Gavin Baker

Gavin Baker

Anthropic’s reported $2T IPO figure may be banker theater rather than a clearing price, while Gavin Baker and Sacks estimate 2027 exit ARR at roughly $400–500B, constrained by physical supply.NVIDIA’s $500B financing effort could make GPU compute an asset class and support a capital-light cloud business, while Anthropic’s S-1 will test demand and dark-GPU risk.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Gavin Baker argues that the AI selloff lacks a clear demand break: GPU rental prices, DRAM, tokens, and inference usage are accelerating, while open source shifts margins toward infrastructure rather than eliminating compute demand.Credit and regulation are the real catalysts to monitor, but expiring contracts could reprice installed GPUs sharply higher; Baker also sees SpaceX as an underappreciated compute platform, contingent on power, financing, and political acceptance.

Gavin Baker × Travis Kalanick

Mamdani-backed challengers swept three safe Democratic New York districts despite Polymarket assigning only a 26% chance, demonstrating the DSA’s organizational leverage.The panel linked socialism’s momentum to housing, debt, inflation, and downward mobility, while GLM 5.2 brought a 744-billion-parameter, MIT-licensed model near the coding frontier at 85% lower cost than GPT 5.5.Open weights may shift value from frontier labs toward chips, memory, hosting, and routing, as Micron’s sold-out HBM supply makes DRAM and power the immediate constraints.

Brad Gerstner × Gavin Baker × Andrew Fox × Clark Tang

SpaceX’s $135 IPO and $1.77T valuation already have terrestrial AI economics behind them, with EWS reaching the #4 hyperscaler position in 30 days and Anthropic contracts monetizing at $22-23B per gigawatt per year.Orbital compute is an optional 5x capex reduction conditional on Starship reuse and satellite reliability, while Cursor’s coding data and Fable 5 could extend frontier-model revenue; the $1.5T capex case still faces valuation, macro, and execution risk.

Gavin Baker × Bret Johnsen

Starship V3’s successful first flight, including new V3 Raptors and a soft second-stage splashdown, strengthens conviction that rapid reuse could cut Falcon’s cost per kilogram 10x within the next couple of years.That capability is sequenced with Starlink V3, direct-to-cell and orbital compute: Starlink could grow from 10M customers to hundreds of millions, while SpaceX builds toward thousands of launches annually and heavy silicon capex.

Brad Gerstner × Gavin Baker × Kelly Rodriques × Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Private-company secondaries have become a third exit market, with 2025 volume roughly twice the 2021 peak and activity equal to 31% of primary venture activity.Forge’s Schwab partnership could distribute private equity to millions of investors through regulated products, while longer private lifecycles, double-fee SPVs and valuation compression make governance, pricing and liquidity worth monitoring.

Gavin Baker × Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

SpaceX’s proposed $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation pairs Starlink’s $11.4 billion revenue and $4.4 billion operating income with terrestrial data centers potentially reaching $100-$200 billion by 2030-32.Nvidia’s $81.6 billion quarter and Anthropic’s profitability strengthen the AI case, but rival ASICs still lack comparable MLPerf tests while rising yields, 310% global debt-to-GDP, and uncertain regulation remain risks.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Anthropic added $11B of ARR in March while tech reached its cheapest relative valuation in 10 years, making the drawdown a differentiated demand signal rather than a capitulation event.At a rumored $900B on $50B ARR, Baker estimates unconstrained run-rate revenue of $100–200B, while TSMC’s capacity choices remain the key bubble test and orbital compute threatens terrestrial power-and-cooling ramps.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Anthropic added $11 billion of ARR in one month, while Asian AWS prices doubled, GPU availability fell, and DRAM went vertical as reasoning increased inference demand.Baker sees compute-constrained revenue upside, but TSMC capacity remains the key test for whether AI becomes an infrastructure bubble.

Gavin Baker × Jas Khaira

Gavin Baker says every memory cycle signals “sell,” but this may resemble the mid-90s capacity cycle, leaving him taking the over on AI infrastructure forecasts.He sees TSMC constraining supply, Trainium 3 gaining significance, and neoclouds earning premiums through utilization, while orbital compute threatens terrestrial power and cooling industrials within two years.