David Haber

David Haber × Marc Rowan

Apollo’s slightly-over-$1 trillion platform is 80% investment-grade credit, making origination capacity—not available capital—the binding constraint on growth.Daily estimated valuations for private investment-grade products by June 30 and all credit by the end of September could widen access as $800 billion of 2026 capex from four public companies tests financing capacity.

David Haber × Lloyd Blankfein

Finance is adopting AI aggressively, but near-zero error tolerance requires proven and experimental systems to run in parallel—sometimes 50 runs with perfection on the last 49—raising costs before efficiency gains.Opaque software executing 70,000 transactions could scale hidden errors and leverage, making testable reliability, regulation, and public legitimacy key adoption constraints for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other systemically important AI companies.

David Haber × Tony James

Tony James’s compounding playbook paired early S-curve positioning with operating discipline, from DLJ using leveraged buyouts to “buy clients we couldn’t actually win competitively” to Blackstone increasing market value about 170-fold while fund IRRs improved.Costco shows the customer moat in practice—if sourcing saves a nickel, “100% of that nickel gets lower prices”—while James sees a private-credit correction ahead and favors seasoned assets through co-investments and continuation vehicles.

David Haber × Owen Jennings

Block says Opus 4.6 and Codex 5.3 broke the link between headcount and output, prompting a workforce reduction of slightly more than 40% concentrated in development rather than compliance or sales.Small squads now supervise abundant machine labor, with meetings down 70-80% and Money Bot reduced from roughly 15 people to four plus $2,000 of tokens, while distribution, regulation, network effects, hardware, and proprietary economic data define the emerging moat.

David Haber × David Solomon × Ben Horowitz

David Solomon sees one of the strongest macro setups in his “40-odd years” in markets, combining fiscal expansion, rate cuts, deregulation and an unprecedented capital-investment supercycle.Confidence has shifted M&A from “no” to “maybe,” potentially producing the biggest M&A year in history, while Goldman’s $1.9 trillion balance sheet and $500 billion deposit base frame the scale-and-funding challenge; FTC uncertainty and geopolitical risk remain key variables.

Alex Rampell × Jen Kha × David Haber × Anish Acharya

AI is becoming a full software cycle atop smartphones and cloud infrastructure, with roughly 15% of adults globally using ChatGPT weekly.Greenfield systems and labor automation offer the cleanest openings, while Salient’s 50% collection lift favors revenue creation over savings-only pitches.Durability depends on owning workflows and private outcome data as models commoditize and incumbents monetize installed distribution.

David Haber × Zach Perret

Fintech is entering an early-to-mid-spring cycle where survivors are expanding from digital access into cash-flow underwriting, embedded finance, fraud controls, and full-stack products.AI’s clearest institutional opportunity is software that performs compliance, servicing, treasury, and trading work, while consumer agents still face a trust barrier around unexplained money movement.Fraud is growing 18% to 20% annually as AI accelerates adversaries, making Plaid’s cross-network Protect and Lens Score important 2026 catalysts amid unresolved defensive challenges.

David Haber × Alex Rampell × Erik Torenberg

AI expands software’s addressable market from IT budgets into labor spend, but durable advantage still depends on workflow ownership, context, systems of record, and customer dependence.Per-seat SaaS faces outcome-pricing pressure, while narrow labor-replacing features can scale through usage, data, and distribution before consolidation leaves undifferentiated competitors behind.

Alex Rampell × David Haber × Angela Strange

AI agents shift software’s addressable budget from recording work to performing it, with US registered nurses alone representing more than $600 billion in annual wages versus under $600 billion for the entire worldwide software market.Per-seat incumbents such as Salesforce and Zendesk must reprice around outcomes or risk losing most seat revenue, while startups can enter through messy inboxes and build defensibility through workflow ownership, integrations, and systems of record.