Koji × 王家伟

具身智能正从单次演示转向 OOD 适应、steerability 与 context 理解，覆盖即时反馈和长期记忆。深普以 UMI 数据闭环推进真机验证，超过95%轨迹可执行；年底模型的泛化和评测、scaling law 仍待验证，延迟与数据成本构成约束。

Koji × 韩铮 × 沈宇军 × 王潜 × 许华哲

Astra实测显示，语义和空间泛化较强，复杂接触任务却暴露出物理泛化短板。仿真抓取、放置、组装已接近100%成功率，但真实触觉信号与仿真仍“基本上千差万别”。商业化取决于客户持续付费及多数任务接近100%的可靠性，3年内通用服务能否出现仍待验证。

Dino Mavrookas × Rob Lehman × Doug Lambert × Vibhav Altekar × Molly O'Shea

China outbuilds the US 230-to-1, while only 1% of roughly $1T 2026 Department of War budget went to autonomy.Saronic says faster iteration and volume can change maritime economics, with Marauder’s propulsion stack bench-built eight months before its 180-foot ship existed.Policy tailwinds are possible, but legal approval, manning requirements, classified subsea technology, and supply-chain bottlenecks remain watchpoints.

Peter Diamandis × Salim Ismail × Dave Blundin × Alexander Wissner-Gross × Emad Mostaque

Astra reportedly delivers 3.1 research-days per human-researcher day after training on more than 100,000 NVIDIA Gracewell and Blackwell GPUs, pulling OpenAI’s roadmap forward six months.With 10,000 agents tackling Navier–Stokes for approximately $6.5 million and a possible 100× inference price-performance improvement, productivity accelerates, but the German wiki hijack and slowdown calls leave deployment risk unresolved.

José × Ian Rountree

Cantos’ edge is deliberate smallness: Fund IV reached $70M, supporting $1.5–4M checks before websites and same-day SAFE execution.Ian favors hard tech, vertical integration and manufacturing scale, with Neros at 1,000 drones weekly and targeting a million annually.The opportunity is cost advantage and defense demand; China’s control of motors, actuators and rare-earth inputs remains a physical-AI risk.

Dino Mavrookas × Molly O'Shea

China built over 1,000 commercial ships last year versus five large ocean-going vessels in the US, while China holds 57% of global shipbuilding capacity.Port Alpha’s $3 billion project targets autonomous container ships, tankers, and roll-on/roll-off vessels: simpler designs could enable scale and lower costs, but only 1% of the roughly $1 trillion FY26 Department of War budget went to autonomy.

Molly O'Shea × Dino Mavrookas

Saronic’s $9.25B valuation and $2.6B raised center its shipbuilding thesis on capacity, with Port Alpha’s $3.2B initial buildout adding 150,000 gross tons.An Austin line designed for 2,000 Corsairs annually combines hardware-software co-design, software reuse, and 25,000+ testing hours, but ocean reliability remains unresolved.

李翔 × 张鹏

张鹏将移动互联网概括为“填坑”，将AI与硬科技概括为“爬坡”：范式尚未收敛，思维框架可能每半年变化，最大风险是成为“loading program”。模型公司首先要留在牌桌上，全球最终可能只有十家甚至二十家；具身智能的数据范式仍未收敛，能否把智能进一步转化为真正的生产力值得持续观察。

李梓楠 × 徐煜萌 × 程曼祺

具身智能正从技术竞赛滑向融资与 IPO 竞速：某高估值公司去年研发约三千万元，却累计融资超五十亿元；全行业千卡以上集群据信源仅八家。港股18C催熟收入，地方数采中心占盘子至少三到四成，但八千万元项目已散伙；今年需验证一千万小时数据能否支撑 scaling，以及宇树上市后六个月的定价。

李翔 × 连文昭

具身智能路线仍未收敛，但行业正从Demo转向场景落地。原洛以物体和力模态闭环，瞄准湿实验瓶颈，常见流程80%以上可复现。“物理基座”能否商业化，仍取决于仪器利用率30%—40%的提升、海外开机可靠性与偏高预期。