Peter Diamandis × Salim Ismail × Dave Blundin × Alexander Wissner-Gross × Emad Mostaque

Sam Altman's retreat from step-function singularity claims highlights institutional inertia, model readiness, and competing narratives around AI timelines.Chinese open-weight models now approach frontier performance at dramatically lower cost, while agent swarms and Waymo's 83% hardware reduction point toward vertical integration and intensifying pressure on US labs, infrastructure, and regulation.

张小珺 × 刘洺堉

Cosmos 3将语言、视频、音频与action统一为omni世界模型，并扩展至“万卡级”GPU、彻底开源。刘洺堉判断模型能力终将收敛，英伟达的护城河转向GPU、Thor、Isaac Sim及生态整合，而非独占SOTA。physical AI的ChatGPT moment或在今年或明年到来，但运营成本、泛化和商业落地仍是关键变量。

José × Andrew Kang

Humanoid robotics may be approaching the pre-ChatGPT phase of AI, with $50,000 robots requiring only 20,000 units for $1B revenue and a projected tens-of-billions industry within two to four years.Robo Strategy (NASDAQ: BOT) seeks to challenge SoftBank through public markets, favoring vertically integrated players with embodiment-specific data; US restrictions on Chinese robots could help, while robotics data businesses face a two-to-five-year durability test.

王钦文 × 王煜全

王煜全判断AI泡沫将在2029年出现，robotaxi与AI编程两条万亿美元赛道届时将更清晰。特斯拉凭借超过100万辆FSD车辆持续采集数据，或在订阅制出行终局领先，华为可能是中国唯一的挑战者。数字货币与证券数字货币化可能放大危机，而手机端行为智能和中国开源模型出海建云构成值得跟踪的后续变量。

曹旭东 × 程曼祺

曹旭东判断智驾竞争窗口正在关闭，Momenta要靠规模、数据和利润形成飞轮，以智驾业务养机器人，押注2030年前后的家庭机器人拐点。节目也厘清Robo业务排序，以及FSD入华和大模型估值背后的判断。

李翔 × 李丰 × 刘鹏琦 × 颜黔杭

上半年一级市场由FOMO、分化和估值前置主导，OpenClaw把agent推向“雇数字员工”。任务轨迹与harness engineering可能在agent层沉淀数据飞轮，Anthropic押注coding，传闻ARR达160亿美元、年终可能盈亏平衡。下半年看真实数据闭环与订单鲁棒性；上市潮若失守预期，或触发一二级倒挂后的“大冷静期”。

卫诗婕 × 赵越

仙工的差异化信号，是覆盖两千多种机型、四百多种传感器并拥有数万台装机的控制器，掌握真实、对齐且持续产生的机器数据入口。赵越更看好先用叉车等垂类专家验证To B的ROI，而非押注全能人形大脑；若端侧模型能理解协议并生成控制能力，现有工具链优势仍可能被抹平。

Ansem × FaZe Banks × Andrew Kang × Owen Lynch

SpaceX rose from $135 to $225 within days, while pre-listing Hyperliquid volume reportedly reached about $1 billion daily, supporting its pre-IPO market thesis.Ansem expects attention to rotate toward HYPE and later anticipated Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, while robotics remains a timing bet: billions of robots may wait until the early 2030s and RoboStrategy’s NAV can lag private rounds.

Ansem × FaZe Banks × Jesse

Kevin frames robotics as a potential $60T labor-automation market versus roughly $200B in private-industry value.A $50K robot replacing three shifts at Walmart and Amazon illustrates $50B in revenue.Robo Strategy seeks MicroStrategy-like access to private robotics, while Figure AI’s livestream suggests accelerating adoption; commercialization speed, valuations, governance, and human-level distribution and taste remain unresolved.

Avi Felman × Andrew Kang × Jonah Van Bourg

Andrew Kang sees private robotics as crypto in 2014–2015, with market capitalization rising from $20B to $100–150B and potentially 100x upside toward a tens-of-trillions destination.Robo Strategy applies MicroStrategy’s accretive issuance model to private robotics, while a roughly one-year path from GPT-3 to GPT-5-level robotics, rising VC interest and severe failure risk make execution, NAV premiums and valuation marks the key watchpoints.