Graig Suvannavejh

Chris Garabedian × Brian Skorney × Graig Suvannavejh × Jason Kelly

Biotech capital markets are recovering: Cardigan is the 11th 2026 IPO filing, while Endpoints sentiment reached 96 and finance/investment stakeholders reached 120.Ginkgo’s cell-engineering thesis, Lilly’s up-to-$3.8B vaccine buying, Apogee’s up-to-$1.3B financing, and ASCO’s RESOLUTE 302 readout leave regulation and tolerability to monitor.

Graig Suvannavejh × Josh Schimmer × Yaron Werber × Sam Fazeli × Oliver Barnes

XBI has rebounded 84% from its Liberation Day low to a fresh 52-week high, with financing and IPO activity pointing to improving risk appetite.Merck’s $6.7B Terns deal shows updated data can erase bidding leverage, while Gilead’s $3.15B Tubulis acquisition backs a differentiated ADC platform; Replimune’s second CRL leaves the FDA’s bar unclear, and obesity pricing competition remains a catalyst.

Eric Schmidt × Paul Matteis × Sam Fazeli × Graig Suvannavejh × Luba Greenwood

Graig Suvannavejh’s 15-year Sentometer shifted from record small-cap enthusiasm to “winter is coming,” pointing to probably another three months before biotech sentiment bottoms.Profitability is approaching across SMID biotech, but its value depends on reinvestment-driven growth, not modest earnings.SpringWorks’ expected Merck KGaA catalyst and Moderna’s cancer-vaccine timeline lead the watchlist, while FDA and NIH changes remain unresolved risks.

Grace Colon × Tim Opler × Graig Suvannavejh × Eric Schmidt

The Trump–Lilly–Novo agreement’s $4,000 annual Mounjaro or Ozempic price for Medicare/Medicaid may establish a “large markets, medium prices” benchmark, supporting Tim Opler’s XBI 150-plus thesis.Against a $90B pharma revenue hole and subdued deal pace, RAPT’s $35M China-licensed asset becoming a $2.2B GSK takeout illustrates pivot economics, while FDA instability, MFN reopening, China, and IPO quality remain key risks.

Josh Schimmer × Brian Skorney × Paul Matteis × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech enters 2026 on launches rather than dreams, with limited pricing pressure, more M&A, XBI still cheap over five years, and rates the key macro risk.IPO expectations range from 15 to roughly 50 or more, but preclinical FOMO remains a crash signal; meanwhile, FDA turnover makes uniQure’s reversal a test of whether prespecified agreements still carry weight, while Capricor and Praxis offer near-term approval catalysts.

Graig Suvannavejh × Paul Matteis × Brian Skorney × Yaron Werber × Chris Garabedian × Adam Feuerstein

George Tidmarsh’s CBER departure and UniQure’s rejected filing after FDA alignment expose a widening gap between flexible guidance and unpredictable execution.UniQure reported 80% disease slowing at two years and 75% at three years for high dose, while Sarepta’s failed ESSENCE study and December’s Stoke meeting will test evidence standards and early-filing appetite.

Paul Matteis × John Maraganore × Eric Schmidt × Graig Suvannavejh

Biotech’s rally is being powered by real money, with the XBI outperforming the S&P 500 by 17% since September and fund flows positive for a second straight week, though Eric Schmidt cautions fundamentals may lag the tape.FDA delays, unclear CNPV criteria and potential pricing concessions remain execution risks, while a long-awaited 2026 IPO window, strategic M&A and upcoming Alector Phase 3 data could test whether clinical risk is being rewarded sustainably.