Why A Broken Congress Is Bullish for Crypto
Post-midterm gridlock is framed as constructive for crypto, but the call does not guarantee new highs.AI delivery estimates diverge, yet operational compute could command a premium amid permitting delays and heavy capital demands.Elysium targets HyperEVM’s roughly seven TPS and $30–$100 congestion fees; its planned allocation of 50% of sequencer revenue to KNTQ buybacks hinges on attracting users.
Vol.240 宏观漫谈113|中国资本市场的提前再平衡与全球股市波动(10.30录制)
美股AI交易转向检验投入回报:微软宣布融资250亿美元后,谨慎开支带来的部分涨幅回吐。李丰称美股总市值约为美国M2的3.5倍,流动性周期尾部波动加剧,急跌时点仍无法判断。A股受公募风格监管及12月1日试行新规推动提前再平衡,外围急跌时跌幅和速度可能减缓一些。
THE LARGEST HEIST IN HISTORY w/ Mayne and insentos
Binance’s reported outflows reached $5.78 billion, while final losses and recovery remained unresolved.Coinbase offset a 10% quarterly spot-volume decline with prediction-market growth, keeping revenue flat.ICE’s announced Trade.xyz partnership, reportedly tied to about 50% of Hyperliquid volume, supports wider adoption; Druckenmiller’s Trade.xyz investment is a potential TradFi channel, not evidence he bought HYPE.
Hacking Just Got 1000x Cheaper
KevinJasonJoséYanCeterisJake Sylvestre
Attack costs may have fallen “probably 100, maybe 1,000 fold,” while defenders spend 10–1,000 times more; compromised trust infrastructure lets one entry point seed further attacks, a panelist says the demand is “very bullish compute.”Anthropic’s cash and no customer exceeding 10% of revenue ease near-term financing fears, but open-source commoditization and whether demand absorbs efficiency gains remain unresolved.
Franklin Templeton CEO on SpaceX, Anthropic, Circular Deals & the State of the Market
Johnson favors shorter-term AI financing: today’s cash-generative borrowers differ from internet-bubble firms, but 20- or 30-year data-center debt risks locking in current chip and energy needs.Franklin Templeton’s late-stage SpaceX and Anthropic stakes seek missed IPO returns, but illiquid holdings may stay at 6%, 7% or 8% against a 15% limit.
It's worse than you think w/ Tulip King, Eli Ben-Sasson and Saeed Badreg
Tulip KingEli Ben-SassonSaeed Badreg
Ansem’s October 22, 2026 risk reduction clashes with Tulip King’s “retirement cycle,” as stablecoin use and scaling challenge ETH/SOL value capture.Sunrise’s roughly $160 trillion tokenization opportunity hinges on market makers, mint-and-redeem arbitrage and distribution, not merely cross-chain transfers.Starknet’s L1 exploration adds a post-quantum catalyst, but Ben-Sasson’s “next two years” is a concern window, not an attack forecast.
Hedge Fund Manager David Orr: Investing is 99% Talent
Orr says exceptional alpha is mostly talent, while a pod-shop process may be teachable: 3% unlevered alpha scales to 18% with sixfold leverage.His multi-manager fund relies on verified live results, independent bets and risk controls; core-manager cross-correlation is 0.15, though the sample remains small.AI tracks correlation drift, while hyperscaler contracts may cushion rental-price declines; capacity and returns after fees remain priorities.
Vol.238 宏观漫谈112|全球资本市场,集体“缺钱”?
李丰称,全球流动性见顶后,市场进入资金相互抽取、谁的钱都不够用的阶段。数据中心新债减少,部分债券收益率约14%;Anthropic估值据传可能下调,IPO暂停或延期,融资压力显现。这并非即刻崩盘判断;月底议息、三季报和美国中期选举将检验资金承接力。
Managing $525 Billion by Rethinking Wealth Management | Kurt MacAlpine, Corient
Corient, now managing about $525B across 15 jurisdictions, applies a professional-services partnership to wealth management, with roughly 3,000 employees on one compensation plan and one P&L.Its roughly 50-deal engine targets founders approaching a $3–5B scale ceiling; the September 2–3, 2025 announcement of acquisitions of Europe’s largest and second-largest UHNW wealth-management businesses advances MacAlpine’s global ambition.
孙宇晨最新深度采访完整版:看空BTC,看空纳指,观望ETH,看好AI应用,不玩A股... 严肃分享了很多市场观点和交易仓位,值得一看
孙宇晨称,AI 与 Q day 破解密钥的可能性正把 BTC 风险窗口从约两年推前至一年至一年半。新地址可保护主动迁移的 BTC,却无法保护无人控制的旧币;超过 100 万枚中本聪相关 BTC 及可能接近 200 万枚以上的死币或遗失币,或重回流通。他尚无对冲策略,将隔离资产并观察技术社区;ETH 尚未买回,美股仍重仓,纳指中线微微看空,芯片短期过剩风险未解。







