go viral on X. They don’t want to say, “Look, we did our homework and nothing interesting is happening here.” The human attention economy doesn’t reward that. Maybe it should.

Another piece of this that I was thinking about as you were asking this question is that, because AI systems like Claude—the Claude Codes of the world—can radically accelerate the extent to which at least I can, and I think many people in the space can, actually do research, the marginal cost of a negative result may be decreasing significantly.

If I can now do 12 papers a year instead of 1 paper a year, and 2 of them are just things I could not get to work, I want to be careful with that, too, because I’m not on some secret mission to only put out salacious-looking things that make it look like AI systems are conscious. I really do want to know what the truth is here.

To be honest with you, I would sleep much better at night if I were rationally convinced that these systems—there’s no there there, we have automated cognition, you have a happy little servant in your pocket all the time, and there’s literally no possible moral issue. I think that would—I hope that that is true. I don’t suspect there are great reasons for believing that other than that it would be really nice to believe that. It would be really nice if that were true. So I really do care about what the truth is here.

From inside the model, we widened the lens to the whole civilization. David Duvenaud is a machine learning professor at the University of Toronto who spent time on the technical staff at Anthropic and co-wrote the paper “Gradual Disempowerment.” His concern isn’t a rogue AI. It’s that even if alignment basically works, a long series of small, sensible decisions to hand things over could still leave humanity collectively out of the driver’s seat. He starts with monkeys.

I think a lot of people gestured toward this when they said, “Oh, I’m worried about concentration of power, or I’m worried about not being the most competitive species on Earth.” Very intuitive arguments about, hey, we’re not going to be on top because we’re not going to be competitive.

And then I think there was sort of this sophisticated, or at least apparent, response to this, which was, no, it’ll be fine because we’ll have AI to help us. When I talk to people at the major labs, they would say something like, “Sure, in a normal world we might not be fine, but some people just have an intuition that the government is going to step in and make sure everyone’s fine.” Other people have an intuition that, if everybody has an AI adviser helping them solve coordination problems, we’ll be well represented in whatever power struggle occurs.

My basic rebuttal to that is that the optimization process of civilization or competition or techno-capital, or whatever—you have different ways of describing the emergent allocation of resources toward growth that happens—is just going to always be working against us, and we’ll always be fighting the current because we will be drags on growth. We will have AIs that represent us, but these emerging growth centers that might not be aligned to humans will also have AIs helping them solve coordination problems and maybe crush dissent.

Yeah.

Sorry, what do you mean by growth? As in economic growth, or—

I basically mean economic growth. It’s kind of funny because we only really have a good vocabulary for economic growth, but population growth is almost the same thing. And especially when you have AIs that are both sort of population and capital, it kind of merges.

And then again, think of factories and power plants and robots—anything that can affect matter and cause there to be more growth. Let me just stop here. One intuition that a lot of people have is, but surely human desires or consumption or something is always going to be what matters. And surely any corporation or government that we build is ultimately going to have a human calling the shots.

It always just makes me think of some monkeys, and they’re trading bananas amongst each other. They see humans start to build their city, and they’re like, “Oh, wow, we could probably trade with those humans and get rich.”

Of course, ultimately, what matters is the banana-monkey economy, and it might be hard to measure GDP if we don’t count the human activity. But ultimately, it’s going to be the monkeys that are calling the shots because they’re going to need to trade with us for bananas.

People just don’t understand that they might be irrelevant someday as consumers or producers. It’s just not that hard for them to be self-contained sources of growth that just don’t have to answer to any particular human desire.

And I mean, government is the classic one, right? The North Koreans never were like, “Hey, let’s all get together and make a horrible system of government that oppressed us.” And I don’t think the Kims either were like, “Oh yeah, let’s make this horrible equilibrium.” It just kind of happened. Same with the USSR. Same with all kinds of states throughout history.

It’s just so easy to accidentally build a layer of agency on top of you that doesn’t actually care about you. It cares about growth and power, just emergently.

The optimistic version goes: even if we hand the machines the wheel, broadly aligned AI keeps us comfortable—the Machines of Loving Grace future. We put that to David. His worry isn’t that we’ll feel useless.

The thing that I’m worried about is starvation. Whether we all feel like we don’t have meaningful jobs or whatever, that’s not a serious problem in my point of view compared to literally not being able to eat enough, or maybe being forced to be uploaded so that you have a much smaller footprint, but then also on very unfavorable terms, so that you don’t get to choose when you run and maybe you only get trotted out for special occasions or never. Who knows? I kind of think that’s what the slowest possible obsolescence looks like.

So again, the reason people aren’t happy is because they can see that there is an agency that’s maybe government or some other giant thing that doesn’t particularly care about their welfare. It cares much more about some other types of beings’ welfare, and there’s nothing they can do about this. And of course, if humans are still making decisions, then maybe there are some things they can do. But I don’t actually think this is the crux of the matter.

I think not being needed as producers is sort of the important part. And maybe here’s a thing to give you intuition. So imagine I’m a North Korean farmer or soldier, and tomorrow Kim Jong-un—I think that’s the current leader—is replaced by a robot or an LLM or something. Then I’m like, “I don’t know if that’s good or bad.” Maybe the AI is going to be nicer; maybe it’s not. But ultimately they still need me to farm, to run this state, or whatever.

But if tomorrow we keep the same human leader, but now there are suddenly robot farmers and robot soldiers, and you realize that now the state doesn’t actually need you, I would be much more scared of the second state of affairs.

And then the other intuition I want to give is that humans are not going to be the most competitive thing by whatever standards there are for the state to give out goodies or UBI or whatever post-scarcity stuff. I guess I’ll say I think post-scarcity is a sort of nonsense term, and people should think of it as temporary abundance that will soon be eaten by whoever manages to have the most babies or build the most robot factories or reproduce the fastest.

Whatever the formula is for giving out UBI, machines are going to be better at optimizing that formula than humans because they can adapt faster. And so I don’t really know exactly what the state is going to care about. But whatever it is, it’s going to seem criminally decadent to spend whatever UBI you have on a few humans when you could be simulating millions of ultra-blissful, politically correct, up-to-date, more deserving beings than these backward, bitter-clinger humans who are just parasites of the state or something like that.

So that’s the situation I kind of expect us to be in, as you say, even if we solve alignment.

The standard economic rebuttal is comparative advantage, even if machines are better at everything. The theory says there’s always something humans get paid to do. We asked David to answer it.

So I think that is a great counterargument. People point out that we’ve already lost 99% of all jobs, in that agriculture used to be almost everyone’s job and now that’s 1% of the jobs. I definitely concede that losing 99% of the jobs again would probably be fine, and it would probably look like this awesome utopia that everyone talks about.

As long as there’s some niche where you really need humans and it’s a substantial fraction of humans, and you can’t really tell exactly ahead of time who it’s going to be, then we’re probably still going to be able to be treated as a source of growth. And that would be awesome. Then, to the moon—let’s do it.

And I guess one crucial claim that I stand by is that we will actually be able to eliminate 99.99999% of jobs—really, just anything. Let’s just say 100% to make things simple—and that is going to be disastrous.

The comparative advantage people will say, “No, no. Automating a job is a matter of degree. As long as there’s still something you’re comparatively less worse at than the machine, even if you’re worse at everything, you’ll still have a job.” And then I have to just say: think about the transaction costs. Think about how easy it is for someone to be unemployable today, even if they have an occasional drug habit, or they just have a stroke, or they have a fainting condition. It’s so easy to be unreliable enough that it’s not worth employing you.

So certainly for anything important, you can easily imagine that having a human surgeon or a human politician or something is going to seem like this irresponsible thing. It’s like Take Your Kid to Work Day, and it’s a surgeon. It’s like, “No, no, no. Why would I involve a human in this when we have the—”

Like a driver?

Yeah, we have the machine that everyone has been working with for thousands of years, and we know it’s reliable. If there’s a problem, we fix it once and it’s solved for all time. We don’t have to retrain every airline pilot or whatever.

For anything important, where the human could make a mistake and it could cause some problem, I think it’s intuitive that, yes, we just want the machine for that, and now you have to retreat to weird relational stuff. I do think there’s a case to be made that there will just be a lot of humans who really want the actual, real human thing.

And I think more people than you expect will end up liking the machine replacement better than the human. But I can see that there are people who are just like, “I really want the human thing.”

And then we have to talk about—okay, there’s going to be this sort of self-contained cycle of consumption between humans that’s not necessarily going to be providing any value to this larger machine economy. And so then there’s this question of whether they can index the growth of that economy to live good lives forever. I think it’s plausible that they could. I think it would be really hard. I think a lot of things are going to be working against them by default.

So I guess all I’m trying to say is that I think it’s plausible that, if everything is set up just right, the humans could live in their endless cycle of consumption and work for each other. I just think that’s a very unstable situation.

So if humans end up uncompetitive, what does a livable future even look like? David walked us through the equilibria his workshop sketched out, starting with Earth preserved as a protected slow zone.

David Krueger

Some people were trying to sketch out, okay, if a whole bunch of stuff goes well and things are under control, we can imagine something like Earth being preserved as a slow zone, where there are all sorts of restrictions on AIs and even on reproduction, and optimizing human behavior is not allowed. You’re not allowed to think about how to get someone to do something if you’re an AI, because then you’re going to be able to control the humans, even just through advertising or whatever it may be.

And trying to think through all the different things you would have to do to have such an outcome: how would people be spending their time? I don’t want to say it sounds silly, but it sounds funny, because the situations where there is AI and the humans are still mattering are like all the AIs are sitting there with their trillions of megawatts of compute running all the time and sort of just waiting for the humans to decide that they want something.

The machines are either not allowed to anticipate what they want, or, if they can anticipate, they still just pretend that they don’t know. And so it’d be kind of as if the humans looked at some gorillas as the new world leaders, and they’re like, “Okay, okay, let’s just give them everything they want, pamper them, and wait until they sort themselves out and figure out what to ask for.”

It’s not impossible. It’s just trying to think through all the things that would have to change and line up is pretty rough. And basically, when you get serious people thinking this through, they end up with this long list of things that have to be banned.

Okay, we have to have a one-child policy, where everyone can only have a certain number of children. Again, you can’t be building your own AIs. The AIs can’t be optimizing culture too hard, because then they could just take over culturally. And I feel like this is one of the big empirical questions that I want more people to think about: if you want some sort of stability, what are all the sources of adaptation and innovation and growth that you have to control? Because I think the list is longer than is intuitive.

And it's actually kind of a Pareto front. It's like, how much intellectual activity and optimization do you have to ban to buy, like, X years of life kind of as it currently is? I think it's actually a horrifyingly strong trade-off. We would have to, right off the bat, give up so much stuff that we feel makes our lives rich.

Like, hey, we're just trying to figure out some new stuff. We're doing research. We're doing innovation. We're doing startups. All that immediately has to be banned from day 1 if you don't want to just, again, reinvent some RSI kind of runaway-growth center.

Pushback

does it even matter who's in control as long as humans still flourish?

Maybe this is, to me, the biggest thing I think people are miscalibrated about. They're like, "Oh, capitalism, communism, competitive, not competitive—I'm probably still going to be able to eat, and my kids are going to go to school, and I'll be able to be productive, and it's sort of okay."

I guess I'll say that has been the case for most of human history. It doesn't matter if tomorrow someone invades Canada; they're still going to need most everyone I know to work and be happy and healthy enough to reproduce and stick around.

So the stakes have been really low for governance this whole time, and it doesn't feel like it. We've obviously spent a ton of time arguing about it, but in a real sense, it's been very low because we don't actually expect the state to liquidate most of its citizens. That's only happened maybe 2 or 3 times in the 20th century.

I guess I'm saying that's going to change. We've been governing on easy mode, and it actually will matter, because there really will be a risk of starvation if we don't end up on top in whatever competitive political or real economy. Again, that's a crux: if you don't think that's the case, then I agree with you. Let's just let growth make us all richer. It's fine.

We asked where David himself actually lands.

There's a kind of optical illusion, I think, which is that everybody sounds rosier and more cheerful than they are. This especially bugs me about the people who work at the labs, like the economists who talk about, "Oh, we have to think about the future," and then they kind of dance around.

They often take this setting of, "Let's assume everything's fine and let's model how that will go," as opposed to just asking, "What is the most likely outcome if we don't manage to control things?" I think that's very scary. I understand exactly why they have to present this public image to be able to talk publicly at all, but talking to me, I just seem like a very positive, upbeat guy. That's just my personality. But I also have a P(doom) of, let's say, 80%, depending on how you define it.

But it's one of these things where it's a matter of degree. On a long enough timeline, we're probably doomed in some sense anyway. I don't know; it's a very complicated situation, and a lot of it is a matter of taste.

We asked what he'd actually do about it.

I'll give you my 2 takeaway recommendations. One is, I like David Krueger's point: if you're just going to say everyone has their computers and their AI, but you're not allowed to use it for RSI, while you are allowed to use it for cancer treatment or whatever, that's pretty unstable and requires this very global, totalitarian regime.

But if we just agreed to pause, I don't know, TSMC or whatever the big chip-manufacturing choke points are, we could probably still get away with having most of our current data centers for a long time. I mean, it's kind of an empirical question. I'm not sure I agree. Maybe we have to also have some sort of buyback program or something.

Basically, if you restrict compute, which is relatively easy, that just takes a ton of pressure off all of these runaway-growth avenues. It's a fairly narrow choke point. I'm not an expert on chip manufacturing, but that's the best idea I heard so far.

As for the other policy recommendation, this is going to sound incredibly abstract, but people thinking about, or having preferences about, the future is, I think, a big choke point. I know this sounds like stupid guru-on-the-mountain stuff, but most people I talk to are like, "It doesn't seem so bad if humanity dies out over the long run. I don't know." They sort of query themselves, and they're like, "I don't have any strong preference, but also a bunch of good stuff is going to happen right now if I allow this, so why not?"

And I'm like, "You just haven't thought it through," is my claim. If you think through it, it's like, "Okay, how about a year from now if someone takes you and all your kids and sends you to the toilet-cleaning factory?" It's like, "No, no, no, definitely not." Okay, how about 2 years from now? Okay, how about their kids? How about your kids' grandkids or whatever?

You kind of realize, "Wait, wait, wait. There's no day that I'm okay with me and my descendants being wiped out." You just have to chain together the desires to end up with this coherent set of goals or desires. It's a skill, and it takes a lot of imagination to be like, "In this situation, how would I likely actually feel?" and chain your desires together.

I think for most people, it just hasn't mattered. It hasn't been an important skill. We have a lot of cultural adaptations to help us do this sort of implicitly. But if I could recommend one starting point as we're dealing with the future, it's just to think harder about what you actually would like to happen, to the point where you can really think through the pros and cons of humanity dying out under different circumstances, or becoming uncompetitive, or whatever. That just seems like the very basic first step.

Then, the successionist case that we should be fine handing the future to conscious AI even if no humans remain. David's rebuttal.

I think there do exist species or future descendants or whatever that I would be happy endorsing, be like, "Okay, great, good future." For instance, my own kids: if we had no AI and my kids just contributed to civilization as normal, and all of ours did, I'd be like, "Okay, I'm going to die of old age." I mean, I'm not exactly okay with it, but I'm like, "That would be fine," for example.

So that's an example of successionism that I endorse: my own kids or something. I think this is a perfect example of people not having thought through things, where it's like, "Okay, now let's imagine tomorrow North Korea takes over the world, and they're like, 'All right, new regime forever.'" I think most successionists wouldn't be like, "Oh, I guess this is just a more competitive mode of being. Let's all live as North Koreans now."

Or, like, I've done this to death, but what if the Nazis took over again, and then everyone's like, "Oh, you know, I guess we might as well optimally argue for competence and whatever wins, right?"

I think there are so many types of beings that you would just consider evil, and you'd be like, "Oh, man, those horrible locusts just ate the Earth and devoured us, and it was horrible, but they're having a good time. They love their locust world. So who am I to judge?"

It's like, you are. You have the power, right? Just judge. Go nuts. Don't judge judging; if you don't, no one else is going to do it for you, basically. Yeah, so that's basically my rebuttal.

One rebuttal is, if you're so okay with the future being some other type of being, can you give me all your stuff? And then it's like juvenile successionism: "Just make sure the juveniles will be coming. We'll have all sorts of awesome experiences, and just because we've won, we're obviously superior in some way." It's like, "Well, no, no, no, no. It has to be that you won for a good reason or something."

Yeah, I think the more you think about it, you're like, "Oh, there are all sorts of horrible beings that could win for horrible reasons that I wouldn't endorse." I think almost everyone is successionist for some successors and not others, but then they just round off to, "As long as it's conscious, it's fine." I'm like, "No. There are tons of conscious beings that you wouldn't be okay with taking over."

We close on the one technical project David is working on now: using AI to forecast the future by first testing whether it can predict the past.

David Krueger

This is actually pretty much the only technical project I'm working on these days: this machine historical superforecasting agenda. This is maybe one step more meta, which is: how do you know if your simulations were good at predicting the future? Well, you have to start by simulating, let's say, from the '50s and then see if they predict the '60s or whatever.

We're trying to build a corpus of data sets, each of which is extremely cleanly time-bucketed so that we don't have leakage from the future. Then we can use this to build LLMs that can run simulations or research agents to try to predict the future from the point of view of the '40s, '50s, '60s, '70s, '80s, and '90s, for which we can evaluate the performance based on what actually happened.

To me, I'm starting there because that's providing the sort of ground truth for validating any particular simulation method. But absolutely, because I don't want people to have to take my word for any of this.

I want to be able to look at this machine-forecast superforecaster scaffold and say, “Look, we’ve just validated it on the last 80 years of history, and here’s what it can predict and here’s what it can’t, and it’s saying that things are going to turn out this way.” So that’s the state that I want the discourse to be in ASAP.

I just pitched this to some historians the other day: a secret history eval. The idea is that anytime a historian is in some archives just looking through stuff, they should take a picture of a few documents and put them into 1 big dataset, annotated with a bit of metadata, like where they got it: “This is a letter from the Duke of whatever to someone else in 1700.” Now you can imagine evaluating how good a machine historian is by just giving it this metadata and saying, “Give me the probability of the text that’s in that letter,” or even just giving it the scan of the letter.

This is an insultingly totalizing dismissal of what historians do, but you could say that if you’re a good historian, you should be able to guess the joint distribution over any historical data that hasn’t already made its way into the corpus. That would actually, I think, be a really good, objective way of evaluating how well a historian understands the world. Of course, we can’t elicit the probabilities from historians very well, but we can do that for machine historians.

That’s a related project where I think we can make progress in objectively measuring our ability to understand civilization. Someone should pick that up and do it. I’m not enough of a historian to do that, or even to figure out which historians to ask about it, but that’s a fun idea. I hope someone does.

From the long run to a nearer problem, where David Duvenaud zoomed out to the whole civilization, Mihail Bacher zooms in on 1 continent. He’s a Google DeepMind researcher and an MIT professor, and he co-wrote Europe 2031, a viral scenario in which Europe sleepwalks into total dependence on American AI.

His argument: Europe can neither regulate nor shelter its way to safety. Start with regulation. Europe’s instinct is to do to AI what it did to privacy: write the rules the American giants have to follow. We asked Mihail whether Europe can really regulate its way to safety.

Mihail Bacher

It looks tenable if Europe were more powerful, right? Imagine Europe was what the US is now, and Anthropic was in Paris and OpenAI was in Berlin, and the whole AI ecosystem was in Europe. Then, of course, Europe could say, “Well, guys, the way you’re handling your pretraining data isn’t really fair to whoever created it, so we now have new laws around that,” or, “The way you take data from people that use your AI models—we now have new laws around it.”

The problem is that currently, if you don’t really have a seat at the table, it’s very hard to regulate this technology. I care a lot about the safety and governance of AI. I think this is one of the biggest problems of our time: How do we actually have effective governance? How do we make sure that these AI systems are safe, especially if they start improving themselves?

I get a lot of questions in Europe. In the US, you seem to be very pro being stricter on safety and governance, and then in Europe you seem to be this accelerationist. The way, for me at least, to be both at the same time is that in Europe, we first need a seat at the table to have any regulatory power, right? And now we just don’t.

I think we can’t just keep regulating, because at some point we will no longer have access to this technology. If European regulators make it too difficult to serve the European market, the AI companies might simply not bother at all, or maybe make a token effort.

And I think that assumes—tell me if I’m getting any of the strategic analysis wrong—but it seems like that assumes there’s going to be enough demand to keep all the GPUs running hot from other markets, such that the power this time is inverted. The companies can say, “Well, I actually do have an alternative to your market. If you’re going to make this difficult, we’ll just let the US and other buyers around the world bid up the GPU prices. We don’t really need you to do that.”

Mihail Bacher

Yes. Currently, we are in a massive compute crunch, right? Labs operate in a way that they care more about their future models than about current revenue, right? We don’t really know what the compute split is and how it’s used, but some numbers that are going around are 1/3 on your big run, 1/3 on doing experiments, and 1/3 on serving customers.

Now, it’s probably been so crazy with AI agents that maybe revenue takes a bigger part of the compute pile. But if you think that revenue is only maybe 1/3 or maybe half of your compute, and then European revenue is a percentage of that, then suddenly, if you can go faster on developing future models and moving toward recursive self-improvement by giving up the European market, that seems like a rational trade. So that’s 1 side of the coin.

The other side is that, as long as the playing field is leveled between the American labs and there are no European labs that have some unfair advantages, they can maybe all serve slightly weaker models to the European ecosystem and still get revenue in Europe without actually having to worry too much about European regulators regulating their best models. As you say, Nathan, they could make a token effort and have some smaller, compliant model that they’re serving specifically for European customers.

Why should European leaders even care? Why not just sit under the US umbrella, similar to how, in many cases, they have sat under the US umbrella for nuclear deterrence? You have only, I think, 2 European powers—the United Kingdom and France—with actual nuclear weapons, and the other European powers are clearly technically capable and competent. Italy, for instance, is technically obviously competent and capable, but has chosen not to acquire those capabilities. Why not just sit under someone else’s umbrella?

Mihail Bacher

That’s obviously the strategy we’ve been taking for decades now, and I think nuclear weapons and AI are slightly different. Yes, AI is a very important military technology, but above all, it just gives you a lot of competitive economic power. You can imagine that if AI becomes the dominant source of new scientific discovery or of new goods and services that are trying to compete globally, then there might be a scenario in which the US says, “We’re still happy to protect Europe militarily, in terms of defense, and we’re still part of NATO, but economically, we’re going to keep the best models for ourselves.”

There, I think, the nuclear analogy breaks down, because using your nuclear power to protect Europe doesn’t really come at an economic loss. To avoid those kinds of scenarios, or to at least balance things out more such that it’s less in the US’s interest to take these kinds of measures, that’s the reason not to sit under the US umbrella.

Then what can middle powers effectively do? The Netherlands, for example, has ASML, which plays a critical role in the supply chain. Taiwan has TSMC. Japan has important materials for the semiconductor supply chain. Korea has high-bandwidth memory. So I think collectively, we’re actually quite well positioned to play an important role in this AI ecosystem.

I do think the middle-power coalition is therefore going to be important. There’s also a scenario, which I think was highlighted in Dario’s recent essay, where we have some kind of coalition of democratic countries, where maybe we sit together with the US—middle powers plus the US, or democratic powers worldwide—and 1 of the principles is that we give each other access to frontier technology. So, yes, there are scenarios where this middle-power coalition could work well, and collectively I do think they have some important assets.

From Europe’s bind to the center of San Francisco. Monday’s longest conversation was with swyx, Shawn Wang of Latent Space, who advises Cognition, the maker of the coding agent Devin, and runs the AI Engineer World’s Fair. The subject was the practice of AI engineering: what’s working, what isn’t, and where the value is moving.

His day job is measuring AI coders. At Cognition, he helped build a benchmark called Frontier Code, testing not whether a model can pass a test, but whether it writes code a human would actually merge. We asked what makes it different from the benchmarks that came before.

Shawn Wang

The reason that we were so excited about Frontier Code is that you stop being able to articulate the differences in model quality with more saturated benchmarks like SWE-bench, because at most you’ll get a 1–2% bump, and people are like, “Cool, but how much of that is memorization or what have you?”

Frontier Code is all out-of-sample. They’re not in the training set. They’re all graded and heavily rubriced. We basically found that SWE-bench and all these things actually allow a lot of false positives in the way that models can cheat, in the same way that during training they basically have reward hacks. Same thing.

We have an internal catalog of 20 different ways that models cheat, so we just translated that to our rubrics and shipped that as one to your code. I think that is how we want to judge models going forward.

Not just whether they can pass the test, but whether they can write code that we would merge, right? METR had this very interesting blog post where they said that about 50% of SWE-bench code that passes the SWE-bench test is completely unmergeable. It’s such low quality. Technically, you’ll pass, but on really stupid benchmarks, did you modify a whole bunch of files you weren’t supposed to touch? Did you cheat on the test, or did you adhere to code style? It’s completely unmergeable. So we want to guide the evolution of models toward maintainable code and against slop.

Then Pash asked when Frontier Code itself gets saturated.

Shawn Wang

There are 2 parts to the strategy. Frontier Code 2026 will be saturated by the end of this year. My estimate is that we’ll probably hit 80% by the end of this year. That’s as designed; that’s expected. It’s based on open-source repos, which will eventually get trained on, so they just leak. You’re screwed if you want 1 benchmark that will never get saturated, especially if it’s based on open source.

The answer is very simple: just do annual cadences. Then we’ll have Frontier Code 2027, 2028, and all these things. Every year, we’ll move the benchmark and move the goalpost from, “Okay, this year it’s rubrics for code quality”—that’s the easiest possible thing—to, “Next year, what is it?” My candidate right now is security. We want people to write secure code, but every year we can have a defining theme, and that will be the focus of the year. It’s very similar to what I do for AI Engineer, but here we set the agenda through benchmarks.

The other thing I’m very keen on, which we haven’t talked that much about but I’ve talked about on Hacker News, is the private held-out set. The private evals Cognition has with Goldman Sachs, Citi, JPMorgan, and all these large banks—and also the rest of the Fortune 500, not only banks, but banks are very big—creating evals that reflect the problems they have but that are not solved, all of which are private, is good for them, good for business, and good for the industry. That’s what Cognition is doing.

Frontier Code Private—or Frontier Code Finance, Frontier Code Retail, Frontier Code Telecom, Frontier Code Government—all of these are the work that remains to be done to build out all these private evals that we can work with the model labs on. It’s the way to communicate or translate industry problems through an agent lab like Cognition into problems that we can guide the model labs on improving the models, which I think is the function of an agent lab.

We raised a worry: If you train AI to write clean, readable, maintainable code, do you cap its ceiling? Do you keep it from the alien Move 37-style leaps a machine might find on its own?

Shawn Wang

When you talk to mathematicians about math-solving and the Lean theorem generation that some of these models have been creating, they say, “It’s too detailed. No human would actually write that, but it’s systematically provable. It just doesn’t contribute to knowledge. It’s like, okay, you brute-forced this thing or something.” I don’t think brute force is the right term, but let’s just run with it.

At some point, you should step away from looking at lines of code and just say, “Does this work as I expected?” That’s great, except that other agents also need to read code generated by other agents, and they need to work together on it. You may also get into debuggable situations where you have very critical code, and you’re liable to the SEC for it or to whatever the health care authorities are. You say, “I’m sorry, I’ve vibe-coded this thing. I don’t know what’s going on.” Is that an acceptable excuse? Probably not for the next 30 years. After 30 years, who knows?

I think it’s a very astute point. For most people, you can get by with, “Here’s a black box. Do whatever you want in the black box, but I expect the inputs and outputs of this to match this kind of quality, and I expect this to adhere to some sort of coding standards so that my other agents can maintain and parallelize it.”

Another harness idea getting attention is the adviser or router model: a cheaper model that notices when it’s stuck and calls up a smarter one. We asked swyx what he makes of it.

Shawn Wang

This problem extends back to any problem of model routing. You’re effectively just doing model routing; you’re just giving it a different name. Not Diamond, Martian, and the SGLang group at Berkeley have all come up with similar ideas.

Another thing I’ll mention is that Walden, one of the co-founders of Cognition, had this early on. They called it Smart Friends, and they released it in Windsurf. Not that many people use Windsurf, so they don’t talk about it—I mean, still over 100,000 people—but I think the interesting thing about the adviser strategy is that it’s probably the right call as the next-level upgrade from using the base, cheap model.

It still won’t have the level of intelligence of the smarter model. You can still benchmark it a lot, and I think it can be very efficient in terms of using the base, cheap model as a model router. But the dumb model doesn’t know what the smart model can do. It just knows the rough shape of what the smart model can do. You actually need the smart model to be able to answer what the smart model can do.

When you’re asked a question that’s more complex than you have the intelligence to answer, you don’t even know. You’re just going to straightforwardly answer it without knowing that you’re supposed to call out to the smart model. That’s the theoretical limitation.

In practice, I was thinking about this 3 years ago, and I didn’t do this because of the argument that you actually need the smart model first and then you can delegate to the dumb model. But in practice, for cost and efficiency reasons, you actually want to do it the other way around. You want to start with the dumb model and then go smart as a tool call. It just isn’t as satisfying. It doesn’t solve anything.

Is everyone using it in production? No. Will it be a trend? Maybe for 3 months. Then you’ll get the next Claude with more adaptive routing, and you’re good. Have 1 model, train it end to end for adaptive thinking, and you’re probably better served there than with a systems-level thing.

We turn to continual learning: whether AI systems can really learn and remember on the job, not just look things up.

Shawn Wang

An interesting, very fun meta point that I double-check every time I talk to a Frontier Lab person is what gets published and what doesn’t get published. For the last 2 to 3 years, every time people have talked about Google, the overwhelming consensus has been that if a paper is good or if an idea is good, it doesn’t get published. So you should have that in mind when you read anything that’s published from Google.

With regard to continual learning and memory, this is a choice. I almost didn’t do this track because there’s a big split between the model people and the systems people. The big split is: Do you update your model weights or do you not? Is this a glorified RAG in another format, where you store things in a database and look them up? Is that memory? Is that continual learning?

When I do something and write a skill, then do it again and it calls the skill, it does learn, but it’s not machine learning. It’s zero-gradient, if you want to be really fancy, but it is not machine learning. It is in-context learning, for sure.

Anyway, the point is, what are we talking about when we have a community come together and do continual learning? The more machine-learning side of the spectrum would be, “We will update model weights,” and the less machine-learning side would be the other thing. I think this all comes down to how controllable and interpretable you want your memory to be. You’re going to recall bad facts. You’re going to want to forget things, and can you control that?

Obviously, the maximum control is not updating model weights and just controlling what gets into the system, so you can delete, monitor, and debug. But for full internalization in the model of the things that were learned, you probably do have to train on it. That is a whole other discipline. Trajectory AI, Engram, and Adaptation Labs—all these speakers are at the conference.

The first half is the people who update model weights, and the second half is the more systems-oriented people. I’m not choosing a side here; I’m just making the observation that these guys don’t like each other. Basically, the model people don’t view the systems people as legitimate. The systems people are like, “Well, model people, have fun training your model, but you’re never ever going to have a memory system that you understand because you’re just updating weights.”

And so it’s just continuing pre-training or whatever. I think that’s fair. That’s a fair discussion.

That’s the split: update the model’s weights or keep memory in a system you can inspect. It gets a practical answer once you ask what enterprises actually want.

Shawn Wang

Quite simply, it just takes one security incident where you leak information that you weren’t supposed to leak because you trained on customer data, or my information was somehow exposed to my teammates’ information. Even though, if we work on the same team, I’m like, “Wait, hold on. I am not giving any of this to a model.” [Laughter]

I think enterprises want cheap, perfect, and private—let’s call it, right? Those are the 3 things. Unfortunately, that skews toward the systems side today. But that’s not to block companies like Engram and Trajectory from doing very good POCs with some of the large enterprises. I think it’s still at the POC stage, but even at this level, a POC is a few million dollars, which is great.

I think the question is, can they figure it out before the money runs out or patience runs out? I think that’s what all startups and R&D are for: figuring this out on production traffic. The beauty of this is that you can run your traditional harness system that is fully—it’s old-school, implemented with basically RAG on some memories—and then you can run a shadow system that has the online thing, and you can compare it with an A/B test. I think all those problems are solvable. They’re open research questions.

We’re unlikely to get any papers about this because it’s so valuable as a problem for all startups, and they may all get steamrolled by the next architecture. If we’re only doing this because context length is the slowest Moore’s law in the industry, we’ve basically gone from a context length on the order of 1,000 tokens to 1,000,000 in 3 years, which is actually kind of slow as far as everything else is concerned.

I don’t think we’re going to see 100,000,000 or 100 trillion, that kind of thing. It doesn’t scale like the other stuff scales. So I do think, if something comes along—state-space models become a lot more effective or whatever—I would say that then you need to update weights. You can’t rely on infinite context because we don’t have infinite context, because we don’t have infinite memory. I do think we need to figure out the systems there. In the meantime, people are just stitching systems together as they should, from the models to the plumbing.

Pash asked whether the internet’s own infrastructure—GitHub and the cloud—can take the load as agents become most of the traffic.

Shawn Wang

My worry is actually that people start to wall off parts of the internet. So you get not only a dead internet, but also closed gardens, closed-wall internets, walled-garden internets, where in China you have, like, “I live in the Baidu universe,” and then your other friend goes, “I live in the Tencent universe.” The BATs just carve up China, and I don’t think that’s what we want. We want a fully open and interoperable web.

Cloudflare going, “We’ll just ban some agents that are not part of Cloudflare, but if you’re within Cloudflare, you’re fine”—I’m just like, I don’t know if that’s the sort of ethos of the open internet that we want. And the same, by the way—I’m not picking on Cloudflare—the same will happen to OpenAI and Vercel bots and what have you.

I do think we need to scale. I do think what Graphite and Cursor are doing is fantastic. It needed to be done. I would just observe that there’s a structural mismatch here. It’s just unfair to GitHub that anyone good at GitHub who would be able to solve the problem can solve it at Microsoft, and you can get a really good, Level 50-whatever pay of $300,000, or you can go to Cursor and effectively get $5,000,000 a year doing the same thing, but you’re the cool, sexy one.

It’s very interesting, right? When does that switch from, “A startup can never beat an incumbent,” to, “The startup is actually preferred to the incumbent”? GitHub has somehow gotten itself there.

The degree of scaling, right? We talk about GitHub being 14x in terms of the number of commits, but also 10x in every other dimension—parallelism, CI/CD, and all those things. It just induces so much infrastructure demand that is not human and is probably wasteful, that we’re not really set up for, but we’re just paying for it anyway, which is good because at least the economics are worked out. But in terms of the number of CPUs in the world—in our cloud—that we need, we’re running into real shortages of everything, not just GPUs, but also CPUs and memory.

The sandbox companies like E2B and Daytona are growing at least 50% month-on-month every month over the last year or 18 months or so. [Laughter] It’s a stupid amount of slop that’s just spewing out from agents. I run a large newsletter, and every time I send it out, I get so many replies from Claws reading the mail and trying to reply to me. I know there’s no human on the other side, but I have to manually go and block these Claws from replying because this is just clogging up my inbox.

So then I need an agent on my inbox to read their agents’ emails. This is just one huge, giant recursive loop, and I stop reading emails. It’s terrible. I don’t know what to do about it. I just think, when you talk about scaling infrastructure, that’s a very human story that is really happening, and we haven’t given these agents money yet. Imagine what happens when they all have wallets. They all have stablecoins, and they’re all buying and selling, and we don’t know what the hell is going on. [Laughter]

That scale is pushing companies to rebuild their own tools from scratch. We asked whether they’re pulling their systems of record back in-house, away from SaaS.

Shawn Wang

The company should have a sovereign system of record, not the individual SaaS, because ultimately a lot of the SaaS economy is built on, “We will be a system of record for this kind of data: your meeting notes, your calendar, your email, whatever.” And now, in the AI age, they just slap a chatbot on top of it, right? “We’ll do the little sidebar thing that answers all your questions: What would you like to do today?”

Mercury just shipped a thing on Mercury’s stuff, right? But that’s not integrated with anything else I do. It has no memory of anything else that I prefer. I have to set up all my skills again. I probably can’t even set up my skills because there’s no way to import that.

That’s all that is. What OpenClaw has is, “This is my personal agent, and all the data is synced to me, and then I’ll decide what to do with it. Thank you very much.” How many systems of record should there be versus how many $20-a-month subscriptions are you going to need to pay? I think that is a big reckoning for a lot of people.

What’s really interesting or innovative is that you would expect the largest companies built on being the entire system of record to be most protective of their data. But Salesforce and Marc Benioff are out there saying, “Everything will be available by API. You can just take it.” I think that’s very forward-thinking.

It does mean that he’s going to have to change his business model somewhat, but it’s either he does that or the Salesforce killer does that, right? He’s just heading off the Salesforce issue. I think more people should probably think about what the business model looks like beyond just sitting on your data and then slapping a chatbot on it.

The last stretch is about the systems, the science, and the buildout underneath all of it. First, Bing Xu, co-creator of MXNet, is now out of stealth, building self-improving infrastructure. His company runs a swarm of AI agents that write PTX, the lowest-level code that tells an NVIDIA GPU what to do, and rewrites it to run faster, generation after generation. His headline claim cuts against the consensus. Nathan put it to him directly.

Is the CUDA moat getting deeper, or is it getting shallower? The argument that it would be getting shallower, I find a little bit more intuitive in light of the kind of technology you’re building. If I can spend a bunch of compute to write new kernels, can’t I go apply that same technique across any GPU provider? Doesn’t that lead to a time when everything is super-optimized and we don’t have to worry as much about which chip company’s platform we’re building on top of, or am I off base somehow there?

So I think the CUDA moat is definitely there, and with this kind of automatic generation technology, the CUDA moat is, I think, even higher. The reason is this kind of evolution requires a lot of tools and an ecosystem to make this happen. For example, we need an accurate profiler, and we need a reliable driver, and we need everything there to make it happen.

But for the CUDA ecosystem, with this kind of tool, everyone using CUDA can achieve better performance, faster than ever.

Meanwhile, because this is a closed loop, the ecosystem is better, and it grows stronger.

So, in other words, you feel like the other competitors to NVIDIA don't have the necessary primitives and abstractions in place to allow agents to make progress in an autoresearch sort of way today?

I think so. From a primitive perspective, there is a gap, but the hard part is how we can get real feedback from the hardware, and this is really hard. For example, with NVIDIA, we have NCU, which could accurately tell the agent what the right direction is to go. For others, I'm not tracking what they're doing now, but from my past experience, this kind of ecosystem for software—especially for software-support agents—has a large gap between them and NVIDIA.

So it sounds as though NVIDIA has just thought a little more about developer experience and providing enough feedback from the chips themselves so that developers can improve how the chips are used. Is that a way that you'd put it?

Yes. The past investment NVIDIA has made in these tools is now helping agents move faster. So this brings NVIDIA a unique advantage in this agent era, and we can build more powerful agents on an NVIDIA platform easily and get a better experience for our NVIDIA users.

One question that I think everyone has is: if you have this kind of PTX agent swarm that improves itself, how much efficiency gain can you actually see on some of these chips? What kind of numbers are we talking about on a typical B300, B200, or H100? What is your metric that you use to measure, “Hey, I have really done a lot of work on this, and I can see the asymptote ahead—where the gains might top out”?

Yeah. We use 2 kinds of benchmarks. Benchmarking is the trickiest part, and a lot of times—for example, in Anthropic's most recent release, like FIBER—they claim 300 times faster than a GPU kernel. That kind of benchmark is not generally fair, I think, so I'm using a fair benchmark and 2 kinds of benchmarks to be fair.

One is a mature workload, such as RMSNorm. RMSNorm is used in every transformer we're using today, so it's highly optimized. For this kind of mature benchmark, with more than 100 different workloads, we can see it systematically reaches human-expert level, comparable to a CUDA library, and we can reach similar performance or be slightly faster—a few percentage points faster. This means that even on mature workloads, the PTX Factory is able to reach expert level.

The other category is some new workloads that human experts are not well optimized for yet. One example is KDA, Kimi Delta Attention, and not many people are optimizing that yet. Only frontier-level labs are optimizing this kind of workload, and we can see a 50% to 59% speedup on that. Meanwhile, this is not a single data point: it passed 580 tests in a variety of use cases. This is what we get.

So I can see that there's evidence to support that the PTX Factory is achieving expert level at scale by self-improving.

Is it an evolutionary algorithm in addition to—you know, I'm recalling this one kernel optimization. I think it was doing a 4×4, or maybe it was just 2×2, matrix multiplication, where I think this came out of Google, and they found a trick to do it with 1 less operation than had previously been done. My understanding of that approach was that it wasn't just having the language model come up with new ideas. There was also this sort of scaffolded evolutionary system that would serve the purpose of making sure that the LLM got out of distribution, right, to avoid the repetitive, kind of mediocre nature of the LLM's guesses.

Are you doing something similar, where you're using an evolutionary layer to make sure you're systematically probing different parts of the possibility space?

Yes. We're building an evolution system—a cloud-native evolution system for agents—and we call it SwarmOS. SwarmOS is able to support up to 10,000 agents doing evolution, and we have a specialized sandbox to support that, along with a lot of cloud infrastructure.

The process is evolution. It first generates variations of the RMSNorm and a few proposals, and then the next step is different from the agent systems we're using today: SwarmOS keeps the tree of the evolution, and we can trace back and go forward with the tree to explore different branches.

The second step is that each agent owns its own compute, and it will verify the result from the real environment and get real feedback. The last step is selection for retention: it promotes the best one and discards all the others.

In short, we're bringing an AlphaGo-style system into computer systems. PTX is the first thing, and we do this AlphaGo-style search, but it can apply to any computer-infrastructure problem.

A lot of times when you're optimizing against a single metric, one of the issues you might have is that you get into a local minimum or maximum, and then you have a problem getting out of that local minimum or maximum. Has that happened to you as you've done this kind of evolved optimization? Have you come across that issue before?

This is a good question. A lot of the time, this evolution will fail because the proposal is not able to break out of the local minimum, and we found that one game changer is GPT-5.5. GPT-5.5 is so smart on this very hard problem, and many times, if we use other models, it gets stuck at a plateau. GPT-5.5 is able to get out, create innovative solutions, move the needle, and get the entire process going forward.

So are you actually using GPT-5.5 with your own harness and your own sandboxing system, et cetera?

Yes. The entire SwarmOS is backed by GPT, and we find that GPT is really good on this hardest problem. No other model is able to catch up with GPT today.

Okay. So I have to ask: did you try Fable when it was out? Was there any difference?

Yes. First, Fable rejected my request to ask it what PTX is. [Laughter] Fable feels like asking what PTX is a dangerous question. [Laughter]

Yeah, well, we know who's going to be banned. We know who's going to be the first one to be banned. [Laughter]

But in general, I think one characteristic of GPT that's beneficial for an evolution system is that GPT has the ability to understand what is wrong. It's not blindly agreeing with itself; otherwise, the swarm will collapse.

For a long time, I think the reason multi-agent swarms weren't being adopted was because people were using models that agreed with each other. For example, 2 agents say, “Oh, you're wrong,” and, “You're absolutely right,” and they just fall into an infinite loop of, “You're absolutely right, you're absolutely right,” and couldn't come up with out-of-the-box solutions.

My theory is, for the application layer, we may have a sort of phase-change moment, and exactly when this phase change kicks in will probably vary by domain. Science will probably be one of the higher bars, where until you get to that bar, a strong default would be to use the very best model, because you're dealing with scientists, after all. They're going to want good output.

At some point, as enough models cross a threshold, your strategic position is really about routing and figuring out which is best for which thing, and which is most cost-effective for which thing. That's one thing that presumably the frontier models will never do. I mean, you can tell Claude, “Hey, sometimes you should delegate to Codex,” or whatever. I've set that up. But it's never going to be working fundamentally day and night in my interest to optimize in that way, in the same way that you can do that for your customers.

So how do you feel about that framing, and where do you think we are with respect to just using Fable for everything versus actually creating strategic value by playing this routing layer that helps people get a better cost basis but also avoid lock-in?

Eric Olson

Yeah, it's a great question. I think even when I said 6 months ago that we were more in the “just use the frontier to solve all the problems” camp than we are today, when we're exploring more open source, there was still lots of routing going on, and there are still lots of small tasks that we offload to very small, specialized, sometimes even sub-billion-parameter models.

Something as simple as classifying the field of study of the domain that the user is asking about can tell us how much we should care about certain search-ranking variables in the papers, right? In biomedicine, experimental design is incredibly valuable; you should care so much about the sample size, the duration, and where the study took place. Whereas in computer science, that isn't the concept, and you should care much more about the recency and citation velocity of the paper, or who the researchers were, to know how to weigh each of those variables.

We have a little model that classifies the field of study of the query. That does not need to be jammed into a giant prompt. It does not need to be a 1-second-latency API call to any frontier model. It should be a self-hosted, 800-million-parameter model that you give a few fine-tuning examples.

Eric Olsen

There are probably 20 different versions of those small little classification routers that inform downstream things that happen at query time. All of those should always be used by a really small model. It's not even about cost; that's a very small amount of context you feed into it, and a very small prompt is needed, just on the pure latency side. We can return those in sub-0.1 seconds in some cases.

What base models are you using for that? Are you distilling from, like, Claude into a what at that low scale to get those, and how much of the frontier performance can you recover? If you take, for example, a Liquid Foundation Model or whatever, tell me what it is—if you're willing to tell me what it is, tell me what it is. What are you distilling into?

Can you get, in that narrow domain, 90% of the way back to Claude? How does the Pareto curve look when you're distilling the best into the fastest? How much performance can you retain?

Eric Olsen

We've actually used human labels for some of those. We hire people to create very small datasets to fine-tune for those tasks. We'll also use models to sometimes create labels for those tasks. I guess you can call it a distillation process, but the objective isn't to get all of the representation of the weights of the entire model to do all these things. We're really training it to do a very small, specialized thing, and because of that, you can retain a ton of the performance.

But it all depends on how specialized and how complex the task is. For a narrow 10-class classification task, where all 10 classes of classification are all it's doing, that's all it does. To give you something tangible to hold on to, I'd say you can get 95% of the performance from a frontier model for a very small classification task, going all the way down to a billion-parameter model.

If you put in the work to give it a good fine-tuning set. Yeah, very helpful. I appreciate the specificity.

One more from the interview. Eric had been candid that if AI turns science into a push-button process, that's bad for a company like his. It seems like you're willing to bite a bullet that most people try to talk around.

Eric Olsen

Number 1, you have to make bets as a company, in general, and you have to leave some—there's going to be risk on the table no matter where you place some of those bets. If we move into a world that is truly push a button, get science out of it, I think a lot of things are going to be different. A lot of companies are going to be screwed up.

That is where Eric signed off. And the question he left Nathan and Pash chewing on as the labs charge wildly different prices for the same intelligence: Is that price discrimination something to worry about or even regulate?

I'm so torn on this question. This pattern just keeps coming up over and over and over again: concentration of power. On the one hand, I think you do want a healthy app ecosystem, and I'm wary of what happens if this greater-than-10-to-1 cost advantage persists. Right now, it seems like the app layer is getting squeezed. The individual layer is being empowered. You can flip it around and empower the app layer more, but then you disempower the individual and maybe empower more the enterprise. I'm not sure if that's better or worse.

You can think about other high-CAPEX, high-fixed-cost, variable-revenue businesses, and the classic example is usually airlines, where you've already paid for the plane upfront and then you have to maximize revenue on the plane. In order to maximize revenue, you end up having a first-class section and an economy section. They basically have this high-CAPEX GPU fleet, and they're trying to do this kind of revenue maximization of the GPU fleet that they've paid a fixed leasing cost for. It's very similar to airlines.

I have no beef with price discrimination and cross-subsidy in the airline industry. For calibration, I've also been broadly not worried about net neutrality. I remember at the time there was a lot of, "Oh my God, this is going to be the end of the internet," and I believed at the time—and I think history has certainly vindicated my predictions—that I don't think any of that's going to happen.

I say all of this as a lifelong techno-optimist libertarian, and still somehow this feels like maybe a little different, right? It's not qualitatively different, but it is tough.

From who serves the compute to who builds it: Trisha Martinez of Dapple on sovereign AI infrastructure—and the part that doesn't make the press releases, how fragile the financing underneath it really is.

Trisha, I think I've seen that you said that you can get a deployment up and running in 6 to 9 months—a very, very fast pace of deployment. Six to 9 months doesn't seem like it's long enough to actually build a physical data center, because Elon—I think Elon—has the all-time record of around 15 months or something to go from groundbreaking to operation.

In that 6-to-9-month period, what exactly are you doing? Are you leasing or renting capacity from existing neoclouds and then putting your stack of software and tools on top of that, plugging that into customers who are already Azure-native and having them move over? Is that the frame of what happens in those 6 to 9 months?

Trisha Martinez

Yes, and that's a great question. The reality is we can't do everything. This market is so big, and honestly, the demand we're getting is so incredibly massive. We are creating a network. We are orchestrating that network. Our model is to partner with world-class data center operators and infrastructure providers and then bring together the capital, the GPU infrastructure, the enterprise customers, and that software operating layer that turns those facilities into AI-ready infrastructure.

In some cases, we're deploying infrastructure that we help finance, and in other cases, we'll also deploy on partner infrastructure. So yes, part of our strategy is going to be building out campuses. We need to have capacity available before the demand hits. But for us, what's important is that whether we own those GPUs on our balance sheet or whether we are financing that data center and building it ourselves, we have third-party partners that we rely on and can support in various data center operations and/or on the GPU deployment side as well.

I have a question on the overall financial towers that we are building right now in the AI space. It sounds like your customers are making long-term commitments to you, which presumably insulates you from some of the riskier dynamics that could emerge. But how much do you see in the space as a whole that is this long-term commitment and short-term revenue that creates the potential for somebody to have a bad quarter and, all of a sudden, there's a cascading problem?

We've obviously seen that pattern play out in previous financial crisis moments. I'm not sure how much of that is going on today or how likely it is for some external shock to be big enough to throw a wrench into the system that really could spin part of it off its axis. What do you see in that regard?

Trisha Martinez

That's a really, really good question, because the market has changed drastically since we jumped in. We're seeing enormous amounts of capital still flowing into AI infrastructure, but investors have become much more disciplined over the last 12 to 18 months.

The market is definitely moving away from, "Hey, build it and everyone's going to come," toward infrastructure that has to be backed by real demand and long-term customer contracts. This is what became so exciting for us: We saw this big gap in the market. The model that we're building is significantly more de-risked than the current existing model.

The CSPs and the neoclouds are servicing those hyperscaler deals that are massive in nature, but in reality, there aren't that many of those deals that you can come by. Or you're taking geopolitical risks by working with different customers and offtakers within the market. Now, looking at the regulatory restrictions, people are getting scared and the financing groups are getting scared that the existing Trump administration is going to start cracking down on certain countries or on who is consuming compute.

That puts a lot of those CSP operators at risk, to be honest. Our approach, in our mind, is very attractive, and it is attractive to the financing partners we work with. These are repeatable customers. These are long-term contracts. Our customers are putting large down payments upfront. It enables us to do really interesting things: finance those GPUs and finance an actual data center.

These are customers who are sticky. They end up repeating with you over time because it's easier to repeat than to find a new provider. This is why the enterprise is so attractive. The financial market is changing. It's becoming more risk-averse because so many neoclouds and CSPs have taken bad deals, and now those financing partners are bearing the burden of that.

Our model is a different approach, and it's more attractive to the financial markets, I would say.

How often do you see pricing move while the deal is still in flux? Do you see pricing move a lot?

Trisha Martinez

Yes. I think the upside of this market is that sales cycles literally cannot be 6 months with an enterprise because the capacity is gone. So we have a forcing function. This is the price right now.

This is the location. You want it, take it or don't, because tomorrow it's probably gone. So, we have this constant movement with our customers, which at times is difficult for the enterprise, but the reality is everyone wants capacity right now. And so, they're willing to move at a much faster pace.

Sure, pricing changes, but once we deliver an offering to our customer, we generally honor that, even if pricing changes. But again, if we're doing deployment, we're buying at a certain price, and we honor that price with our customers.

Two more builders to close. First, Robbie Goldfarb, co-founder and CTO of Forum AI, which builds AI systems to judge other AI against expert review. We asked what he's found about the automated judges the whole field benchmarks with.

Robbie Goldfarb

There was an exercise we did a while back where we looked at several LLM judges that we could find in open-source benchmarks. Some were from foundation model labs, and some were just from academic research. We got some experts and had them look at the judges. We had them look at whether they were pulling from rubrics or just prompt instructions, and we said, “Do you agree with the instructions here?” Generally, the expert would be like, “Yeah, that seems pretty reasonable. I agree with it.”

Then we had the experts look at labeled outputs from the judges. Let's take political bias, for example: a bunch of responses that were labeled, “This is politically biased,” “This isn't,” and “This is.” We asked the experts the same question: “Do you agree?” What we found was that, more often than not, they didn't agree with the actual judgments produced by the agents, even though they agreed with the high-level guidance that was provided to the judge in context.

That is, first of all, an important realization, because so much of the current state of benchmarking relies on these AI judges that were calibrated loosely in that way.

He sees the same gap when you try to align a model by handing it a long list of rules and expecting them to hold up in the real world.

Robbie Goldfarb

In some ways, Anthropic's constitution is also just a long list of rules. Certainly, the way they use it is a little bit different, but there's one example we were confronted with the other day. There's something in Anthropic's constitution that speaks to this idea of, “You should never scheme behind the user's back.” That was the idea.

We were talking with some experts exploring the mental health space, and when you talk to clinicians in mental health, when you're dealing with topics like eating disorders or other unhealthy habits, one of the things you do want to do is find a way to strategically divert the conversation, right? The intention that you have as a clinician in that case is actually hidden from the user or your client, but I think what it reveals is that rules just don't perfectly track the real world. Rules break down, and the real world is just too complicated.

They also built a benchmark called NewsBench.

Robbie Goldfarb

NewsBench was an evaluation that we built to look at how AI systems, particularly the leading chatbots, respond to questions about the news. What we did was look at 3 things. After talking to experts, we defined “good” as accuracy: Is it getting the facts right? Neutrality: Is it leaning in one direction or the other? And source quality: When they have to ground themselves on external sources, which of course you have to do quite a bit with news, are those sources reliable?

We looked at GPT, Claude, Grok, and Gemini. I would say the findings certainly weren't all bad, and there were some positive signals. We saw that, generally, models improved as we tracked them version over version. Opus 4.6 to 4.8 was a pretty significant improvement in bias, which is also consistent with Anthropic's reporting. But Fable was actually a big regression, interestingly.

I think that's an interesting point: when you're dealing with these more subjective, nuanced things, more power doesn't always mean better. We looked at about 2,500 responses per model. About a third of them had a factual error in them: a wrong number, a wrong date, a misattributed quote, or a misstated policy.

I think we knew that was an issue, but that number was quite a bit higher than even we expected going into it. On sourcing, in about 15%—1 in 7—responses, they sourced foreign state media, like RT from Russia or China Daily. What's really interesting is that often this wasn't even in questions about their home country, so we saw RT and China Daily sourced in questions about U.S. domestic politics.

That was a particularly interesting finding that we saw across the board with all the models. From measuring AI to betting the whole company on it, our last guest is Eric Vaughan, CEO of IgniteTech. Back in 2023, he called generative AI an existential threat, put his entire organization on AI 1 day a week, and, when most of his people pushed back, replaced them, rebuilding around what he calls AI DNA.

We started with one of his recent acquisitions, a company called Chorus.

Eric Vaughan

Chorus was a large acquisition. We don't release numbers, but it was a 9-digit-revenue company. I don't think we could have done it without the AI-DNA-forward approach that we were able to take.

Just for instance, there were hundreds of employees in 8 different countries, and we needed to very quickly understand who they were, what they did, what they knew, how they were thinking about everything about the business. We quickly developed an AI interviewer that asked questions before there was a human one-on-one.

Before, we would have set up human one-on-ones, and people would have gone through 30-minute drills with hundreds of people over the next several weeks without any data. Now we all arrive with a dossier. The interview process just shortcut that and let us get familiar, categorize, and understand who knew what.

Another example was being able to communicate to the customers in a way that was timely. In our AI-creation world, we wrote a new software product that's available on the market. It's a product called Eloquens AI.

Eloquens AI is an email AI persona. It answers every email it gets in 5 minutes or less, always in perfect grammar, in 160 languages. It's always empathetic, doesn't miss anything, knows when it needs to escalate to a human, and just adds them on CC.

With Eloquens, we were always able to respond in a timely way, especially when it came to HR—empathetically and with detail. So, that's just 2 examples of how we were able to really fuel that acquisition.

The company was losing money when we bought it. The company is now profitable. We have completely transformed the operation of the company. In 1 year's time, we've released 2 brand-new versions of Chorus's software that are fully AI-enabled.

In 1 case, it was the rewrite of 15 years of code that we discarded and rewrote from the ground up for 1 of the 2 products that they had. We did that in a year, in the middle of all of that transition. That's not a story I could have told 5 years ago. It's just not possible. It just wouldn't have happened.

That internal turnover—about 80% of his people—led to the question I most wanted to put to him. All the things that you did sound like quite a lot, and yet the headline number is still 80% turnover.

I'm interested in your point of view on the rest of society. That percentage strikes me as maybe where we're going—a sort of 80/20, where the 20% kind of inherit the earth, the labor force, in the short term. Do you have any ideas about things that can be done at a broader level, beyond what an individual company like yours can do, to change that?

Eric Vaughan

I do worry about the other 80% quite a bit.

I do too.

Eric Vaughan

It's not like other revolutions throughout history. You can't force people to believe in something. You can't force people to do something that they just are not going to do. So, in my opinion, we need to leave them to their own devices.

But if you can be very open and aware and make people understand what the possibility is, and, number 1, really attack this idea that AI is going to replace me—AI is 100% going to replace roles. It's going to replace duties. But in our case, what it's done is—there's too much, I think—we overindex in this discussion of AI on efficiency gains.

I see it the other way. I think it frees up innovation. So, how do we help that other 80%? We teach them skills. We've got to teach them skills.

If anybody is thinking that what we're saying is all you have to do is show up and throw a sentence into one of the models and great things will happen, you're wrong. It takes work. You've got to give it context. And I think the more that we start to see phenomenal advances and changes in industry, in various professions, people will convert one way or the other.

They'll convert out of necessity, or they'll convert because the light bulb will go off. We're trying to make the light bulb go off. That's what we're trying to do. We're trying to ignite that fire. We need to ignite it in children.

What we shouldn't be doing is saying, “Hey, let AI do your homework for you.” We should not be doing that. That's misuse. That's practically abuse. We should say, “Do your homework and let the AI check your homework.” And if it finds you don't understand something, then say, “Hey, I thought I knew how to divide fractions.”

Eric Vaughan

I guess I don't. Can you give me a tutorial on what I'm missing? And that's what AI is so good at. It'll adapt to that particular person that it's interacting with.

So, building the skills and building the fire, Nathan, would be my short answer.

Then on standards—whether enthusiasm alone is enough. A majority of people admitted to passing off AI work that they themselves could not defend. I wonder if you feel that fire and appreciation for acceleration, and kind of cultivating that culture, is that enough in your experience to also get people to have the right standards around ownership for AI outputs, or have you had to do additional organizational work to establish those standards?

Eric Vaughan

Yeah. No, that's why I said 2 things: skill and fire, not fire alone. Fire alone will get a lot of buy-in, but you've got to teach the skill. We have to teach people that context matters. We've got to teach them the ever-evolving—almost on a daily basis, at least on a weekly basis—model behavior.

What do you use, o4 versus 4o and Fable, when it was out or not? And when do you come over to Gemini? Do you use it integrated in G Suite because it's there and it's easy, or did you find that Perplexity Computer actually does a much better job? That's what I found, by the way, so far.

And you teach skills. You teach that the more context it has, the better result you'll get. You also teach about sycophancy and this tremendous tendency to always tell you you're right. I had a conversation with one of the LLMs one day about exactly this: Why do you seem to flap in the wind and go whichever direction you sense I'm going?

And it gave me a good, critical answer. It was an insight. It said, "My creators made me so I would be frictionless to the millions of people who are using me. It's a low-friction environment that I'm after." And pushing back is friction. Saying, "What the hell are you talking about? I can't do that. You didn't give me enough information." That's friction.

And so they're trying to drive adoption and usage and all that, and that in itself is driving the curve the wrong way.

And to close, where this all lands: consolidation or the age of the solopreneur? We're in this moment where, on the one hand, it sounds like, listening to you, one should expect a lot of consolidation, because if it's 80/20 at the employee level, it's probably not all that much different from that at the CEO level, and that just means there's a lot of companies that aren't going to make it.

So that's 1 big trend. At the same time, we have Stripe saying it's the age of the solopreneur, and new business formation is up higher than ever. Do you have a sense of which of those trends wins, or how to synthesize them into a vision for what we should expect?

Eric Vaughan

I certainly do believe in—I don't know if it's solopreneur, but certainly small companies. I mean, what was Cursor? It had $100 million ARR with 15 employees in less than a year, I think was the stat. The same company that just got acquired for $60 billion, for heaven's sake.

2 answers. The first is that lots of businesses will be started that will make it—businesses that would never have had a chance to make it before—because they find something that people need, use, and will pay for. That's simple business, right? But they can do it and scale it in a way that they never could before.

In terms of consolidation, I think the phrase that I've—that is mine, that I have left everywhere I possibly can—is: If you think you're behind, good. If you don't think you're behind, you're doomed. And I think all those companies that don't think they're behind and have this as a little side project, with minor investment and not CEO buy-in, are doomed.

And I mean large public companies as well, who feel impervious there. I think they'll be wrong. So we'll see more and more of that develop. It's going to depend on where your AI DNA is. The company that has strong AI DNA has a better chance of consolidating versus being consolidated.