José × Ian Rountree

Cantos’ edge is deliberate smallness: Fund IV reached $70M, supporting $1.5–4M checks before websites and same-day SAFE execution.Ian favors hard tech, vertical integration and manufacturing scale, with Neros at 1,000 drones weekly and targeting a million annually.The opportunity is cost advantage and defense demand; China’s control of motors, actuators and rare-earth inputs remains a physical-AI risk.

Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Brad Gerstner

Google’s infrastructure-first capital shift is coinciding with senior AI departures, while Sacks sees Anthropic and OpenAI forming a premium frontier duopoly as cheaper models pressure weights toward commodity pricing.SpaceX reported $7.8B revenue, up 92% YoY, and Starlink’s cash generation could fund expansion, but the proposed $300B-scale AI buildout leaves financing, spot pricing, and demand sensitivity as key risks.

Harry Stebbings

SpaceX’s 19% debut was amplified by a 4% float, newly listed options, and index inclusion, while both guests expect six-month weakness.Fable marks a possible Rubicon: the US ostensibly regulated an AI model by capability without judicial review, testing 3-6 months later.Mistral’s $3BN raise at $20BN underscores sovereign-AI demand, while Fin’s $3.6BN sale contrasts with Wix and Adobe’s replicability and strategic-option problems.

张小珺 × 洪力德（Lewis Hong）

前SpaceX高管洪力德认为，SpaceX IPO可能成为太空行业的“ChatGPT moment”，但真正的技术拐点是2015年12月21日首次成功回收火箭。回收将入轨成本从SpaceX之前的每公斤1万至2万美元降至猎鹰9复用后的3000美元，星舰目标低于100美元，太空数据中心与制造能否在效率上超越地面设施仍待验证。

泓君 × Lewis Hong × 刘冰雁

SpaceX将火箭、Starlink与xAI打包进2026年6月、1.75万亿美元IPO，首个目标是1 GW太空算力。但按实际7,000美元/公斤发射价计入散热、冗余、制造与GPU寿命后，回本期可能从两个月拉长至两年，2029年经济性仍待验证。

Harry Stebbings

SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO at $135 a share and roughly $1.8 trillion valuation replaces price discovery with Elon’s conviction, while a book only 2X covered leaves meaningful downside, flat-trading, and retail-driven upside scenarios.A weak debut could restrain OpenAI’s valuation ambitions and reset LP return expectations, while persistent AI, radically higher revenue per employee, and concentrated foundation-model supply remain the more durable signals to monitor.

Andrew Feldman × Will Marshall × Brad Gerstner × Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

The IPO pendulum is shifting toward companies listing at $1 billion to $5 billion, with Planet creating roughly 90% of its post-SPAC value in years three and four.Cerebras’s $18.50 IPO followed a difficult 9.5 years, while its chip targets 15–18-times faster OpenAI workloads; orbital data centers offer a potential two-to-three-year cost catalyst, but distributed clustering remains unresolved.

Kyle Harrison × Molly O'Shea

Anduril challenges defense’s cost-plus, built-to-spec model with fixed-price, built-to-mission products for high-volume, low-cost, attritable conflict, where US munitions could last roughly 11 days.Lattice links Sentry Towers, Fury, Copperhead, and EagleEye’s $22 billion IVAS contract through sensor fusion; the small number of neo-primes makes execution and second-order beneficiaries worth monitoring.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Scott Nolan

America’s zero commercial uranium-enrichment capacity makes fuel the bottleneck for advanced nuclear power, with HALEU scarcity and the January 1, 2028 Russian-import ban creating defined market openings.General Matter targets dollars per kilogram-SWU as its cost metric, while data-center demand and behind-the-meter SMRs could accelerate deployment; execution, permitting, and the economics of nuclear construction remain key risks.

张璐 × 程曼祺

Terafab真正要争夺的不是一座芯片厂，而是马斯克生态的算力主权。计划把 Tesla、SpaceX、xAI 从芯片设计、制造一路整合到部署应用，终极目标是年产 1 TW AI 算力，并将 80%-90% 部署到太空。张璐把它形容为一个“巨大的跨公司的工业操作系统”，…