Harry Stebbings

NVIDIA’s $6B Poolside licensing deal, $1B investment at a $12B pre-money valuation, and 109-engineer transfer show frontier-model capital intensity pushing capable startups toward strategic “failure” exits.OpenAI’s 2027 IPO appears compelled by Anthropic’s $60B mid-year run rate versus under $30B this year, while enterprises’ $200–400B AI-spending capacity remains the key test.

李翔 × 李丰

李峰判断中国经济新旧替换已到拐点，芯片进口或达5000多亿美金、出口3000多亿，全球AI资本开支正成为科技增长的重要驱动。人民币相对强势被用于提升进口能力并调平贸易顺差，四五十万亿定存到期将流向理财、保险、权益产品与提前还贷；地方财政则从土地转向股权，五十四号文和消费税落地是后续变量。

李翔 × 李丰

中国一季度GDP增长5%，消费与投资贡献超过八成，进出口虽增长约15%，对GDP贡献仍不到六分之一。房地产仍有负拉动，基建与高技术制造托住投资；三个500亿元母基金或撬动约6000亿元，投早投小成为新催化剂。

Peter Diamandis × Ben Horowitz × Salim Ismail × Dave Blundin × Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross

Recursive self-improvement is already operating as frontier models propose experiments, optimize inference loops, and develop successor models, even with humans still pressing approval buttons.AI economics favor capital-intensive platforms and rapid distribution, while Apple’s local-agent hardware opening and the unresolved xAI departures make infrastructure, talent controls, and adoption timing key variables to monitor.

Howard Lutnick × Chamath Palihapitiya

Howard Lutnick forecasts U.S.GDP growth in the “fives” and potentially “sixes” if rates fall, tying the outcome to $18 trillion of pledged investment, new construction, tariff revenue, and domestic capacity in strategic industries.His industrial-policy mechanism exchanges market access for financing, reshoring, drug-price concessions, semiconductor capacity, and government equity, while execution risk remains concentrated in unverified forecasts, trade negotiations, and the timing of factory investment.

Harry Stebbings

NVIDIA’s $20 billion Groq deal is strategic insurance against an inference-first market where predictable, low-latency performance could pressure its exceptional margins.Manus reached $100 million of ARR before Meta paid $2.5 billion, while Navan’s roughly 4x ARR public valuation highlights how optional and unattractive IPOs have become.

Bill Gurley × Brad Gerstner

Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, the uncertain path to a deal with Xi, and the resulting shock to business investment frame a broader discussion of how geopolitics is reshaping AI.The conversation weighs OpenAI’s strategy and valuation, agent-driven threats to Google, CoreWeave’s durability, and the policy choices that could determine which technology platforms endure.