John Collison

Nik Storonsky × John Collison

Daily business sign-ups reached about 1,500, only 30% paid-marketing sourced, extending Revolut’s seven-year “purely organic” playbook.Gross-profit curves allocate teams across roughly 100 historical bets, while retained lending exposure targets below 10% because downturns can erase years of profits.A US launch is hoped for around next year, with two approvals outstanding; a 2028 IPO depends on favorable markets.

John Collison × Scott Nolan

General Matter is targeting a newly open domestic enrichment market: Russia supplies about a quarter of US enrichment, and import waivers end January 1st, 2028.Utilities provide most contracting volume, while HALEU availability is an immediate bottleneck for advanced reactors; fuel can reach 50% of some SMRs’ levelized energy cost at current prices, depending on design.A $900 million capacity-building award supports a Paducah facility targeting deliveries by the end of the decade, with licensing, manufacturing and an undisclosed enrichment process still to clear.

Sam Altman × John Collison

DRAM makers remain cautious despite Altman’s roughly $100 billion annual free-cash-flow expectation per producer; he targets five-year ownership costs of $20 billion versus an illustrative $70 billion per gigawatt.The cut requires more supply, cheaper energy and thinner supplier margins; Navier–Stokes cost roughly $10 million, maybe a little more, and could be repeated at 1/100th the cost a year later, Altman bets.

John Collison × Ben Thompson × Scott Kirby

United is using Starlink’s speed—not free Wi-Fi—to attract passengers and convert trial into loyalty through broader technology and service within Kirby’s two-to-three-year window before competitors, potentially including Amazon, catch up.At recording, 48% of flights had Starlink; Boeing 787 certification slowed rollout, while Los Angeles targets full coverage in the first half of next year.

Toto Wolff × John Collison

Mercedes combines F1’s scarce team ownership with roughly $1 billion in revenue and a 30% margin, though Collison’s roughly 15x EBIT framing uses current earnings that Wolff says were considerably higher than at the transaction.Owner control supports a ten-year horizon, but the “$200 million and a bit” cap forces lap-time trade-offs, and DAS’s ban after one year leaves regulatory durability an unresolved risk.

John Collison × Chris Sacca × Will O'Brien

Ulysses’ Mako can sell for as little as $50,000 to navies versus roughly $5 million for the common U.S.Navy autonomous underwater vehicle, while Leviathan supports persistent, modular missions.Demand already exceeds manufacturing capacity, with a factory planned next year; slow procurement could become a moat once deployments make undersea monitoring sticky and bankable.

John Collison × Mark Zuckerberg × Alexandr Wang

Meta is making a $100 billion-scale infrastructure wager to return to the frontier with Muse Wonder, a larger model optimized for personal and professional agents, active memory, long-horizon focus and multimodality.Paid access, APIs, enterprise distribution, commerce and existing-business growth must fund the buildout, while resale or internal use partly hedges downside if models or AI disappoint.

Molly O'Shea × John Collison

AI training is shifting from benchmark scores to economically valuable work, making high-fidelity environments for real workflows, tools, data, and verifiers a bottleneck.Enterprises may gain an edge by owning evaluations and correction data around differentiating workflows while routing tasks across models for accuracy, cost, and latency.Reward hacking and limited agent endurance make permissions, auditability, and verification key adoption constraints.

John Collison × Evan Spiegel

Snap enters 2026 near 1 billion monthly active users and net-income profitability, with consumer Specs launching after 12 years of investment to pair normal-glasses wearability with spatial-computer capabilities.With over two-thirds of new code AI-written, 25 million Snapchat+ subscribers, and direct revenue above $1 billion, cheaper software may increase the value of Snap’s distribution and proprietary hardware.

John Collison × Tony Xu

DoorDash won by proving retention and frequency before buying growth, with product reliability, service recovery, and scarce-capital discipline establishing an “unfair advantage” before acquisition spending accelerated.Its larger opportunity now spans 3–5x incremental restaurant margins, SevenRooms-powered customer identity, and multimodal delivery, but AI interfaces matter only if DoorDash solves inventory, exceptions, and post-checkout reliability end to end.