THE LARGEST HEIST IN HISTORY w/ Mayne and insentos
- Ansem has turned bearish because weakening AI earnings and broken market structure could turn an equity correction into a larger crypto sell-off. He cites Amazon down roughly 10%, Intel 20%, and Google 10% after hours as investors question whether enormous AI spending is translating into revenue quickly enough. His working downside case is Bitcoin in the mid-to-high $60,000s and ETH around $1,800; the immediate objective is to “protect profits.”
- The Binance scare expands during the broadcast from initial reports of hundreds of millions to $5.78 billion in outflows, while recovery figures keep changing. Mayne initially resists selling everything because Circle and Tether have reportedly frozen roughly $1.8 billion; later readouts put frozen funds around $2 billion–$2.6 billion. The final loss remains unresolved. A later readout says nothing had gone to Tornado Cash, distinguishing that from the early report that the destination address had been funded through it.
- Hyperliquid remains the panel’s strongest long-term conviction despite its bearish positioning elsewhere. Ansem connects ICE’s announced partnership with Trade.xyz, reportedly responsible for about 50% of Hyperliquid volume, to wider adoption of perpetual futures and dollar stablecoins. Ansem says Druckenmiller invested in Trade.xyz and bought PER, while treating his involvement as a potential TradFi capital channel for Hyperliquid; he does not say Druckenmiller bought HYPE. Mayne calls HYPE a “thousand dollar token” under a future where much more financial activity runs through the platform.
- Their preferred response to a correction is to prepare specific bids and retain explicit conditions for changing their minds. Mayne expects $75,000 BTC to be tested but distinguishes a quick recovery from sustained trading below it; above $81,150, his near-term picture improves. Ansem wants Zcash near $750, Mayne likes $750–$900, and HYPE could still form a higher low around $80 after first breaking $100. “Where is weekly demand?” is the question they want answered before panic arrives.
- Insentos describes new-pair trading as a separate, fast-moving market with opportunities even when majors fall. His example is ELONG, a coin responding to Elon Musk’s “interesting” reply around Druckenmiller and Hyperliquid, which reached roughly $600,000. The work involves monitoring news, choosing among competing launches, sizing for possible total losses, and moving quickly; he says he has never deployed a coin himself.
- Coinbase’s earnings discussion presents diversification as an operating cushion against weaker spot trading. An unidentified executive says spot volume fell 10% quarter over quarter while prediction-market growth helped keep revenue flat; predictions plus derivatives supplied about 25% of transaction revenue. Armstrong frames Coinbase’s infrastructure, Deribit integration, and multiple customer groups around building a financial system that “doesn’t need Wall Street,” with more customer and product attention planned for 2027.
- The AI-security discussion leaves causation uncertain while separating possible AI exploits from quantum cryptographic risk. Ansem repeatedly suspects AI involvement in the Binance incident, then qualifies himself: “it doesn’t have to be.” Armstrong says he is less worried about AI breaking elliptic-curve cryptography than sufficiently powerful quantum computers, describing quantum risk as “when, not if,” while stressing that he does not consider it imminent.
- The panel also looks for equity trades whose drivers sit outside AI spending. Ansem favors Eli Lilly’s weight-loss business; Mayne discloses a Nike long at $35 with a $32 stop and a possible $50–$60 destination. They also like Take-Two’s exposure to GTA VI, although Mayne acknowledges its bearish chart. The shared search is for businesses and setups that can behave differently from the crowded AI trade.
1. Ansem’s bearish turn starts with AI spending and profit protection
Ansem says he switched from bullish to bearish the previous week because crypto’s technical picture deteriorated while uncertainty increased around AI capital expenditure. The question is whether revenue growth can justify what the largest technology companies are spending. If AI’s contribution to their businesses arrives more slowly than investors expect, earnings can disappoint even while adoption continues.
His examples are immediate and specific: Meta’s sell-off the previous week, Amazon down about 10% after hours that day, Intel down 20%, and Google down roughly 10% after hours the day before. These are the moves he reports watching live. His concern is that individual AI leaders are losing momentum just as the largest index constituents begin disappointing investors.
The transmission into crypto matters more to him than an isolated technology-stock correction. Equities have dominated risk returns since late 2022 and 2023 without what he considers a deep reset; broad de-risking would pressure the riskiest assets. He acknowledges an argument for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge independent of AI, but declines to make that trade himself: holders can still sell it when everything else falls.
Banks defends changing an opinion when conditions change; Ansem admits, “I flipped honestly pretty late, I think.” Several positions discussed on the show had already appreciated substantially, making an explicit profit-taking discussion overdue. His final positioning remains mixed: short BTC, ETH, and some stocks, holding more cash than a week earlier, but still losing money on coins he has not sold.
2. The Binance incident grows faster than the panel can establish its scope
The first reports interrupt the opening discussion: more than $600 million, then an alleged $2.5 billion Binance hot-wallet drain, alongside a live report of $1.7 billion. An early Tree News account describes withdrawals across more than 60 tokens to an address funded through Tornado Cash, with details unclear. Banks asks whether this could simply be Binance moving funds; the panel initially cannot establish the mechanism.
A later account Ansem reads starts at 4:20 PM ET: an outside wallet attaches EIP-7702 code to a Binance Ethereum hot wallet, then sweeps 63 tokens three minutes later, including $1.6 billion USDT and 67,000 ETH. Another hot wallet sends 28,000 ETH. The account also lists movements of 80,270 BTC and $613 million USDT on Tron, bringing reported outflows across chains to about $5 billion.
By a 5:52 PM update, the reported total is $5.78 billion; Ansem later speaks of roughly $6 billion. The earlier readout says around $2 billion is frozen, while $718 million in ETH and $500 million USDT remain movable and 17,270 BTC sits untouched. It explicitly says, “Nothing has gone to Tornado Cash.” These are evolving reports of wallet movements and recoverability, with no final reconciled loss established during the show.
Mayne initially rejects Banks’s suggestion to sell everything: Circle reportedly froze about $800 million and Tether about $1 billion, roughly 75% of the then-$2.5 billion figure. “This could’ve been way, way worse.” Banks reads CZ saying user funds are safe and that, as a shareholder rather than Binance’s manager, he expects recovery. Later frozen-fund estimates reach about $2.6 billion as the outflow estimate also increases.
3. Armstrong separates AI exploitation from quantum cryptographic risk
On Coinbase’s call, Brian Armstrong distinguishes two concerns that the hosts have been combining: AI discovering mathematical or security breakthroughs, and quantum computers eventually undermining existing cryptography. He is comparatively unworried about AI breaking ECDSA, citing approximately 40 years of unsuccessful attempts to find substantially better attacks and the difficulty of brute-forcing a 256-bit problem.
Quantum is different in his framing because it requires a sufficiently large new kind of computer, rather than simply a better conventional algorithm. He calls that a question of “when, not if,” while emphasizing that a small theoretical demonstration is insufficient. Banks’s impatience with the long answer gives way to its key qualification: Armstrong does not think the threat is imminent.
Armstrong says Coinbase has begun upgrading custody for a post-quantum world, but custody improvements also require the underlying blockchains to change. He mentions a Bitcoin advisory gathering at Stanford led by Dan Boneh, BIP-360 and other proposals, and hopes for community convergence over the coming couple of quarters. Another Coinbase executive adds that the company acquired cryptography expertise and is investing in hardening its systems.
Ansem’s broader fear is the transition itself: “this only happens one time,” when advanced models become widely available before everyone knows which systems they can exploit. He sees unusual uncertainty over the next 12–18 months, especially where an exploit can directly extract money. His insistence that the Binance incident must involve AI eventually becomes the qualification, “it doesn’t have to be”; the discussion produces no confirmed attribution.
4. Coinbase’s diversified exchange model cushions weaker spot activity
An unidentified Coinbase executive says overall crypto spot volume fell 10% quarter over quarter, while growth in prediction markets offset that decline sufficiently to deliver flat quarterly revenue. Predictions and derivatives together supplied about 25% of transaction revenue; subscription and services represented roughly 49% of net revenue. The executive describes prediction-market activity as incremental, rather than cannibalizing customers’ existing spot trading.
Ansem asks how Coinbase differentiates as competitors assemble similar combinations of spot, predictions, stablecoin interest, and institutional trading. Armstrong’s answer is mission and infrastructure: “We’re trying to make a new decentralized financial system that doesn’t need Wall Street.” He cites Base, Coinbase’s role in co-founding USDC, the x402 protocol for agentic commerce, and decentralized-exchange integrations as advantages.
Serving consumers, institutions, businesses, and developers makes the company more complicated, Armstrong acknowledges, but lets it build capabilities once and distribute them across customer groups. His larger opportunity is the incumbent financial system: he estimates traditional providers still account for 90%–95% of financial services, versus 5%–10% for fintechs. Competition therefore includes creating markets and taking share from traditional finance.
5. Deribit expands Coinbase’s product set as Armstrong shifts attention toward customers
Ansem’s derivatives question focuses on the acquired Deribit platform and the more positive US regulatory environment. Armstrong describes integrating what he calls the largest crypto-options venue into a unified, regulated global exchange spanning perps, options, and futures. The intended advantage is shared liquidity across US and non-US customers, replacing the historical separation between offshore trading venues and the American market.
Armstrong credits the GENIUS Act and cooperation between the SEC and CFTC with helping make more products available in the US. Ansem connects the discussion to his own use of GDAX and welcomes the return of a more trader-focused Coinbase Pro offering. His interest is practical: whether Coinbase can combine institutional derivatives infrastructure with products that active retail traders actually want to use.
Ansem’s pushback is that Coinbase appears much more visible in Washington than in consumer marketing. Armstrong defends the post-FTX effort as necessary after Sam Bankman-Fried damaged the industry’s standing, saying a much worse regulatory outcome was possible under Gensler. “It’s not a zero-sum game”: regulatory work continues, but he says talking to customers and improving products will occupy more of his attention in 2027.
6. Hyperliquid’s ICE connection extends the thesis beyond crypto trading
Ansem highlights an announced partnership between Intercontinental Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange’s parent, and Trade.xyz. He describes Trade.xyz as enabling equity perpetuals and spot-asset trading on Hyperliquid, accounting for approximately 50% of its volume. For him, the announcement supports a larger claim: established financial businesses may use blockchain trading infrastructure underneath their own products, rather than requiring customers to interact directly with crypto.
“I think perpetual futures are probably crypto’s greatest invention,” Ansem says. He expects the instrument to spread through traditional finance. The associated stablecoin demand is part of the same thesis: if billions or trillions of assets trade on the venue, substantially more dollar-denominated collateral could live there too. He thinks that alignment with dollar usage helps explain US institutional and government support for such partnerships.
His adjacent opportunity is consumer distribution. Hyperliquid, as he understands it, concentrates on the back end rather than mobile interfaces. That leaves room for front ends that make equity perpetuals accessible and introduce gamification. The prospective winners could therefore include applications built on the trading infrastructure, with an advantage for those that acquire users early.
Ansem also flags an ecosystem launch, naming “Elysium” and “Kinetic/Kinetics” in the transcript, with ticker KNTQ; the precise product name is unclear. He thinks the launch is next week, November 9. His rationale is that HyperEVM has been slow and relatively inactive, creating room for what he describes as an L2 built on top of Hyperliquid.
7. Institutional accumulation challenges the idea that HYPE is already too consensus
Druckenmiller’s involvement strengthens Ansem’s conviction because of the capital that may follow his judgment. Ansem says Druckenmiller’s first-ever tweet was bullish on Hyperliquid and mentioned investing in Trade.xyz; he also says Druckenmiller bought PER and invested in Trade.xyz. Ansem treats this as a potential TradFi flow signal and says it makes him ask why he would not buy HYPE. Mayne’s reaction captures the reputational signal: “Druckenmiller only tweets once, and it’s about you?”
Mayne raises Arthur Hayes’s objection that Hyperliquid may have become too consensus. Neither guest finds that sufficient reason to avoid it. Ansem offers a positioning counterargument: early crypto participants received large airdrops and sold into 10x–20x returns, so they may own less HYPE now than a year earlier. He thinks traditional-finance buyers and larger investors have absorbed that supply.
The chart reinforces their interpretation. Ansem remembers HYPE holding $20 in January while Bitcoin fell 30%; Mayne points to roughly 10 months of persistent strength while Bitcoin traded bearishly. He argues that institutional capital can establish floors that invalidate expectations of automatic 70%–80% crypto drawdowns. “The big dogs are in the room” is their explanation for behavior that differs from previous cycles.
Mayne calls HYPE a “thousand dollar token” in a future where expanding financial activity runs through Hyperliquid. Both emphasize foreign exchange as an underappreciated market, involving trillions of dollars and, Mayne says, leverage reaching 1,000x at some brokers. Their conviction rests on continued execution and expansion across markets; Mayne compares the possible opportunity to owning BNB several years earlier.
8. Mayne treats a deeper pullback as a possible higher-low entry
Mayne agrees that ETH and many altcoins have broken daily structure, while Bitcoin and the equity indices are still holding important levels. He can see BTC returning to $65,000 or below $70,000 and ETH below $2,000. That does not make him broadly apocalyptic: “a big pullback is ideally a higher low,” and a Bitcoin higher low around $70,000 could be an attractive buying opportunity.
His comparison is early 2023, when Bitcoin rose toward $25,000, retreated to approximately $19,000, and then resumed climbing. A similar 20%–25% pullback now would put it just below $70,000. He says three consecutive bearish weeks increase the importance of forming a weekly swing low soon; without that response, he sees good odds of trading below $75,000.
For HYPE, Mayne wants a new high first: from around $95, an overshoot to $104–$105 would clear the psychological $100 threshold, after which even $80 could be a higher low. Banks discloses having put roughly half his portfolio into HYPE around $25 and concentrated in HYPE and Bitcoin. The guests admire that positioning while admitting they did not size their own conviction as aggressively.
9. Options offer defined losses but add a difficult timing decision
Ansem regrets not expressing his bearish technology-earnings view through puts after watching Meta, Amazon, Google, and Intel sell off. He is interested in learning options more seriously and mentions Derive’s on-chain offering. Mayne’s reservation is straightforward: choosing direction is already difficult; choosing when the move happens adds another problem, even if options provide convexity in return.
The expiration decision is Mayne’s sticking point: zero-day contracts, end-of-week expiries, and longer maturities create different demands on timing. He also thinks options face a distribution problem in crypto because they are complicated and perps are so familiar. “The perp is the ultimate financial instrument,” he says. Their discussion is exploratory; neither claims an established options edge.
Mayne’s clearest explanation of the alternative is the premium: spend $5,000 on puts and that is the maximum loss if they expire worthless. Marketing must make that benefit understandable. Ansem mentions a mobile product called Dream; Mayne says he is a seed investor in Dream from about three years earlier. They float learning through it together after its beta launch.
10. Insentos’s new-pair market keeps producing trades during the sell-off
Insentos enters with a different experience of the day: he says he is making money trading low-cap memes rather than shorting majors. His distinction is between buying established meme coins and “trenching,” which primarily means trading newly created pairs. A falling Bitcoin market does not remove every opportunity because fresh news can still generate a coin that reaches several hundred thousand dollars.
His example is ELONG, created around Elon Musk replying “interesting” to the Druckenmiller and Hyperliquid discussion. He says it reached about $600,000 and produced a good trade for him. Ansem admits he had not even realized this market existed around that news. Mayne’s reaction—“I’m so washed if that’s what it takes to make a coin”—shows the gap between their trading environments.
Insentos uses a Twitter monitor, but says the new-pair feed itself can also function as news discovery: notice a launch gaining attention, then investigate why it is moving. His current focus follows a failed attempt to expand into majors and perp swing trading the previous month. After getting “absolutely wrecked” in the downturn, he has returned to the process he knows.
11. Launching a coin and trading a launch have overlapping incentives
Ansem asks where the moral boundary actually sits between trading new pairs, deploying them, buying supply, and bundling launches. He finds the ecosystem’s judgments inconsistent. Insentos says deployment by trenchers is generally looked down upon and that he has never deployed a coin himself, but he does not consider every deployment inherently objectionable.
His explanation is that traders sometimes launch because they want a particular version of a narrative to exist—and want to buy the “correct coin.” They may hold supply and later sell it, but he distinguishes that activity from the more objectionable “Proxima bundles” and farming operations. The discussion does not establish a precise technical or ethical boundary that resolves every case.
Multiple simultaneous launches make the problem concrete. Ansem describes watching traders buy several versions of the same narrative, lose on some, and add to the eventual winner. Mayne asks about preset position sizes; Insentos emphasizes that even buying five candidates can produce five losses if the underlying narrative fails. The risk budget therefore has to accommodate complete failures across the basket.
12. Proving a trenching edge requires matching the holding period and execution
Mayne wants to test the claim that profitable trenching requires insider coordination. He proposes exchanging skills with Insentos: teach him perp trading and learn new-pair execution in return. Banks suggests a week of daily instruction, then separate fresh portfolios of roughly $100,000 to compare results. An unknown wallet would help distinguish repeatable trading from the advantages of a publicly followed identity.
The Kimchi launch is their example of an apparent insider trade that may have a simpler explanation. Mayne says everyone watching the underlying event could anticipate a coin. Insentos says he bought the wrong version twice; Mayne also bought a losing version. The eventual winner can look obvious afterward while concealing the failed candidates and uncertainty that preceded it.
Holding period is another source of misunderstanding. Mayne says his FOMO account is down about $150,000 because he holds positions for roughly 50 days, which other traders identify as the problem. Banks reports an undisclosed account that had been up around $250,000 and is now up about $100,000, with a goal of reaching $1 million realized before revealing it.
Mayne also describes trading style changing with age: he now favors daily-chart setups over constant scalping. His basketball analogy is to stop relying on youthful running and develop “a post-up game.” More screen time once felt synonymous with more earnings, but he no longer accepts that equation. Different speeds can support an edge without requiring the same amount of continuous activity.
13. Another giant meme valuation would need a much larger audience
Mayne questions whether past winners created unrealistic expectations for new memes. Banks recalls PEPE reaching roughly $12 billion and WIF about $5 billion; they also discuss Shiba Inu around $40 billion–$45 billion and Dogecoin near $75 billion. Insentos thinks today’s “hyper rotate market” makes even $1 billion–$2 billion difficult because attention and capital move rapidly to the next launch.
Banks thinks another enormous winner remains possible, but it would need to escape crypto Twitter’s audience and habits. He imagines a meme becoming widely known outside the existing circle, attracting millions of holders, or acquiring something beyond pure meme status. Alternatively, an unusually committed community might sustain it. Mayne thinks TikTok or similarly broad distribution would likely matter if that expansion occurs.
Ansem supplies an infrastructure route to the same outcome: mobile apps, equity perps, and much larger pools of assets moving on-chain. If hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars live where customers already trade, some users may explore other on-chain assets. Insentos’s version is simpler: the market needs “more players” who might otherwise be sports betting or playing blackjack.
14. Zcash’s broken support moves Ansem’s preferred entry toward $750
Ansem says Zcash failing to hold around $1,400 was an early warning because one of the strongest coins had stopped acting strong. Under his current scenario—ETH around $1,800 and Bitcoin in the mid-to-high $60,000s—he wants to consider buying Zcash around $750. His enthusiasm is conditional on that deeper market reset, rather than a claim that the current decline has finished.
Mayne identifies $750–$900 as potentially good value because it would retest an old all-time-high area. Ansem particularly likes $750, connecting it to an older high and a high from 2025. He describes that level as a place to “blind slam it,” while acknowledging that reaching it would require a substantial further deterioration in equities.
Asked why Monero does not receive the same privacy-coin enthusiasm, Ansem’s explanation is the buyer network: “the rich Bitcoiners have decided that Zcash is the private version of Bitcoin.” He is willing to follow that demand rather than argue with it. He still thinks the Monero chart looks good; the distinction he emphasizes is sponsorship and capital concentration.
Banks connects the discussion to Tool King’s distinction between coins that are money and coins that make money. Mayne expects those two categories, plus explicitly speculative memes, to command attention. He is less optimistic about the middle: tokens claiming utility through “some random bullshit” without either monetary status or meaningful earnings. That is the valuation framework he thinks is becoming clearer.
15. AI-equity profits can conceal the risk of a broken parabola
Ansem worries that memory-stock earnings are making holders less willing to sell after extraordinary appreciation. A stock trading at what investors describe as seven times earnings can still have risen 20x or moved from roughly $100 billion to $1 trillion in a year. His concern is that the apparent cheapness of current earnings becomes a reason to ignore the behavior of a crowded trade.
The analogy is altcoins: another 10x after the first 10x convinces holders that ordinary profit-taking rules no longer apply, until a 70%–80% decline arrives. “Parabolas perform the exact same way with every single asset,” Ansem argues. Even after falling around 30% from their highs, he says some memory stocks remain up roughly 3x for the year.
Mayne thinks gold also needs a reset. He says, “I think gold goes sub-$4K,” takes a substantial fall, and then bottoms; he would like to buy around $3,800–$3,700. Ansem agrees that gold went parabolic. Their point is that the pattern of acceleration and reversal can appear in commodities as well as technology shares or crypto.
The uncomfortable countercase is that Bitcoin’s bounce could be countertrend while equities only now begin their own downturn. Mayne says a 20% equity correction could still produce roughly 35% downside in Bitcoin, potentially toward $50,000. Ansem is not in that camp yet but acknowledges the logic. Crypto might bottom before equities, just as Bitcoin can bottom before related listed stocks.
16. Lilly, Nike, and Take-Two supply trades outside the AI-spending cycle
Ansem identifies Eli Lilly as one of the stocks that looks good and says Tool King described it as his largest position by a wide margin. His thesis centers on effective weight-loss drugs and sustained demand from people wanting to become fitter. He sees that business as comparatively unconnected to AI overinvestment, with the possibility of substantial profits over the next few years.
Mayne discloses a Nike long at $35 with a $32 stop, looking for a potential recovery toward $50–$60. His premise is mean reversion after a roughly five-year bear market, persistent customer appeal, and earnings beats despite widespread negativity. Ansem initially asks, “Really? Why?” before looking at the chart and recognizing that the shares have fallen around 80%.
Ansem’s conditional Nike setup is a recovery above approximately $39–$40, which could open a move into the gap toward $50. He agrees that they should search for businesses outside AI because some could perform differently while that sector corrects. Mayne broadens the hunting ground to commodities and retail; the expressed preference is for distinct drivers, with price levels still defining individual trades.
Take-Two interests them because of GTA VI and the recurring online business that may follow. Mayne acknowledges a bearish chart but calls it potentially the biggest-selling game ever, comparing a roughly $20 share price around GTA’s earlier launch period with about $200 now. They like the swing-low area, allowing for a dip below $185. His conviction is also personal: at 36, he plans to take launch day off to play.
17. NFTs retain a status thesis if digital ownership becomes easier to display
Banks remains bullish on long-term digital property: buildings, virtual real estate, skins, and collectible objects. He calls CryptoPunks “digital Picassos.” Mayne owns a Punk partly as historical exposure and notes that the collection has survived multiple cycles. Their argument concentrates on recognizable provenance and scarcity, rather than expecting every abandoned NFT project to recover alongside it.
Their most concrete imagined setting is a Ready Player One-style world with social-platform-scale participation. Banks asks what an alien CryptoPunk would signify if billions of people could see its owner walking around digitally: someone who was present in 2017, or someone able to spend tens of millions later. Mayne connects that intuition to the established desire for distinctive Counter-Strike skins.
Insentos thinks integration is the missing piece. People already spend $50,000–$100,000 on desirable social-media usernames because those are visible status markers; attaching NFTs more directly to accounts could serve a similar purpose. Banks ties the demand to existing purchases of watches, supercars, and art. The prospective use depends on platforms making ownership legible to other users.
Banks also emphasizes CryptoPunks’ relative resilience through what he calls “NFT Armageddon,” when many other collections fell 99.9% and the category became unfashionable. Mayne points out that a floor around $60,000 is still expensive. For them, the persistence of a substantial price after the broader collapse supports keeping some exposure, even while the larger integration thesis remains future-facing.
18. Anthropic optimism meets the possibility of strong local models
Mayne is relatively bullish on Anthropic, saying it has been cash-flow positive over the last few months. He understands concern about a business apparently spending $2–$3 to make $1, but thinks the shorter recent window changes the assessment. An IPO could nevertheless mark a local top: he imagines an initial rise and subsequent equity-market pullback, comparing that possible path with SpaceX’s IPO.
His caveat comes from a technically informed friend who thinks local models will approach 90%–95% of frontier-model capability while running entirely on a phone. Mayne presents that as something coming, rather than a capability he has demonstrated. It is the competitive uncertainty he attaches to his otherwise positive assessment of the company and the usefulness of its product.
Banks supplies a different example of AI’s appeal through Instinct, an invite-only assistant he has heard praised by his manager and Frank. The illustration is asking by text for balloons, flowers, and a personalized note to arrive at a girlfriend’s hotel room, or for flights and dinners to be booked. He describes reported capabilities; the discussion does not establish that he has used it himself.
19. Wealth protection becomes a debate about how much disruption to prepare for
Mayne says Drew Tang has been warning him, “Exchanges first, banks next,” and recommending physical cash, gold, and silver. Figures discussed include $10,000 cash and $10,000–$20,000 gold. Mayne understands wanting to protect children and future generations, but questions how far to take it: moving into the woods, withdrawing bank balances, and abandoning ordinary life can become its own burden.
His strongest example is friends’ account of a Portuguese power outage lasting up to 72 hours: the first night brought candles and parties, then refrigeration, water, and basic services failed, with looting reportedly beginning by day two. Ansem sees inexpensive preparation as an extension of crypto’s self-reliance. Both still hope the surrounding fears are a “nothing burger”; neither claims to know what will happen.
20. Persistent oil strength complicates the hoped-for market reset
Ansem and Mayne doubt that ending the Iran conflict would automatically send oil back to $70. Ansem’s concern is that prices remain close to highs while there is no obvious quick solution, including through further war. Mayne thinks Iran has proved more resilient than expected and criticizes the contradiction between Trump campaigning against wars and entering one.
Ansem says the futures curve has also begun turning upward, which he interprets as concern about next year rather than only an immediate supply shock. His causal chain is higher oil, more inflation pressure, less room for Federal Reserve cuts, and less economic stimulation. He explicitly wishes he had deeper geopolitical expertise; his confidence is greater in the market constraint than in predicting the conflict.
Mayne earlier offers a more constructive countercase: if markets sell off on the possibility of renewed war after the midterms and that escalation does not happen, the reversal can create attractive longs. Ansem agrees. His broader observation is that recent corrections price fear unusually quickly, potentially reaching important support levels faster than older market patterns would suggest.
21. Failed equity breakouts demand a faster change of bias
Ansem stresses how abruptly the picture changed: two weeks earlier the equity chart looked “perfect.” Mayne’s rule at all-time highs is correspondingly direct: buy a breakout that holds, but close and potentially flip short when price returns below it. The difficulty is psychological—changing from maximally bullish to bearish near a top—rather than identifying the failed breakout after the fact.
Mayne gives an ES level as “76.20” (the transcript does not clarify its scale) and an NQ level of 28,820; losing them on a three-day or weekly close would break structure. He says previous weekly structure breaks on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have produced at least 10%–20% corrections.
They emphasize that a 10%–12% equity decline can be an ordinary pullback and still be painful for crypto. Mayne expects Bitcoin often to fall roughly twice as much. Ansem contrasts this with 2017, when buying Bitcoin’s new highs repeatedly worked; by 2021, false breakouts were punishing that habit. Mayne now often views a new high as a possible deviation to fade.
22. Bitcoin’s spot discount and reclaim levels define the immediate trade
Mayne says spot Bitcoin is trading about $150 below perpetual futures, with recent declines led by spot selling. Ansem explains the distinction: Coinbase’s BTC/USD market involves actual cash purchases and sales, while the Binance BTC/USDT perpetual market permits leveraged positioning. Futures trading above spot suggests more aggressive leveraged buying while cash holders sell, which both regard as an unfavorable near-term combination.
Around the initial breakdown, Ansem’s practical instruction is to reduce risk below Monday’s range and wait for a recovery, approximately $79,400 on BTC and $2,300 on ETH. If price reclaims the range on a four-hour close, buying back may cost only a few percent. “You sold here, you panicked, but you panicked first” captures his preference for accepting that cost over an uncontrolled further decline.
The larger downside question is the reaction around $75,000. Mayne does not consider a brief sweep below it inherently bearish; his 2023 comparison actually allows for that move followed by a rapid recovery. Sustained trading underneath is more concerning. A fast equity flush could take BTC toward $60,000, still above the roughly $58,000 prior low discussed by the pair.
Their bearish view also has an invalidation. Ansem says an aggressive return above the broken range could make him flip long again; Mayne names $81,150 as his improving level. Both want the daily and four-hour closes to confirm the breakdown. Ansem still expects equities to pull Bitcoin lower, but expressly allows that a strong reclaim would make him wrong for now.
23. Altcoin exits and future bids require different decisions
ETH looks weaker than Bitcoin because it has already broken the comparable range, with Ansem watching roughly $1,800–$1,700 below. SOL is nearer its low but has spent a long time in the broader consolidation. He wanted it to hold above approximately $100–$120; returning deeply into that old range undermines the breakout he had hoped would become support.
NEAR illustrates the distinction between a good narrative and a deteriorating position. Ansem recalls first buying around $1.70 and still likes its intents, AI-agent, and programmable-privacy themes. But after roughly 40 days of consolidation, he identifies the first meaningful breakdown candle as a reasonable de-risking point. Under his bearish-majors scenario, he thinks it could return toward approximately $3–$2.50.
Mayne prepares for corrections by identifying weekly demand before the sell-off and setting bids or alerts. The alert should preserve the original reason: “this is where you wanted to buy a couple weeks ago.” Ansem agrees that this is easier with cash buying spot than with leveraged knife-catching. A level that looks attractive today can look terrifying once consecutive red candles carry price into it.
PEPE’s resilience leaves Ansem genuinely unsure. The team discusses the alleged hacker holding about 2% of supply, roughly $40 million, while Hyperliquid funding reaches an annualized minus 408%; nevertheless, the coin is down only around 10% and bouncing. He wonders about complacency, limited remaining sellers, or simple indifference. His objection to declaring victory is temporal: “it’s only been an hour.”
24. Monday’s range is one application of the same candle logic
The pair test their chart reading through a Polymarket 15-minute Bitcoin up/down market, choosing green. Mayne’s reasoning includes a sweep of the previous 15-minute low and a small five-minute doji, suggesting a possible turn. The candle closes green “just barely.” They enjoy the result, while the reasoning they discuss concerns that particular short interval rather than a change in their broader bearish positions.
Ansem explains why a short-term bounce can coexist with bearish continuation. After a 2%–3% move within 15 minutes, leveraged traders take profits, buyers absorb forced selling, and the order book needs time to populate new prices. Consolidation gives someone another potential exit or short entry near the top of the emerging range without requiring the daily bearish thesis to reverse.
Every candle can remain inside the previous candle’s range, break upward, or break downward, Ansem says. A bullish candle with a lower wick necessarily traded below its open before recovering; lower-timeframe charts reveal that sequence. Mayne connects this to ICT’s “power of three” and the alternative paths of open-high-low-close or open-low-high-close. The expected larger candle supplies a map for the smaller-timeframe entry.
Monday’s range applies that map to a week: a Tuesday or Wednesday low followed by a reclaim can support a bullish move toward Monday’s high. Mayne extends the same reasoning to a yearly open. Taking the prior year’s low and then reclaiming the yearly open early in the year could identify an important annual low, helping frame subsequent trades.
25. Two timeframes and a time limit turn the chart view into a trade
Mayne’s standing rule is to use two timeframes for every trade. The higher timeframe identifies support, resistance, demand, or the area where he expects a reaction; the lower timeframe supplies the recognizable pattern for entering and placing a stop. He thinks traders often confuse themselves by demanding that a single chart provide the level, directional context, entry, and risk definition simultaneously.
Ansem reduces entries to a small set of choices: buy support or buy a breakout, and reverse those ideas for shorts. Stops belong beyond the relevant level or prior range. The strongest setups combine a meaningful higher-timeframe level—potentially monthly support—with lower-timeframe confirmation. That alignment explains why a small chart pattern can matter at one location and be unhelpful elsewhere.
Time also provides information. Ansem wants the expected reaction to occur reasonably quickly after a lower-timeframe entry and will consider exiting when it does not. Mayne applies that principle to their current shorts: “if this thing’s getting nuked, I want it to nuke now.” The longer price lingers near entry, the less he likes the trade, even before a conventional price stop is reached.
Full transcript
Welcome back to Market Bubble, a show about investing in yourself, where we feel an overwhelming majority of young men today are in a losing position. How are we positioned? Find out today and every Thursday at 1:00 PM PST live on twitch.tv/fazebanks, as well as kick/ansom. And we're both—
Kick.com/ansom.
—and we're both live on Twitter as well.
What's up?
We're live all over the fucking place. Chat, we're gonna kick things off with some airdrops to soften the blow, because we don't have good news for you.
Bro, it's not good. It's not.
We have everything but good news. How much money do we have to give away from Phantom? Let's just fucking bang it all out, because I didn't do anything for the pre-show.
$5,000.
Let's butter these biscuits up before we break the bad news to them.
Fuck, bro.
How much do we have?
Five thousand, man.
$5,000? Okay, chat.
I like Banks Glazer. Banks Glazer is funny. He said he's—
Yeah, give it to him.
He said he's eating ice cubes for dinner. Bro, it's really tricky right now.
Yep, Banks Glazer, you're the first one.
Bro, you said it, not me.
He knows it's bad when I start putting out TA videos, bro. This is very serious. This is not a good thing.
Yeah, but when CT gets racist and starts dropping the N-bomb, isn't that bullish, though?
I'm getting mixed signals, brother. I don't know what the fuck to do.
I'm telling you, when CT gets really, really racist towards me and I'm posting a directional idea, it's usually because they're in the opposite position of that idea, which is not good for people who are—
Oh, okay. Got it.
Yeah.
Got it. Got it.
Yeah. It's unfortunate.
That tracks, too, with earlier this year when you were bullish.
Bro, when I was bullish at the bottom, people were like, “You're fucking an idiot. What are you talking about? It's going to zero.” And now I'm bearish, and people are like, “Yeah, you're an idiot again.”
It's true. So, what did you say to me right when we started up? Right when we got in the green room, you said, “Everything's nuking. Amazon's down. Fucking Nvidia's down.”
1. The Market Turns Bearish
Yeah, it's not looking great. I said last week that I kind of switched from bullish to bearish for a few reasons. There was some technical stuff for crypto, but also some uncertainty around the AI CapEx stuff going on with a lot of the megatech companies.
This is a huge earnings week. Last week was also a huge earnings week. People are essentially concerned that the estimates they have for these large companies' revenues are not meeting their expectations, and they're investing a fuck ton into AI. If that AI flow-through isn't growing their business as fast as investors are expecting, then obviously investors are reacting negatively.
We saw it with Meta last week, and we just saw it with Amazon today, which is down about 10% after hours. Intel's down 20% after hours. Google was down 10% after hours yesterday, I want to say. I'm literally getting TradingView alerts nonstop right now because shit is literally nuking.
What I was essentially saying is, if the macro and equities really haven't had a deep pullback at all since the end of 2022 and 2023, and they've dominated the risk returns this cycle, the momentum on the individual AI names has slowed down. If you pair that with some of the largest companies in the index starting to do poorly in earnings, you can see why we might see a pullback across the board. If people are de-risking in equities, that's obviously not good for the riskiest asset class, which is cryptocurrency.
I do think you can make an argument for Bitcoin. I personally am not going to make that argument. I could see why you'd try to, as an asset that's kind of uncorrelated to all the AI stuff and something you want to hold when inflation is high. But Bitcoin has always served that purpose. People were buying Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation when it was at much lower prices, and people are still going to be de-risking when they think assets are selling off across the board.
Stable Ronaldo, Ronaldo on Kick, Banks Stole My Booty—you're getting $1,000. That's the kind of timing I'm on today. That's how ridiculous today is.
Oh.
Regardless of what Z's talking about—
Ugly, bro.
—obviously Z's looking at shit and not liking what he's seeing. Yeah, fully flipped bearish these last couple of weeks. You can see his thought process and how he's come to this conclusion live on his Twitter throughout the week. I encourage you guys to follow that.
People get mad when you change your opinion, which makes no sense, because you should always be open to changing your mind and your opinion about markets. That's how the best traders operate.
It's a tough spot. You have to be able to change your opinion to make money. If you think about it, when somebody is bullish, you want to be as bullish as possible when stuff is at all-time highs and trending into all-time highs, and then you have to flip bearish very quickly, close to the top, if you want to be as accurate as possible. I flipped pretty late, honestly, I think.
You're just in the business of protecting dollars and being correct.
Yeah, and that's what I said on the show. A lot of the positions I think we gave people on the show are up a lot from when we first mentioned them, and I don't think I've ever said, “Bro, you should be selling some of this stuff.” That's why I felt like it made sense to say that last week. I'm just trying to protect profits.
A hundred percent. I'm gonna grab this—
Hey, can you pull up Twitter real quick?
Pull up Twitter?
Yeah, I'll pull it up. Binance got hacked for $600 million-plus. Binance—hundreds of millions of dollars. You're lying, bro. No, right now. Right now. Check it yourself.
Wait, Binance just got hacked?
Pull up Twitter. He said, “Put Twitter on the main screen.”
You know what's sick, by the way? I had a dream last night, and this is 100% real. I had a fucking dream last night that Bitcoin wicked to zero, and AGI—I swear to God on my life—quantum hacked Bitcoin. I had that fucking dream.
Stop, bro. Zero, my nigga?
Yeah, it went to zero and everybody lost everything.
We gotta pull up Twitter.
On God, I had this dream last night. On God. On everything that I love, it was a fucking nightmare. I was running around like a chicken with its head cut off.
Bro, it says, “Binance hot wallet looks to be getting drained for $2.5 billion.” Bro, what?
There's no way.
Check the TG.
Wait, hold on. Is this it? There's no way.
Bro, what the fuck?
No, it's real. It's real.
This is real? I'm looking at Spreaker, trying to figure out if it's real or not.
$1.7 billion.
Bro.
Dude, fuck. That's really not good.
Bro, what?
Yeah, things are dumping bad. It's bad. It's really bad.
Oh my God. Bro, what the fuck? Kat, didn't I literally tell you?
What?
Before I walked up here, I literally told you shit was not gonna be good today, bro. I told you shit was not gonna be good today, bro. We're fucking nuking.
I was like, “This is fine,” and then—
Oh my God, bro.
—then you said—
Literally five minutes ago, word for word, I said, “Bro, today is not gonna be good. It's not looking good.” People are like, “Crypto's holding on. Equities are moving.” Bro, this shit is fucking nasty. What the fuck? Oh my God, fuck.
Yeah, it's brutal.
The thing is, this is not a good spot for us to be selling off. What I said on stream, in the video the other day, is this move is extremely thin. There's not a lot of support right here. That's why I said I think ETH is gonna go to $1,800.
Like, this is… Bro, there’s no support down here. This is breaking the most important level on the chart for Bitcoin and ETH. Bitcoin at least has $75K, but ETH is just… Bro.
Yikes, man.
Oh my God, what the fuck?
That’s bad.
What the fuck?
In that case—hey—
This is brutal.
Let’s see, what are you doing in 17 minutes?
In 17 minutes, I have to hop on the fucking Coinbase earnings call.
I think I fucking half-ported Hyperliquid—
Oh.
—at $25.
Yeah, you should sell it.
I know. I should.
Fuck, this is not a good time to be live, bro. I need to be clicking buttons right now.
Yeah, it’s fucked up.
Oh my God, bro. Brutal. Absolutely brutal.
Bro, a $2.5 billion hack?
Is that confirmed? Like, genuinely?
They got the ETH.
What the fuck?
Oh my God.
Yikes, man.
Yeah, Tree News flagged it: “Withdrawing billions in over 60 tokens to an address funded by Tornado Cash 16 minutes ago. Details are still unclear.” This is not good, bro. This is bad. This is a “de-risk some positions now” kind of bad.
Yeah, unfortunately, I can’t do that.
I know. I’m speaking to—
To the audience.
—to the audience, bro.
Um—
It’s very rare that you catch… Okay, I’m going to see if I can explain. You catch something—
Switch it back then. Switch it back.
How do I go to my laptop? Oh, here.
Petty Lane getting drilled fast.
Drilled. Drilled. I literally said earlier, in the video I put out this morning, that when you break beneath Monday’s range, this is a good spot to de-risk. You can just wait for this range to get reclaimed. If you sell as this is breaking, you can wait for it to get back above this level, which is around $79.4K for BTC and $2,300 for ETH. You don’t miss much. Okay, you miss a few percent. But if you don’t de-risk into this candle and it sells off another 10% from here, and you’re seeing this happen in real time, it’s kind of like, “Why?”
Yeah.
That’s how I would trade it, to be honest. This is the 15-minute close. If this is going to be bullish and sweep this, you’re going to see it get back above here relatively quickly. Then, on the four-hour, if it closes back in this range, you can be like, “Okay, cool. You sold here, you panicked, but you panicked first.” When you have confirmation that it’s not an issue, you buy back. I think this is going to stay beneath this low. I think it’s going to trend lower. It’s basically the same chart across the board. We haven’t really seen the liquidations yet. This is just the first round of panic. Not to scare people, but a lot of people—
I really should’ve just woken up and sold everything. I really had that dream.
Yeah.
It was brutal. It felt so real.
Yeah, no, I feel you.
I woke up and I was like, “Oh, thank God.” The first thing I did was check the price of Bitcoin.
Damn, I wish it had been delayed. You had the intuition, though.
I know. Fuck. Should’ve been me.
Yeah, I woke up at 3:00 a.m. this morning and was like, “Bro, I am so bearish. I need to record a video and post it on Twitter.” And that’s what I did.
All the profits we made on HYPE are just fully wiped out. See ya.
You’re still up a lot from the ICE integration thing, though.
Yeah. Big time. Thank fucking God.
Oh.
I have a lot of money in Bitcoin as well, and my average entry in this last batch is around $70K.
Yeah, that’s why during this whole trend, people were like, “Oh, Bitcoin’s holding $80K, it’s fine.” People are basically complacent because they bought way down here. I think now is when you’re starting to see these people—
Someone said, “Banks, give the airdrop to yourself.” That’s hilarious.
That’s pretty funny.
Slam, Slam, I got you.
That’s pretty funny.
That’s deserving. Slam6389, $1,000. We gave away $3K, so we owe you guys $2K more.
This is brutal.
You’ve got to go in 12 minutes, right?
I’ve got to go ask questions, bro. What the heck?
Well, we’re going to be watching, so ask the right questions. Go nuts. Go nuts.
I’ve got some good questions, at least. I do have some good questions. Chat, how are we feeling? How are we feeling, chat?
What the fuck?
21 Ansem. Bro, I don’t look like 21 Savage, bro. I don’t look like 21 Savage. And I need y’all to stop saying that.
Why do they keep saying that?
I don’t look like 21 Savage. Y’all are racist, bro. You are. You know? You are, bro. It’s fucked up. It is. It’s fucked up.
Who do you mostly get? Is that what you get, 21 Savage?
Bro, you know who I’ve gotten before?
I get—
I’ve gotten fucking DeMar DeRozan. I think that’s honestly worse than 21 Savage.
DeMar DeRozan. I need to… Nah.
That’s what I said. I said, “Bro, nigga ugly, dog. What the hell?” Fucked up. Okay.
I get MGK and Post Malone.
That’s funny.
The tattoos and just the—
Ah.
Hey, is the Binance hack bullish for Zcash?
Is the Binance hack bullish for Zcash?
What are they going to buy? What are they going to buy?
Maybe. I think people are just going to panic, to be honest, but… Oh.
It’s fucking brutal, man.
How does Binance get hacked? Binance? Binance, bro? Binance, bro?
Biggest hack in crypto history.
We’ve got $2K more to give away. Chat, I just want to quickly gauge: regardless of what he’s saying right now, I’m sure we’re going to see overwhelmingly bullish or bearish responses. Are you bearish right now or bullish? We’ll give the last $2,000 to a bear and a bull, respectively. Maybe add a little context, too, to stand out. But I want to see where you guys are at right now. Optimistic.
2. Hyperliquid Lands TradFi Support
Damn. I mean, I’m optimistic in the long term, too. I think the Hyperliquid news today is honestly sick as fuck. We haven’t talked about that. The partnership between Hyperliquid and the Intercontinental Exchange—ICE—is huge. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange announced an official partnership with Trade.xyz, the company that enables all the equity perps and spot trading of assets on Hyperliquid. I think they do about 50% of Hyperliquid’s volume right now. They’ve been fucking crushing it.
That’s huge. I think it gives credence to the fact that blockchain systems are much better for finance and trading all these assets, and that a lot of people are actually going to use Hyperliquid under the hood to do all these things. I think perpetual futures are probably crypto’s greatest invention, to be honest. We’re going to start seeing that instrument used a lot more throughout TradFi. That’s definitely a huge win for crypto in general, and it’s going to continue to proliferate across finance.
It’s also going to be huge for stablecoins. I think what people forget is that if Hyperliquid, as a venue, is going to get billions or trillions of assets on its platform, that’s also huge for the amount of stablecoins that are going to be on its platform. That’s great for the U.S. dollar, which is why I think all these huge agencies and the U.S. government are going to continue to support them and these partnerships.
I think a great opportunity over the next few years is going to be the front ends that enable equity perps on Hyperliquid. As far as I know, Hyperliquid is heavily focused on the back end and less on the mobile and front-end side of things. I think there’s going to be a lot of gamification around the apps that are first movers there. Another interesting opportunity that’s been under the radar is Elysium, so Kinetic. Kinetics, which is the L2 building on top of Hyperliquid. I think it launches next week, November 9. Their token, KNTQ, is going to get a lot of interest in that ecosystem. HyperEVM is extremely slow, and there’s never really been a lot of activity there, which is why Kinetiq is building an L2 on top of Hyperliquid. That’s a very interesting spot.
It’s pretty split down the middle in the chat, bullish and bearish. I don’t know what that means, but—
Well—
Somebody said, “Banks, go piss.”
That’s funny.
Yeah, it’s honestly coming up on that, maybe in the next 5 or 10 minutes. This fool’s got my routine and my schedule on lock.
Yeah, that’s pretty funny. Oh, HYPE is ripping.
Is it?
Yeah, HYPE’s ripping. Good bounce on HYPE. I mean, bro, the other part of the ICE announcement: Stanley Druckenmiller invested in Trade.xyz, which is fucking crazy. He’s one of the best investors of all time. He had 30% year-over-year returns for 30 years straight, with no losing years. He’s a fucking beast, and he invested in Trade.xyz. His first tweet ever was about being bullish on Hyperliquid and investing in Trade.xyz.
I think that’s also unlocking a lot of TradFi capital that’s going to want exposure to crypto. I’m like, “Why would I not buy HYPE if fucking Stanley Druckenmiller is buying HYPE?” He bought PER and invested in Trade.xyz. He double-dipped. I think that’s going to be great for flows, to be honest. Oh, I think I’ve got to hop to this fucking earnings thing.
Yeah, three minutes. In six minutes, or now? Chat, we’re gonna watch it. We’re gonna chit-chat through it.
Wow, what a day.
Oh, fuck, dude. We didn’t even really crack any of the shit we wanted to talk about. Obviously, this takes precedence. It’s happening live in real time. Can we get some updates on this Binance hack? Where was the hack?
Yeah, what—
Where was the hack? Where is this $2.5 billion coming from? What is this—
It said it was their hot wallet, so Binance’s hot wallet. Somebody drained it and sent it through Tornado Cash, I think.
It’s funded by—
Or funded by—
Are we sure it got drained and they’re not just moving money around?
It says, “Binance sees unexplained outflows to freshly created addresses funded by Tornado Cash.” Yeah, what if it’s some AI shit?
Dude.
Damn, bro, we literally just said the uncertainty around AI is getting good enough to hack shit now. This is the very first time AI is getting good enough to hack all this shit. We’re in a period that’s not gonna happen again. The period where AI is getting good enough to break a lot of these systems, and we have to respond in real time to them getting broken, is only gonna happen once.
Yeah, facts.
So it’s like the most—
Pre-AI and then post-AI.
We’re at the most uncertainty right now. What people have been saying is that crypto is hardened against it, which I think Zcash definitely is. Our system should be hardened against some of it, but there’s just so much that can fucking happen, bro. I don’t know. Oh, XMR is pumping. Monero’s pumping.
I think now is definitely a good spot to really—
Polymarket got hacked today too.
Yeah, what the fuck? It’s really bad. “Wait till a bank gets hacked,” somebody said.
Fuck, bro.
Chat, I’ll give away the last $2K when Z dips off to this Coinbase thing as he preps, and then we’ll all watch it together.
Okay.
Let me go take a piss before you dip, so chat isn’t left alone.
Damn, nasty candles, dude. What the fuck? Bro, did I not literally say—
On the top, on the dot, dude.
On the dot.
On the dot.
Oh my God, bro. I’ve been up since 3:00 AM. I said, “Bro, today is not gonna be good.”
You look like it.
I’ve been up since 3:00 AM, bro. I woke up at 3:00 AM today. I said, “Bro, today is not gonna be good.”
I need you to share your sleep data with me.
Bro, when I’m hella active trading the market, it’ll just wake me up and I’ll be up. Just up.
Well, do you have Eight Sleep?
No.
Well, let’s get that.
I need an Eight Sleep.
All right.
Yeah, add it to the production cost.
Yeah.
Add it to the production cost. He needs sleep so he’s awake and can talk on stream. I tried to get my money on Paper Trade, but that shit’s still waiting. Yeah, I have some positions open on Paper Trade right now too, though. You probably can’t even close them because of the delay. “Ansem, you did this to us.” No, I didn’t, bro. You think I hacked Binance, dog?
Yo.
You think I nuked Amazon and Intel? You think I have that much power, bro? You’re fucking crazy. I just sensed that something was wrong. I don’t know what it was, but I just sensed something was wrong. I don’t even know how to explain it. Niggas be like, “Why’d you flip from bullish to bearish?” I don’t fucking know, bro, to be honest. It’s a gut feeling. These charts are disgusting right now. Oh my God. That’s fucking gross, bro. I literally said this shit was gonna happen today.
On the—you said it was gonna happen now.
Oh, fuck, bro. Stable Ronaldo, they’re gonna send it to you after the show. All right, bro, I gotta hop on this fucking Coinbase shit.
Bet.
Wish me luck.
Of course. Production, do we just switch to this, I guess? Is this what we’re doing? Then I can do my laptop type shit? Yeah, okay, this is what we’ll do. Fuck, chat. Yeah, it’s bad. I’m not gonna lie, my instincts are telling me to sell it all. If I was home right now, I’d probably be selling everything off, or at least de-risking a pretty significant amount. I pulled FOMO out and just fucking sold a bunch of Zcash. Oh, this is so brutal. Fuck. Yikes, man. Yikes.
How’s your dog, Penny? She’s fantastic. Let’s give away these other two. Production, can you give me some comms on when we’ll be watching this Coinbase thing? I think we should watch the whole thing, whatever he’s experiencing and watching, so we can do the whole recap. He’s going last, I guess, right? From what I heard, we’re gonna lose Z for 30 minutes. He’s still live, obviously. Oh, okay. Cool, cool, cool.
So let’s do these airdrops. We have two more racks to give you guys. I know I said I’d give $1,000 to a bear and $1,000 to a bull, so make your case. Why are we bullish? Why are we bearish? You’re gonna get one each. Is that Crack Baby? Did I just see Crack Baby in the chat? Crack Baby, you want this $1,000 airdrop, brother? I don’t wanna see you on Patreon. You’re too funny. You’re too talented, bro. You’re a funny guy. Was that actually him? My favorite streamer.
Crack Baby, I know you secretly fuck with me too. That’s the best part. It’s forbidden love, though. Can I be a bear? I mean, make your case, bro. It wouldn’t surprise me if Crack Baby was low-key drilling charts and trading crypto, trading markets. That wouldn’t blow my mind. He’s always at his desk. Mods, is that actually him? I can’t click on it right now. You know what, man? Fuck it. Crack Baby, $1,000 to you. Fuck it. That’s the bear. Even if it’s a fake Crack Baby, you know ball. You know we’re fans of Crack Baby on this stream. Whoever the fuck that is on Twitch, give him $1,000. Get their Solana address.
Bulls, make your case. Make your case. Bullish because it’s all up from here? Let’s hope you’re right, brother. They’re live? Okay. We’re gonna switch over in a second, but I gotta give this last $1,000 to Chatski.
Bullish because Druckenmiller. You know what? Bullish HYPE because Druckenmiller. Give that kid the $1,000. I like that. I don’t know who said that, but yeah, that’s a good reason to be bullish, to be honest. Motherfucker’s the greatest investor of all time talking about Hyperliquid. It’s his only fucking tweet, and he made his Twitter 4 years ago. Are we supposed to be bearish Hyperliquid after a tweet like that?
Thanks, Legs Kate. It’s the only on-chain position that I have outside of majors, obviously, outside of Zcash and POMP. It’s the only fucking meme coin I own. I’m down a lot on it, but you can’t fade a delusional community. You just can’t. That’s my whole thought process on it. Again, I’m down like 80 bands on it, so we’ll see where it goes. But to be fair, it’s been a nice flight to safety for people who are in the trenches and on-chain. Everything else has been obliterated, banished to the shadow realm.
Bro, it’s really gonna make my whole day if that was actually Crack Baby in my chat. Crack Baby, take that rack and just spend it on Chrome. That’s all I ask. Just spend it on Chrome. Can we agree on that? Go buy a pair of socks or a pair of sunglasses. Can you get a pair of Chrome shades for $1,000? Yeah, you can. Go buy a pair of sunglasses, brother, or a pair of socks on me, for the culture.
So yeah, we gave chat $5K or whatever. We’re switching—whatever. What do I do? “Deleted the tweet. Hack is probably real. GG.” Binance deleted the tweet. Hack is probably real. GG. That’s a live update.
Go to what? What’d you say? Telegram? Got it. We’re here. Yep. Yep. All right, chat.
It’s really a good segue. Terrific—
Is he live on it?
Sequential growth in prediction market—
Or when is he jumping on this?
—revenue. One of the questions we get a lot is about trends in consumer transaction revenue and take rate.
Thanks. Are you long Rasmer? I’m extremely long Rasmer.
Can you help us parse a little bit how much—
If Rasmer was a chart, by the way, he’s almost guaranteed to 10x from where he’s at in the next year or 2. Almost guaranteed. I’d bet my fucking life on that. Look at the trajectory he’s been on. He understands content; he understands attention. I’m extremely bullish Rasmer. Extremely bullish.
Overall spot crypto trading was actually down. We saw overall crypto spot trading volume down 10% quarter over quarter. The growth in prediction markets offset the decline in overall spot trading, and we delivered flat revenue quarter over quarter. The mix shift is there. And when we look at the mix of overall revenue—
What the fuck are they talking about? Listen, there’s blood in the streets. I’m losing money. Brian, fucking do something.
Predictions plus derivatives, so those 2 combined—
The fuck?
—were about 25% of our total transaction revenue. And if I look at our total revenue, subscription services was roughly 49% of total net revenues. So we are seeing the investments that we’ve made over the past few years to really diversify our revenue bear benefit, as—
Brian, put a fucking cape on.
—I love that Brian says there’s always a market somewhere. And so people are shifting their trading behavior to us as the most transparent, widest, and deepest markets they want to trade in. What we saw right now and in this quarter—
We all know you have laser fucking, laser-eye vision—
—a lot of that was around predictions. But I also want to share with you, this isn’t cannibalizing our spot trading.
—and superhuman strength. Fucking save us now.
What we’ve seen is this is all incremental, and when we look at our trading profile, people are still continuing to trade spot, just maybe at a lesser level than they did in past quarters, and they’re putting incremental dollars to trade in prediction markets and derivatives markets.
Or I’m gonna tell you to kill yourself in GTA on Twitter now. Somebody said John Cena. That’s good.
So really, these are additive to our overall trading volume.
100. One, who is it? By the way, can we just talk about how we got blindsided by this big Binance hack and the Hyperliquid shit? There’s a lot happening this morning. There’s a lot happening today. But can we just talk about how CT cannot help itself? It has to be somebody’s fault. It’s my fault or it’s Ansem’s fault. Markets could be down. Binance got hacked for $2.5 billion, and you can bet your life there’s gonna be a thread about how it’s Frank DeGods’ fault, or how it’s Ansem’s fault, or how it’s Brian Armstrong’s fault.
It’s gotta be somebody’s fault. It’s Pump.fun’s fault. I nuked the fucking market. Fuck it, I hacked Binance. I’m running away with $2.5 billion. I’m gonna buy Core, and we’re all gonna be one big happy family. And honestly, I’m kicking everybody except Crack Baby. That’s right. Crack Baby’s in. You guys are out.
Honestly, Crack Baby, are you still here? Just fucking call me at this point. I think we start FaZe, we run it back for the 10th time right here, right now. Who’s the lineup? Is Crack Baby still here? Let’s just relaunch this shit with Crack Baby, Cuffem, and Neon. Honestly, that’s fucking cinema.
Who else, Crack Baby? Let’s just throw D-Lu in there too. That’s cinema. You and D-Lu on bunk beds, bro. That’s a fucking movie. Come on. J-Shock. Oh, that’s good. That’s good. I might have to plan some shit for April. April 1st. See, Crack Baby, I know ball. I be watching the stream. I know.
B-Lou. No, Zias and B. Lou, it’s not toxic enough. Yeah, FaZe Rain. Just let him do it. Fuck it. Bro, this earnings call—where the fuck is he at? I’m just waiting for him to get on so we can watch this shit, because I don’t know what the fuck. I don’t know what—another 11 minutes? Oh, and then he’s gonna jump off for 10 minutes. That’s what’s happening? I got it.
I agree with you, chat. Listen, this is why I have absolutely no—I’m being genuine right now. I’m not playing a game. I’m not being funny. I actually genuinely think Crack Baby’s hilarious, and I fully respect how loyal he is to Silky. These kids grew up together. This fool would never, for any amount of views or money, turn on this kid. He blindly agrees with everything that he says, as you fucking should. That’s your boy, your day one off stream before all this shit.
Whatever. I’m not gonna knock the kid or hold it against him because me and this fool have an issue over some shit that didn’t work out. We’re not—You know what I mean? Yeah, you can’t. And I agree with that fully. I wish I had more people like that in my life, personally, and that’s really where all the pain comes from. That’s where all this back-and-forth, all this shit, comes from.
I’m an emotional kid, you know. That’s gonna piss you guys off too. “Kid? Kid, bro, you’re pushing 40.” And he’s just funny. He doesn’t take shit too seriously. It’s like Cuffem, but a little bit more for me, as opposed to—I feel like Cuffem’s a little bit more for kids. And I mean that respectfully. Cuffem’s crushing it, and he’s funny as fuck. I’ve known Cuffem since he was a baby as well.
Yeah, the fact that he’s 32 doesn’t surprise me. It totally tracks, totally makes sense. This is why. He’s not taking shit too seriously. AllPurple47, I don’t know why the fuck you got banned for asking that, but yeah. You know what, mods? Unban everybody. Whoever’s been banned up to this point, just unban them. A lot of these fools popped into the first couple streams anyways, and I know shit was hectic. It was a fucking war zone in here for the first few streams, but I think it’s—
He said, “Oh, here we go.” Is that crazy? Why, do they get notified and shit? It’d be kinda funny. Bloodbath incoming. Fuck it, there’s already blood in the streets. I’m down a smooth—I’m down like a million dollars today. I must be. I’m definitely down seven figures. No Hype’s keeping us afloat. What the fuck? I mean, I’m down $150,000 just between CATE and Zcash, and then I have a pretty fat Solana position that’s down 10%. PUMP’s also probably down. It adds up. It adds up.
Who hacked BNB? AI, probably. AI. Fuck. I freed the prisoners. AllPurple, you should be unbanned now, so sorry about that. The Camilla shit happened a long time ago, too. That was insane. We have 7 minutes to kill. Oh my God. How’d Allen Iverson do that? That’s funny.
Damn, we should’ve planned for a Crack Baby segment. Me and Crack Baby on a call during this 20-minute buffer? Movie. Crack Baby, get my number from Silky and call me. Oh my God. Do I like Blade? I’m fucking 40 years old, brother. I know nothing about Blade. I like that you guys like him. Drain Gang. Thoughts on the new Post Malone album? Haven’t listened to it.
“You’re actually 40?” Imagine there was a 40-year-old guy walking around with a 6'5" frame, fucking gorgeous blue eyes, a hammer, sorta rich, looking like me. If this is what I look like at 40 years old, it’s like—No, I’m 35. I think I’m crushing it, though, at 35. You guys will see.
The average median age of people in here is like 25, 26. You guys know what it is. People graduate high school, and an overwhelming majority of people fall off a fucking cliff. That can’t be Crack Baby. It just can’t be. It can’t be. I refuse to believe. Fuck, man. Dude, I should be home selling everything right now. I’m talking to Crack Baby in a Twitch chat. I really have lost the fucking plot. Maybe you guys are right.
You literally click—I can’t click his fucking profile. I’m on a set. I’m on a whole-ass set. I have mods, I have production here. I can’t click on his fucking profile. I mean, I guess on my laptop I could go do it, maybe. No, you guys don’t need to worry about it. I’m just fucking with chat.
Wow.
Yeah, it’s fine. Production is confirming that is indeed Crack Baby. Let’s do the pre-show next week together, the 30 minutes, just me and you, one-on-one. CZ tweet. Let’s go see. Am I getting baited? Am I getting baited? Oh, CZ did in fact tweet a minute ago. Good shit, chat. Good shout.
“User funds are safe. It does look like a hack on Binance. Appreciate the quick freeze from Tether and Circle. I don’t manage Binance.com anymore, but as a shareholder, I expect all user funds will be fully recovered.” Whoa. So Tether and Circle froze it. W Cabal. That’s crazy. They just bailed him out of this? Who the fuck hacked it? Who hacked it? ZachXBT, where the fuck are you? Jesus Christ. You guys are more worried about Kimchi and if he hit $40 million than a $2.5 billion Binance hack.
What the fuck is going on? Where the fuck are you guys? What’s this fuck Brian Armstrong saying?
Brian, thanks for taking these questions. Excited to do this. Maybe I’ll start with a question on security and custody in general. There’s growing concern out there that AI could discover new algorithms that break cryptography and ECDSA in general.
Binance.
How does that change the security and custody setup? And are you accelerating the post-quantum roadmap? Just a question in terms of custody and security in general: how are you guys thinking about that?
Bro, you could’ve asked that in—
Yeah, sure.
—fucking 3 words.
Okay, so I think there are really—
AI hack scary? Question mark?
—2 separate things we look at. One is the AI trends we’re seeing, with new math proofs and security developments. Then there’s the quantum question. These are actually pretty different. When it comes to ECDSA and elliptic curve cryptography—
Crack Baby, this stream is not for you, brother.
—I’m actually not so worried about AI—
But I’ll teach you. That’d be funny.
—creating a risk there.
That’d be a funny little segment series.
There’s been something like a 40-year track record of people attempting new algorithms to make this easier to break, and they’ve basically made zero progress. It requires brute-forcing a 2^256 number, so it’s not one of these problems that I think AI is going to be able to chip away at.
Quantum is a different story. It requires a new type of computer to be built, and for it to work at scale—not just a theoretical one with a couple of qubits. I think that’s more a matter of when, not if. Eventually, a big enough quantum computer will be made that starts to make this stuff a real issue. So the quantum one is the more serious one to look at here.
To get ready for this, we’re doing a handful of things. One is that we’ve begun the work to upgrade our custody to be post-quantum. Of course, we also need the blockchains themselves to be upgraded and to be quantum-resistant. I know lots of different blockchains are working on this, and some of them have published their roadmaps.
We’ve been participating as best we can on the Bitcoin side. There’s an advisory council for Bitcoin around post-quantum that had a really good meeting we attended a few months ago at Stanford, with Dan Boneh leading it along with a number of other folks—
Bro, why the fuck do they do this?
—and that was a really great conversation that got a lot of people together in the room. I know the community has put out some of these Bitcoin Improvement Proposals, like BIP-360, and there are others. So—
Bro.
—my hope is that the Bitcoin community will find a path over the coming couple of quarters to start to coalesce around some of these proposals. That one isn’t imminent, but I do think it’s always good to be proactive and start to get ahead of these things.
I just wanted to add on and share that last time, too, we acquired a team of some of the foremost cryptography experts. This is a space, both on the quantum and AI side, that we’re monitoring very carefully internally and being really vigilant in investing resources to harden both our own ecosystem and work in partnership with the community, as Brian shared.
Perfect. Thanks.
You could—you should open with that, Brian.
Shifting to the tokenized stocks on Base: I know it’s still very early, obviously. Is the Base sequencer fee the main revenue driver going forward, or are you looking at other monetization plans? And to add to that, we’re seeing a lot of different equities tokenized by several exchanges. How do you see that fragmentation going forward, and how do you think about that?
Bro, I c—
Great question.
—I can’t do it. Chat, keep an eye on that shit and let me know when Ansem gets on. Let’s just fuck around until then. Let’s just keep talking to Crack Baby in chat, because that is fucking… Jesus Christ. It’s like Brian’s saying, “How’s the weather outside?” “Well, you see, the nimbus cloud is starting to form, and on Thursday it’s expected to…” It’s like, “Brother, is it hot? Is it cold? Is AI gonna steal all my fucking money, and did it just steal $2.5 billion from Binance?” Oh, man. I’m gonna fucking throw up. I’m gonna fucking throw up. Oh my God. Down so much money today. This is fucking brutal.
As equities, and that is what we’re doing. We are—
What’s this? Binance hack: the drain TX submitted valid nonce. Likely the hacker collected all 50 over some period of time. Correct nonces would be at the time of execution and submitted them all, except the valid one. The invalid ones get discarded. What the fuck does this mean? Can somebody who isn’t fucking retarded explain this to me? ’Cause I guess I’m just retarded.
I’m sick. I’m sick to my stomach that I’m here on fucking Twitch clip-farming Jason, JasonTheWeen, while I’m just getting fucking murdered for hundreds of thousands of dollars, and I can’t click sell ’cause I’m on fucking Twitch talking to fucking Crack Baby. It’s crazy. It’s like 500K or dinner with Crack Baby. Chat, 500K or dinner with Crack Baby? That’s good.
Produce Ansem, who’s the host of Market Bubble, to ask us some of your questions.
You didn’t do anything, brother. You’re perfect.
Here we go, chat.
Hey, how you guys doing?
W, Ansem.
What’s happening, y’all?
Yeah, thanks for being here.
Yeah, it’s cool. I know you guys are trying to verticalize a lot of the stack as a financial application, from spot trading and prediction markets to stablecoin interest and institutional trading. But there are also a lot of other companies trying to do the same thing. How do you guys differentiate those plans from your competitors?
Yeah, it’s a great question. I do think you’re right. There are more and more people coming together around this everything-exchange idea. I think it depends which competitor you’re talking about, right? There are going to be some folks who aren’t going to lean into this kind of frontier technology, whether it’s crypto, AI, perps, or prediction markets. Some of the more traditional players probably aren’t going to have all of these on one platform with a good, let’s say, agentic trading interface.
If you look at some of the more tech-forward ones, it depends. On the surface, they might look similar, but Coinbase is trying to do something a little different from the others. We’re not trying to just bring a bunch of people to Wall Street or something. We’re trying to make a new decentralized financial system that doesn’t need Wall Street and can reach the billions of people the old system didn’t really serve.
There are going to be strengths and weaknesses of each of the players, including us. I think some of the areas where we’re going to be a little stronger are on the crypto infrastructure side, because that’s more in line with our mission. Things like Base have a really large developer and onchain ecosystem around them. We co-founded USDC, and we created the x402 protocol for agentic commerce—
Coinbase co-founded USDC?
—we have really good decentralized exchange integrations.
I didn’t know that. That’s crazy.
I’d say one other advantage Coinbase has is that we serve not just consumers, but institutions, too. We have a developer infrastructure product that we sell. It’s a little easier to run a business that has just one customer, but it’s a lot more powerful if you can build the right platform to serve multiple customer types. We’ve been investing in that platform for a number of years, and I think it’s really starting to give us leverage and help us amortize what we build. We build something once in an excellent way, and we can now launch it across multiple customer segments. We can bring all these customers to a new asset or market on our exchange. It’s retail, institutional, businesses, and developers from third parties all plugging into that.
So those are some of the things we’re focused on. Actually, if I could put in one more real quick: still the majority of financial services is running on the traditional financial system. It’s probably 90% or 95%, depending on how you estimate it. All fintech companies combined are probably 5% to 10% of financial services revenue, which is a massive, massive percentage of GDP.
The real opportunity, I think, is for tech-enabled fintechs to keep growing and capture that other 90% or 95% of the market. And these new categories, like agentic finance—that’s really our opportunity. We’re going to do our best to compete, but we’re also going to create new markets and capture share from TradFi.
Production, give me control again. Let me switch back to my—
Awesome. I definitely love the points about the decentralized financial system. I know you guys recently acquired Deribit, with your focus more on the institutional investor side of things. How have you seen the growth of that product—the perpetual futures and the options—and how have your plans with that shifted with the recent shift to a more positive regulatory environment in the US?
Yeah, so we acquired Deribit, which was the largest crypto options trading platform out there, and we’re making really good progress integrating it into our—
Yo, when I click my laptop, it’s showing this. This isn’t what I’m trying to show. I’m trying to show a tweet.
…existing product. We’ve now got this unified, regulated global exchange that crosses every market: perps, options, futures.
There we go.
We’re making Deribit available to both US—
I gotta hit “Share this tab.”
…and ex-US.
Let’s… We can still hear it.
So I think we’re one of the only companies that can unify the global liquidity.
Whatever production’s in, it’s like a third party.
Historically, this was fragmented across all the offshore stuff—
Mute it and just take it off, ’cause I have it open on my laptop too. I can just switch it myself.
…fragmented across all the offshore stuff, non-US. And then in the US, we had a different world. We’re now unifying much of this, and it’s been a huge benefit for us to acquire Deribit. We’ve said publicly we’re going to actually—
See, now we’re hearing it twice.
—not just with the GENIUS Act that became law, but the SEC and CFTC have been very forward-thinking and collaborative between the 2 agencies to get more of this stuff available in the US, because they want to see the US win, and so do we.
Perfect.
Frank’s gonna save us. Save us, Frank. See, like Brian, speak like this.
…that, um, not just with the GENIUS Act that became law, but the SEC and CFTC have been very forward-thinking and collaborative between the 2 agencies to get more of this stuff available in the US, because they want to see the US win, and so do we.
Yeah. As far as the Coinbase Pro product, I actually used to use it when it was GDAX back in the day, so it’s gonna be cool—
Oh, yeah.
—to see that come back.
Nice.
I know you guys have focused a lot on regulatory stuff in DC, but I feel like you haven’t done as much on the consumer retail marketing side. It seems like a lot of the exchanges that did focus heavily on that turned out not to have the best practices behind the scenes. I’m curious if you guys have plans to do more marketing on that front, to target a different consumer or customer segment.
Yeah, I know this perception is out there sometimes that we’re more focused on DC than on traders or something like that. In the wake of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX blowing up, I remember there was this really critical moment where I felt like I had to go represent the industry there, because nobody else was doing it. In many ways, I feel like that helped the crypto industry. It could have gone really poorly under Gensler.
The industry could have effectively been banned in the US. We had to sue him and push back, and we won that case. There’s another version of history that looks a lot worse, and in many ways, I’m glad that we did that. This doesn’t mean it’s a zero-sum game. We can build products, talk to our customers, and help push the regulatory ball forward.
I’ll still be in DC periodically, but more and more of my focus is shifting to talking to our customers and improving our products. That’s gonna be my focus much more in 2027. I think I’d leave it at that.
Yeah.
Well, that’s a perfect place to end. We’re gonna focus on our customers. Thank you all for joining us for our Q&A for our Q3 2026 earnings. If you haven’t already, please go check out our presentation that Brian and I posted to our IR website, where we discuss our quarterly results. And we will see you next quarter. Thank you all.
Chat—
Good job.
—we’re gonna do one more extra little love airdrop for the people that just sat through that, because you deserve it. So say something nice to Brian Armstrong, about Brian Armstrong. W Brian, W Coinbase. Let’s get some happy Brian Armstrong love in here. Bullish Brian Armstrong chat. W Brian, Johnny Sins, whatever you want to do, and we’ll give one more person $1,000 from the chat. Something funny. Johnny Sins is played out. Bullish bald, Brian Mogs, I love Brian’s head. Slick voice. W One Punch Man, that’s the winner. That’s the winner. $1,000, W One Punch Man. That’s good. I’ve never heard anybody do that or seen that. How has nobody done this yet? Am I bugging? Spot the difference. Literally, this is what we need you to be right now. We need you to turn into One Punch Man and save the market. Unban me. All right, without further ado, can I go straight to 3BOX? Can I go straight 3BOX? Bam, there we go. Turn their mics on. Let’s go.
What’s good, Vane?
Yo, yo, yo.
Bro, what the fuck is happening today, bro?
Vane just spawned out of nowhere.
What the fuck is going on? Why?
Good take for a stream, eh?
Fuck.
We got sideswiped. We had a whole bunch of shit planned, and we kinda just got stun-locked out the gate.
Yeah. I mean, CZ—
We literally went live to the Binance hack. Just how bad is this, man? Should we be selling everything? Be honest. Just cut straight to the chase.
I don’t think so. I mean, I think—
They froze all of it.
—they froze, like, 80% of it almost instantly. So I think—
Yeah. What’s the percentage?
Circle froze, like, $800 million, and then Tether froze, like, a billion. So, of a $2.5 billion hack, to have 75% of it frozen already, not to mention what could get frozen later, I think this could’ve been way, way worse.
I agree.
Just by the skin of our fucking teeth, though, no? And who hacked this? AI?
We don’t know yet.
I mean, it’s like—
It’s gotta be AI, bro. It’s either AI or Frank DeGods.
Yeah.
Or Ansem.
Let’s start another Frank DeGods rumor.
Not me, bro.
That’s exactly what he wants.
Yeah, let’s not say it’s me, bro.
Nah, I saw Z fucking around on his phone right before Binance got hacked, bro.
No, no, bro.
I don’t know about your guys’ X feed, but mine for the last 7 days has been the most doomer ever.
That. Yeah.
I don’t know what tweet I clicked on that got me into this dark rabbit hole of, “By the way, you need 90 days of supplies or you’re gonna die.”
Yeah.
I don’t know. Are you guys taking that stuff seriously at all?
I’m not, bro. I’m not. But I feel like it’s kind of low effort to have it. I think they were talking about the internet going down and shit. Obviously, that’s a 1% or—
Yeah, the power grid.
—or lower probability. But I feel like it’s not that much of a hassle to figure out the walkie-talkie, the radio stuff, and have water. That’s the stuff I think you should have anyway. I feel like most people are just lazy and don’t have it. I don’t really think it’s gonna happen like that, obviously, but it made me think, “Well, why haven’t I done that?” It’s actually not that hard to—
Well, it’s like midterms, right?
…invest.
There’s a lot of stuff going on right now, a lot of FUD. Trump’s talking about re-upping the war with Iran post-midterms. I think this is one of those things where if the market is reacting bearishly to potential war and all this stuff, and then it doesn’t happen, those are usually actually pretty free longs.
Yeah, I agree.
Actually, that's true. Yeah, I think without all the AI stuff, the main reason I've been bearish is that I was expecting tech stocks to pull back, and they have been pulling back. But we could price in a lot of this shit really quickly. That's what I've seen happening with a lot of the pullbacks: people panic so hard and so fast that shit sells off to key levels a lot faster than it usually does. But maybe we get that.
Oh, dude, I watched your entire market update. I liked that. You should do those more. And I agree with a lot of the charts from a purely technical perspective.
Mm.
Bitcoin is still holding on, but a lot of these altcoins, things like ETH, have broken what I would argue is their daily structure.
Yeah.
That's pretty widespread across a lot of these crypto markets. A lot of these stocks have done the same thing, but equities are still holding on. I’ve got a pretty big level around 76.20 on ES. If we lose that on the 3-day or weekly, that's a structure break, and NQ has a similar level at 28,820.
Mm.
If we crack those levels, then, yeah, I agree—we'll see some downside. I could totally see Bitcoin trading back to $65K, below $70K for sure. I could see ETH going below $2K. That's not even that far from where we are now.
Yeah.
But I do think those are opportunities to bid. A lot of people are getting super bearish. If you zoom out on all these charts, a big pullback is ideally a higher low, right? I think Bitcoin putting in a higher low at $70K is a great opportunity to buy.
Yeah.
So I'm not too concerned about major doom and gloom. I'm still pretty much on the higher-low trade. Bob Loukas posted that he thinks if Bitcoin's going to go, it should go from here. If we're going to put in the higher low where we are right now, we've had 3 bearish weeks in a row, so I think this weekly candle needs to put in a swing low.
Yeah.
Otherwise, I think there's a pretty good chance we see at least below $75K.
What do you think about HYPE, bro? I feel like HYPE is the one chart that low-key didn't break down. Then we had the news come out today with the ICE thing.
Bro, as the kids would say: aura. Damn, Druckenmiller only tweets once, and it's about you?
Aura, bro.
And it's about crypto.
It's insane.
I'm like, dude, this is pretty crazy. Hyperliquid looks amazing. It's like a big weekly retest, and obviously time, price, and news are all colliding at the same spot. Maybe people will think Flood is smart again. People were pretty mean to him the last couple of weeks, and now his biggest bag is rallying again.
Yeah.
I think HYPE looks amazing. I'm hoping now we get the hundred-dollar effect. We're at $95, right? I would love for this to overshoot to $104 or $105, and then we can say, okay, $100 has been hit. That's a big psychological level.
Yeah, I agree, bro. It's super strong. I bet people are underappreciating how well they've executed over the past 3 years. They went from zero to the top of the board.
Greatest crypto project ever. Is that even a crazy thing to say?
No, I don't think so, bro.
I don't think so.
I think it's consensus, to be honest.
Yeah. The team is cracked out of their mind.
Yeah.
They're making money hand over fist. They're hitting every single vertical you could want them to hit.
Yeah.
And if they're now onboarded to the U.S. with the help of Kraken, and they're working with ICE, everything's on-chain and it all runs through Hyperliquid.
So crazy, bro. What are your guys' long-term thoughts?
The $1,000 token. I think this is like BNB 5 years ago or whatever. It seems so consensus, but if you look at the weekly chart, I can visualize this being one of those moments where people say, “Man, how obvious was it to buy that early couple-year uptrend before the absolute parabolic ascent?” Especially if Bitcoin is at the end of a bear market, worst case. Best case, we're already beginning the bull. This thing's going to go gangbusters.
Yeah, I definitely agree. I think people aren't even pricing in what happens if they're not just the underpinning for these main exchanges, but also bring the assets and people all over the world that aren't currently being traded or aren't currently on-chain. I think a lot of the FX stuff isn't even being considered right now. That's a huge, huge, huge market.
People don't realize how huge the Forex market is.
It's huge.
It's trillions and trillions of dollars.
Yeah.
And with 1,000x leverage, too. You can trade on the most random FX broker, and the liquidity is infinite. It's transacting trillions of dollars, and you get giga leverage because the moves are smaller. All of that is going on-chain. It's just an eventuality.
It's like Tool King[?] said last week: it's the coins that are money and the coins that make money that are doing just fine.
Yeah, I talked about this at Token2049 with Andy and Kyle and stuff. We finally have a clear way to value these tokens: does it make money, to your point, or is it money?
Mm-hmm.
It's going to be a whole lot harder for other projects to get any attention or momentum unless they're one of those two things, outside of pure memes. All the stuff that existed in between, where it's an altcoin that doesn't consider itself a meme coin because it does some random bullshit, is going to fall by the wayside. There are going to be the tokens and projects that make money, actual money, and then the pure speculative meme plays that we know do nothing.
Yeah.
And the good thing about that is the concentrated bid I think is happening, especially with Druck supporting HYPE. There's so much capital behind that, so much money that trusts what he says. I think Hyperliquid is fixing a lot of the perception that crypto is a scam right now.
Yeah. The way things are shaping up, I would love for the S&P 500 to drop 20%. Give us one big washout, reset everything, and then in 2027 we're back to risk-on and shit gets nutty, because it is percolating for HYPE, dude. If Bitcoin's going to $100K early next year, oh my God.
Yeah.
I saw a recent interview with Arthur Hayes where he said he thinks people are too bullish on Hyperliquid. Did you see that?
I haven't seen that.
Who tweeted this? Arthur Hayes?
It was Arthur Hayes. It was in an interview, and he was like, “I think people might be too consensus on Hyperliquid.” I'm like, “Are you just a hater?” I don't think—
Oh, I think I did see this. He was basically saying people are too consensus, like everybody—and that it's not new or whatever. Something like that.
Yeah, and I'm like, I just don't know, man. How can you not have this as one of your core pieces of your bag? I don't think there's been a more no-brainer play. I'll be interested to see how Lido responds to this, as well.
Mm.
I know they had a new announcement about what they're doing with Robinhood. It's been the most obvious beta, and it's down 40% to 50% off its high.
Yeah.
And it's coming into demand, so I think there could be a trade there, too.
Yeah. I think a lot of crypto people own less HYPE now than they did at the beginning, to be honest.
Yeah.
The crypto people got some crazy airdrops. I know I was in it super early, but a lot of people printed on that trade and were de-risking into the strength, and that shit just kept going up. A lot of people de-risked into a 10x or 20x. But it's been getting absorbed by the TradFi guys and some other larger-capital investors, obviously, like Druck and other people who've been watching it. So I actually think CT has less HYPE now than it did a year ago, to be honest.
You know what’s funny? I don’t think the average CT participant realizes how deep institutional money goes.
Yeah, for sure.
We think, “Oh, Binance getting hacked for $2 billion—this is peanuts to these institutional-level guys.” We’re talking hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars of capital. The HYPE trade, to your point, is almost like the early days of Bitcoin: Who are these weak hands? Who are the strong hands buying all the Bitcoin at these bear-market lows? It’s becoming more obvious that institutions have major interest in a few cryptos, HYPE being one of them, clearly, and Bitcoin obviously being another one, in my opinion. They have infinite money.
Yeah.
Like, infinite money. Our expectation that Bitcoin should pull back 70% to 80%—if the institutions are here, they can just decide that’s not the thing anymore. This is where the floor is, and they just make the floor.
Yeah.
And based on how Hyperliquid is trading, you almost get the vibe that they knew about this. If you’re hearing about it from Druck now, these guys are already in, right?
Yeah, for sure. Yeah.
They’re already in. If you look at the chart, from January to now—which is 10 months—this thing has just been in a giga-uptrend.
Yeah.
While Bitcoin has been in objectively a bear market.
Yeah.
So who’s doing the buying? It’s not CT, to your point. I think CT has been taking profit the entire way.
Yeah.
So, yeah, dude, it’s pretty crazy. I think that’s exciting for crypto because maybe now things are going to trade and react differently than what we’re used to.
Yeah, bro. When HYPE held $20 in January and Bitcoin dropped 30%, I was like, “Oh, okay.”
Yeah.
This is a way different situation than what we’ve had before.
Yeah, the big dogs are in the room.
Yeah. What do you think, though? Say we get the pullback in equities. I’m in the camp that we lose those 2 key levels you talked about.
Yeah.
And we get, like, a 10% drop or whatever. If we get another 10% to 15% downside in equities from here, where do you think HYPE, Zcash, and some of the other major alts, like Pump, go?
I’ve been tracking this fractal from the last bottom to now, and it’s almost identical to what Bitcoin is doing.
Yeah.
Bitcoin traded up to $25K, then it dropped to $19K.
Yeah.
That’s like a 20% pullback. So if we get a similar pullback on Bitcoin now, that puts us just under $70K.
Mm.
Depending on how bad the carnage is in equities, it could go a lot lower. The last time we topped the exact same way in equities, we pulled back anywhere from 15% to 20%.
Okay.
I think that lines up very well with Bitcoin pulling back 20% to 25%. For Hyperliquid, what I’d ideally like to see is the Hundy roll effect give us that higher high, because we still haven’t put in a higher high yet.
Yep.
Then the next higher low could be all the way back down at $80, right?
Oh, okay. Oh, okay.
Give us that higher high, because it’s been weekly retest after weekly retest on this thing.
It’s held pretty clean.
It’s insanely clean, dude.
Yeah.
I pulled up the chart on today’s move. I had that big fair value gap on the weekly, and it just took out that former low. It’s like an SFP. It’s like, goddamn, dude, why did I not—
That’s cool.
—full-port this with everybody’s money?
Yeah, bro. I was thinking the same thing. How the fuck did I see this happen and not slam this?
Dude—
By the way, I asked both of you your opinion on my trade when I basically half-ported into Hyperliquid. I told you guys—
I know.
I was like—
That’s usually how it goes, bro.
You should totally do this.
’Cause I think you were more in ETH, right? It was like, “Yeah, I’m gonna get out of ETH and I’m gonna go into HYPE.”
No, I said I’m finally gonna swap it all over. I’m just gonna position myself in Hyperliquid and Bitcoin, and that’s what I did.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And you nailed it.
Yeah.
Wait, do you trade options, bro?
A little bit.
A little bit?
A little bit. The problem I have with options is I find it hard enough to pick the direction of the coin. Trying to tell you when that move’s gonna happen as well, it just… But you get convexity as a trade-off. I’d be interested in digging a little more into it. Have you been messing around?
I haven’t yet, but I feel like it’s worth the time to spend doing. I trade a little bit, but never as aggressively as I do with perps or anything else. I’ve seen Derive doing really well with its on-chain options, and I think we’ve never seen options do well in crypto. There could be a period where they start to do well. The reason I’m asking is I’ve been watching these tech earnings plays all week, bro. Meta got crushed last week. Amazon got crushed today. Google got crushed yesterday. Intel was down 20%, got crushed. I think we’re in a rare period where people were so bullish on AI, and there’s this complacency around earnings because they’ve typically been great for everybody.
Yeah.
It’s like, damn, bro, I should’ve been in puts this week. I should’ve been in puts on some of these plays.
The problem is, do you do zero-day options? Do you do end-of-week expiries? That’s what I always find most difficult about options: picking when the contract expires and trying to better understand how to capture that convexity.
Yeah.
But yeah, dude, I agree. The issue options are going to have in crypto is, one, they’re complex. I think the average crypto participant is more dumb, for lack of a better term, than people in traditional finance.
True.
They are getting smarter, though. I had a very interesting conversation with someone. He said, “The crypto market as a whole is becoming more efficient, and the people involved are smarter now. Whether it’s from learning or smarter people are now in crypto, I think we’re going to see crypto continue to get more efficient.” But the perp is the ultimate financial instrument, dude.
I love the perp, bro.
It’s the best.
Nothing better than the perp, bro. Don’t get it.
Yeah, it’s the best. I feel like it’s going to be hard to get people away from it. The way these companies are going to have to do it is through marketing and explaining: “Hey, you can get insane convexity, and your risk can be defined by the cost of the contract.” If you spend $5,000 on a bunch of puts, that’s your max risk.
Yep.
That’s your stop loss. They can all be worthless. I’d be down to mess around with options a little and see if we can find some ways to—
Yeah.
Is Derive the best place to do it, you think, right now?
Yeah, Derive—
Easy crypto.
I think Derive for sure. I know there’s this app called Dream. I haven’t used it yet, but they’re also a mobile thing.
Dream?
Dream, I think it’s called.
Yeah. Actually, I’m a seed investor in Dream. Let’s use Dream.
Oh, really?
Yeah. Three years ago, dude. They finally launched. I’ve got to respond to that guy. He said, “Hey, dude, we’re finally live with beta,” and I was like, “Just too busy.” One of those random checks, yo.
I’m down. Where did you hear about it, Z?
Dream, I actually know the founder. I didn’t invest in it, but I met him after he—
Got it.
—raised.
But yeah, he’s just a dude on Twitter. He’s actually cool. His name’s Dom. They’re cool. I think it’ll be funny for us to do options. Bro, we trade perps all day, and then we’ve gotta learn fucking options to try to make money on options.
I like the name. Dreaming’s a good name.
Huh?
Bring in insentos.
The app is—
Bring in insentos?
It—
I think it’s insentos in the background. Can we pull the homie?
Yeah, let’s fucking pull him. Stay on, man. Stay on. Let’s all just chop it up. We got you.
Chop it.
It’ll be good to get insentos’ take and view on the markets, because he’s obviously in the trenches on-chain. He’s kind of like a new-wave trader. I think him in a conversation with you guys right now is—
What up, bro?
What up?
Could be very interesting.
What’s up? What’s up?
What up, gang?
How much money are you down today?
That’s crazy.
Actually, I’m not down. I actually owe money today, trenching.
Are you?
That’s crazy.
Yeah.
Are you shorting shit?
Nah, nah. Just trading memes, low caps, just in the field.
Really?
Yeah. Surprisingly, the trenches actually aren’t that bad.
For real?
Trenches never die, bro. I think if we’ve seen anything over the past year, people thought that shit was gonna go away. Shit is not going away. It’s not going away.
Yeah.
I was curious: when Binance is getting hacked, generally when this kind of stuff happens, Bitcoin and altcoins just nuke, right?
Yeah.
People freak out. Do you see that same effect in the trenches, where people start nuking their bags? Or are they like, “We do not care”?
Nah. I think with every piece of news, there’s always something that runs, even if it’s to a couple hundred K. There’s always gonna be something, and that’s how there’s always money to be made. There’s always gonna be a meme. There’s always gonna be a twist on a coin. So yeah, I don’t think there’s a—
I see the GTA VI coins are going crazy today. Why?
I don’t know. I saw one at around $20 million, I think, but I thought it was crazy bundled. I don’t even know. It was one of those coins—
Yeah, I was buying it three weeks ago at $1 million, and I obviously don’t own any today, of course. I’m just curious as to what the fuck’s going on.
Yeah. No one knows. I saw tweets like, “No one knows why this is up.” It’s just ridiculously high for no reason.
Yeah.
When you’re trenching, are you mostly trading new pairs? What’s your trenching setup?
A crime.
Bro, when you’re trenching, are you mostly trading new pairs? What’s your setup?
Yeah, trenching is definitely a lot different than just actually buying memes.
Yeah.
But it’s literally just new pairs. For example, today, I think the runner I hit was Elon saying “interesting” to the investor. I forgot the guy’s name.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Druckenmiller.
He’s so good. Yeah, he said, like, “Interesting.”
That was a coin?
Yeah, there was a coin called ELONG. It was paired to, like, whatever, Hyperliquid, and then the coin went to around $600K. I was like, that was a pretty good cook.
Wow, $600K. I’m not even aware this shit is happening, bro. That’s crazy.
Yeah.
Bro, I’m so washed if that’s what it takes to make a coin.
Yeah, it’s pretty crazy.
Elon has tweeted “Interesting.” That’s his favorite thing to say. He finds the most random shit and he’s like, “Interesting.”
Yeah.
Do you have a monitor for certain people’s tweets and shit? I know some people have that. Or do you just react to stuff as it gets created?
Yeah, it’s like a Twitter monitor. Also, even if you’re not paying attention to the Twitter monitor, sometimes seeing new pairs is a source of news as well. You see a coin get deployed and look at why it’s running or pumping.
Yeah. I have a lot of questions about this, because I have no idea how a lot of this shit works. I see a lot of pushback on pumping some of the launchpads and certain traders who are trenchers. From what I see on Twitter, there’s a segmentation: people who trade new pairs, and people who deploy new pairs and also bundle them.
Yeah.
I don’t really understand how people are differentiating what’s okay and what’s not okay. Is it okay to create a coin, but you’re not supposed to buy a lot of it? Is it okay to trade new pairs, but you’re not supposed to dev them? I don’t really understand the ecosystem or the morality of the different participants. It seems very unclear to me what people think about it.
Yeah, honestly, I feel like trenchers deploying coins is kind of looked down upon. I don’t do it. I’ve never deployed a coin.
Yeah.
But a lot of the time, for example, Senzu, Ethan Prosper, and Cupsey—I don’t think he deploys. The reason these trenchers deploy coins most of the time is because they want to buy the correct coin.
Yeah.
A lot of the time, they vamp or just deploy something because that’s the coin they want to buy.
Yeah.
Obviously, they’re gonna have supply and sell it, but I don’t think it’s really that bad to deploy. When you get to the deep roots of the Proxima bundles and all that stuff, a lot of people really hate that too.
Yeah.
The farms and stuff.
I watch DV’s stream, and every time there’s a hot narrative, there are 10 deploys for the coin.
Yeah.
When I’m watching them trade, they’re getting rugged on the same coin because they’re buying multiple coins that are actually the same coin. Then one of them wins out, and they go heavier into that one.
Yeah.
That kind of makes sense why you’d want to be deving them, then.
Do you have a buy size for when a new narrative comes out and there are 10 deploys or five deploys of the coin? Do you buy each one with a set amount?
Yeah, I have—
Bro, I have buttons for each fucking size.
Yeah. When it gets like that, you just have to hope the narrative is good enough. A lot of the time, you’ll gamble on five and the narrative ends up being shit, and you lose on all five. You just have to hope the narrative is actually good enough to size into one of them, if that makes sense.
That does make sense.
No, that makes total sense.
What’s Proxima?
I think a lot of people just assume it’s pure gambling. But I’m pretty sure these guys know how much they’re willing to punt on a coin, and they’re accepting that it could all go to zero.
Yeah, exactly.
Hey.
You said, “What’s Proxima?”
The hack is still going.
Yeah. Huh?
The hack is still going. They’re draining more.
The hack is still going? The Binance hack is still going, apparently.
They’re saying it’s—
I’ve seen news that KuCoin might’ve been hacked as well.
They’re draining. It says—let’s see.
Claude’s going nuts today.
Grok, Grok. Bro, they had to justify that $1.5 trillion valuation. They said, “No, we’re gonna use this to hack everything.”
Grokbot’s up today. Crazy.
Damn, Grokbot just hit Alex Moss on Twitter and said, “DM.” Definitely AI, definitely AI.
Yeah, this Binance hack is crazy.
It is insane.
Oh, $2.7 billion. I’m trying to see what more info there is on it.
They’re still draining.
They’re still draining it.
It’s kind of nuts this happens the same day that Hyperliquid gets the stamp from—
It’s so poetic.
TradFi.
Crazy. Crazy.
So poetic, bro. Hype to $100-plus. We need that for the industry.
So, bro, do you have any other coins you’re bullish on besides maybe Solana or Bitcoin itself? You’re trenching, you have SOL, whatever. Is there anything you’re interested in? Do you have bags, or are you primarily in Tether or Solana and just trying to make money?
Yeah, I just try to make money now. Last month, I was definitely trying to buy majors and swing-trade perps, and then I got absolutely wrecked when everything took a huge dip. But now I’m just back to the roots of trying to make money trading regularly.
Stick to what you know, type shit.
Yeah.
Well, dude, I think it’d be a sick video, because I’ve never trenched a day in my life. I’ve got a FOMO account. I bought a few coins, and I’m down $150K, just because my hold time is 50 days. Everyone’s like, “Well, that’s your problem. You can’t hold anything for 50 days.”
Yeah.
But I’d love to sit with a trencher and be like, “Yeah, I’m gonna show you how to trade perps and make money doing it.”
Yeah.
But in return, you have to show me how to actually make a dollar.
That would actually be a good video.
That’s interesting.
You guys should do that with each other and teach each other for a week. You show up every day and stream the process of teaching each other. You spend an hour teaching him, and he spends an hour teaching you. After the week, you go your separate ways, fund a fresh new portfolio with like 100 bands, and just see who—
See who makes more money?
Yeah, see who can make more money doing the other thing.
Well, what’s interesting is that, at least in my view, the average person—I’m part of the CT class—thinks trenching is all scams. They think the only way people make money trenching is if they’re the deployer, or if they have insider knowledge. I know that’s clearly not the case; this is a skill-based endeavor.
It’d be cool to be like, “Okay, on a wallet nobody knows I have, I didn’t know how to do this before. If I can make money, it stands to reason that with the right tools, ability, and work, you could do this too.”
Yeah.
I just think most people don’t think that. The average person sees guys like you and thinks, “Oh, these guys are all in cahoots.” Anytime—
Yeah.
—any trencher hits a bag, they’re like, “Oh, shit, they got the phone call.”
Yeah.
Yeah, exactly.
They got the insider call that this is the coin. It just happened with Rasmer[?] and the Kimchi coin.
Right.
I think it’s just as plausible that Kimchi was doing his thing, and everyone knew there was probably gonna be a Kimchi coin. Like, that would be—
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
Someone’s gonna launch a coin. I assume most of you probably bought a few that went to zero before the one ran.
Oh, yeah.
—I was in the wrong one too.
Yeah, I bought the wrong one twice. Everyone knew there was gonna be a runner; it was kinda hard to pick the right one.
Yeah.
Mayne and I have an undoxxed FOMO, and it cracked the top 300 all time at one point.
Really?
I was up like $250K. Now I’m getting smoked. I think I’m up maybe $100K all time, or so. But—
Cool.
Yeah, the idea is to run it up to $1 million realized—seven-figure realized.
That would be sick.
And then just dox it. Yeah, it’s—
I put a ton of money right into fucking Orbio before this pullback because I read their stuff. I was like, “Oh, this team is so cracked. I’m so bullish on this shit.” I think I poured a lot of money into it when it was around $90 million. It’s at around $30 million now, so that definitely hurt the port. I sold some other random shit to get into it.
But, yeah, I think that would be super interesting. I’ve seen enough people continue to win—guys like you—that it’s like, okay, obviously this is skill-based. I find it so interesting because it’s a completely different skill from what I think Z and I are used to doing, which is—
Yeah.
—swing trading, trading perps.
Yeah.
Completely different, bro. I’m good at finding the shit that’s in the $5 million to $10 million range and trying to pick which ones I think are gonna go higher than that. But the trenching shit is a completely different game.
Yeah, I think everyone could do it, though. Honestly, I do. You guys—everyone knows what a good coin is.
Mm.
It’s just sitting there and waiting for a good coin.
Yeah, that’s true.
And just trying to be as early as possible while not trying to lose—
Mate, we should run it, bro—
—as much money as possible.
We should run it together and just—
Let’s do it.
—and post the video after. Just see how much money we lose.
TR did it. TR hit a fat SI trade on an undoxxed wallet and then made a whole video about it.
Yeah.
How much did he realize, insentos? Like 300 bands? Something like that?
No, I think he made—
Some more, I think, yeah.
—a million.
Did he?
No, what the fuck?
But that trade was a little bit longer-term, right?
Yeah.
Because I remember Trump had started tweeting, like, “We’re calling it this now.” Even I was like—
Yeah.
—I could see this being a runner. He’s constantly pushing, like, “This is what it’s called now.” But, yeah, picking the right one, having the conviction, putting the money behind it—I don’t know what the mental block—
By the way, the fact that it only topped at $55 million, I think, was the ultimate signal—the freest signal—to get your fucking money off-chain.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah.
To be honest, that should have been it. I was saying it too. I just fucking—
Do you think we return to a world where coins like PEPE— I saw a very interesting thread saying PEPE gave people unrealistic expectations of what meme coins are actually capable of. We’re not gonna see these coins go to double-digit billions anymore; it’s just not a thing. Do you think we get back to a world where that happens, or is the money too dispersed? Is it moving too quickly for anything to be that concentrated of a bet and go to $10 billion-plus?
My mind would be fucking blown if a—
Yeah, I don’t—
—a meme coin went to $10 billion.
Yeah, a lot of people—we’re in a very hyper-rotating market. Everyone’s just thinking about the next thing. I think it would take a lot for a coin to go to $1 billion, go to $2 billion.
It would have to escape the confines and the rules that people—
Well, what was the biggest one last cycle? Was it WIF?
PEPE was bigger. PEPE went to $12 billion, WIF went to $5 billion.
But PEPE went—
BONK went to $5 billion.
—but PEPE was two cycles old. PEPE’s been around.
It was a new one, though. It was a new PEPE.
There was a new PEPE that went to $12 billion?
Yeah. PEPE went from zero to $12 billion for sure. For sure. Yeah, 2023.
You know that.
Yeah, I mean, it first topped around $2 billion.
But, bro, Shiba Inu went to $45 billion.
I know. Yeah, it was nuts.
So—
Shiba went to $40 billion. Doge went to—
So insane.
—$75 billion or something.
Like, crazy. Do we ever get a coin back there? How does it happen? I just don’t know if it’s possible.
I think it’s possible. I think you’d have to go so viral outside of our circle—
Yeah.
—of people. WIF, I think, had 200K holders—
If it’s gonna happen, it’s gonna happen on TikTok and shit.
—or something around there.
Yeah.
It would have to be somebody who’s so viral outside of CT that everybody knows who they are, and there are millions and millions of holders. I think there would have to be something attached to it. This can’t just be a pure meme. That’s my thought. Or just delusional, optimistic, cult-like communities. Like, that—
Yeah.
—that, that... Yeah.
We just need more players in the casino, in the video game, you know? How do you get...
How do you get new people to trade crypto? I feel like we could probably reach a point where a lot of people stop sports betting and playing blackjack, and actually start trying to use educated guesses to trade.
Right.
Use educated guesses to trade.
Yeah. I think the mobile app, plus perps, plus on-chain going—
Getting a lot more popular this cycle is how you see stuff like that happen. I do think the one good thing we’re going to see is, if Hyperliquid is successful in integrating through a lot of the U.S. and you see equity perps on-chain, that could get hundreds of billions or trillions of assets moved on-chain.
Then obviously a lot of that capital, especially if it lives in a place where people are trading those assets, is also going to be trading other things on-chain. I think that’s how something like that happens: when you have such a larger customer base.
100%.
Insane.
Well, these charts look disgusting, bro. I am not fucking with the charts, bro.
Yeah, like—
It’s not.
I’m holding till it’s over.
Okay.
Short on Bitcoin still. To me, 75K just—
Oh my God, bro.
Gets run. But again, dude, look at the weekly chart. Tell me this doesn’t look exactly the same as the last bottom, which would include a run of 75K. It is bar for bar the same trade.
You’re talking about early 2023, right?
Yeah, like—
Yeah.
Look at the move in March 2023, where we took out that weekly low. We did the exact same thing, man. We broke out of the bottom, put in a weekly structure break, and had a little bit of a move up. It was lackluster: a 25% pullback, and then it ripped again.
I don’t know. If this plays out the exact same and I somehow don’t full-port long the higher low, I’m going to blow my shit off.
I think I’m going full-port Zcash, bro. I’ve been thinking about what the fuck I buy if this shit really does nuke like this, because right now I’m in the camp that ETH goes to, like, 1,800 and Bitcoin goes to, like—
Yeah, 65.
High 60s. Yeah.
Yeah.
Mid- to high 60s. I’m in that camp right now. And if that happens, what happens to alts? Then what alts do I want to buy?
78, yeah.
I think I want to buy Zcash at, like, 750, bro.
At 900? 1,050?
750.
750?
750.
Yeah, I could see that. I think anywhere between 750 and 900 is probably pretty good value.
Bro, if I get Zcash at 750, I think you just—
And it’s just a retest of the prior all-time high.
Blind, I think you just blind-slam it, bro. I was super bullish, and I thought it was going to hold 1,400. Then it broke down. That was my first signal to be like, “Okay, the strongest coin is not as strong anymore.”
Why do you think XMR doesn’t get any of the beta love you’d expect?
Bro, they don’t have the cabal, bro.
They don’t have Israel?
They don’t have the cabal. They don’t have Israel. They don’t have the rich people, like—
They don’t have Frank DeGods.
Bro, the rich Bitcoiners—They don’t have Frank DeGods. The rich Bitcoiners have decided that Zcash is the private version of Bitcoin. I’m not arguing with them, to be honest. But the Monero chart looks good.
Should we start a crazy rumor that we’ve never seen Frank DeGods and Netanyahu in the same room?
Oh my God, imagine.
I mean, we haven’t.
They’d sell a ton.
I haven’t, that’s true.
I mean, Bitcoin’s at 78K. This is about the time when I go on Twitter and tell Frank to kill himself. I’m gonna go ahead and do that.
Is he still short?
Frank’s short.
Frank, is he still short?
I don’t know what the trade is, but I definitely know I’m gonna go tell Frank DeGods to kill himself on Twitter.
Bro, Frank and I were at a dinner the other day. We were both like, “Bro, we’re bearish as fuck right now.” We’re both very short.
Yeah, he was on my stream on Thursday, and he’s like, “Dude, please tell me we’re nuking. I’m short as shit.”
Yeah. I wonder if he’s still short. He gets in and out of positions pretty frequently, though.
He shorted HYPE this morning.
Yeah, that was sick. I was just like, “Yeah, you’re just trying to big-dick the table.” That was sick. I didn’t see that. I wonder if he’s in that. I haven’t checked. I don’t check his position.
He’s got a Hyperliquid wallet.
Yeah, on FOMO he’s 20x short on Bitcoin.
On what? Is he still short SOXL? I think SOXL is a good one.
He’s only short Bitcoin and ETH, at least on this.
On FOMO?
Yeah.
Man, SOXL looks like shit.
It looks like shit, bro. That’s what I’m telling you. Shit does not look good.
Dude, I told my brother when Leopold blew up, “This is the most poetic top from a fundamental perspective, this guy just getting blown out.” But my brother is fully in the camp, as I think a lot of retail are, that there’s just infinite demand for these AI companies, these hyperscalers, and neoclouds. And it’s like, yeah, maybe. Or maybe the businesses aren’t that good.
Bro, the worst thing for these retail investors right now is how much money the memory stocks are making. They’re never going to sell. They’re literally not going to sell, because they’re gonna be like, “It’s trading at 7x P/E. Why would I sell it?” Bro, the stock is up, like, fucking 20x.
A trillion. Yeah.
Bro, it went from 100 billion to 1 trillion in a year.
Yeah.
Are people gonna be taking profits? It’s crazy because it looks and feels exactly like altcoins used to feel. Altcoins would go up 10x, then they’d go up another 10x, and it’s like, what the fuck is happening? Nobody wants to sell, and then shit goes down 70%, 80%.
Parabolas perform the exact same way with every single asset, no matter what the asset is. If it’s crypto, stocks, or commodities, it’s all the same people.
Yeah. They go both ways, too.
It’s all the same people. It’s all the exact same thing. I don’t think they’ve experienced that aggressive volatility sell-off yet, because these things have not gone down. Even the memory stocks right now are down, like, 30% from all-time highs, but they’re still up, like, 3x on the year.
Yeah. What do you think about gold? I think gold goes sub-$4K, takes a bit of a dumpster dive, and then bottoms. I’d love to buy gold around 3,800, 3,700.
Yeah. I’m in the same camp. I was looking at gold, and it went crazy parabolic. Every asset feels like it’s gone parabolic, and then they blow off the top and now it’s just—
Didn’t they just figure out how to—
Falling back—
Turn fucking lead into gold?
Yeah, but it remains radioactive for, like, a decade. It’s nowhere near where lab diamonds are relative to the diamond market yet.
Yeah.
But you can imagine.
Yeah.
It’s the same argument: they learn how to land one of Elon’s rockets on one of these asteroids—
Yeah.
—that’s got more gold than—
Made of gold. Yeah.
—we even know. I do think what you were saying, Izzy, is the trickiest part for me: so much stuff looks like it can die, yet I’m hoping Bitcoin is at the end of a bear or the beginning of a bull. Do you just treat this trade in a vacuum? Is Bitcoin just going to bottom before everything else?
There’s an argument to be made that if the memory trade continues to implode, and the AI trade and the equity buckets re-rate down significantly, Bitcoin could make a new low. It’s not impossible.
I know, bro.
I don’t want to believe that’s the case, but it could still go to, like, 50. That isn’t insane. If equities pull back 20%—
Yeah.
—that’s not out of control for Bitcoin to pull back 35%.
Yeah. It’s pretty fucked up. I was thinking through this the other day. I’m also not in that camp yet, but I was thinking it would make sense if this bounce was a countertrend bounce, and we’re still in a macro downtrend. Crypto just topped first, and now equities are topping and pulling back deeper. Then it would make sense for crypto to continue its downtrend.
And, like—
And crypto could bottom first—
Which is, like—
It’s definitely gonna bottom first, for sure.
Yeah, which isn’t crazy. If you look at prior bottoms, Bitcoin itself will often bottom before the crypto stocks do.
Yeah.
Then you’ll see the Coinbases and things like that bottom kind of after the fact. How does MicroStrategy look? Actually, pretty much exactly the same. Same trade as Bitcoin.
Bro, you know the one stock that looks really good?
Bro, Coinbase.
Eli Lilly.
Yeah, bro. What are your thoughts on all the—
Oh, Eli Lilly looks great.
—peptide stuff? Every person I know is on peptides.
Didn’t Tool King just say it’s a buy?
Oh, yeah. Tool King says Eli Lilly is his largest position in his portfolio, by a lot. I think it’s one of the stocks that’s kind of uncorrelated to all the AI overinvestment going on. The peptide stuff is gonna continue to get a lot more popular. But really, it’s the fat-loss drugs that are working really, really well. That’s something that’s gonna print so much money for them, because everybody wants to be fit, and if you can take a pill or whatever it is to get there, that’s obviously gonna print them a fuck ton of money over the next few years.
Dude, and they’re finding the side effects are actually really good for your kidneys, and good for all these other things as well that we didn’t even know about. Being overweight is the number one comorbidity for every type of death, basically.
Yeah.
So just being skinnier naturally is better for you. What do you think about Nike, dude? I’m long Nike.
Really? Why?
Dude, everyone’s shitting on Nike.
Is it gonna turn around?
I think Nike’s due for some sort of mean reversion here.
Okay. God, it’s down so much.
That’s what I’m saying, bro. They beat earnings every single time. Everyone still fucks with Nike.
Wow. Yeah, it’s down like 80%. This makes no sense.
I know. I went long at 35, and my stop-loss is 32. I think it could go to 50 or 60 at least. It’s like a double.
Yeah, this looks good. If it gets back above 39, 40, I could see it fill this gap to 50. Yeah, I see what you’re talking about. I see this trade.
Bro, and again, it’s completely out of the AI realm. This thing’s been in a bear market for 5 years.
Yeah. That’s what we need to find, bro. We need to find stuff that’s not correlated to AI right now, because I do think those things could do well.
Yeah. Commodities, retail, just fucking anything.
Yeah.
Do you dabble in any stock trading, insentos?
If I see something trending on CT, I’ll probably take a trade. The last stock I traded was MU, and the stock before that was Marvell. If it’s something CT traders are talking about, I’ll probably touch it. Besides that, not really.
How do you think about retirement? You’re in your early 20s—I don’t know if your age is doxxed. Do you have a dollar figure you’re trying to make, to set yourself up so you don’t have to trench and do as much work? Or do you not think about it at all? Are you just like, “I love this. I wanna do this forever, all day”?
I think I’ve positioned myself so I’m kind of set, in a way.
Yeah.
Nice.
Obviously, anything can happen. Now I’m just trading to reach the next level, you know? I don’t really think about retirement, though. I don’t have a 401(k) or anything like that.
You should.
I guess—
Well, I guess you’re in Puerto Rico, so it doesn’t even matter, bro. Bro’s paying fucking 4%—no capital gains—living the dream.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, you got your shit. You’re chilling. You’re chilling. I feel you. Trading is one of those things where you can do it forever; you just gotta continue to get better at it. Obviously, we’re talking about options. I wanna get better at different strategies and shit, so just always get better.
But don’t you find that how you’ve traded has changed as you’ve gotten older, cycle over cycle? I don’t take any low-time-frame trades anymore. I just can’t do it. I used to scalp, and now I’m taking all my trades based on the daily chart.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I definitely move a lot slower. The only time I’m really on low time frames is when I think either a big liquidation period is about to happen or we’re at a major, major, major swing low. Then I’ll lock in. But outside of that, I’m just—
I think of it like being a basketball player, bro. Early in your career, you’re running, diving for the ball, slashing to the hoop. As you get older, it’s like, “Okay, it’s time to develop a post-up game. I don’t got the cardio anymore.” You move slow, but you can still dominate; it’s just a different way. I find it so interesting, because I remember being in my early 20s, and you couldn’t get me off the screen. When I was at my job, I was on the charts. The moment I got home, I was on the charts. In my mind, it was like, the more time on the charts, the more money I’m gonna make. Obviously, that’s not always the case, but—
Yeah. I feel like if the trenching shit had been popular in 2020, 2021, I would’ve been on that, bro.
Yeah.
I would’ve been all on that. In 2020, 2021, we were bridging back and forth between chains, but there wasn’t a main launchpad, so there weren’t a lot of coins for you to be trenching on. But if you found the meme early on whatever chain you bridged to, you basically won the game.
Yeah.
What did I buy in 2021? I bought SAMO on Sol.
Was 2021 BNB season?
BNB went crazy that year.
Yeah, BNB went nuts, dude.
A lot of the DeFi games and stuff were cool. All the yield farming, super-inflationary tokens. Yeah, that shit was cool.
NFTs were a movie.
NFTs were a movie in 2020, 2021.
Do you think they come back? Any faith in NFTs?
Um, I think—
I do, I do.
I think long term, digital property in the form of buildings, real estate, skins—yeah. I think CryptoPunks are fucking digital Picassos, personally.
I have a Punk just because, to me, it’s history. It’s—
Yeah, how would you not have one, though?
Yeah. I feel like I need to have some exposure, and they’ve held up every single cycle. I always try to think about the use case of NFTs, but as we go into this more digital world where—
Yes.
—I don’t know, dude. Even the way and speed that AI, VR, and AR are progressing, I could totally see a Ready Player One in our lifetime.
Yes. A hundred percent. It’s inevitable, a hundred percent.
Yeah. Then you’re gonna have, like, okay, well, how do you—
And then it’s the same—
—digital real estate.
It’s the same exact use case as a Picasso or a fucking Patek, except it’s infinitely, exponentially more exposed. Because people will be able to go into your—
Well, and it’s like the skins—
Yes.
It’s like the CS:GO skins. I still think there’s a world where people—
Yeah.
—are so obsessed with skins for Counter-Strike. Eventually, we’re all gonna have an online avatar. You’re gonna want your guy to be dope.
Correct.
And how do you—
How many daily active users do these social media apps have? Like Instagram—how many people log into Instagram and use it every day?
It’s gotta be like—
Billions, bro.
Tens of millions.
Yeah. I feel like—
It’s got to be more than tens of millions. It has to be, right?
2 billion a day.
Okay, so 2 billion a day.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, an Oasis-style server, a GTA-esque world that 2 billion people log into and visit every day—what is a CryptoPunk worth in that world, right? How are people going to react when an alien CryptoPunk walks past them and they’re like, “What the fuck?” This guy was around in 2017 or spent tens of millions of dollars to wear that.
Yeah.
Yeah. I feel like with NFTs, it’s all about integration. On Instagram right now, there’s no way to really attach an NFT to an account, so everyone’s spending $100,000 on an OG name, or $50,000 on an OG name. That’s kind of how you can peacock or status-max with money. But if NFTs were more integrated into social media, then it would be just as easy as that, and they’d make a comeback.
As long as people are still buying supercars, watches, and fine art, yeah. To what you said earlier about crypto, I think it’s really important to highlight the relative strength CryptoPunks specifically have shown through NFT Armageddon. Every fucking NFT project is down 99.9%. The word “NFT” is so fucking cringe and smoked and cooked. The fact that these things are still trading—
The floor was like $60,000. That’s still expensive.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, it is.
Speaking of GTA, what do you think about Take-Two? Have you looked at it? Take-Two’s the company whose stock—
Yeah, we love Take-Two.
The chart’s bearish. It’s pulling back, and I feel like this has to be the biggest video game ever. It’s going to be the highest-selling video game of all time. Is this not a free trade? It’s just a matter of where and when. When GTA launched in December 2013, this thing was, I don’t even know, at $20. It’s at $200 now. Do we not just long this thing blindly and assume—
Yeah, probably.
—five years? The game’s coming out, and then they come out with online and milk that shit forever.
Yep.
Yeah. We were talking about it earlier in the year, and it bounced pretty hard, went near an all-time high, and now it’s pulling back to its swing low. I think it’s a good spot. I think—
I think so too. Right where it is now, it’s kind of—
Yeah.
—right at that swing low. Maybe it dips below $185, but this just seems like a no-brainer. I’m 36, and I’m taking a day off to play Grand Theft Auto.
Absolutely.
On launch day.
Yeah, no, GTA is cracked, bro. What do you think about the Anthropic shit, man?
Over the last few months, they’ve been cash-flow positive. I think a lot of people are hyper-fixated on the debt, understandably. If you look at the business, you’re like, “Okay, it seems like they’re spending two or three bucks to make a dollar. How is that a good business?” But if you look at a shorter window, they’ve been cash-flow positive for the last few months. I do think it’s a good business, so I’m relatively bullish. Obviously, the IPO is maybe some sort of local top.
Mm-hmm.
We get a pullback in equities, and we probably trade up and then down, similar to how we did on SpaceX’s IPO. But long term, it’s hard not to be bullish on Anthropic. The only caveat I have is that I talked to a buddy of mine who’s pretty dialed in, and he says we’re approaching a point where you’ll be able to run a model that’s 95% as good as whatever the frontier model is, right from your phone.
From your phone?
Yeah, he’s like, “That is coming.” You’re going to be able to have your own local model that’s 90% to 95% as good as whatever the frontier model is, and run the entire thing from your cell phone.
Have any of you guys heard of or used Instinct?
Yeah.
No.
I’ve heard of it.
Really?
I don’t use it.
Wow.
I have heard of it. It’s like the—
Yeah, Frank’s really bullish on it. It’s just a—
It’s like an AI assistant, right?
Yeah, it’s an AI assistant in text, and I’ve heard really good things about it. You can text it something like, “I want you to get red balloons and flowers and leave them at this hotel room door, because my girlfriend’s staying there, with a note that says this,” and it’ll just do it from a text message.
Oh, for real?
Yeah, some wild shit like that.
Yeah, I might need that shit, bro.
Book me flights to this and that, and book dinners for every night that I’m in Dubai, and it’ll just do it.
Yeah, it’s Instinct.
What is it called?
Instinct.
Instinct.
It’s invite-only, and I’ve just heard insane things about it.
Instinct? Let’s get an invite, whoever’s out there watching.
I got it.
You got me?
Yeah.
Yeah?
Yeah.
Kat has it?
Kat got it, bro. Kat has it.
What does Kat not have, bro?
Tav, my manager, speaks very highly of it.
Kat has no show. That’s what Kat does now.
That’s what he does all day long. He’s my number one operator, booking shit and handling all that kind of stuff. This Instinct shit is cracked. Frank likes it as well. On that note, though, I have to leave. I’m going to leave you guys to it. I’ll stay live on all my platforms, but I’ve got to go. I have a hard cut at 3:30.
See you, my G.
It was a little bit… We got rear-ended at the beginning of this episode because the market was going crazy. But we’ll see you guys next Thursday. Chat, appreciate you guys. Mayne, insentos, Z—
Peace.
—I’ll leave you to it.
Love, guys. Thanks.
Z—
Z, you know Drew Tang from Twitter? He’s been DM’ing me because I reached out after I posted, “The whole timeline’s dooming, end-of-the-world stuff.” He’s a lot more into that world of predictive stuff, with a bit of occult conspiracy theory vibes. He literally just texted me, “Bro, I told you. Exchange is first, banks next.” I’m like, “Bro, come on, man. I’m trying to just enjoy my life right now. Don’t tell me my money in the bank’s going to be toast too.”
Fuck, bro. How do you even guard against that? If banks get hacked, what the fuck do you do? Buy bricks? Hold cash?
He’s like, “Have cash, have gold and silver,” physically. He’s like, “Have, you know, $10,000 in cash and maybe $10,000 or $20,000 in gold. If the world ends, that’s going to put you in the top 1%.” I find it interesting because, as you make more money, I think you start to think not just about legacy, but about how you’re going to protect your wealth—not just for yourself, but for your kids and your kids’ kids—and how you can insulate your family and next of kin from the worst things possible on the planet.
Mm.
As people get richer, it seems like they go deeper into that: longevity, bunkers for all the billionaires. How much can we really do if the banks go down? I don’t know about America, either. In Canada, there’s a government monopoly on banks. There are only a few banks, and they’re the most profitable businesses in the entire country. They make up most of our stock market. If you want to make a good investment in Canada, you invest in Canadian banks. They pay out dividends, they print, and they have a kind of government monopoly. In America, there’s a lot more freedom, and I do think some of these banks can go under when shit hits the fan. I don’t know how you protect yourself from that other than having physical assets and crypto.
I don't know, man. Damn. Maybe I’ll hit up Drew Tang and get the fucking regimen from him, bro.
If you wanna feel shitty, yeah, hit him up. He’ll tell you that we’re all gonna die, but he’ll tell you what to do.
Drew Tang. Drew Tang, what it do? Maybe we need to have him on and give him the fucking rundown.
He would be a good guest, bro.
He would be.
He would be a good guest because he’s deep into that stuff. He’s like, “Listen, maybe nothing happens, but if stuff does happen, you wanna be ready.”
I don’t know if you remember when Portugal had that power outage a couple of years back. I think in some places the power was out for as long as 72 hours. I had some friends who lived there at the time, and they’re like, “Night one, it was like a party. Everyone’s lighting candles, they’re drinking wine, they’re having power-out parties.” He’s like, “By day two, your fridge is off, your water’s not running, you have no heat, you have no AC.” He’s like, “By day two, shit was already starting to get looted,” because people are like, “Oh, fuck, there’s no power. I don’t have a generator. I don’t have any of this stuff.” By day three, it’s pandemonium.
So you wonder, maybe thinking the power grid goes down is crazy. But if we lost power in a major city for two full days, how does shit not hit the fan?
Bro, in New York? If we lost power in New York—
Imagine just in New York for 48 hours, with zero power—
No—
Is it not an instant riot?
It’s craziness everywhere, for sure. Without a doubt. Certainly. Maybe I need to hit up Drew Tang. But come on—
Bro, he’s gonna tell you to get out of New York. He’s gonna tell you to go into the country, to a farm with a solar panel and a well.
Yeah, man. We’ll go to the fucking bunker with some water and shit, bro. I remember last time we were on, I think one of the conversations we had was about getting the cul-de-sac and shit. Weren’t we saying that?
Yeah, bro.
One of the last times we were on here.
Yeah, bro. We need the compound.
Yeah. The crypto compound with everybody and all the right supplies and shit. No, that’s true, though. Crypto specifically is very much about taking care of yourself and owning your own money. Don’t rely on anybody else. That kind of extends into all the physical protection and safety stuff too. I think it’s an extension of that line of thinking, which is why you see a lot of Bitcoiners who are heavy into that kind of stuff too, with the libertarian ideals and everything. But go ahead.
Yeah. I hope this is just a nothing burger, like it’s midterm FUD, and we’re gonna have new shit to worry about and complain about. But the timing of some of this stuff happening is suspect.
Mm-hmm.
I think it’s just weird. I mean, I was saying this to somebody the other day: with the AI stuff, we’re undoubtedly in the period of the most uncertainty about what’s gonna happen.
Yeah.
Whether you think something bad or something good or something amazing or something terrible, whatever the range or spectrum of your thoughts are, you definitely have no fucking idea what’s gonna happen next. Over the next 12 to 18 months, you have no idea which direction it’s gonna go, what shit’s gonna break, or what breakthroughs we’re gonna see.
That’s kind of partially the reason I’m light on equity. I think people are just looking for reasons to de-risk because they just don’t know. You just have no idea. It’s definitely interesting. Markets do not like uncertainty.
Well, it’s gonna cure cancer.
Yeah.
But it also might kill us, you know? When I was talking to this guy I mentioned, he’s like, “Oh, I’m actually more of an AI optimist.” He’s like, “Do you know any person that doesn’t have problems?” I’m like, “Of course not.” He’s like, “So AI’s always gonna have something to solve.” I was like, “Oh, so you don’t think it’s gonna kill us?” And he’s like, “No, no, no. There’s still a nonzero percent chance it kills all of us, but I’m more optimistic.” I’m like, “Okay. Sick.” But again, I don’t know what to do, bro. I genuinely don’t know what to do.
I don’t either, bro. That’s what I’m saying.
We listen to Drew Tang, and then after that it’s like, what do we do?
I have enough money to buy a property in the woods and have a well on it, solar panels, whatever. But I don’t know, dude. It’s kind of like the zombie apocalypse argument, where it’s like, okay, if zombies are gonna take over the world and it’s an extinction event, we’re all gonna die eventually. You just might be able to survive longer than others.
Do you wanna be the motherfucker who gets the guns, loads up, and tries to survive on the run for as long as possible, Walking Dead style? Or do you just wanna say, “Okay, fuck it. I guess I’m a zombie now”?
Yeah. Yeah. I don’t fucking know, bro. That is fucking funny. Bro, should we—
Because you drive yourself crazy. You’ll be like, “Well, I can’t live in a major city. I can’t enjoy all of these things. I’m gonna get all my money out of the bank. I’m gonna keep it in my house.” I don’t know, bro.
Yeah.
Who wants to live that life?
Yeah, nobody, to be honest. Bro, should we look at the charts? Should we look at some charts?
Let’s do it.
Let’s see. Oh, no, I think I messed that up.
That doesn’t look good. First chart, not good.
It doesn’t, right? Bro—
One second.
How does this not go to 26?
That’s what I’m saying, bro. That’s what I’m saying.
Look on the weekly, and look at every time we’ve had a weekly structure break on the S&P 500 and on the Nasdaq. Every single time we get a weekly structure break, it’s a minimum of 10% to 20%. It’s predictable. This S&P top looks like the top before April’s dump. It’s identical—
This one, right?
Dude, the one before too. It’s just like—
Yeah, I know. I know.
And then look at that big-ass swing low.
I know, bro.
Once we broke through that, it’s like, get the fuck out. That’s exactly where we are right now on NQ. It’s the same setup, and that’s exactly where we are on the S&P as well.
Yeah, I know, bro. People are like, “Bro, how’d you flip so fast?” I’m like, “Bro, did you see what it looked like two weeks ago? Look, bro, two weeks ago this shit was a fucking perfect chart.”
I know, but these all-time-high breakouts—
It was a perfect chart two weeks ago.
The equities charts are the easiest to trade at all-time highs, because if it holds the breakout, it’s gonna giga-rip—
Yeah.
And if it’s a deviation, it’s gonna nuke.
Yeah, about to—
Any time it breaks out to an all-time high, you just long it. If it gets back below, it’s an instant close and flip short.
Cut everything. Yeah, and that’s the most difficult thing for people to do: go from bullish to bearish that quickly. I think that’s why the sell-offs are so aggressive. I know this because this is how crypto trades now too. Bitcoin didn’t use to trade like this.
No.
In 2017, that shit used to just fucking go.
Yeah.
It would pull back like 30%, bottom, re-bottom, all-time highs. Boom. Go.
And we would watch all-time-high breakouts and long them—
Bro—
Because it’s like, “Oh my God—”
Yeah, all the time.
“It’s an all-time high.”
All-time-high breakouts were a guaranteed smash, bro.
Yeah.
I remember in 2021, I was like, “Oh, okay. I’m getting cooked on this. How am I getting cooked on this? This used to be the fucking trade.” I remember I got hit so hard in April of 2021.
Yeah.
In 2017, bro, every new all-time high was just like, slam, slam, slam, slam. It was every single time. But when it started doing the consolidate-and-fake-breakout thing—
Dude, now an all-time high is almost just a guaranteed fade.
It’s a fade.
Like it’s just—
It’s a fade.
A deviation setup. And to your point, that’s exactly how equities trade, too.
Mm-hmm.
And right now, we’ve deviated, and we’re retesting the level that broke us up. If we lose these key levels on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, I don’t see how we don’t get at least another 10% of downside. Generally, with 10%-plus of downside in equities, you don’t really want to be long crypto.
Yeah. Yeah, bro, I’m—
Yeah, that’s only 12%. That’s not a crazy, world-ending nuke.
It’s not a recession. It’s just a pullback. This is very normal.
Yes.
It’s very normal.
Yeah, and it could end up being a higher low, retesting the old highs at 26, 25, 26, and then going up again. But I don’t see how Bitcoin doesn’t pull back double what equities pull back. That’s kind of standard fare.
Yeah, that’s what I’m looking at too, bro. I think all of these are about to roll. That’s why I said these next 2 weeks are going to be tricky. They’re going to be tricky.
And it’s all spot selling on Bitcoin, too. If you’ve been tracking the spot price, every time we pull back, it’s spot selling. We’re trading $150 lower on spot right now.
Really? On Coinbase compared to perps?
Yeah. Coinbase is at $7,950, and perps are at $79,200.
Yeah, that’s not good. For the chat, what he’s saying is Coinbase is BTC/USD, and that’s purely spot trading, meaning you’re actually buying and selling your positions with cash. What I’m looking at is BTC/USDT, which is the most popular Binance perp. A lot of it is leveraged futures positions, so you can borrow capital to go short or long. When people are long or short, it can move the price slightly above or below the spot price.
When spot is trading beneath futures, that means futures are more aggressively long than spot, which is not typically a good sign. There are more people selling spot aggressively than people trying to long it. It’s not a great sign.
If you want to know if buying or selling is real, generally you want to see it led by spot. Whenever we’re coming out of a bottom, people will generally say, “Spot is leading this move.” That’s a good sign. It means people are actually buying Bitcoin, so maybe the move is more trustworthy and durable.
But right now it looks like spot is selling, which isn’t great. Again, I see the setup: inverted head and shoulders.
Yeah, it’s gonna be a—
It’s gonna look retardedly easy in hindsight.
Yeah. Yeah, I think—
What do you have at 65 there? What’s that level say? Weekly demand?
Weekly demand. Yeah.
Yeah.
I had this weekly spot marked from before, when it broke down. I was like, “Yo, this is where we need to get above. If we get above it, it’s gonna pop.” Sure enough, when we got above it, that’s when it popped pretty hard. Now it’s basically this weekly demand. I have this cluster of weekly candles before we broke out marked as weekly demand.
But they love these fake range breakouts, bro. Boom, breakout—nope, back inside, back to range lows. Boom, above these highs, and now it’s back inside again. It’s fighting $80K. $80K’s been a tough spot. I think a lot of people are like, “Yeah, this is just chop.”
Mm-hmm.
I can see why people would say this is really choppy. It’s not below this level like ETH is. ETH is already below this.
Yeah.
ETH is down here.
Yeah.
Bitcoin is—
ETH’s broken down.
Yeah, ETH is down here, but Bitcoin is still in this tricky area. What would be really funny is if it just did this for a long-ass time and then just went.
Yeah.
That would be hilarious if it just doesn’t break down. I’m expecting it to go fill this area here.
It just looks like that level’s begging to get tagged.
Yeah.
Then it’s just a matter of what the reaction is, because I don’t even think running $75K is a bad thing.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
I think it’s totally reasonable.
Yeah.
It’s just a question of the reaction. Do we hold below $75K? That’s a little worrisome. But if it’s similar to the last bottom, we should go below $75K and then get right back above.
The only way that happens is with a quick flush in equities. If equities start to roll a little bit and Bitcoin breaks down below $75K right away, then I think we might go dumpster diving. That’s when you could see a $60,000—
6-0.
—kind of zone. Sub-$70K. I think that would scare a lot of people, even though $60K is still higher.
Yeah, $60K is still higher, though. We were at like $58K.
Yeah, and that’s a 25% to 30% pullback. That’s a 30% pullback from the high.
Yeah, which isn’t crazy. It’s very normal.
Yeah.
This is a pretty crucial spot right now. We have Monday’s range here. This was the weekly open on Sunday. It traded above twice and spiked this level a few times. It was really tricky; you were getting chopped around pretty hard. It spiked these highs a few different times, and now it’s trading below.
Another setup where I’d be wrong on my bearish take is if it got back above this again after the breakdown. I think I’d probably flip long again.
Yeah, my level’s 81,150. It’s basically the mid-range of the weekly range, right where you are, a little higher.
Yeah.
Above there, it looks good.
Yeah. If this is the range and it’s going to expand to the downside, it really shouldn’t trade back above this.
It should close down here.
It should close down here. The daily close is in an hour and 20 minutes, and the 4-hour candle closes in an hour and 20 minutes, too. If it closes beneath this range, which is what I’m expecting, it should sell off. But if it somehow gets back above here really aggressively, I’d be like, “Okay, maybe I’m wrong for now.” Then we’ll see.
I just think equities are going to pull it down. I really do. It’s been strong because there hasn’t been that much selling in equities, but I think if we get that real pullback, that’s when it’s going to move. ETH is basically in the same spot.
ETH looks worse. SOL is kind of right at the low.
Yeah. ETH is in this $1,800 to $1,700 area. SOL is right here, so technically it’s not as bad as ETH. But what scares me about SOL is how long it’s been in this area.
I really wanted to see it stay above $100 to $120, because it spent so much time in this range. I don’t want to see it trade back in here again, because this was a massive consolidation. I really wanted it to get back above this support level on SOL.
We’ll see, but it’s really all pretty much the same chart on the majors. You have this range, a break above the range, and then, okay, fuck, it’s coming back down into the range. Probably test range lows. HYPE has been super strong. Zcash, yeah, I think they’re all going to get pulled down, bro.
I know. Anytime we get a major correction, the first thing I do is go across all the charts I like and ask, “Where’s weekly demand? Where’s the weekly retest?”
Yeah.
That’s kind of where you want to set your stink bids, or at least alerts. If we get some sort of correction and the market starts to nuke—
Mm-hmm.
—when it’s nuking, it’s very hard to act because you’re like, “Oh, where’s support? When’s it gonna drop?” But if you do this before the nuke and actually—
Yeah.
—say, “Okay, here are levels where I should be interested, and here’s why,” it’ll help you take action once the move occurs.
Yeah, that is true, especially if you just have cash you’re bidding with. You’re not trying to knife-catch on leverage; you’re just buying spot. That’s a good strategy, because people don’t realize how hard it is when you see red candle after red candle after red candle and you’re watching it in real time.
Dude, if you see Zcash at $900 in the next week or couple of weeks, it’s gonna look horrific.
Yeah, it is.
But if you look at it right now, you say, “Oh, man. That would be the giga blind bid.” The only way you’re going to have that confidence is by doing the analysis beforehand and literally writing a note. I do it on my chart. I set an alert, and it’s like, “Oh, this is where you wanted to buy a couple of weeks ago. Don’t freak out if we come here.”
Yeah, I do that too. I have alerts that say, “Bro, buy. Smash buy.” And when I see them, I’m like, “Ah, I don’t know. I don’t know.” Yeah, Zcash—I really like the $750 level. That would be a really deep pullback. It would require a lot of work on equities, but the reason I like $750 is that it was the high from way, way back. It’s a previous all-time high.
Yeah, it’s a great level.
And this high was last in 2025. If it comes here, I think that would be a smash for me.
What do you think about oil, dude?
The issue with it being so close to all-time highs is that it doesn’t seem like they have a solution.
No.
It doesn’t seem like they really know how to solve this problem. People are like, “Oh, we’re going to go to war with them.” I’ve seen some people say that even if we did, it wouldn’t quickly fix this issue.
Yeah, no. I’ve seen people say, “Oh, the war ends, and oil’s going to nuke back to $70.” I don’t know about that. But something I’ve seen a lot of people talk about, as a non-American and an outsider, is the perception in America and other countries that this was a sign of weakness for America, because they’re low-key not winning the war. I don’t know if there’s a way to win the war anyway. What do you do?
Yeah.
Iran, I think, has been more resilient than maybe people thought. Some people are saying, “Oh, this is actually a bad look for America, and they should just get out and say, ‘Okay, you know what? It’s done.’” I think this is one of the biggest blunders of Trump’s presidency, because he basically ran on no wars and then got into a war. I feel the same way, man. I don’t see how this chart just corrects itself and goes back down.
Yeah. I’ve seen people talk about the futures curve. It’s inflecting up now, too, which is rare. People are kind of expecting next year to be a tricky situation, which obviously isn’t good for inflation. That’s obviously not good for the Fed being able to cut rates, which isn’t good for stimulating the economy. The oil situation isn’t good. I wish I were a fucking geopolitical expert who could give an in-depth take on what’s going on. But it’s clear that if they could’ve ended it by now, they would’ve easily ended it by now, and they haven’t.
Well, exactly. There’s obviously a reason they’re still doing this. They want it to look like a win, so they have to stay in longer until they get what they want, quote-unquote.
Yeah.
Or they just can’t pull out that easily, which is scary. Now Elon has retweeted a tweet about the Binance hack. He said, “Every day is a zero-day.” If insentos were still on, I imagine there’d be a zero-day token. No? This is a relatively new tweet. It’s only 14 minutes old.
Dude.
Look what he just tweeted. Yeah, it’s still happening. They’re still hacking.
They’re still hacking?
Yeah, just look at this. For real.
What the fuck is this guy doing? He’s buying PEPE?
No, he’s draining it.
Selling PEPE?
No, he’s stealing PEPE from Binance.
Oh, he’s stealing PEPE from Binance.
It’s still going. How have they not stopped this yet?
How is it—what is this?
He’s swapping for PEPE. Yeah, you’re right. Wait—
I don’t know. Somebody said this hacker’s a more respectful seller than most traders. He’s selling just 0.1% of his PEPE stack per clip. That’s pretty funny.
Insane. He’s not even drilling.
Yeah, he’s respectfully being like, “Yo, bros, I got this. Sell—I’m warning you.”
Now, do we think this is—
I don’t know what’s happening. This is messy.
AI-related?
It has to be, bro. I mean, whatever they used to figure it out is probably somewhat connected to AI. It doesn’t have to be, but I’m sure it is. What’s the trade, bro? I’m already short ETH and BTC.
I think I’m just gonna hold my short, bro.
Yeah, I think so too. I’m just gonna chill because things have moved so much that I have decent entries now. They’re pretty safe. Bro, I gave people the top tick on ETH live, even before this shit happened.
Last week.
I don’t know, on those 2 videos, yeah.
Yeah.
It’s basically a top-tick entry for the short, if you took it. But, oh, man. Okay, let’s see what other people are talking about on the fucking timeline—the fucking Binance shit.
Dude, the timeline is doomer, man.
It’s so doomer. Extremely doomer. The Binance exploiter is selling UNI for ETH.
Dude, Patrick Stewart died? Come on.
Patrick Stewart died?
Yeah, he’s Spock. Like, Professor Xavier from X-Men, the old bald guy. You know who he is. Binance says user funds remain safe.
Dang, they said it’s the biggest one in crypto history. HyperDash data. Where’s HyperDash? Huh? What are you asking me to do right now? Do I have the phone, or do you—
No, I gave it to you.
Oh, okay. Let’s look. We’re talking about BTC right now. Is this the next 15 minutes, or this 15-minute candle? Is this candle gonna close green or red?
The next 15 minutes. The current 15-minute candle closes in 8 minutes.
And I’m asking, is it gonna close green or red?
I think green.
What’s this target? Oh, but this isn’t even the same. I wonder what price they’re tracking. Eight minutes? Okay, we’re picking green.
A little 2x, not bad.
Yeah, interesting.
Just saying, the floor’s immediately gonna fall out now that we bet on it.
I know, right? We’re hitting, what, 33%? It’s like, yeah, nuke it.
I’ve been looking at these things and trying to think, “Okay, what’s the best use case for the up-down markets?” Obviously, there’s a level of gambling to it, but on the 15-minute chart, you can try to determine whether that candle is gonna close up or down based on the chart. If I look at the 15-minute, we took out the last 15-minute candle’s low, right?
Mm-hmm.
If you’re trying to think of it as a trade, that’s kind of how I would use it. If you look at the 5-minute, it kind of closes as a little doji. There’s reason to believe this could be where the 15-minute chart turns around. I do think you can try to use TA to predict these with some level of accuracy. And then where it gets fun is, I don’t know, bro, you only need 17 doubles in a row to make a bunch of money.
That is true. What I’ve been doing when I trade on low timeframes is looking at the average dislocation that can happen with a lot of these charts. When you have a 5-minute candle that’s down multiple percent, you’re usually gonna get somewhat of a bounce because there are so many people. This was a 2% or 3% move in 15 minutes, which is a lot, and people are gonna take profit into these candles because a lot of people are on leverage. People are selling, and people are buying these forced sells. When you dislocate a lot from the current price, it takes a while for some of the book to fill at the new levels.
Yeah, the market’s gotta digest it.
So even if you’re on the bearish continuation, typically on super-low timeframes, there’ll be some consolidation before you see continuation.
Right now, I think this was Monday’s low. This was the previous day’s low. Or was it this one? I think it was this one, actually. This is an old marker. I think this daily candle is cooked. I think it’s gonna close bearish, and then it’s gonna close beneath the previous day’s low.
You have this period right now where it’s consolidating. So it’s like, if you’re not in a short or you haven’t exited yet, it’s, “Okay, I want to enter somewhere around the top of whatever this range is, or I want to get out when this thing breaks down and continues to the downside.” I think typically this is gonna close… The daily candle’s gonna close in about an hour.
If you think the daily continuation’s gonna happen tomorrow, when you have this daily open, it’s like, “Okay, I’m trying to get out above this daily open,” and I don’t think it’s gonna close on a high-timeframe candle back into Monday’s low. If you get something like this, that’s when I’m trying to get out, or that’s when you want to trade one of these markets, thinking it’s gonna continue down.
What’s really interesting is you can do the same type of analysis you just did on any candle. A lot of people only think of it as a daily open strategy. The whole reason Monday’s range works really well is you’re making a trade prediction for the weekly candle, right?
Yep.
Okay, if we see the low put in on Tuesday or Wednesday and we reclaim Monday’s low, that stands to reason that we might now have continuation for the rest of the week. You can do this with a four-hour candle. People always ask me, “Why is the yearly open important?” It’s for the reasons you just stated, but stretched out over a year, as opposed to just looking at the most recent daily candle.
If we’re early in the year and we take out the low of the prior year and then reclaim the yearly open, you might have just seen the low for the entire year get put in, and you can now use that to frame all of your trades going forward. So people who are always trying to say, “Okay, I want to trade more, I want to scalp,” whatever, what he just explained, you can do it for every single candle.
Yeah.
It’s its own range.
Yeah. I thought about this earlier, actually, in the video. These candles—it’s a bullish green candle—you should know generally what this looks like on lower timeframes.
Yes.
Because if you know what it looks like on lower timeframes, you can position as this is happening. I was saying, with every single candle, there are 3 things that can happen. It’s either an inside-day candle. That means it’s trading in the exact same range as the previous timeframe’s candle.
For this daily, it was this small candle right here. It could’ve either stayed inside this range and had a wick to either side, or it can close above, or it can close below. Those 3 different scenarios should inform how your bias affects the way you’re looking to trade within this candle.
Like I said earlier, it typically looks like this: if it has this wick at the bottom, it opens here. It trades beneath the open at some point, but you know it doesn’t close lower, obviously. At some point it goes back up, and then before the end of the candle it’s higher, and then it closes lower. So this is your wick, this is your wick, and this is your body of the candle, right? This is your timeframe if you go to lower timeframes.
So this is bullish. A bearish one would be the opposite. A doji to both sides is obviously it starts here, goes up, goes down, and then it stays here. So it should inform how you’re looking to take all of your trades.
So I learned that from ICT, exactly, and he calls it the Power of Three. It’s open-high-low-close, or open-low-high-close.
Mm.
It’s basically giving you that map of every single candle, because you can break down every candle exactly like that. If you think you know what’s gonna happen—“Okay, I think we’re gonna expand”—then you should, in theory, be able to go down to the low timeframe, mark out the actual open-high-low-close, and time your entry according to how you think that candle’s about to play out.
My entire Monday’s range strategy is effectively looking to long that dip below the open on the weekly candle, and then the reclaim, and expect that we’re gonna have a bullish and green week back towards Monday’s high. That’s all you’re really doing there. That’s kind of the logic behind it.
Yeah. Simply, for people who are looking for… You’re either long or you’re short. And if you’re long, you’re either buying support or you’re buying a breakout. That’s very simply what you’re doing on all timeframes, whether it’s daily, hourly, or 15-minute.
You’re either looking to buy support with a stop beneath some old level, or you’re looking to buy a breakout with a stop below whatever previous range. Those are really your 2 general ways of getting entries. For those entries, you’re looking at either high-timeframe levels or lower-timeframe price action. If you can get both of those things to align, that’s typically when you have the best setups.
If you have a monthly support level that you know is super strong and has only been tested once or hasn’t been tested yet, then you drill down to the lower timeframes and look for something like this. That’s how you get your entries. For shorts, it’s the same type of situation: you’re looking to sell resistance with a stop above, or you’re looking to get in on a breakdown to the downside with a stop above whatever previous range you’re in. That’s generally how you should be thinking about your entries and your trades, I think.
I think we just won our Polymarket bet.
Did we?
I think so.
Let’s see. Oh, it closed green. It did close green.
Just barely.
It is barely.
By the skin of its teeth, but we nailed it. Now we look real smart.
Genius. Look at this.
But no, I think that’s a very good lesson for people: you want to think of price as fractal. Sometimes you hear people talk about “fractal, fractal, fractal,” but when you understand that these patterns he just showed you are the same across all timeframes, the magic, at least for me, comes when you combine 2 timeframes together. I have a 2-timeframe rule for all trades that I take. I don’t take any trade off a singular timeframe. It’s always 2.
Yeah.
The higher timeframe, whatever it is—it could be the monthly and weekly, or it could be the four-hour if you’re a lower-timeframe trader—that’s where you’re looking for your levels, your demand, or whatever, your area where you think price is gonna get a reaction.
Once price gets to that zone, that’s when you scale down to the low timeframe, and you look for that fractal to play based on what you think’s gonna happen. If we’re at support, I can envision a few different bullish fractals for what I think is gonna happen on the low timeframe, which ultimately might just be one singular daily green candle. But when you’re on the hourly chart, it’s gonna play out relatively the same way at support or resistance every time.
When you start to get good at that pattern recognition, it helps you turn what a lot of people, I think, believe is noise on the low timeframe into, “Actually, this is exactly how I get into my setup. This is why I know where the entry is. This is why I know where the stop loss is.” It makes your trading a lot easier, because you know what you’re looking for, where, and how to define your risk. I think most people get lost by only looking at one single timeframe and trying to determine what they’re looking at.
Yeah, the 2-timeframe rule is good. I didn’t even realize that—I definitely do the exact same thing. It’s really good to have in your tool shed. But I think what people also don’t realize is you can have the advantage of having time on your side when you get more aggressive with the lower timeframes.
If you’re on some lower timeframe and you’re looking for an entry, typically it shouldn’t spend that much time in whatever area you’re at, looking for an entry, depending on if it’s daily or whatever. So you have the ability to get out even time-based if you’re wrong pretty quickly. That’s what I’ve been doing.
I mean, even Bitcoin right now, we’re both kind of like, “Okay, if this thing’s getting nuked, I want it to nuke now.”
Yeah.
The longer it hangs around here at my entry or close to my entry, the less I like it.
Right. Yeah.
But I gotta get out of here. I don’t know if you’re staying on, but dude, always a pleasure.
Yeah, man, appreciate you. I gotta get out of here too, bro. I might post another video later.
Maybe I’ll hop on to stream from my other computer.
You should. Those are good, man.
Yeah.
Those are good. People need to see the method behind the madness sometimes.
Yeah. Bro, I was at the Coinbase conference in Singapore, and one of the hosts was like, “Bro, I didn’t know you could actually trade. I didn’t know you actually knew what you were talking about.”
Oh, fuck.
They were asking me questions, like explaining the positions. I thought it was hilarious.
They don’t know about Coin-Zim, bro. They don’t know.
They don’t. They don’t.
They don’t know, man.
Oh, it’s okay, buddy.
Okay. All right, G. Good seeing you, man.
All right, brother. Later.
Talk later. Bye.
Peace. Yo, what’s good, chat? It’s not a great day. Not a great day. Thank you. How was that? It was good? That was good?
The Binance exploiter is selling LINK, UNI, PEPE, and… Bro, I think this shit is about to nuke. I think everything is about to nuke. The good thing is we’ll get to scoop stuff at low prices. This is the good thing.
Mayne’s always the best. “What’s good, twin? We live to see another day, and that was astronomical.” Thank you. W Mayne. It’s a great day for bears. This is true. I hope some of you guys de-risked some shit, at least.
Crypto is hard, bro. You have to flip biases so quickly, and if you don’t, you get caught off guard. Okay, so Cairo. Let’s see what Cairo just talked about. This is good. Dang. Five billion left Binance hot wallets in under an hour today across Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Tron.
“How it started: 4:20 p.m. ET. An outside wallet attached EIP-7702 code to a Binance Ethereum hot wallet. Three minutes later, it swept 63 tokens out in one transaction, including $1.6 billion USDT and 67K ETH. A second Binance hot wallet sent 28K ETH to the same address, signed with its own key, in the same few minutes. 80,270 BTC and $613 million USDT on Tron also moved to new wallets.”
“Where it stands: Tether and Circle have frozen about $2 billion. Nothing has gone to Tornado Cash. About $718 million in ETH and about $500 million in USDT are still free to move, and 17,270 BTC sits untouched.”
Wow, $5 billion. Yeah, 2% of PEPE. He has 2% of PEPE? Yeah, 49. And he’s selling. That’s unfortunate.
Update, 5:52 p.m.: $5.78 billion has now left Binance. Update, 6:40. Bro, this is crazy. How? How? Damn. Crazy day.
It says, “Yes, Binance has the funds to recover this loss, but if they can get hacked, everyone can get hacked.” That is true. “It’s tiresome and really not a good image for this industry.” Oh, man. Yeah, it should be super bullish for Hyperliquid, though. Shout-out Raph. Raph’s my number-one supporter. Raph holding it down.
Yeah, I don’t think this shit is done yet. Even without the hack, I don’t think this shit is done yet. I think it was going to happen regardless, to be honest. Oh, man. PEPE hit an all-time high, too. Y’all see me looking under the light? Kat, look at this. Look at this tweet.
What?
What the fuck, bro? That’s crazy. Oh, man. Am I still shorting? Yeah, I’m short Bitcoin and ETH. I’m also short some stocks.
I haven’t sold all my coins yet, which is unfortunate because I sold some, but I didn’t sell everything. So I’m still losing money right now, unfortunately. Yeah, I think I might sell some shit after this, to be honest. Am I short Anthem? No, I’m not short Anthem. No, I’m not hacked. I haven’t sold any Anthem.
Yeah, I think the timing should be good, though. What I’m thinking right now is the sell-off for majors is going to mean a sell-off for alts, too. Then you’ll have a situation where on-chain isn’t obviously as bullish as it was before. If you can focus a lot of attention on one thing all at the same time, you can get a concentrated bid on things.
Yeah, no problem, Merc. Somebody said, “As far as I understand, the entire Binance infrastructure is fucked now. Deposit wallets keep sending funds to the hacked hot wallet, which is getting drained by the hacker.” What? What? What?
The Binance hacker said he deposited the USDT and borrowed ETH against it. I wonder if there are people with really good models that they aren’t sharing with people. You ever think about that, Kat?
Say it again?
I wonder if there are models out there, outside of the Claude and OpenAI ones, or some version of those out in the wild, that people have figured out a way to make better and are just using them.
Internal models?
Yeah, shadow labs. Because think about how much that would be worth if you could figure it out and not be—
It’s also—
—watched by everybody.
It would probably be government spending. You just tied $100 billion into the government.
Yeah, that’s CIA, FBI, all that shit is worth—
NSA budget. NSA budget.
Yeah, NSA budget, bro.
They probably cloned it. We just don’t know.
Maybe I am a clone, bro. Maybe I’m the clone. Sisyphus says, “Binance can probably cover the amount of lost funds, so I wouldn’t go crazy over solvency.” Yeah. I mean, unless they lose everything.
“I believe this is a canary for what will happen to crypto more broadly. Anything exploitable will be exploited with LLMs this advanced being universally available.” This is my issue with everything right now. LLMs getting this good only happens one time, and this period where we don’t know what they can hack or what’s going to get hacked only happens once. That’s the max uncertainty, I think.
And it’s not just crypto, it’s everything. Crypto is just riskier because you can take the funds directly.
Holy shit. PEPE funding on Hyperliquid is annualized at -408%.
Yeah. I’m sure people are short as fuck PEPE. I mean, he has 2% of the supply?
2%, 40 million. Well, it was 40 million.
Bro, it’s not even down that much. What? It’s not even down that much. But it doesn’t even feel like people are panicking, to be honest. It feels like people are really just chilling. It’s only down 10%.
Yeah.
This is interesting. I don’t think tomorrow’s going to be good.
Selling the Bitcoin won’t be easy. There’s nowhere to offload that much legally. You’re not going to offload 30 stack of it.
He’s not washing it?
I don’t know where you’d be able to pay to wash that much. America’s different, but…
All the boomers who— Can you move the chat a little bit to the left?
Yeah, I’m working on it.
Oh, awesome. Freezing $2.6 billion that fast is pretty sick, though.
I moved it so it’s easier for you to see. Yeah, you got it. Good job. Thank you.
Coinbase Earn was cool. I asked Brian some questions. What did I ask him? I asked him about Deribit. They bought Deribit, which is the biggest options protocol, or options exchange, in crypto. They’re using it to integrate perps and options, and that’s going to be their Coinbase Pro product. They’re rolling it out to U.S. users soon, which is pretty cool.
I asked him about the regulatory work they do. They’re investing in consumer marketing and focusing on their retail customers. They said they’re focusing on that more now, but they were proud of the work they did after FTX and while FTX was happening, because SBF gave D.C. a really bad taste in its mouth around crypto. They had to do a lot of work to make sure crypto didn’t get regulated out of existence. He’s proud of that, but they’re also focusing on consumers and regulatory work.
Then I asked him how they differentiate as a verticalized exchange or company, because they have spot trading, predictions, perps, options, Coinbase Custody, and institutional stuff. I asked how they have an advantage over other companies trying to do the same. Essentially, he said a lot of the older banks are too antiquated, and they don’t move fast with the agentic trading or the on-chain stuff they’re doing with Base.
He also said they’re at the forefront of moving fast, tech-wise, as a fintech, and they have advantages other companies don’t have. He said they’re trying to do everything well, but they have a unique product offering. I think those are the 3 questions I asked him.
But yeah, it’s holding up pretty well, to be honest. This is a crazy day, bro. What is happening? Damn. What’s my FOMO account? I don’t have a FOMO account. Can I do a Discord stream soon? Yeah, I can do that. Does he use phone motor trade? Thoughts on NEAR?
10/10 was nuts. Thoughts on NEAR? I can talk about NEAR. NEAR looks like it’s breaking down from this consolidation. It had a pretty good breakout. I think we first went long NEAR around 1.7. It was around here. It was a decent little pop. It came back, retested the same spot, and had another pop. That’s been one of the best-performing alts, to be honest.
I think the narrative around NEAR is good. The intent stuff is definitely real and solid. The AI agent narrative is also good, and the privacy programmability narrative is pretty good too. But I’m in the camp that majors are going to sell off, and if majors are going to sell off, I think alts are also going to sell off. You can kind of see this breakdown happening now.
This is a good place to get out if you were long into here, because this is your first real breakdown candle from this range, and it’s been trading in this range for a while. So it’s a decent place to de-risk after, like, 40 days. I think it’s probably going to come back somewhere into here, probably around 3, like 2.5. Something like this, probably.
Shit’s fucking gross, bro. Why are people saying, “I wish it would’ve dipped further”? Bro, it’s only been an hour. This shit’s not done. I would love to be bullish right now. It would be so sick if I thought this was a great spot to just slam shit. That would be a great spot. Bro, like, 6 billion? What is happening? 6B is crazy.
Nah, I haven’t read the Discord recently. Did you guys watch the two videos I posted? I’m not ignoring any questions, bro. Damn. Did y’all watch the two videos I posted? Who’s been posting tweets on my account? Production’s posting tweets on my account. We have the clipping engine on lock.
“Zee, tweet out a cute animal and give the trenches a runner.” Bro, I don’t think y’all want me to do that right now. “You love both of the videos. Keep doing them.” Y’all keep doing them, and I’ll keep doing them. What happened to the ants on Twitter? The ants on Twitter I got from this dude, and he somehow got it back. I’ve been trying to get it back from him again, but I don’t have access to it right now.
How am I doing? I’m doing all right, you know. I’m doing okay. Crazy, right? What is my regular day? Lately, I’ve been spending a lot of time looking at the market, but a regular day… Damn, Micron under 900. My days are pretty chill. How much did I lose today? Just know it’s not a small amount. I’m up on my shorts, though, so, yeah. It’s fine. Things could be worse. I have more cash than I did a week or so ago, so it’s fine.
I hope you guys watch those videos. I actually laid out pretty clearly what’s going to happen this week in both of them—the top and this going on. Pretty accurately, I will say. I hope they helped some people. It’s unfortunate that this is the price action we currently have, but it is what it is, man. It is what it is. I’m fucking sleepy, bro.
This is true: Basically, good companies that beat earnings but have mixed guidance are down way more than coins that were hacked and are being directly sold on the open market in the largest hack in history. I’m not sure if it’s just complacency. That’s what I’m thinking it is, and I think the real selling just hasn’t really happened yet. Or maybe people just genuinely don’t have that many coins to sell. Maybe people just aren’t holding PEPE, and the people who are holding it just don’t really care. I’m not sure. It’s crazy to me that this isn’t down a lot more. It’s only down like 10%, and it’s bouncing pretty well, to be honest.
That’s pretty crazy. Or we’re just in the malaise period where you see low volatility. I hate that shit, bro. I hate that shit. Volatility I can trade. Up or down, I don’t really care. If it’s trending up or breaking down, as long as it’s moving, I can trade it. But when it starts doing the shit that’s like… When it starts doing shit like this for weeks and weeks and months, nah, bro, I can’t do anything with this. How am I going to make money off this? I can’t make money off this. These are daily candles, bro. 1% daily candles for months? No. I don’t want that. The volatility I can do. I can do volatility. So this is definitely not the worst, for sure.
Oh, damn, daily close soon. We’re going to get the daily close soon. There are too many tweets like this. They’ve been doing this all week, bro. “Bitcoin’s at 80K and everything’s getting smashed. Bitcoin’s at 80K, everything’s terrible. Bitcoin’s at 80K. Bitcoin down 3% after the biggest hack in history.” Bro, come on, this market is ready for the bull. Bro, it’s been an hour. It’s only been an hour, and this shit is below the— Okay. All right, man.
No, I’m not. Only two have been frozen, which is two or three, yeah. It’s concerning because this is the biggest exchange. The biggest exchange can get hacked. What can’t get hacked? Not great, bro. Even Elon’s tweeting about it. What the hell?
How are we feeling, chat? Am I going to play the new WoW expansion? Actually, I think so. I think I am. Y’all going to play it? Yeah? I think I am, bro. I used to love WoW back in the day. My main was an ice mage, a troll ice mage. I had an undead rogue, a tauren shaman, an undead warlock, and a paladin. I had a druid, too. My WoW characters were tough, I’m not gonna lie. I played hella World of Warcraft. Hella World of Warcraft.
“Paper trade positioning is alpha.” Yo, it is. That’s a good leak. You know some shit, bro. It’s actually a lot of alpha. A lot. Did they really predict Black October? Production will DM you after the show. Yeah. What is this day, bro? What’s happening?
Big spot on NQ. Huge spot on NQ. What’s today, Friday? Friday’s going to be big. All right, bros—and females, and lads and lasses—I think I’m gonna get out of here. Dario JPEG, what’s your @? I’ll follow you back, bro. I don’t see your name. “Sunsets blood.” You said what? Sunsets and what? “Sunsets red blood.” Red blood. Literally red blood. There we go. Dario187x. Oh, I got you. You ready? Yeah. Peace out one more time. Peace out. Love you. Later.