Tess Cameron

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

XBI’s rise into the mid-150s is backed by fundamentals, though an AI reversal could create cross-sector downside risk.Josh Schimmer’s regression found an R² of just 0.2 between XBI performance and deal value; AbbVie’s $10.9B Apogee purchase instead highlights replicability and order of entry.FDA normalization and continued China-originated financings are catalysts, while restrictions that compress biotech returns remain a risk.

Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber × Tess Cameron × Sam Fazeli

Biotech M&A is setting records across stages: Alkermes appears to have won Avadel at $2.4B, while J&J paid $3B for Phase 1 Halda, the highest-priced Phase 1 acquisition ever per Tess Cameron.Competition is intensifying as pharma prices in 2026-27 patent cliffs, but 82% of surveyed companies worry about FDA function; early-program delays could last two or three years, while falling drug prices make volume response a key watchpoint.

Josh Schimmer × Eric Schmidt × Tess Cameron

Vinay Prasad’s FDA return and Precigen’s full Papzimeos approval on a “pretty small trial” signal differentiated evidence standards for rare diseases.Eric favors avoiding binaries, arguing 70% consensus odds versus 50% reality create poor risk-reward.With horizons compressed to 3–4 months, mispriced names could re-rate before data, while regulatory clarity remains the catalyst and risk.

Eric Schmidt × Brad Loncar × Tim Opler × Tess Cameron

Biotech M&A has reached 18 takeouts worth over $40B in 2025, as patent cliffs drive pharma’s inorganic expansion and Capstan returns to early science.Median bidders remain 1, keeping Blueprint and Verona premiums modest, while Capstan’s $2.1B in vivo CAR-T deal may be either a wider XBI signal or a one-off; MFN rumors and upcoming data remain key watchpoints.

Grace Colón × Josh Schimmer × Sam Fazeli × Tess Cameron × Eric Schmidt × Yaron Werber

Vinay Prasad’s CBER appointment erased 7% from XBI in a day, but his conciliatory debut shifted the key signal from rhetoric to approvals.MRD as a myeloma filing endpoint is the live test: a reversal could lengthen cell-therapy trials, while CDER bispecifics may retain it.Sarepta’s guidance cut to $2.3–2.6B exposed capacity risk, while Novavax and a possible MFN order leave regulatory and pricing catalysts unresolved.

Chris Garabedian × Brad Loncar × Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Tess Cameron

Biotech markets face policy and macro instability as rising bond yields and a weaker dollar overshadow a temporary tariff-pause rally.With private capital confronting scarce company formation and weaker public comparables, catalysts must prove their case, while royalty financing offers earlier funding but can leave debt-like repayment obligations when programs fail.