Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Alan Waxman

Waxman attributes private-credit stress to a factory model that industrialized fundraising and investing after 2018, with FRE multiples rising from 10–15x to 25–30x+ as underwriting standards weakened.Perpetual private BDC redemptions exceeding the 5% limit are not yet systemic in his view, but AI could reprice every industry, making matched liabilities, governed inflows, and strategy breadth critical.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × John Arnold

China’s NIO built a robotic factory from shovel to first car in 17 months, with suppliers within 200 miles, highlighting a speed and supply-chain advantage over aging US plants.US energy demand is clear through 2030 but permitting is the bottleneck; delivered solar PPAs remain 50%+ above 2020 lows, while advanced geothermal is Arnold’s five-year call.

Scott Bessent

Bessent’s 2026 thesis pairs roughly 6% nominal growth with a $200-$300 billion fiscal contraction, targeting mid-five deficit-to-GDP.He frames tariffs up to 145% as national-security leverage, not permanent revenue, with fentanyl rates later halved to 10%.Execution risk centers on whether Fed normalization, $1,000-$2,000 refunds, and capex incentives can repair affordability.

李翔 × 李丰

一季度GDP增长5.4%由投资和约40%的出口贡献托住，社零增长4.6%却低于预期，关税落地后内需能否承接转内销货值成为关键变量。若约1000亿美元出口转内销，终端需求可能对应约1.5万亿元人民币并要求社零增速升至约7%—9%，同时需观察90天窗口、中美deal与香港离岸融资中心的演变。

Chamath Palihapitiya × David Friedberg × Scott Bessent

Scott Bessent’s fiscal strategy targets a 3–3.5% deficit-to-GDP ratio by 2028 through slower spending, deregulation, tariffs, cheap energy and private-sector re-employment, while warning that every $300 billion cut equals roughly 1% of GDP.Bank balance-sheet reform could lower Treasury-bill yields 30–70 basis points, and a sovereign wealth fund could mobilize federal assets; execution risk centers on recession timing, congressional constraints and whether growth reaches 3%+.

泓君 × 刘锋 × 杨民道

Tether以近乎零成本的用户资金配置美债，2024年净利润137亿美元、USDT占稳定币市场约70%，流动性构成核心护城河。其透明度和储备结构虽已改善，降息后收益下降、非美债资产风险及银行发行稳定币都可能重写竞争格局。