SHOW DIRECTORY
The a16z Show
The venture firm’s view of startups, AI, software, markets, company building, and the technological shifts creating new categories.
BIDCLUB DESCRIPTION
Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
AI demand accelerated through July and August, with usage concentrated among possibly sub-10 million heavy users and no leader identifying a worsening quantitative metric.Nebius suggests nine-to-ten-month paybacks on $50B-per-gigawatt builds, supported by 50-60% customer prepayments; undersupply through ’28 could lift token prices, while shifting capacity to training could cut lab revenue from $480B to $120B.
"Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Gavin Baker argues AI does not resemble 2000: NVIDIA trades near 40 times trailing earnings versus Cisco’s 150–180 times, GPUs are fully utilized, and major buyers’ ROIC has risen roughly 10 points.The open risk is whether returns persist through Blackwell spending, while Google’s TPU competition, incumbent distribution, and outcome-based pricing could reshape infrastructure, SaaS margins, and AI monetization.
Dylan Patel on the AI Chip Race - NVIDIA, Intel & the US Government vs. China
Erik TorenbergDylan PatelSarah WangGuido Appenzeller
Nvidia’s $5 billion Intel investment, following SoftBank’s $2 billion and the U.S. government’s $10 billion, could lower Intel’s cost of capital and redraw PC and data-center competition, though Patel says Intel still needs roughly $50 billion.Huawei has credible 7 nm designs and ambitious custom-HBM products, but HBM3 yields, etch capacity, and domestic volume remain unresolved as Nvidia’s upside depends on $450–500 billion of hyperscaler capex rather than further share gains.